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Straits Times
16-07-2025
- Business
- Straits Times
English majors at Chinese universities face uncertain future as AI replaces basic skills
AI translation tools now achieve over 95 per cent accuracy at 1 per cent the cost of human services. BEIJING - Once boasting abundant opportunities to land promising careers, foreign language majors are now confronting profound change as artificial intelligence ( AI ) disrupts traditional career paths and universities implement sweeping reforms. In 2023, the University of Science and Technology of China in Hefei, Anhui province, was among the first top-tier universities in China to discontinue its English major. In 2024, the University of International Business and Economics and Beijing Language and Culture University announced the suspension of enrolment for several master's programmes in less commonly taught languages, including Japanese translation and Italian interpretation. In May 2024, the University of Jinan in Shandong province announced it had halted enrolment in nine undergraduate majors, including Korean and German. That same month, Shenyang Aerospace University in Liaoning province listed 10 majors paused for enrolment, including English. According to the university undergraduate major approval catalog covering 2018-2022 released by the Chinese Ministry of Education, a total of 28 foreign language-related majors were discontinued by 109 universities. Among these, 26 universities discontinued Japanese, 21 discontinued English, and 10 discontinued Korean. Golden era over Language majors enjoyed a golden era from 1999 to 2010, fuelled by China's World Trade Organisation accession in December 2001. During this period, universities offering foreign language programmes surged from 200 to over 600, representing a 200 per cent increase, according to education news portal EOL. By 2010, the total number of English majors in colleges nationwide reached 850,000, with employment rates consistently exceeding 90 per cent . In 2005, English graduates commanded starting salaries 15 per cent above the national undergraduate average. Top stories Swipe. Select. Stay informed. Singapore July BTO launch to have over 4,600 balance flats, 2 BTO projects with under than 3-year wait Singapore Acute psychiatry services to be expanded across all healthcare clusters: MOH Singapore 'Kpods broke our marriage, shattered our children': Woman on husband's vape addiction Business US tariffs may last well after Trump; crucial for countries to deepen trade ties: SM Lee Multimedia Telling the Singapore story for 180 years Asia Indonesia police detain 12 suspects over baby trafficking ring linked to Singapore Life Walking for exercise? Here are tips on how to do it properly Singapore 'Nobody deserves to be alone': Why Mummy and Acha have fostered over 20 children in the past 22 years This trajectory, however, has reversed dramatically in recent years. AI translation tools now achieve over 95 per cent accuracy at 1 per cent the cost of human services, and have seized 40 per cent of the general translation market. The shift has eliminated demand for basic 'human translation machines 'while creating niches for 'translation managers' proficient in AI collaboration, EOL said. Employment statistics reflect the crisis. The 2023 employment rate for language majors fell to 76.8 per cent , 5.6 percentage points below the national undergraduate average, according to a report by Beijing-based education consultancy MyCOS. Only 52 per cent of language majors secured jobs related to their major, forcing nearly half to switch fields. Satisfaction with such majors plummeted from 78 per cent in 2010 to 67 per cen t in 2023, the report said. Traditional employment sectors contracted sharply. International trade and business hires declined from 28 per cent in 2010 to 18 per cent in 2023, while translation and localization roles halved from 15 per cent to 8 per cent during the period. Education and tutoring dropped from 25 per cent to 22 per cent , with K12 English training experiencing particularly severe contraction, MyCOS said. A new graduate of Beijing Foreign Studies University (BFSU) , who asked to be identified by her surname Zeng, said she has witnessed the decline of English majors at one of the country's best foreign language higher-learning institutions as the minimum entry scores for its flagship English programme have dropped over the years. For Ms Zeng, the trade-off between pragmatism and the nuances and beauty of the English language is a daily concern. She said: 'When I tell people I studied English, their first question is always about AI – 'why bother learning English when AI can do translation?' they ask.' She added: 'What we study is the aesthetic beauty of language, without which, even with ChatGPT, people cannot tell whether the English written by the AI tool is good or not.' Moreover, when learning English, students also understand the political system of English-speaking countries, critical thinking, and the philosophy of the Western world, which are all useful knowledge to have, she said. Through intensive reading in English, students are exposed to independent thinking, and concepts such as equality and caring for others, she said. However, Ms Zeng acknowledged the difficulties English major graduates face in landing jobs in the face of economic headwinds. After experimenting with cross-border e-commerce livestreams and corporate training, she now tutors wealthy Beijing students – work that pays very well but offers no stability. 'I am afraid the difficulty for English graduates to find jobs is that they have not learned the language well enough, and they are not capable of even writing a simple e-mail,' she said. 'It is something I cannot understand, but it is part of the harsh truth.' She said she still recommends high school graduates to learn English at BFSU, which has a great environment and caring and highly capable teachers. Mr Zhao Xincheng's post-graduation odyssey illustrates the decline of English as a major. A graduate of Wuhan University in Hubei province, Mr Zhao secured a tutoring position last autumn, only to receive a termination notice in April – two months before his graduation. 