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Sydney Morning Herald
4 days ago
- Politics
- Sydney Morning Herald
How Zelensky can save Ukraine
For this reason, when Washington and Moscow were exploring a deal that would bring about a ceasefire if Ukraine were to withdraw its troops from the Donbas regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, Zelensky was forced to speak out very loudly against it. Militarily, the Ukrainian president would have got nothing in return, other than a halt to the fighting, while Russia would have been allowed to bypass some of Ukraine's stiffest defences for free. There was some talk of Russian forces being made to withdraw from the northern region of Sumy and neighbouring Kharkiv. This strategy, according to Jaroslava Barbieri, a research fellow at Chatham House's Ukraine Forum, was designed by Putin to position Zelensky as the main blockage to peace in Trump's eyes. 'I'd say in demanding swathes of Ukrainian territory as part of a peace deal, Putin is aware the condition is unacceptable for most Ukrainians,' Barbieri said. Rejecting the offer could 'portray Ukraine's position as uncooperative and ungrateful to Trump's peace-brokering efforts,' she added. Barbieri said: 'It could drive a wedge between Trump and European allies, who have reiterated the importance of preserving Ukraine's sovereignty. 'And ... potentially destabilise Ukrainian society by mobilising grievances among the minority who are willing to accept concessions to end the war.' Polling by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology released in June found that just 38 per cent of Ukrainians were willing to accept territorial losses 'in order to achieve peace as soon as possible and preserve independence'. In comparison, 52 per cent said they were firmly against ceding land 'even if this makes the war last longer'. But Zelensky has accepted that some form of cession of territory will be necessary to end the war. Without it, he'd be likely to lose US support, and eventually European allies would start to fade away. Trump declared on Monday that there will be 'some swapping, some changes to land'. Sources have told Britain's Daily Telegraph that Zelensky could be ready to stop fighting, freeze the front line and hand over de facto control of territories occupied by Russian forces to Moscow as part of any settlement. These include swathes of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea. Loading Trump added: 'We're going to try to get some of that territory back for Ukraine.' The key to Zelensky managing the process and selling it back to his public will be in the language. De jure recognition of Russia's control would require a referendum and would be likely to stoke tensions in the population, enough to hurt Zelensky at the ballot box in any future election. Agreeing to de facto control, which is not legally recognised, in acceptance of the temporary reality of the situation on the ground is more likely. One possibility for this being discussed among war-watchers would be to replicate the Sino-British Joint Declaration signed between China and the United Kingdom to decide on Hong Kong's future. That deal saw London return sovereignty to Beijing in 1997, but under the condition that it would maintain Hong Kong's special status for 50 years. Loading Could Ukraine and Russia agree to recognise that the Donbas regions are legally Ukrainian but managed as if they belonged to Moscow for a set period of time? That would be likely to settle Zelensky's referendum problem by kicking any real decision into the long grass. The bloodshed would stop and the line in the sand would be drawn – for now. However, Moscow would use the time to sow anti-Ukrainian sentiment in the region, with the intention of making its eventual return almost impossible and unpalatable for Ukrainians, who have all lost a father, brother or friend in the war. Whatever the proposal, it would appear that Putin has covertly edged closer to one of his war aims by leaving Zelensky with a decision that will shape his future as president. And he has put the spotlight back on Ukraine's leader.
