Latest news with #UN-endorsed
The Star
a day ago
- Science
- The Star
30 per cent global ocean protection target not enough for marine giants, says study
CANBERRA/MANILA (Xinhua): The global goal to protect 30 per cent of the world's oceans by 2030 will not be sufficient to ensure the survival of marine megafauna such as whales, sharks, turtles, and seals, international scientists have warned. An international study has mapped the world's most critical ocean habitats for marine megafauna, revealing that even ambitious global protection targets will fall short of safeguarding these threatened species, according to a release from the Australian National University (ANU) on Friday. In December 2022, the Convention on Biological Diversity parties agreed to conserve 30 per cent of Earth's land and seas by 2030, but the United Nations Environment Program notes that biodiversity is unevenly protected: while a quarter of ecological regions meet the 30 pe rcent target, some have no coverage, leaving many species and ecosystems insufficiently conserved. The UN-endorsed MegaMove project, involving nearly 400 scientists from over 50 countries, tracked more than 100 marine megafauna species to identify where conservation efforts should focus, the release said. The study, published in Science, found that only 8 percent of oceans are currently protected and warns that the UN High Seas Treaty's 30 per cent target, though supported by 115 countries, will not fully safeguard key habitats for threatened marine giants. ANU Associate Professor Ana Sequeira, the study's lead author and MegaMove founder, explained that the research mapped areas where marine megafauna engage in essential behaviors such as foraging, resting, and migration. These species serve as top predators with crucial roles in marine ecosystems but face mounting threats from human activities, she said. "We found that the areas used by these animals overlap significantly with threats like fishing, shipping, warming temperatures, and plastic pollution," Sequeira said, adding the 30-percent protection goal is helpful but not enough, so further measures are needed to reduce threats beyond protected areas. The study identifies specific mitigation measures beyond protected areas, including modifications to fishing gear, different lighting systems in nets, and ship traffic management schemes. - Xinhua
Telegraph
25-02-2025
- Science
- Telegraph
Nasa feared giant asteroid had 20pc chance of hitting Earth
Nasa feared the chances of a deadly asteroid hitting Earth could rise past 20 per cent, but now believe it is more likely to collide with the Moon. The '2024 YR4' space rock, which is thought to be up to 90 metres in diameter – almost the length of a football pitch – was spotted on Christmas Day by a telescope in Chile, and its risk of impact rose steadily through January. Last week, Nasa increased the impact odds of the space rock to 3.1 per cent – or a one-in-32 chance of striking Earth in December 2032. But a statistical analysis seen by The Telegraph showed that the US space agency had warned that in a 'worst-case scenario' the chance of collision could climb past 20 per cent by April. The UN-endorsed space mission planning advisory group warns that 'terrestrial preparedness planning' should begin if the probability of impact is greater than 10 per cent within the next 20 years. The Nasa projections, submitted during a meeting of the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) in Vienna, reveal just how seriously the agency was taking the threat. Latest observations show that 2024 YR4 is no longer a threat to Earth. However, the chance of it hitting the Moon has now risen to one in 55 (1.8 per cent), with the risk expected to increase in the coming weeks. A spokesman for Nasa said: 'There still remains a very small chance for asteroid 2024 YR4 to impact the Moon. 'When first discovered, asteroid 2024 YR4 had a very small, but notable chance of impacting our planet in 2032. 'As observations of the asteroid continued to be submitted…experts at Nasa Jet Propulsion Laboratory's centre for near-earth object studies were able to calculate more precise models of the asteroid's trajectory and now have found there is no significant potential for this asteroid to impact our planet for the next century.' An asteroid of similar size to 2024 YR4 collides with Earth every few thousand years and would be of sufficient size and speed to cause loss of life and severe damage to property. Astronomers had rated the threat of the new asteroid as being a level three on the Torino impact hazard scale and 'capable of causing localised destruction'. Nasa said the scare had provided an 'invaluable opportunity' to test planetary defence and notification processes. The agency said it will continue to observe 2024 YR4 and the James Webb space telescope will also study the rock throughout March to gain more insights. The asteroid will swing past Earth again in 2028, when final observations can be made ahead of the 2032 pass. The odds of a collision with Earth currently stand at one in 37,000 (0.0027 per cent) – but its new calculated trajectory means the chance of it hitting the Moon is rising. 