How Zelensky can save Ukraine

Sydney Morning Herald

2 days ago

For this reason, when Washington and Moscow were exploring a deal that would bring about a ceasefire if Ukraine were to withdraw its troops from the Donbas regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, Zelensky was forced to speak out very loudly against it.
Militarily, the Ukrainian president would have got nothing in return, other than a halt to the fighting, while Russia would have been allowed to bypass some of Ukraine's stiffest defences for free.
There was some talk of Russian forces being made to withdraw from the northern region of Sumy and neighbouring Kharkiv. This strategy, according to Jaroslava Barbieri, a research fellow at Chatham House's Ukraine Forum, was designed by Putin to position Zelensky as the main blockage to peace in Trump's eyes.
'I'd say in demanding swathes of Ukrainian territory as part of a peace deal, Putin is aware the condition is unacceptable for most Ukrainians,' Barbieri said.
Rejecting the offer could 'portray Ukraine's position as uncooperative and ungrateful to Trump's peace-brokering efforts,' she added.
Barbieri said: 'It could drive a wedge between Trump and European allies, who have reiterated the importance of preserving Ukraine's sovereignty.
'And ... potentially destabilise Ukrainian society by mobilising grievances among the minority who are willing to accept concessions to end the war.'
Polling by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology released in June found that just 38 per cent of Ukrainians were willing to accept territorial losses 'in order to achieve peace as soon as possible and preserve independence'.
In comparison, 52 per cent said they were firmly against ceding land 'even if this makes the war last longer'.
But Zelensky has accepted that some form of cession of territory will be necessary to end the war. Without it, he'd be likely to lose US support, and eventually European allies would start to fade away.
Trump declared on Monday that there will be 'some swapping, some changes to land'.
Sources have told Britain's Daily Telegraph that Zelensky could be ready to stop fighting, freeze the front line and hand over de facto control of territories occupied by Russian forces to Moscow as part of any settlement. These include swathes of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson and Crimea.
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Trump added: 'We're going to try to get some of that territory back for Ukraine.'
The key to Zelensky managing the process and selling it back to his public will be in the language. De jure recognition of Russia's control would require a referendum and would be likely to stoke tensions in the population, enough to hurt Zelensky at the ballot box in any future election.
Agreeing to de facto control, which is not legally recognised, in acceptance of the temporary reality of the situation on the ground is more likely.
One possibility for this being discussed among war-watchers would be to replicate the Sino-British Joint Declaration signed between China and the United Kingdom to decide on Hong Kong's future. That deal saw London return sovereignty to Beijing in 1997, but under the condition that it would maintain Hong Kong's special status for 50 years.
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Could Ukraine and Russia agree to recognise that the Donbas regions are legally Ukrainian but managed as if they belonged to Moscow for a set period of time? That would be likely to settle Zelensky's referendum problem by kicking any real decision into the long grass. The bloodshed would stop and the line in the sand would be drawn – for now.
However, Moscow would use the time to sow anti-Ukrainian sentiment in the region, with the intention of making its eventual return almost impossible and unpalatable for Ukrainians, who have all lost a father, brother or friend in the war.
Whatever the proposal, it would appear that Putin has covertly edged closer to one of his war aims by leaving Zelensky with a decision that will shape his future as president. And he has put the spotlight back on Ukraine's leader.