Latest news with #UHERO
Yahoo
22-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Owners claim Maui residents can't afford converted vacation rentals, UH study says otherwise
Owners and managers of Maui short-term vacation rentals have argued during two days of public hearings that local residents cannot afford the rent if 6, 100 units are converted into long-term housing, as proposed by Mayor Richard Bissen. Residents who also testified before the Maui County Council last week in support of Bill 9 repeatedly have called the claim offensive. An economic analysis by the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization backs up the residents' testimony. The analysis shows that over 11, 600 Maui households—or 21 % of all households on the island—already use 30 % of their incomes to pay for housing and could afford to move into converted units because the owners would see their tax rate fall to Maui County's lowest rate as the value of their homes continues to drop. The pool of Maui residents already paying even more of their incomes for housing is even greater. An additional 15, 500 Maui households use 30 % to 50 % of their incomes toward housing, according to the UHERO analysis, and they also could afford to rent converted vacation rentals, meaning long-term housing for a total of over 27, 100 Maui households. Matt Jachowski, one of Bissen's executive assistants, told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser, 'Many of our households already spend that range of money on housing.' Some '27 % of all renters in the county are already cost-burdened, ' Jachowski said. 'So it's obtainable.' The Maui County Council's Housing and Land Use Committee will have to vet the competing claims when it resumes hearings all day Monday and again Tuesday night. All nine members of the Council serve on the committee, so the committee vote on Bill 9 will provide a strong indicator of how the full Council will act on the measure. If approved, Bill 9 would take effect in West Maui by July 1, 2028. The units in question represent less than half of Maui's estimated 13, 000 legal short-term vacation rentals, and Bissen previously told the Star-Advertiser that tourists remain welcome on Maui. Bissen said he wants to free up housing for local residents and bring better balance to the proportion of vacation rentals on Maui, which has more short-term vacation rentals than even Oahu. On Maui, temporary vacation rentals make up 21 % of the housing inventory. 'Maui is this complete outlier in how many TVRs we have, ' said Jachowski, noting the figure is only 3 % for London, which has the highest percentage of housing dedicated to transient vacation rentals compared to Los Angeles, Boston and Barcelona. UHERO ALSO reported that the total monthly cost of housing for Maui residents to move into a converted short-term vacation rental also would fall, from $5, 829 to $4, 601, because of declining property values and taxes. Maui County witnessed eight consecutive years of increased condo sales prices, from $402, 000 in 2016 to $900, 500 in 2024. But prices dropped for the first time since 2016 after Bissen introduced Bill 9. In the first five months of 2025, the average sales price has fallen from $900, 500 to $760, 000. Several owners of short-term rentals and their property managers have testified that no one wants to buy on Maui since Bill 9 was introduced, especially potential out-of-state investors who would be barred from renting them to tourists for their vacations. Owners' monthly cost for a vacation rental, including mortgage, insurance, association fees and other expenses, were running at $5, 800 per month, Jachowski said. Now, with Bill 9 on the table, the costs have fallen to $4, 601 per month, putting the lower price within reach of the 27, 100 Maui residents who already pay that much, he said. UHERO looked at other cities that now restrict 1 % of their short-term vacation rentals and found that housing prices and rents fell by 4 % in Los Angeles and London and by lesser amounts in Barcelona and Boston. Bill 9 would 'revert ' all apartment district properties to long-term residential use and remove the exception for transient vacation rental units built or approved before 1989. For Maui residents who can afford to buy one of the converted units, the tax rates would plummet from $12.50 per $1, 000 of value to just $5 for an owner-occupied unit, Jachowski said. BISSEN spokesperson Laksmi Abraham acknowledged UHERO's expectation of job losses in Maui's short-term vacation rental industry but said there will still be a need for workers in the nearly 9, 000 remaining vacation rentals, including plumbers, electricians and others to work on the units that convert to long-term housing. Short-term rentals average only 53 % occupancy annually, and Abraham said those that remain for tourists 'will see an uptick in their occupancy and they're still going to need somebody to manage a lot of these units. There will be impact, but the transition won't be as drastic as UHERO paints it to be.' At the same time, Ja chow ski noted that UHERO said that as the 'affordability of housing improves, housing costs are also going down, and that's important.' Maui short-term vacation rental owners and their property managers also have repeatedly argued that local residents do not want to live in their one-and two-bedroom units—a claim residents also called offensive. Data compiled in the aftermath of the Aug. 8, 2023, wildfire that destroyed 3, 500 homes in Lahaina backs up local renters. Many of them have scrambled over the last two years to find and afford increasingly expensive long-term housing. Before the disaster, many survivors were living in large multigenerational homes that were destroyed. Since then, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Council for Native Hawaiian Advancement had the highest demand for one-and two-bedroom units as individual, smaller family units that used to live in multigenerational homes searched for housing for themselves, Jachowski said. 