'No longer a major impact threat' Dr Vishnu Reddy, IAWN manager, said: 'The object is no longer a major impact threat. So we are good. Based on what I have seen in the past, it is unlikely to go up higher once it is trending down towards nought per cent. 'The Moon impact probability is up now and will go higher for a few weeks before that comes down as well.' In recent years the threat from asteroids led Nasa and the European Space Agency (Esa) to crash a spacecraft into an asteroid in the first ever test to see if a space rock could be moved in orbit. Data showed that the mission did change the trajectory. Esa said that it expected the threat to the Moon to rise in the coming months, before falling. A spokesman said: 'We do not calculate the impact probability (IP) for the Moon in the same rigorous manner, as for the Earth. However, indeed we still see an upward trend of the Moon IP, which is currently around 1.8 per cent 'The situation is similar as it was when Earth was still well within the uncertainty region. 'The most likely outcome is that also the Moon IP will peak at some point and then start to drop quickly. 'Whether this will happen during the current visibility period, or whether we will have to wait for the next measurement opportunities in 2028, remains to be seen.'
Yahoo
31-01-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
World's Space Agencies Say Asteroid Has 1.3% Chance of Hitting Earth in 2032
The world's space agencies are keeping close watch on an asteroid heading our way, because there's currently a 1 in 83 chance it will hit our planet in the next eight years. Asteroid 2024 YR4, as it's been designated, was flagged by the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) for its potential to impact Earth on 22 December 2032. "This is one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever," Catalina Sky Survey engineer David Rankin wrote on Bluesky. "Most likely outcome is still a near miss." But the asteroid's size, and the non-zero chance of it hitting Earth within the next 50 years, is enough to prick the ears of two UN-endorsed asteroid reaction groups. The IAWN will coordinate international organisations to continue monitoring 2024 YR4, and if necessary, develop a strategy for world governments in preparing for the hit and its consequences. "The first step in the planetary defence response is to trigger further observations," astronomer Colin Snodgrass from the University of Edinburgh told Ian Sample at The Guardian. "If these observations don't rule out an impact, the next steps will be more detailed characterisation measurements using telescopes, and discussion of what space agencies could do in terms of more detailed reconnaissance and eventually mitigation missions." Asteroid 2024 YR4 was first sighted on 27 December 2024 by a telescope in Río Hurtado, Chile. This telescope is part of a network that automatically scans the sky looking for early warning signs of asteroid impacts, aptly named the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS). The asteroid's diameter, while not enough to wreak immediate global havoc, is definitely enough to cause severe damage to whatever region it hits, potentially spanning as far as 50 kilometers from the impact site. It's too soon to know where on Earth that would be, if it happens at all, but the IAWN's Potential Impact Notification lists the eastern Pacific, northern South America, Africa, and South Asia as potential sites. A range of international agencies, including the European Space Agency, NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, and the Italian Near Earth Objects Dynamic Site, agree that the chance of the asteroid hitting Earth is just over 1 percent. Nonetheless, it's been rated 3 on the Torino Scale, which means we should pay it some attention, though it's likely to be reassigned to 0 with further telescopic observations. Only one asteroid in history has ever received a higher Torino scale rating. Near-Earth asteroid 99942 Apophis set the record at 4 in December 2024. Thankfully, recent calculations have ruled out the possibility of Apophis colliding with Earth for the foreseeable future. The odds of near-Earth asteroids colliding with our planet tend to rise in the early days of sighting them. At first we have just a few points of reference from which to calculate the asteroid's orbit. Because its path is less certain, at this stage the 'risk corridor' is very wide, increasing its potential overlap with Earth. As we receive more data by watching the asteroid's movements, we can be more certain of its predicted path, so it becomes narrower. Earth is usually still in the line of fire at this point. Because the path is more certain, the risk of the asteroid hitting Earth