The Age
4 days ago
- Politics
- The Age
How Zelensky can save Ukraine
For this reason, when Washington and Moscow were exploring a deal that would bring about a ceasefire if Ukraine were to withdraw its troops from the Donbas regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, Zelensky was forced to speak out very loudly against it. Militarily, the Ukrainian president would have got nothing in return, other than a halt to the fighting, while Russia would have been allowed to bypass some of Ukraine's stiffest defences for free. There was some talk of Russian forces being made to withdraw from the northern region of Sumy and neighbouring Kharkiv. This strategy, according to Jaroslava Barbieri, a research fellow at Chatham House's Ukraine Forum, was designed by Putin to position Zelensky as the main blockage to peace in Trump's eyes. 'I'd say in demanding swathes of Ukrainian territory as part of a peace deal, Putin is aware the condition is unacceptable for most Ukrainians,' Barbieri said. Rejecting the offer could 'portray Ukraine's position as uncooperative and ungrateful to Trump's peace-brokering efforts,' she added. Barbieri said: 'It could drive a wedge between Trump and European allies, who have reiterated the importance of preserving Ukraine's sovereignty. 'And ... potentially destabilise Ukrainian society by mobilising grievances among the minority who are willing to accept concessions to end the war.' Polling by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology released in June found that just 38 per cent of Ukrainians were willing to accept territorial losses 'in order to achieve peace as soon as possible and preserve independence'. In comparison, 52 per cent said they were firmly against ceding land 'even if this makes the war last longer'. But Zelensky has accepted that some form of cession of territory will be necessary to end the war. Without it, he'd be likely to lose US support, and eventually European allies would start to fade away. Trump declared on Monday that there will be 'some swapping, some changes to land'. Sources have told Britain's Daily Telegraph that Zelensky could be ready to stop fighting, freeze the front line and hand over de facto control of territories occupied by Russian forces to Moscow as part of any settlement. These include swathes of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea. Loading Trump added: 'We're going to try to get some of that territory back for Ukraine.' The key to Zelensky managing the process and selling it back to his public will be in the language. De jure recognition of Russia's control would require a referendum and would be likely to stoke tensions in the population, enough to hurt Zelensky at the ballot box in any future election. Agreeing to de facto control, which is not legally recognised, in acceptance of the temporary reality of the situation on the ground is more likely. One possibility for this being discussed among war-watchers would be to replicate the Sino-British Joint Declaration signed between China and the United Kingdom to decide on Hong Kong's future. That deal saw London return sovereignty to Beijing in 1997, but under the condition that it would maintain Hong Kong's special status for 50 years. Loading Could Ukraine and Russia agree to recognise that the Donbas regions are legally Ukrainian but managed as if they belonged to Moscow for a set period of time? That would be likely to settle Zelensky's referendum problem by kicking any real decision into the long grass. The bloodshed would stop and the line in the sand would be drawn – for now. However, Moscow would use the time to sow anti-Ukrainian sentiment in the region, with the intention of making its eventual return almost impossible and unpalatable for Ukrainians, who have all lost a father, brother or friend in the war. Whatever the proposal, it would appear that Putin has covertly edged closer to one of his war aims by leaving Zelensky with a decision that will shape his future as president. And he has put the spotlight back on Ukraine's leader.
Gulf Today
21-05-2025
- Politics
- Gulf Today
Trump-Putin call on war is another blow to Kyiv and its allies
For Ukraine and its allies, who spent months trying to win Donald Trump over to their cause in the war started by Russia, it is back to square one. In a two-hour conversation with Russian leader Vladimir Putin late on Monday, the US president dropped his earlier insistence on an unconditional 30-day ceasefire that he hoped would kickstart what promise to be long and tortuous peace talks. Ukraine backed that proposal while Russia did not. Trump also signalled that the war he once promised to end in 24 hours was no longer his to fix — a message that leaves Ukraine vulnerable and its allies worried. It is another blow to Kyiv, coming less than three months after Trump's public falling out with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Since then, Europe's leaders have scrambled to repair the relationship and regain the