'No explanation, just 'position eliminated',' he said. Multiple subsequent interviews yielded nothing. Mr Zhao said he is not inferior to his classmates in terms of language skills, appearance, personality and communication skills. He believes he has been terminated for no good reason and feels frustrated. Mr Zhao is now preparing to take the civil service exams in 2025 . He said he does not recommend English as a career choice for students. If they like to study languages, they should have skills in other fields to increase their employment competitiveness, he said. Broader decline There is a broader trend of English declining as a major said Professor Wu Peng, dean of Jiangsu University's Overseas Education College. Since 2022, he has found fewer students inquiring about enrolling in an English major, he said. There are also fewer students with high entrance scores choosing the major, while more English major students are choosing to later switch to engineering, he said. However, Prof Wu believes the decline is not limited to English as a major, or China alone. It exists in liberal arts majors in almost all countries as well as 'less useful' engineering majors, he said. Prof Wu attributed the waning interest to policy shifts (like the 'double reduction' policy reducing K-12 English tutoring jobs), technological disruption (AI handling 80 per cent of basic translation), and the discipline's core weakness. Its biggest failing is producing over 100,000 graduates annually who are mainly focused on pure language skills, while market demand now centers on high-end interdisciplinary competence. Associate Professor Dai Jiangwen, head of the English department at Beijing Jiaotong University, rejected claims that English majors are 'declining', arguing that the discipline requires optimisation aligned with national needs and the fourth industrial revolution. She emphasised foreign languages' critical role in safeguarding information sovereignty, developing language technologies like machine translation, and preserving linguistic diversity. Prof Dai stressed the 'irreplaceable humanistic attributes' of the discipline in the AI era – fostering emotional intelligence, cultural sensitivity, and critical thinking that AI lacks. Both professors agreed the core issue is structural. Prof Dai pinpointed outdated curricula, faculty misalignment with industry needs, rigid disciplinary classifications, and obsolete training models. Prof Wu said graduates face intense competition from students in other fields who also possess strong English skills plus specialised knowledge. Prof Dai strongly recommended English majors include language intelligence programmes in their studies, calling it a 'direct path' for humanities students to enter the AI industry. She pointed to one programme that combines linguistics, AI, data science and cultural studies as an example. Prof Wu advised current students to urgently build 'English plus' skills (for example international law and data science), master technical tools, and target high-growth niche areas like specialised translation services or cross-border e-commerce. He recommended the major only to students with clear interdisciplinary ambitions and international career plans, favoring dual-degree 'English plus X' paths. Prof Wu said while national policies such as the Belt and Road Initiative and reform and opening-up provide long-term demand for English talent, 'pure English' ability is devalued. He stressed the urgent need for 'English plus minor languages' or 'language plus professional' compound skills, noting there was a deficit of more than 500,000 students who are fluent in English plus languages like Russian or Arabic, adding that current faculty structures are ill-prepared. Both professors agreed AI will reshape, not replace, language fields. Prof Dai said machines cannot fully replicate human translators' creativity, especially in nuanced communication and cultural adaptation. Prof Wu predicted AI would automate low-end translation but create new roles like 'AI trainers' or 'cultural adapters', leading to human-AI collaboration. He emphasised that humanities disciplines, and exploring 'what makes us human' fundamentally define the boundaries of AI and other technologies. He said, 'AI will force the humanities to upgrade, not disappear, and create experts who can use AI but understand humans better than AI.' CHINA DAILY/ASIA NEWS NETWORK
Asia News Network
16-07-2025
- Business
- Asia News Network
Chinese foreign language majors face uncertain future as AI replaces basic skills
July 16, 2025 BEIJING – Once boasting abundant opportunities to land promising careers, foreign language majors are now confronting profound change as artificial intelligence disrupts traditional career paths and universities implement sweeping reforms. In 2023, the University of Science and Technology of China in Hefei, Anhui province, was among the first top-tier universities in China to discontinue its English major. In 2024, the University of International Business and Economics and Beijing Language and Culture University announced the suspension of enrollment for several master's programs in less commonly taught languages, including Japanese translation and Italian interpretation. In May 2024, the University of Jinan in Shandong province announced it had halted enrollment in nine undergraduate majors, including Korean and German. That same month, Shenyang Aerospace University in Liaoning province listed 10 majors paused for enrollment, including English. According to the university undergraduate major approval catalog covering 2018-2022 released by the Ministry of Education, a total of 28 foreign language-related majors were discontinued by 109 universities. Among these, 26 universities discontinued