always appears to increase at this point. But ultimately, the more certain that path becomes, the narrower it gets, which in most cases reveals an asteroid trajectory that is both very certain, and, thankfully, not on course for Earth. It's particularly difficult to accurately predict asteroid 2024 YR4's path at the moment, because it has an elongated (eccentric) orbit around the Sun, and it's currently moving in almost a straight line away from Earth. So its uncertainty region is massive. Meanwhile, the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group will discuss the asteroid at a routine meeting in Vienna in the coming week. If the asteroid impact risk remains above 1 percent, the group will provide advice to the United Nations and consider our options, which will likely involve diverting or destroying the asteroid via spacecraft, like NASA's Dart mission. "This asteroid is of the scale that a mission like Dart could be effective, if required, so we have the technology and it has been tested," Snodgrass said. NASA Captures 'Most Intense Volcanic Eruption Ever' on Jupiter's Moon Io Could We Use Gravitational Waves For Space Communication? Scientists Are Exploring Giant Radio Galaxy Could Hold 30 Milky Ways, Astronomers Say
Yahoo
30-01-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Agencies plan for near-Earth asteroid's close encounter in 2032
A recently discovered, sizable asteroid may come within striking distance of Earth in less than eight years. But although the rock is potentially even larger than the one believed responsible for the historic Tunguska event in 1908, the odds are currently in humanity's favor. On December 27, 2024, the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) telescope in Rio Hurtado, Chile, detected a hunk of space rock approximately 828,800 kilometers (515,000 miles) from Earth. Astronomers confirmed the object as a near-Earth asteroid, and catalogued it as 2024 YR4. But additional calculations soon raised red flags—its estimated 130-328 feet diameter and potential orbital path meant that, for the first time ever, an asteroid met the requirements to trigger the two UN-endorsed global planetary defense groups, the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG). Once initiated, the organizations leverage every available research telescope around the world to train their lenses on the object and gather as much data as possible. 2024 YR4 is now speeding away from Earth, but astronomers gleaned enough information to estimate when it might return. Based on the available calculations, the asteroid will again near the planet on December 22nd, 2032. And when it does, there's an approximately 1.3 percent chance it will hit us. 'Asteroid 2024 YR4 has an almost 99 percent chance of safely passing Earth on 22 December 2032,' the European Space Agency said in its announcement on January 29, while still cautioning that 'a possible impact cannot yet be entirely ruled out.' Any percentage indicating an asteroid strike might cause some people to worry, but as it stands, the odds remain incredibly slim. Putting it another way might offer further assurance against space-induced catastrophe: While 2024 YR 4 currently checks all the boxes for Level 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, the asteroid warning system's definition makes it clear that such objects will 'most likely' be reclassified down to 0 pending additional telescopic observations. Astronomers may only have a limited window to gather more information, however. The ESA noted on Wednesday that 2024 YR4's elongated path around the Sun currently has it moving away from Earth in nearly a straight line, making it hard to learn its orbit. Experts likely have a few months before the asteroid begins fading from view. Until then, international agencies will continue coordinating their telescopes to observe 2024 YR4. This includes employing the European Southern Observatory's Very Large Telescope in Chile. Astronomers also estimate the asteroid will become observable once again in 2028, allowing for further analysis. While 2024 YR4 appears unlikely to hit Earth, such events do happen every few thousand years. When they do, the damage is impressive. The Tunguska event, for example, is believed to have occurred after a roughly 130-feet-wide asteroid exploded over Siberia in 1908. Over 800-square-miles of forest was flattened by the resulting force, or over twice the area of New York City. If 2024 YR4 ends up topping out at astronomers' maxiumum 328-feet-wide estimate, the fallout could be even worse. Available information doesn't narrow down a potential strike zone much, but that will also likely change as more data is collected. Regardless, based on what the experts already know, there's no real reason to start digging your asteroid bunker. And if those predictions are revised for the worse, there's already plenty of agencies readying plans to knock problematic space rocks out of Earth's path.