initiative. In the weeks before the phone call, Trump had threatened to slap tougher sanctions on Russia if it did not show progress towards peace, a move Ukraine hoped would convince Putin to step back from his maximalist demands in any negotiations. That "stick" approach is gone for now, replaced by the "carrot" of economic partnership with the United States if and when the war ends. "In the phone call on Sunday with European leaders, Trump had agreed on the proposed approach — ask for (an) unconditional ceasefire and apply sanctions if nothing is moving," said a European diplomat, speaking anonymously to be frank about Europe's disappointment. "But he obviously dropped this idea when he talked to Putin... It is impossible to trust him for more than one day. He does not seem to be interested in Ukraine at all." Trump said Russia and Ukraine would immediately start negotiations toward ending the war, adding later that he thought "some progress is being made." When Trump spoke with European leaders including Zelensky after the Putin call, a person familiar with the discussion described the reaction to Trump's position as one of "shock." Ukraine and its European allies have presented a united front since Monday's call, announcing new sanctions on Russia and vowing to continue to engage with the United States. They do not discount the possibility that Trump may change his mind again. But mistrust of Putin runs high. His army is bigger than Ukraine's, it has been eking out gains along a 1,000-km (620-mile) front line for more than a year and Russia insists that any deal should reflect realities on the battlefield. "Putin is clearly playing for time. Unfortunately, we have to say Putin is not really interested in peace," German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said on Tuesday. Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine Forum at the London-based Chatham House think tank, agreed Putin was in no rush to negotiate a settlement. "For Russians, the battlefield and diplomacy are two sides of the same coin," she said. "Putin gets the upper hand on the battlefield through procrastination in diplomacy and by denying Europe an opportunity to... organize itself." After speaking to Trump, Putin said Moscow was ready to work with Ukraine on a memorandum about a future peace accord and that efforts to end the war that Russia began with its full-scale invasion in February 2022 were on the right track. US support has been key to Ukraine's ability to stave off defeat, and Trump's lurch away from his predecessor Joe Biden's support for Kyiv has left it scrambling to keep him engaged. The United States has been the biggest single contributor to Ukraine's war effort through tens of billions of dollars in military aid, and Kyiv relies on US military intelligence to identify enemy targets and movements in real time. What happens to that support once the aid agreed under Biden runs out over the summer is a crucial question that Ukraine is seeking to answer. The United States has not made its position clear. Europe has promised to maintain direct aid and arms purchases, but the United States would have to agree to sell its weapons and there are some US munitions that cannot be replaced, namely air defences and short-range guided missiles. There is also the economic pressure the US could bring against Russia, whose economy has weathered Western sanctions on the energy and banking sectors, but which is showing signs of strain from the enormous costs of the war. As they have done since Trump returned to the White House, Ukraine's allies rallied around Zelensky after this latest diplomatic setback. But the outcome of Trump's phone call with Putin will be particularly hard to swallow because they saw signs they were starting to win him over to putting pressure on Moscow. Several times in March and April, Trump expressed frustration at Putin's apparent foot-dragging, questioned whether he was being played by the Russian leader and threatened tougher sanctions against Moscow. The stated positions between the US and Europe remained far apart on key points including territory, but Kyiv viewed Trump's pronouncements as positive after the disastrous White House meeting in February when Zelensky and Trump publicly fell out. A minerals deal signed by Ukraine and the United States last month was viewed as a further sign of progress, as were recent negotiations in Istanbul where officials from Ukraine and Russia met directly for the first time in nearly three years. The disappointment on Tuesday was palpable. "It's one step forward, two or 10 steps back." said another European diplomat. "We will continue to pass messages to the Trump administration and push, push for it to pressure Russia." Reuters
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First Post
20-05-2025
- Business
- First Post
Trump's Putin call: A policy reversal that jolts Ukraine and strains allied unity