'The data clearly shows we have a lot of households that are smaller and could benefit from smaller homes, ' he said. IN 2024, Gov. Josh Green signed Senate Bill 2919 into law clarifying that each county has the authority to determine what to do with transient vacation rentals as the state faced an ongoing shortage of 50, 000 homes. Bissen was the first to respond with Bill 9. Bissen and Green have repeatedly said Maui and the state cannot build their way out of the lack of housing. To them, converting vacation rentals into long-term housing represents the most logical path forward. State Rep. Luke Evslin (D, Wailua-Lihue ), who chairs the House Committee on Housing, has been working on ideas ahead of the next legislative session to create more housing but said the counties now control the future of their own short-term vacation rentals. 'We've done all we can do on the short-term vacation issue, ' Evslin said. 'At this point, it's up to them.' Several members of the Honolulu City Council's Housing, Homelessness and Parks Committee did not respond to Star-Advertiser requests for comment on what they might do about converting Oahu's short-term vacation rentals. Matt Weyer, who serves on the housing committee, said he's more interested in cracking down on the estimated 118 to 120 illegal short-term rental units in his district, especially in residential and rural areas around Turtle Bay Resort. Weyer's Council district stretches across the North Shore down to the upper Windward side and as far south as Mililani. In the North Shore alone, Weyer said, there are about 262 legal short-term rentals, and he has not heard an outcry from residents to convert them into long-term housing. 'I wouldn't say phasing them out would solve the problems we're facing, ' he said. 'We're looking at how we can best target illegal vacation rentals … by enforcing the existing laws. That's the struggle. We want to ensure that folks that are doing it illegally are doing it legally. That really creates the biggest impact.' U.S. Rep. Jill Tokuda, whose district includes rural Oahu and the neighbor islands, said that converting Maui's 6, 100 short-term vacation rentals into long-term housing might help the island's housing shortage and stem the exodus of local residents to the mainland. 'We've got to do something, ' Tokuda said. 'It's going to require some bold, pretty bold action to keep people here and to free up available units for local families. If not, they're going to keep leaving.'
Yahoo
27-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Barriers to physical, mental health care persist in Hawaii, survey finds
Three years since surveys began, the University of Hawaii has found that the state's numerous health care challenges continue to grow, especially for those living in poverty. The latest University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization Public Health Report found there to still be a high mental health burden, particularly among young adults, continued barriers to health care, and persistent struggles obtaining food. While each category result tells its own story, according to UHERO research economist Daniela Bond-Smith, the findings together 'show a system under pressure.' Some key findings from the report :—Overall health status : A lower number of adults, 40 %, rated their health as excellent or very good in December, down from 44 % in June 2023. Among Native Hawaiian /Pacific Islanders, excellent /good ratings dropped to 23 %, compared with 40 %, in just 18 months.—Mental health burden : Among those surveyed, 31 % reported symptoms of depression, and 4 % reported symptoms of severe depression. Rates were highest among those ages 18 to 34, and NHPI, Filipino and low-income groups. Of low-income respondents, 10 % reported severe depressive symptoms.—Barriers to mental health care : A higher proportion of adults reported missing needed mental health care—22 % in 2024 compared with 5 % in 2023. The rising trend was consistent across all racial and income groups.—Food insecurity continued : Nearly 30 % of adults reported low or very low food security, or having enough food to meet basic nutritional needs. Rates are higher among NHPI, Filipino and low-income groups.