La Niña's End Threatens to Unleash an Active Atlantic Hurricane Season
Now that La Niña — a cooling of Pacific temperatures near the equator — is officially over, the ocean's surface is forecast to remain in a neutral condition through June, July, August and beyond, the US Climate Prediction Center said.
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USA Today
5 hours ago
- USA Today
A surprising 'outbreak' of tropical cyclones prowl the Pacific. What now?
The typically unremarkable Central Pacific Hurricane Basin has seen a surprising uptick in storms in late July. Both major Hurricane Iona and Tropical Storm Keli spin harmlessly far from land. The typically unremarkable central Pacific hurricane basin has seen a surprising uptick in storms in late July as both major Hurricane Iona and Tropical Storm Keli spin harmlessly far from land. "The central Pacific Ocean is in the midst of an unusual tropical cyclone 'outbreak,' recording two concurrent named storms for the first time since 2015 and its first major (Category 3 or stronger) hurricane since Dora in August 2023," said WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry in an e-mail on July 29. Fortunately, "there is currently no immediate threat to the Hawaiian Islands from these systems," the National Weather Service in Honolulu said on July 29. While the twin storms in the central Pacific is "unusual," it's still a far cry from the all-time records set in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific basins: According to the National Hurricane Center, there have been as many as five active Atlantic tropical cyclones at once, which occurred Sept. 10-12, 1971. In the eastern Pacific, on Aug. 26, 1974, there were five simultaneous named storms of at least tropical storm strength, Phil Klotzbach, a tropical scientist at Colorado State University, told What does the activity in the Pacific mean for the US? While eastern Pacific tropical storms and hurricanes can affect the west coast of Mexico and their remnants occasionally affect the Southwest U.S. with drenching rain, central Pacific storms usually miss all land areas, though they can sometimes affect Hawaii. Tropical cyclones in the Pacific and Atlantic, while similar storms, have slightly different "seasons," with the eastern Pacific season starting two weeks earlier. Additionally, the large-scale climate factors that go into a given season's level of activity are different: For example, if forecasters predict an active Atlantic season due to La Niña, the opposite prediction is usually made for the eastern Pacific, which tends to be more active during El Niño years. As well, individual storms in each basin seldom interact directly since Central America acts as a barrier between the two basins. And while some storms can cross over between basins, usually their low-level circulation dissipates before making a complete crossover, the hurricane center said. Furthermore, hurricanes very rarely cross over from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic basin, AccuWeather reports: most of the hurricanes that have crossed over, records show, have taken a path from the Atlantic basin to the Pacific basin. Furthermore, both the central and eastern Pacific basins are separate from the Atlantic basin, which is the basin that we're most familiar with. All the basins have separate lists of names. Iona a major hurricane The Central Pacific Hurricane Center said in a July 29 advisory that Hurricane Iona had strengthened into a major hurricane several hundred miles south of the Hawaiian Islands. The storm had maximum sustained winds near 115 mph with higher gusts, making Iona a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson wind scale. Iona was moving toward the west and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual increase in forward speed during the next couple of days, according to hurricane center forecasters, who expect the storm to begin weakening by July 30. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Keli had maximum sustained winds near 40 mph with higher gusts and was forecast to continue moving westward. The hurricane center says "little change in strength" is forecast. The weather service said July 29, "although the tropical cyclones are forecast to pass several hundred miles south of Hawaii over the next couple of days, isolated thunderstorms along the northern periphery of these systems may effect the far southern portion of the offshore waters. And while some short-period southeast swells may reach southern shores of Hawaii, a much larger and unrelated south swell will dominate." Where is the central Pacific hurricane basin? The central Pacific basin encompasses all storms and hurricanes that form between 140° West Longitude and the International Date Line. It's distinct from the more familiar eastern Pacific basin, with the dividing line being an invisible line in midst of the ocean (140°W). Additionally, the National Hurricane Center handles naming for storms in the eastern Pacific, while the Central Pacific Hurricane Center handles naming for storms in the central Pacific. More: Hurricane Iona has strengthened into a Category 3 storm: See path Central Pacific basin is usually rather quiet The central Pacific basin can see a wide range of activity depending on the year, according to Lowry. Generally, he said the basin observes its most active hurricane seasons during El Niño years like 2015, 2009, and 1997 when it recorded 16, 7, and 9 tropical cyclones respectively. On average, the central Pacific sees only 4 to 5 tropical cyclones (tropical depression, storms, or hurricanes) each season and around three named storms (tropical storm or hurricanes), Lowry said. NOAA predicted a less active central Pacific hurricane season in 2025, with a range of 1-4 tropical cyclones across the basin.