For Ukraine and its allies, who spent months trying to win Donald Trump over to their cause in the war started by Russia, it is back to square one. read more US President Donald Trump's recent two-hour discussion with Russian leader Vladimir Putin has sent shockwaves through Kyiv and its Western allies. After months of concerted efforts to secure stronger US backing against Russia, Ukraine and its supporters now find themselves back at square one. In a two-hour conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump abandoned his earlier demand for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire, a proposal Kyiv had supported in the hope of launching serious peace talks but rejected by Russia. This pivot suggests a departure from the 'stick' approach of threatening tougher sanctions on Russia for lack of peace progress, now replaced by a 'carrot' of economic partnership if and when the conflict concludes. The change is a profound setback for Ukraine, which had hoped this pressure would compel Moscow to ease its maximalist demands. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Trump, who once pledged to end the war swiftly, also downplayed his role in resolving the conflict, suggesting the outcome now lies elsewhere. The timing is especially damaging for Ukraine, coming just weeks after a high-profile rift between Trump and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. European leaders caught off guard by the policy pivot are scrambling to assess their next move. Just days before the call, Trump had warned of stricter sanctions on Russia if peace efforts stalled, a strategy Ukraine hoped would pressure Putin. That threat has now given way to offers of economic cooperation should hostilities cease, shifting the balance toward Moscow. European officials expressed deep frustration at the reversal. One diplomat described Trump's sudden departure from an agreed strategy as a breach of trust. 'He dropped the plan overnight after talking to Putin,' the official said. 'He does not seem invested in Ukraine at all.' Putin's calculus and Ukraine's vulnerability Despite Trump's apparent shift, Ukraine and its European allies have maintained a united front, announcing new sanctions against Russia and affirming their commitment to engage with the United States. They acknowledge the possibility of another change in Trump's stance. However, deep mistrust of Putin persists. With a larger army steadily gaining ground along the 1,000-kilometer front line for over a year, Russia continues to insist that any peace agreement must reflect the current battlefield realities. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated, 'Putin is clearly playing for time. Unfortunately, we have to say Putin is not really interested in peace.' Orysia Lutsevych of Chatham House's Ukraine Forum echoed this, noting, 'For Russians, the battlefield and diplomacy are two sides of the same coin,' with Putin using diplomatic delays to solidify gains. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Putin, for his part, claimed after the call with Trump that Moscow was ready to collaborate with Ukraine on a future peace accord and that efforts to end the conflict were on track. Washington's backing has been critical to Ukraine's defence, not just in terms of funding but also advanced military intelligence. As uncertainty builds over future US support, Kyiv is increasingly dependent on Europe, which lacks access to certain key American weapon systems. While European capitals have pledged continued aid, their leverage depends in part on Washington's stance. Trump's unpredictable approach has already created doubts, especially after a minerals deal and rare Ukraine-Russia talks in Istanbul seemed to suggest renewed diplomatic momentum. The economic pressure the US can exert on Russia, whose economy is showing signs of strain from war costs despite weathering previous Western sanctions, is another factor that now appears less certain. Dashed hopes and allied disappointment For Ukraine and its allies, the outcome of Trump's call with Putin is particularly disheartening because there had been recent signs of gaining his support in pressuring Moscow. In March and April, Trump had reportedly expressed frustration with Putin's perceived foot-dragging and even threatened tougher sanctions. These pronouncements, despite lingering differences between US and European positions on territorial issues, were viewed positively by Kyiv, especially after a contentious public exchange between Zelenskyy and Trump in February. Further signs of progress included a minerals deal signed between Ukraine and the US last month and the first direct talks between Ukrainian and Russian officials in nearly three years, held in Istanbul. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The disappointment among allies was palpable following Monday's call. As one European diplomat summarised, 'It's one step forward, two or 10 steps back. We will continue to pass messages to the Trump administration and push, push for it to pressure Russia.'