—Barriers to health care : Many reported barriers to physical health care, with 79 % citing the lack of providers available and 49 % citing the cost. For mental health care, 69 % reported being unable to get therapy or counseling, 50 % were unable to access psychiatrists and 31 % were unable to get urgent mental care services. The UHERO Rapid Survey is a comprehensive, statewide health data monitoring project that follows a cohort of more than 2, 000 adult residents over time to help inform public policy. It was initially launched in 2022 to provide data during the COVID-19 public health emergency, and has since evolved into one of Hawaii's largest surveys tracking health equity. The first report, published in June 2022, focused on the health effects and views of COVID-19 in Hawaii, while the second one, in January 2023, focused on long COVID and on employment and economic security. A third report in July 2023 examined access to food and stable housing as core determinants of health. The fourth report, examines mental health, access to health care and food security among various age and ethnic groups. There is some lag time, as the fourth report, published May 21, reflects data collected between March and December 2024. For self-reported health status, UHERO found significant disparities across ethnic groups, with NHPIs and Filipinos reporting higher rates of poor and fair health compared with their white and other Asian counterparts. Primary barriers to getting physical health care include the unavailability or limited hours of appointments, high out-of-pocket costs and insurance coverage. Those below the poverty line had a harder time getting dental care due to out-of-pocket costs without insurance. For some the barriers were transportation-related—the provider was either too far away or there were not enough suitable ways to travel to the appointment. Difficulty accessing specialist services, in particular, were reported by 61 % of respondents, up from 37 % in 2023. 'The UHERO Rapid Health Survey reveals widening disparities in health, access to care, and basic needs like food and housing—particularly among Native Hawaiian, Pacific Islander, Filipino, Hispanic, and low-income communities, ' said the authors in the report. 'These inequities are not isolated ; they stem from systemic barriers that demand coordinated, equity-driven action.' They continued, 'Addressing them requires targeted investments in community-based mental health services, culturally competent healthcare providers, and expanded access to both primary and dental care—especially in underserved rural and outer islands.' But the state must also tackle the structural roots of health disparities by investing in affordable housing, strengthening local food systems and creating pathways to stable employment UHERO's findings are available online via an interactive. Health declines and disparities—There was a decline in those rating their overall health as excellent /very good (40 % in December versus 44 % in June 2023 ).—Participants across all racial groups reported an increase in delayed or forgone physical health care in the past year and a half, but substantially higher rates were reported among poverty /ALICE status respondents. Hispanics, Blacks and Native Americans reported the highest level and largest increase in health care access issues.—Access to specialists generally worsened over the past 1-1 /2 years for all age groups, ranging between 60 % for people age 18-34 and 69 % for people ages 65 and over.—Over the past 2-1 /2 years, nearly 1 in 3 adults in Hawaii have reported symptoms of depression. In December, 27 % of respondents reported depressive symptoms, while 4 % reported highly depressive symptoms. Rates were highest among ages 18-34, Native Hawaiian /Pacific Islander, Filipino and low-income groups.—Nearly 30 % of adults reported low /very low food security in 2024. NHPI, Filipino, Hispanic, Black and Native American respondents reported higher-than-average rates of food insecurity. Source : University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization
Travel Weekly
27-05-2025
- Business
- Travel Weekly
Mild recession in the forecast for Hawaii
Christine Hitt The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) has released its latest forecast, and the economic outlook is grim. 'The Hawaii outlook has deteriorated since the time of our last report,' the report states. 'This is primarily due to actual and threatened U.S. tariff hikes that are much larger than anticipated, as well as adverse effects on increased federal policy uncertainty around trade, immigration, spending and tax cuts, and other areas.' UHERO believes the local economy will fall into a mild recession by the end of the year. In a video discussing the report's findings, UHERO assistant professor Steven Bond-Smith said, 'GDP growth will slow in both the U.S. and Hawaii, but with Hawaii's already slow growth rate, the slowdown tips us into a recession.' Bond-Smith goes on to say tourism is among the sectors under stress as 'uncertainty remains elevated.' According to the report, 'the most damaging effect on Hawaii of President Trump's aggressive tariff policies may well be to the visitor industry. This will be felt through several channels: the adverse impact of high tariffs on major source country economies, the discouraging effects of uncertain international visitor regulations and enforcement and avoidance by travelers who are upset by these and other administration policies.' So far this year, the Japan market is still sluggish. Canadian visitors to the U.S. have dropped significantly. With that said, Hawaii started the year positively, with the statewide visitor census up 2% in the first two months of the year compared to last year. However, UHERO calls this the 'calm before the storm,' and it has reduced its tourism outlook for 2025-2026 significantly. 'We now expect arrivals to fall 4% over the next two years, a drop of 400,000 visitors,' the report said. 'Over 2025-2027 the pace of decline will be the biggest on the international front, with Japanese arrivals falling by more than 6% this year, before stabilizing in 2026. … U.S. arrivals will decline 3% by 2026, with downside risk should a recession develop. Total visitor arrivals will not reclaim their 2024 level until 2028.'
