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The Star
7 days ago
- Climate
- The Star
Pakistan braces for more rainfall days after deadly floods
People removing a wrecked van after monsoon rains in Pakistan on July 21. The monsoon season brings South Asia up to 80 per cent of its annual rainfall. - Photo: AFP ISLAMABAD: Torrential rains that have lashed Pakistan since June, claiming more than 200 lives, are set to continue in the coming days, according to the country's weather agency. Swathes of Punjab province have seen above-normal precipitation in the past two weeks, with many places getting 150 millimeters (6 inches) above historical averages in that period, according to the US Climate Prediction Center. The country's disaster management authorities have estimated this year's monsoon to be 65% more intense than last year, and that future rainy seasons are likely to be more severe and start earlier. Pakistan has been pummeled by a series of extreme effects of climate change in recent years, including heat waves and prolonged flooding in 2022 that killed more than 1,700 people and caused about US$40 billion in damage. "Pakistan contributes minimally to global greenhouse gas emissions but ranks among the top ten most climate-vulnerable countries,' Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said in a statement addressing disaster management last week. "It is a challenge, but also an opportunity to build a climate-resilient nation, especially in agriculture and infrastructure,' he said. Collapsed buildings have been a leading cause of death in recent weeks, killing at least 136 people as of July 21, a sign that infrastructure resilience remains a major challenge for a country that sees heavy rains most years. This year's death toll exposes a persistent lack of preparedness since 8 million people were displaced in the 2022 floods. According to Germanwatch, an environmental NGO, Pakistan was the country most affected by climate impacts that year, with disasters taking off 4% from the country's GDP. More extreme events are likely to further strain the country's fragile economy, plagued by debt, political instability and a chronic energy crisis. Climate change may dent the modest progress made in the past two years after fresh loans were granted by the International Monetary Fund. - Bloomberg
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Business Standard
10-07-2025
- Climate
- Business Standard
Life-threatening heat domes challenge forecasters amid climate change
Record-breaking temperatures seared the eastern US last month, leading to power emergencies across the region. The cause: an enormous ridge of high pressure that settled on the region, known as a heat dome. This phenomenon has also already struck Europe and China this summer, leading to the temporary closure of the Eiffel Tower and worries about wilting rice crops, respectively. But while heat domes are easy to identify once they strike, they remain difficult to forecast — a problematic prospect in a warming world. 'There is a world of difference between normal summer heat and record or near-record breaking extreme heat,'' said Scott Handel, lead forecaster at the US Climate Prediction Center. 'While normal summer heat can be dangerous, extreme heat can be particularly life threatening.' Heat dome is used to describe extreme heat waves to the general public that captures their menace, said Zach Zobel, a scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center. They occur when a large high pressure system settles over a specific area, baking it under stagnant air and the sun's unrelenting energy. That locks in more heat and can intensify the area of high pressure, creating a self-reinforcing cycle. Heat domes can occur at any time of year, but they're particularly dangerous during summer, with wide-ranging societal and economic impacts in the billions. Wildfires and droughts are often the byproduct of extreme heat and have caused some of the largest climate-related disasters in the US. From 1980 to 2024, 23 wildfires caused $147.9 billion in damage and killed 537 people while 32 droughts extracting a toll of $367.6 billion and killed 4,658, according to a database of billion-dollar disasters that was updated until this year by the US Centers for Environmental Information. Between 1979 and 2022, more than 14,000 Americans died directly from heat-related causes according to death certificates, the US Environmental Protection Agency said. In the summer of 2022, an estimated 61,672 people died from heat related causes, according to a July 2023 paper published in the journal of Nature Medicine. A prolonged heat dome can stress crops, particularly heavily traded corn and soybeans. Electricity prices and demand soar when temperatures rise and stay elevated for prolonged periods, said Anthony Chipriano, a forecaster at Vaisala. The dead, hot air under these massive systems can limit the tonnage carried by airliners, kink railroad tracks and crimp the output of wind turbines. For these reasons, meteorologists are opening their toolboxes to try and figure out where and when heat domes will strike. 'I don't have the same ability to predict heat domes like cold air outbreaks, but there are some trends,'' said Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research Inc. Meteorologists know, for example, the jet stream — a river of fast-flowing air girdling the globe — naturally migrates northward in summer and they can measure how fast it moves. That metric is known as the Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum, and it's among the best predictors for heat domes, said Matt Rogers, president of the Commodity Weather Group. When the value is low, as it is two weeks ago, 'it can be a leading indicator of widespread, middle latitude heat ridges,'' he said. The latest indication from GLAAM is the return of relatively cooler weather, Rogers said. July is tracking warmer than the 30-year average but cooler than the mean of the last 10 years and the least hot since 2021, he said. Some weather phenomenon like the polar vortex can be spotted several weeks in advance while others like El Nino can be predicted months ahead of time. But heat domes have a much shorter lead time. The US National Weather Service studies probable outcomes of emerging weather patterns, said Handel of Climate Prediction Center, which is what allowed the agency to start issuing heat warnings ahead of the dome that gripped the East Coast even as the region experienced relatively cool weather. The service issued a moderate risk of extreme heat on June 13, when the high temperature in New York's Central Park was still just 78F. Ten days later, the temperature reached 96F, and it hit 99F the day after, both daily records. Federal forecasters also rely on statistical analysis of past patterns compared to what computer models are projecting as well as measures like soil moisture since drier land means higher temperatures to put their heat forecast together. Climate change has warmed the planet, particularly the high latitudes. That influences heat domes in two ways. The first is their northward migration. That phenomenon played out in 2023 as a large ridge of high pressure parked across western-to-central Canada and kicked off a record wildfire season. The second is changes to the jet stream. The temperature gradient between the poles and the tropics helps keep the jet stream taut, allowing it to push weather patterns along after a few days, Zobel said. But as the Arctic warms faster than the rest of the planet, that gradient weakens and is akin to loosening the grip on a rope. The resulting slack can cause the jet stream to kink, bend and buckle. The river of air can also sometimes split, creating a 'kind of a no-man's land' that holds heat domes in place, Cohen said. Still, Arctic warming's exact impact on the jet stream is an area of active research, Simpson said. Some papers haven't been able to show the impacts that adherents of the weakening theory suggest, and others have come up with opposite results. What is clear is that temperatures are rising everywhere, said Karen McKinnon, an associate professor at the Institute of the Environment and Sustainability at the University of California Los Angeles, and it doesn't take that much of an increase on the hottest days to 'make summers feel substantially more extreme.' With more heat trapped in the system and weather patterns that can lock it in place over specific locations, that makes the need for more accurate forecasts with longer lead times all the more important. 'The weather event that kills more than anybody else on the planet is heat and that is certainly true in the United States,' Zobel said. 'It is silently a big human health impact.'