Yahoo
20-05-2025
- Politics
- Yahoo
Analysis-Trump-Putin call on war in Ukraine is another blow to Kyiv and its allies
By Tom Balmforth, Andreas Rinke and John Irish KYIV/BERLIN/PARIS (Reuters) -For Ukraine and its allies, who spent months trying to win Donald Trump over to their cause in the war started by Russia, it is back to square one. In a two-hour conversation with Russian leader Vladimir Putin late on Monday, the U.S. president dropped his earlier insistence on an unconditional 30-day ceasefire that he hoped would kickstart what promise to be long and tortuous peace talks. Ukraine backed that proposal while Russia did not. Trump also signalled that the war he once promised to end in 24 hours was no longer his to fix - a message that leaves Ukraine vulnerable and its allies worried. It is another blow to Kyiv, coming less than three months after Trump's public falling out with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy. Since then, Europe's leaders have scrambled to repair the relationship and regain the initiative. In the weeks before the phone call, Trump had threatened to slap tougher sanctions on Russia if it did not show progress towards peace, a move Ukraine hoped would convince Putin to step back from his maximalist demands in any negotiations. That "stick" approach is gone for now, replaced by the "carrot" of economic partnership with the United States if and when the war ends. "In the phone call on Sunday with European leaders, Trump had agreed on the proposed approach - ask for (an) unconditional ceasefire and apply sanctions if nothing is moving," said a European diplomat, speaking anonymously to be frank about Europe's disappointment. "But he obviously dropped this idea when he talked to Putin ... It is impossible to trust him for more than one day. He does not seem to be interested in Ukraine at all." Trump said Russia and Ukraine would immediately start negotiations toward ending the war, adding later that he thought "some progress is being made." When Trump spoke with European leaders including Zelenskiy after the Putin call, a person familiar with the discussion described the reaction to Trump's position as one of "shock." 'PLAYING FOR TIME' Ukraine and its European allies have presented a united front since Monday's call, announcing new sanctions on Russia and vowing to continue to engage with the United States. They do not discount the possibility that Trump may change his mind again. But mistrust of Putin runs high. His army is bigger than Ukraine's, it has been eking out gains along a 1,000-km (620-mile) front line for more than a year and Russia insists that any deal should reflect realities on the battlefield. "Putin is clearly playing for time. Unfortunately, we have to say Putin is not really interested in peace," German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said on Tuesday. Orysia Lutsevych, head of the Ukraine Forum at the London-based Chatham House think tank, agreed Putin was in no rush to negotiate a settlement. "For Russians, the battlefield and diplomacy are two sides of the same coin," she said. "Putin gets the upper hand on the battlefield through procrastination in diplomacy and by denying Europe an opportunity to ... organize itself." After speaking to Trump, Putin said Moscow was ready to work with Ukraine on a memorandum about a future peace accord and that efforts to end the war that Russia began with its full-scale invasion in February 2022 were on the right track. U.S. support has been key to Ukraine's ability to stave off defeat, and Trump's lurch away from his predecessor Joe Biden's support for Kyiv has left it scrambling to keep him engaged. The United States has been the biggest single contributor to Ukraine's war effort through tens of billions of dollars in military aid, and Kyiv relies on U.S. military intelligence to identify enemy targets and movements in real time. What happens to that support once the aid agreed under Biden runs out over the summer is a crucial question that Ukraine is seeking to answer. The United States has not made its position clear. Europe has promised to maintain direct aid and arms purchases, but the United States would have to agree to sell its weapons and there are some U.S. munitions that cannot be replaced, namely air defences and short-range guided missiles. There is also the economic pressure the U.S. could bring against Russia, whose economy has weathered Western sanctions on the energy and banking sectors, but which is showing signs of strain from the enormous costs of the war. DASHED HOPES As they have done since Trump returned to the White House, Ukraine's allies rallied around Zelenskiy after this latest diplomatic setback. But the outcome of Trump's phone call with Putin will be particularly hard to swallow because they saw signs they were starting to win him over to putting pressure on Moscow. Several times in March and April, Trump expressed frustration at Putin's apparent foot-dragging, questioned whether he was being played by the Russian leader and threatened tougher sanctions against Moscow. The stated positions between the U.S. and Europe remained far apart on key points including territory, but Kyiv viewed Trump's pronouncements as positive after the disastrous White House meeting in February when Zelenskiy and Trump publicly fell out. A minerals deal signed by Ukraine and the United States last month was viewed as a further sign of progress, as were recent negotiations in Istanbul where officials from Ukraine and Russia met directly for the first time in nearly three years. The disappointment on Tuesday was palpable. "It's one step forward, two or 10 steps back." said another European diplomat. "We will continue to pass messages to the Trump administration and push, push for it to pressure Russia." (Additional reporting by Elizabeth Piper in London and lili Bayer in Brussels; Writing by Mike Collett-White; Editing by Rod Nickel)
