Mild recession in the forecast for Hawaii
Christine Hitt
The University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization (UHERO) has released its latest forecast, and the economic outlook is grim.
'The Hawaii outlook has deteriorated since the time of our last report,' the report states. 'This is primarily due to actual and threatened U.S. tariff hikes that are much larger than anticipated, as well as adverse effects on increased federal policy uncertainty around trade, immigration, spending and tax cuts, and other areas.'
UHERO believes the local economy will fall into a mild recession by the end of the year.
In a video discussing the report's findings, UHERO assistant professor Steven Bond-Smith said, 'GDP growth will slow in both the U.S. and Hawaii, but with Hawaii's already slow growth rate, the slowdown tips us into a recession.'
Bond-Smith goes on to say tourism is among the sectors under stress as 'uncertainty remains elevated.'
According to the report, 'the most damaging effect on Hawaii of President Trump's aggressive tariff policies may well be to the visitor industry. This will be felt through several channels: the adverse impact of high tariffs on major source country economies, the discouraging effects of uncertain international visitor regulations and enforcement and avoidance by travelers who are upset by these and other administration policies.'
So far this year, the Japan market is still sluggish. Canadian visitors to the U.S. have dropped significantly. With that said, Hawaii started the year positively, with the statewide visitor census up 2% in the first two months of the year compared to last year.
However, UHERO calls this the 'calm before the storm,' and it has reduced its tourism outlook for 2025-2026 significantly.
'We now expect arrivals to fall 4% over the next two years, a drop of 400,000 visitors,' the report said.
'Over 2025-2027 the pace of decline will be the biggest on the international front, with Japanese arrivals falling by more than 6% this year, before stabilizing in 2026. … U.S. arrivals will decline 3% by 2026, with downside risk should a recession develop. Total visitor arrivals will not reclaim their 2024 level until 2028.'
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Forbes
10 minutes ago
- Forbes
Why We Need Black Voices In Tech
Leon Burns III Photo Credit: Leon Burns III As a young Black executive in tech, Leon Burns III is making it his mission to bridge the gap between underserved communities and opportunities in STEM. In the past year, he has launched and funded 11 STEM initiatives for Black students, created a $100,000 scholarship for HBCU business and management information systems (MIS) majors at his alma mater -- historically Black Hampton University -- and provided laptops to graduating high school girls through nonprofit partnerships. Why is Burns, who is the president and CEO of Open Technology Group (OTG), doing all of this work? According to the McKinsey Institute for Economic Mobility, whereas Black people make up 14% of the workforce in the U.S., they only account for 8% of employees in tech jobs. And their representation is even smaller among executives. According to Burns, the 'gap stems from a lack of exposure, limited investment in tech programs in our communities, and minimal access to mentors who reflect us.' Burns himself was afforded exposure to tech from an early age, which was unique compared to many of his peers. That early start made a lasting impact on him, and, as he shared, 'I have always felt a responsibility to give back and open doors for others. He added, 'With tech evolving rapidly, especially in areas like AI, there is a real fear that we will be left behind if we do not act now. That sense of urgency is what fuels my commitment to helping others see that they, too, can thrive in this field.' Currently, about ten HBCUs offer formal business analytics programs. From Burns' perspective, 'This is a major gap, especially as analytics increasingly drive decisions in business and across society.' He further explained, 'The problem is that African Americans and other minorities are often left out of the equation when these algorithms and tools are being developed. Without diverse input, the data and the decisions that follow become dangerously skewed.' Diversity in AI getty Organizational behaviorist Karim Ginena confirms Burns' thoughts, noting that both women and people of color are underrepresented in AI output in terms of answers and images. In an interview with Knowledge at Wharton, he stated, "If these issues of bias are left unaddressed, they can perpetuate unfairness in society at a very high rate. We're not just talking about your prototypical kind of bias. We're talking at an exponential rate with these automated decision systems, which is why they can be very dangerous.' According to Burns, 'My scholarship supports 20 students who major in business and minor in MIS, with a focus on those interested in business analytics careers. The goal is to build interest, expand access. This is about sparking long-term change that ensures our voices and perspectives are part of the data shaping the future.' He added, 'At OTG, I have led initiatives to close the pay gap for women in tech, launched a company-wide certification program to help our team overcome societal barriers to advancement, and created a resume revamp program to support employees pursuing internal promotions and government opportunities.' As an HBCU graduate, it was never enough for Burns to simply 'be in the tech space.' It has always been just as important to 'create real pathways for others to grow and lead in it as well.' While a student at Hampton, he learned that people thrive when they feel 'seen, supported, and included in the culture.' That lesson has shaped his leadership. For Burns, 'inclusivity and transparency' are the principles on which he has built his role as CEO. Burns is also focused on the mental health of Black people in tech, which he thinks is often overlooked in the fast-paced corporate and tech environments. I asked him how he makes mental health a priority at OTG, given his commitment. He shared, 'We added a floating holiday to everyone's schedule for a dedicated mental health day, and once a month, I sponsor a company lunch where the team comes together to openly discuss our work environment and share ideas for improvement. We also made updates to our insurance policies to provide easier access to therapy.' He further explained the reason for his commitment: 'I am a huge advocate for therapy myself and began going after my father, Leon Burns Jr., who founded the company, passed in 2011.' Burns also credits his alma mater for his learning how to embrace conversations around vulnerability. He stated that Historically Black Colleges and Universities (HBCUs) in recent years have 'created space for students to understand how our unique challenges and insecurities can be exploited in professional environments, and why prioritizing wellness over discomfort or financial gain is an essential part of leadership.' Burns' vision is focused on transformation and access. For him, being a leader means creating environments where others can imagine more for their futures. He is focused on reshaping the tech space to be a place where equity is engineered rather than assumed. His ultimate goal: To make sure that Black students don't get left behind.
