
La Niña's End Threatens to Unleash an Active Atlantic Hurricane Season
The weather-roiling La Niña weather pattern has ended, returning equatorial Pacific temperatures to a neutral state that could portend an active Atlantic hurricane season.
Now that La Niña — a cooling of Pacific temperatures near the equator — is officially over, the ocean's surface is forecast to remain in a neutral condition through June, July, August and beyond, the US Climate Prediction Center said.

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Yahoo
a day ago
- Yahoo
It wasn't your imagination: May was the fifth wettest on record in NJ
After a long period of drought, New Jersey saw the fifth wettest May on record, according to a spring 2025 recap from the state climatologist's office. With all the rain that May provided, New Jersey reservoirs that supply drinking water to residents have been almost completely restored, said David Robinson, a Rutgers professor and the state climatologist. New Jersey is nearly out of its drought period and has sufficient reservoir levels for the hotter summer months ahead — and more rain is expected in the next few days. 'The Department of Environmental Protection is still cautious about this, and they have still retained the state in a drought warning primarily because the groundwater is being slow to respond, particularly in South Jersey,' Robinson 2024 was the driest in the state dating back to 1895, when records were first kept. New Jersey had not only the driest October on record, but it was the driest of any month in the state since 1895, Robinson said. The lack of precipitation in the fall and winter months were the result of patterns of precipitation in New England and around the Great Lakes that were just missing New Jersey as they passed by, Robinson said. Coastal storms such as Nor'easters are also sources of moisture for the area, but they didn't come until April and May when the pattern shifted. La Niña, a storm pattern in the Pacific Ocean, is possibly a reason other coastal storms were irregular due to sea surface temperatures, atmospheric pressure and wind patterns changing, Robinson said. 'A lot of what we are talking about here and what happened in May, that's just weather patterns that are associated with the day-to-day fluctuations in circulation,' Robinson said. 'That's what makes it so difficult to unravel all of this and explain all of this.' North Jersey reservoir levels dropped to nearly 20% below average between the months of January and March, according to data from the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection. In April and May, those reservoirs' water levels shot up to about 10% above average. For instance, the three reservoirs operated by Veolia along the Hackensack River in Bergen County — the Oradell Reservoir, Lake Tappan and Woodcliff Lake — had dropped to just above 50% of capacity by February, and well below the historical average for that time of year. By the end of May, they had rebounded to 100% capacity. The reservoirs rely on winter to supply them with water in time for the summer, Robinson said. The just-below normal precipitation in spring slightly reduced the statewide drought, but the large amounts of rain in May were able to replenish the reservoirs. 'We should always be careful with our use of water, because New Jersey's freshwater supplies are quite finite, and they can change pretty quickly,' Robinson said. 'With just a couple of hot, dry months, we could be back into a worrisome position again. The indicators are that we won't, but better to be careful.' The area will get more rain in the next few days with stronger showers the evening of June 6 and lighter showers the evening of June 7, according to the National Weather Service. July and August are also generally the wettest months of the year, so a drought in New Jersey this summer is not likely, Robinson said. 'Patterns become more local or regional during the summer, so it's hard to get a grasp on just what's going to unfold,' he said. 'However, there is some indication that this summer will lean toward the normal to somewhat above normal precipitation pattern.' This article originally appeared on May 2025 was 5th wettest on record in NJ, as reservoirs rebound
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Yahoo
NOAA predicts ‘above average' season in new hurricane outlook
COLUMBUS, Ga. () — NOAA has released their 2025 Atlantic hurricane season outlook and predicts an above average season with 13-19 named storms. Of those storms, 6-10 are expected to become hurricanes and 3-5 expected to become major hurricanes which is a category 3 or above. This season is expected to be above average due to a combination of factors such as a neutral ENSO conditions (lack of El Niño or La Niña), warmer than average ocean temperatures, weak wind shear and increased activity from the West African Monsoon. Hurricane season run from June 1st through November 30th. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.