Yahoo
15-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Hawaii home affordability worsens despite condo price drop
HONOLULU (KHON2) — Buying and renting homes in Hawaii continues to be a challenge for most residents, according to the latest Housing Factbook released by the University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO). Police searching for suspects in armed home invasion in Nuuanu Economists say fewer than 25% of households earn enough to afford a single-family home in the state, underscoring ongoing concerns about housing condominium prices have dipped slightly, experts warn that the overall outlook remains troubling. 'The bad news hidden within that good news is part of that is this mortgage-era home insurance crisis,' said UHERO economist Justin Tyndall. 'The pullback of insurers unwilling to provide insurance to condos means a lot of people can't qualify for a mortgage, which has zapped some demand and is partially why prices have gone down.' Download the free KHON2 app for iOS or Android to stay informed on the latest news Meanwhile, UHERO reports that rents continue to rise across the state, though at a slower pace than in previous years. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
09-05-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Mild recession forecast for Hawaii economy
University of Hawaii economists expect the state economy to begin gradually contracting later this year due to federal policy impacts hurting tourism, employment and personal income. The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization forecasts a mild state recession to occur before the end of 2025 and stretch into 2026, according to a report released publicly today. UHERO's report said global tariffs being imposed by President Donald Trump will have knock-on effects that depress U.S. and international tourism to Hawaii while federal spending and job cuts in the state also ding the local economy. 'Hawaii's economic outlook has taken a decisive turn for the worse, as expansive federal policy shifts look poised to tip the local economy into a mild recession, ' the report said. The report also warned that the anticipated economic decline in Hawaii could be worse. 'Risks remain exceptionally large : sustained tariffs, delayed policy reversals, and global backlash to U.S. actions could deepen the downturn, ' UHERO said in its forecast. A month before Trump took office in January, UHERO had forecast that Hawaii's economy, after accounting for inflation, would grow by 2.9 % this year and then 2.5 % in 2026. The new report revised those figures to 1.1 % growth this year followed by a 0.3 % decline in 2026. A 0.3 % dip represents a loss of $313 million in produced goods and services after accounting for inflation in Hawaii's estimated $117 billion economy. UHERO also forecasts that the number of people with jobs statewide will fall by 5, 100 in 2026, representing a 0.8 % decline that boosts Hawaii's unemployment rate to 3.6 % in 2026 from a projected 3.1 % this year. For the first three months of this year, the unemployment rate has been a hair under 3 %. Personal income is expected to dip 0.2 % in 2026 after accounting for inflation, representing a loss of about $177 million in household earnings. If Hawaii's economy shrinks in 2026, it would be the second annual decline in six years but much lighter than the crushing 10.4 % downturn in 2020 brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of the expected coming loss in the economy is attributed to what had already been a weakening in tourism before dramatic changes in federal policy were announced. UHERO said impacts from new federal policies should further hurt the biggest driver in the local economy. The report forecasts that the number of visitors arriving by plane will decline by 2.2 % this year to 9.47 million, and then by 1.9 % in 2026 to 9.29 million. 'Although not everyone is employed in tourism, tourism flows throughout our economy, through secondary and flow-through effects, ' Steven Bond-Smith, one of several UHERO economists who contributed to the report, said Thursday during a news conference. 'So people are affected by that slowdown in tourism even if they're not directly employed in the tourism sector.' Bond-Smith also said negative impacts on the local economy are coming from federal spending and job cuts locally. 'So that creates some slowing in the economy as well, ' he said. Peter Fuleky, another UHERO economist and report author, added that businesses and consumers in Hawaii face uncertainties that can lead to them pulling back on spending, contributing to a broad economic downturn. 'So the reaction typically to uncertainty is caution, ' he said. 'Caution means retrenchment of consumption … and that has macroeconomic effects for everyone, right ?' UHERO's forecast anticipates the federal government backing off from extremely high tariffs Trump announced for many countries April 2 and then delayed for 90 days while leaving in place a 10 % tariff on imports from countries except for China, where a 145 % tariff exists. Fuleky said that even the 10 % tariff rate globally represents a significant increase that will be a drag on the U.S. economy and produce negative impacts on Hawaii's economy. One bright spot noted in the forecast is the strength of the local construction industry. Some materials are expected to cost more because of tariffs, but Justin Tyndall, another UHERO economist and report author, said he does not expect any freezes on big projects that include Pearl Harbor shipyard improvements, state government work and housing towers. 'I think generally the construction outlook looks pretty stable and unaffected by federal policy, ' he said. 'In the longer term if we do enter a sustained economic downturn, inevitably there'll be cutbacks everywhere, potentially including (construction ).' UHERO's report forecasts that Hawaii's economy will rebound in 2027 with 0.9 % growth.