Yahoo
11 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Opinion - Democrats are looking for answers — outside Washington
On the campaign trail, President Trump made a lot of promises. He promised to strengthen our economy. He promised to make our government more efficient. He promised to bring down costs. But after more than 100 days in, our economy is not strengthened, our government is certainly not more efficient, and costs are not down. The president has entangled us in trade wars with some of our closest trading partners — wars that erased $10 trillion from the stock market this spring and threaten to decimate family farms in my district and across the country. And with the help of the Department of Government Efficiency, he has waged an all-out assault on the federal government in an effort to weed out 'waste, fraud, and abuse.' I believe the American people elected Trump because they wanted solutions to pocketbook issues and a government that took action to get things done. But the president's agenda isn't working, and Democrats need to deliver. That's where the New Dem Coalition comes in. Before I explain why, I want to acknowledge that Democrats haven't always gotten everything right. During the election, we saw many working class voters drift away from the party. At times, our emphasis on identity politics or concepts like 'saving democracy' — while undeniably important — overshadowed the core economic issues that affect people's everyday lives. Instead of meeting voters where they are, we sometimes come across as telling them where they should be. That approach can feel out of touch and give the impression that the party is elitist, disconnected from the realities of everyday people. Working class voters are focused on how they'll afford their mortgage, put food on the table, or save for their kids' college — not necessarily on abstract debates about the soul of the nation. Don't get me wrong: the threat to democracy is real and urgent, especially with a president who shows little respect for courts or the Constitution. But if we're truly going to save democracy, we must build a broader coalition and bring more voters along. That means meeting people where they are, rather than telling them what should matter most. We need to address the tangible, kitchen-table issues that keep folks up at night. The New Dem Coalition has always done this. We have prioritized the needs of hard working Americans over the politics of D.C. We understand that we should be finding ways to make our government more efficient. We understand that we have to work across the aisle when we can — without compromising our values. That's why New Dems are crafting a proactive agenda — not only to win the House majority in 2026, but to maintain it for the long term. So, we're getting out of the D.C. bubble for a new series known as 'New Dems On the Road.' We'll be engaging with communities across the country, and gathering the critical feedback we need to guide our work. We're tackling every issue — from improving education outcomes to bolstering our national security — and working to find practical, lasting solutions that reflect the values and priorities of the American people. For our first stop, we zeroed in on immigration. Immigration isn't a problem we're going to solve overnight, but it's one that is consistently top of mind for the American people. We've come close to bipartisan solutions, only for selfish interests to squash our efforts in the 11th hour. That's why New Dem Immigration and Border Security Working Group members Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.) and Lou Correa (D-Calif.) sat down with Arizona leaders to talk about immigration. They met with industry and union representatives, members of the Arizona business community, and DACA recipients to discuss the importance of immigrants to Arizona's economy. The panel addressed the need to secure our border and pass a long-lasting immigration reform policy. It was instructive. And it showed the folks in these communities that we are listening to them. We know we don't have it all figured out — that's why we need real, local voices to help guide our work. Voices on the ground who are living and breathing these problems every single day. Then, it was my turn. I joined my friends Reps. Scott Peters (D-Calif.) and Wesley Bell (D-Mo.) for a conversation around clean energy and potential opportunities for bipartisan cooperation. We discussed the actions the Trump administration has taken to gut clean energy tax credits. There is no way around it — this is going to have a negative impact on people's utility bills. They will feel this. We also discussed what's ahead — like permitting reform, carbon capture and ultimately ways we can lower costs for people trying to keep the lights on, not raise them. Last month, Reps. Sarah McBride (D-Del.), Chrissy Houlahan (D-Pa.) and Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) got together to talk one-on-one with Delawareans about paid family and medical leave for working families. This is just the beginning. In total, we'll be conducting at least nine New Dems On the Road events — across the country. We need to come together, share ideas and forge a new path forward. A path that can address the issues that demand our attention: whether it's a single mom struggling to afford child care, a farmer looking to break into new markets, or a family who wants a good, public school education for their kids. We should all be committed to finding effective ways to achieve our shared goals and ensure that the government serves the people better. This isn't a partisan objective; it's a matter of common sense. However, real progress requires thoughtful strategy and careful action, not reckless cuts. Simply slashing budgets without consideration doesn't eliminate waste — it erodes the very foundation of what our government is meant to do: serve its citizens. New Democrats understand this deeply. We recognize that this moment calls for a meaningful response and an agenda that inspires — not the status quo. Our communities have elected us to take action, to solve problems and to improve lives. Now, more than ever, Democrats need to prove we can deliver Nikki Budzinski represents the 13th District of Illinois and is vice chair for policy for the New Dem Coalition. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
Yahoo
11 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Trump's ‘big, beautiful bill' includes 5-year investment in kids
(NewsNation) — President Donald Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' has touched on several facets he feels will help the American people presently and in the future, including investing in the country's youth. Trump on Monday plans to highlight the 'Trump Account,' in which the federal government would make a one-time contribution of $1,000 into a tax-deferred, low-cost index fund account that will track the overall stock market to every U.S. citizen born between Jan. 1, 2024, and Jan. 1, 2029. The accounts will be private property controlled by the child's guardians. Trump's big bill also seeks to undo the big bills of Biden and Obama The accounts will begin at $1,000 per child, with the opportunity to contribute an additional $5,000 yearly throughout the child's life. Several business leaders — including those from Dell, Uber and Goldman Sachs — have announced billions of dollars in collective investments into 'Trump Accounts' for the children of their employees. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