San Francisco Chronicle
2 days ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
Here's why forecasters see California turning red on this map
California's first real taste of summer arrived recently, with temperatures pushing triple-digit highs from Redding to Palm Springs, heat more typical of July than spring. Yet during last week's heat wave, due to fog pooled beneath the Golden Gate Bridge that spilled over western San Francisco, afternoon highs only hit the low 60s in San Francisco. Meanwhile, just 30 miles inland, Concord baked at 100 degrees. These sharp temperature contrasts mark a California summer rite of passage, but forecasts suggest a less pronounced divide for future heatwaves this year. That's because coastal areas may have to rely on a thinner marine layer, which means less of the cooling ocean air that typically allows places like S.F. to stay comfortable. According to the seasonal outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, most inland areas in California have a 60% to 70% chance of experiencing one of the warmest summers since 1991. This forecast extends a clear warming trend. California's average summer temperature has come in above the 1991–2020 climatological normal every year since 2012. The run peaked in 2024, the hottest summer for California in over 100 years, when Sacramento, Stockton, Redding and San Jose all shattered their all-time seasonal heat records. This summer, even traditionally mild coastal cities face a coin‑flip level chance for above normal warmth, hinting that the marine layer may not offer its usual insulation. Rain won't offer relief either this summer and that's no surprise. California summers are historically dry and the Climate Prediction Center's 'equal chances' designation simply means the long range forecast models see no clear signal to tip the odds toward wetter or drier conditions. In practical terms, the state can expect its familiar pattern of scant summer rainfall even as the temperature outlook climbs. 'There really isn't much push from El Niño, La Niña, or other classic climate drivers,' said Johnna Infanti, a forecaster with the Climate Prediction Center. 'Yet every major model we run is pointing toward heat from June through August.' Why are the forecast models so sure of the heat? UCLA Climate scientist Daniel Swain sees two forces at work. First, he says, is the rising baseline: 'Climate change means most recent summers already start warmer than the 30- to 40-year average.' Second is an ocean pattern forecast models clearly detect even if meteorologists are not exactly sure what it is. As Swain puts it: 'There is something in the initial state of the Earth system — mostly the sea-surface-temperature pattern beyond ENSO, that is forcing this persistent very hot signal. We know it isn't El Niño, so it has to be something else, and we may not even have a clear name for it yet.' California's trend of increasingly severe heat waves illustrates these warnings. Cities statewide have witnessed a notable uptick in extremely hot days. Last summer shattered heat records across several locations, including Sacramento, Fresno, Bakersfield and Redding, each experiencing significantly more triple-digit days than their historical averages. Even more concerning are increasingly warm summer nights, disrupting the critical overnight cooling that communities depend on for recovery from daytime heat. The Climate Prediction Center's latest outlook suggests 2025 will once again deliver an above‑average run of 100‑degree afternoons and unusually warm overnight lows across much of the state. The hotter, drier backdrop will impact the fire season as well. Cal Fire and the National Interagency Fire Center reported that a lush grass crop is drying weeks ahead of schedule in Southern California. Sparse winter rains in that region left soils thirsty and vegetation quick to brown. The summer outlook shows July with above normal large fire potential over nearly all of Northern California and much of the Sierra and Coast Ranges. That risk expands to nearly the entire state by August, as persistent heat and drought-stressed fuels could push fire activity above normal this summer. The Southwest monsoon activity signals are mixed this year. Sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of California are running above normal, a warm bath that can fuel northbound moisture pulses. The Madden‑Julian Oscillation, a slow‑moving pulse of tropical thunderstorms that circles the globe every 30 to 60 days, is forecast to stay active into late June. And if that pulse coincides with a strengthening of the ridge of high pressure, it could help pull more monsoon moisture north in July. Meanwhile, NOAA calls for a subdued eastern Pacific hurricane season, a key late summer moisture source. Taken together, forecasts show no strong tilt toward a wetter or drier monsoon. As July and August approach, prolonged heat waves, particularly inland, seem increasingly likely. 'The models were really, really, really insistent on above‑normal temperatures across the entire U.S., not just over the West,' Infanti noted. California should brace for another exceptionally hot and largely dry summer, with inland valleys racking up many more 100‑degree days than usual and nights that stay uncomfortably warm.