Boston Globe
15-07-2025
- Boston Globe
Tropical disturbance near Florida to dump extreme flooding rain along Gulf coast
What comes next remains to be seen, as the core of the storm will glide along the shallow waters of the Gulf, likely paralleling the coastline. There is a 40 percent chance that the storm will form a tropical depression and a lesser chance for winds to strengthen to what would be Tropical Storm Dexter. Essentially, a weak pocket of high pressure over the interior southeast may not be strong enough to direct the storm out to the Gulf, which is a good sign in terms of winds. Regardless, sea surface temperatures in the northern Gulf are running in the upper 80s, with the atmosphere already full of moisture. Heavy rain is a lock across the Gulf coast, bringing flooding chances along the Florida panhandle to Louisiana by later in the work week. Advertisement A 40 percent chance for a tropical system to develop exists, mainly over the Gulf. Model tracks show the storm paralleling the Gulf Coast. Boston Globe The highest risk for extensive flooding exists in portions of Louisiana on Thursday and Friday, where the low-lying plain will be doused with 6 to 12 inches of rain in a hurry. This may lead to numerous flooding events, with flooding emergencies possible across New Orleans and Baton Rouge. As of now, it appears this system will stall out over Louisiana and Mississippi, which can create a very dangerous scenario heading into the weekend. Advertisement There is a chance for parts of the Gulf, especially Louisiana, to see double-digit rainfall totals as the tropical system dumps extreme rainfall. Boston Globe Will New England see remnant impacts? In a way, yes. Most of the moisture will push north along the Mississippi River heading into the weekend and will begin to wring out as the western edge of that pocket of high pressure over the Southeast pulls some of the moisture toward the Northeast. The remnant moisture will marginally support a separate system that will lurk near New England this weekend, but it will be minimal and held mostly to the south of our region. How is Atlantic hurricane season shaping up The current season is pacing ahead of schedule. We've had three named storms already, and the third storm is typically named by an average date of Aug. 3. The first named hurricane typically forms by Aug. 11. So we're essentially about three weeks ahead of a typical year, which usually produces 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, of which three usually evolve into a major, Category 3 or higher, hurricane. The National Hurricane Center predicts an above-average season with 13 to 19 named storms, 6 to 10 hurricanes, and between 3 and 5 major hurricanes. Above-average sea surface temperatures, along with the absence of a formidable El Niño or La Niña, are behind the slight increase in forecast tropical activity this season. NOAA predicts an above-average hurricane season for the Atlantic basin. Boston Globe Ken Mahan can be reached at
Yahoo
11-07-2025
- Yahoo
Global climate pattern shows signs of shifting. What will happen in the US?
Early signs of a possible La Niña fall and winter are emerging in some climate models, federal forecasters announced July 10. La Niña is a part of a natural climate cycle officially known as El Niño – Southern Oscillation, called ENSO by scientists. The cycle swings between warmer and cooler seawater in a region along the equator in the tropical Pacific. La Niña is marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the region. It is one of the main drivers of weather in the United States, especially during the late fall, winter and early spring. It's the opposite of the more well-known El Niño, which occurs when Pacific Ocean water is at least 0.9 degree warmer than average for three months. La Niña and El Niño typically have minimal impact on summer weather in the United States, other than some effects on hurricanes. Winter is the one season when they have the most impact. A typical La Niña winter in the United States brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the Southern states, according to the Climate Prediction Center. The Southeast and mid-Atlantic also tend to see higher-than-average temperatures during a La Niña winter. Meanwhile, New England and the Upper Midwest, including New York, tend to see lower-than-average temperatures, the Weather Channel said. More: Will a hurricane impact your state in 2025? Odds get an update. The typical impacts of a La Niña winter in North America include a wetter, colder winter in parts of the northern United States and a drier, warmer winter in parts of the southern United States. La Niña is a natural climate pattern marked by cooler-than-average seawater in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. When the water cools at least 0.9 degree Fahrenheit below average for three straight months, a La Niña is declared. "While this may sound like a small change in temperature, it can cause significant changes in the weather patterns around the globe," AccuWeather meteorologist Brian Lada said. In general, La Niña conditions favor hurricane development in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America, formerly known as the Gulf of Mexico. This is because during La Niña, the strong storm-killing winds known as wind shear relax across the Atlantic basin, allowing hurricanes to more easily develop. Hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University, in a July 10 email to USA TODAY, explained that "while Caribbean shear has been quite strong in June and is likely to remain strong throughout most of July, the potential trend more towards cool neutral (or even weak La Niña) later in the season may result in lower shear in the Caribbean later in the season." The lower the wind shear, the greater the chance for hurricane development in the Atlantic basin. But the status of ENSO is only part of the hurricane puzzle: Twenty years ago, in 2005, for instance, ENSO-neutral conditions also occurred in the Pacific ‒ and that year spawned the infamously destructive hurricanes Katrina and Rita, the National Weather Service said in an online report. Right now, it appears to be a toss-up. While so-called "ENSO-neutral" conditions are most likely through the late summer, thereafter, chances of La Niña conditions increase into the fall and winter 2025-26, forecasters from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) said July 10. In fact, one climate model used by the CPC – the North American Multi-Model Ensemble – "favors the onset of La Niña conditions during the Northern Hemisphere fall," the CPC said in its monthly update. Japan's weather bureau also announced July 10 that there is a 40% chance of La Niña emerging in the fall. Overall, the CPC said the chances for La Niña remain comparable to the likelihood of ENSO-neutral continuing. ENSO-neutral means neither El Niño (warmer waters) nor La Niña (cooler waters) conditions are dominant in the Pacific. While El Niño and La Niña have expected impacts on global seasonal weather and climate, what about neutral? "ENSO-neutral doesn't mean we expect upcoming seasonal rain, snow, and temperature to be close to average," writes Emily Becker in the CPC's ENSO blog. "Rather, during neutral, we don't have the same predictive information that El Niño and La Niña's atmospheric changes provide, making upcoming patterns harder to predict very far in advance." Contributing: Reuters This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 2025 La Niña forecast says major shift may be brewing