Economic Times
21-05-2025
- Climate
- Economic Times
West US does not have enough water and the reason is record snowmelt
TIL Creatives Rapid snowmelt across the western United States, triggered by extreme heat, is draining snowpack reserves and raising alarm for farmers, energy providers, and drought-stricken communities The western United States has long grappled with water scarcity, but a record-breaking snowmelt due to heat waves this year is pushing the region toward a full-blown crisis. "Our reservoirs are not filling up the way they should," says Jessica Martinez, an irrigation specialist in Colorado. "This threatens crops and the electricity grid."The snowpack, crucial for water storage and steady supply, is disappearing rapidly across the region from the West Coast to the Mountain West. According to the US National Integrated Drought Information System, some areas have less than half the typical snowpack, with parts of Nevada, Colorado, Utah, and New Mexico experiencing record early melt-out. Also Read: World's wealthiest one per cent responsible for one-fifth of global warming Only scattered regions in southern Oregon and northern California maintain above-average snow the eastern US, the West relies heavily on winter snowfall. Snowpack high in the mountains acts as a natural reservoir, gradually melting through spring and early summer to supply water for drinking and agriculture well into the dry swift snowmelt will leave rivers and reservoirs dangerously depleted. This runoff is crucial to agriculture, drinking water, and hydroelectric power, which is an essential energy source for western states. Businesses in farming and utilities are already bracing for reduced water availability, potentially leading to increased operational costs and production slowdowns. Also Read: The world's biggest companies have caused $28 trillion in climate damage The rapid snowmelt also signals an early wildfire season, increasing risk for communities and commercial assets. Additionally, with less water flowing into hydroelectric plants, energy companies face challenges maintaining renewable power output, potentially pushing up energy and New Mexico usually benefit from the summer monsoon starting late June, but the ongoing drought and heat exacerbate uncertainty for water-dependent US Climate Prediction Center forecasts continued high temperatures through late May, worsening drought conditions that already affect over half the land in 11 western states.'The situation demands urgent adaptation by businesses and policymakers to secure water and energy resilience,' says environmental analyst Dr. Mark Ellis.
Mint
21-05-2025
- Climate
- Mint
Record Pace of Snowmelt in US West Threatens Another Drought
Widespread heat across the US West is causing the snowpack to melt at a record-breaking pace, risking water shortages and an early start to wildfire season. Parts of the region spanning the West Coast to the lower Mountain West have less than half of the normal amount of snow typical at this time of year, the US National Integrated Drought Information System said in a statement. Some have nothing. Only parts of southern Oregon and a few places in Northern California are holding onto above-average snow pack. The snowpack is vital to the region, which for more than 20 years has struggled with drought, leaving states struggling to maintain water supplies and contributing to wildfires. The lack of spring runoff also depletes hydroelectric capacity, a key power source for the West. Though most areas received near-to-above-normal snow in winter, the quick melt caused much of it to change from solid to vapor, which has robbed rivers, streams and reservoirs of runoff needed to replenish water supplies. 'Snow melt this time of year is common, but such rapid melt rates are not normal,' the agency said. 'Some stations in Nevada, Colorado, Utah and New Mexico saw record early melt-out.' Unlike the east, the western US gets most of its water through the winter months and depends on snowpack high in the mountains melting slowly through the spring and early summer to fill reservoirs and rivers. The water is then used for drinking and agriculture across through the summer and fall. Arizona and New Mexico are often saved by their summer monsoon season, which starts in late June and July. Forecasters have been expecting a near-normal rainfall for those states. The forecast through May 25 to 29 calls for continued high temperatures, the US Climate Prediction Center said. Just over half of the land in 11 western states is in drought, according to the US Drought Monitor.
Bloomberg
10-04-2025
- Climate
- Bloomberg
La Niña's End Threatens to Unleash an Active Atlantic Hurricane Season
The weather-roiling La Niña weather pattern has ended, returning equatorial Pacific temperatures to a neutral state that could portend an active Atlantic hurricane season. Now that La Niña — a cooling of Pacific temperatures near the equator — is officially over, the ocean's surface is forecast to remain in a neutral condition through June, July, August and beyond, the US Climate Prediction Center said.