Japanese, 21 discontinued English, and 10 discontinued Korean. Golden era over Language majors enjoyed a golden era from 1999 to 2010, fueled by China's World Trade Organization accession in December 2001. During this period, universities offering foreign language programs surged from 200 to over 600, representing a 200 percent increase, according to education news portal EOL. By 2010, the total number of English majors in colleges nationwide reached 850,000, with employment rates consistently exceeding 90 percent. In 2005, English graduates commanded starting salaries 15 percent above the national undergraduate average. This trajectory, however, has reversed dramatically in recent years. AI translation tools now achieve over 95 percent accuracy at 1 percent the cost of human services, and have seized 40 percent of the general translation market. The shift has eliminated demand for basic 'human translation machines 'while creating niches for 'translation managers' proficient in AI collaboration, EOL said. Employment statistics reflect the crisis. The 2023 employment rate for language majors fell to 76.8 percent, 5.6 percentage points below the national undergraduate average, according to a report by Beijing-based education consultancy MyCOS. Only 52 percent of language majors secured jobs related to their major, forcing nearly half to switch fields. Satisfaction with such majors plummeted from 78 percent in 2010 to 67 percent in 2023, the report said. Traditional employment sectors contracted sharply. International trade and business hires declined from 28 percent in 2010 to 18 percent in 2023, while translation and localization roles halved from 15 percent to 8 percent during the period. Education and tutoring dropped from 25 percent to 22 percent, with K12 English training experiencing particularly severe contraction, MyCOS said. A new graduate of Beijing Foreign Studies University, who asked to be identified by her surname Zeng, said she has witnessed the decline of English majors at one of the country's best foreign language higher-learning institutions as the minimum entry scores for its flagship English program have dropped over the years. For Zeng, the trade-off between pragmatism and the nuances and beauty of the English language is a daily concern. She said: 'When I tell people I studied English, their first question is always about AI — 'why bother learning English when AI can do translation' they ask?' 'What we study is the aesthetic beauty of language, without which, even with ChatGPT, people cannot tell whether the English written by the AI tool is good or not.' Moreover, when learning English, students also understand the political system of English-speaking countries, critical thinking, and the philosophy of the Western world, which are all useful knowledge to have, she said. Through intensive reading in English, students are exposed to independent thinking, and concepts such as equality and caring for others, she said. However, Zeng acknowledge the difficulties English major graduates face in landing jobs in the face of economic headwinds. After experimenting with cross-border e-commerce livestreams and corporate training, she now tutors wealthy Beijing students — work that pays very well but offers no stability. 'I am afraid the difficulty for English graduates to find jobs is that they have not learned the language well enough, and they are not capable of even writing a simple e-mail,' she said. 'It is something I cannot understand, but it is part of the harsh truth.' She said she still recommends high school graduates learn English at BFSU, which has a great environment and caring and highly capable teachers. Zhao Xincheng's post-graduation odyssey illustrates the decline of English as a major. A graduate of Wuhan University in Hubei province, Zhao secured a tutoring position last autumn, only to receive a termination notice in April — two months before his graduation. 'No explanation, just 'position eliminated',' he said. Subsequent multiple interviews yielded nothing. Zhao said he is not inferior to his classmates in terms of language skills, appearance, personality and communication skills. He believes he has been terminated for no good reason and feels frustrated. Zhao is now preparing to take the civil service exams next year. He said he does not recommend English as a career choice for students. If they like to study languages, they should have skills in other fields to increase their employment competitiveness, he said. Broader decline There is a broader trend of English declining as a major said Wu Peng, dean of Jiangsu University's Overseas Education College. Since 2022, he has found fewer students inquiring about enrolling in an English major, he said. There are also fewer students with high entrance scores choosing the major, while more English major students are choosing to later switch to engineering, he said. However, Wu believes the decline is not limited to English as a major, or China alone. It exists in liberal arts majors in almost all countries as well as 'less useful' engineering majors, he said. Wu attributed the waning interest to policy shifts (like the 'double reduction' policy reducing K-12 English tutoring jobs), technological disruption (AI handling 80 percent of basic translation), and the discipline's core weakness. Its biggest failing is producing over 100,000 graduates annually who are mainly focused on pure language skills, while market demand now centers on high-end interdisciplinary competence. Dai Jiangwen, head of the English department at Beijing Jiaotong University, rejected claims that English majors are 'declining', arguing that the discipline requires optimization aligned with national needs and the fourth industrial revolution. She emphasized foreign languages' critical role in safeguarding information sovereignty, developing language technologies like machine translation, and preserving linguistic diversity. Dai stressed the 'irreplaceable humanistic attributes' of the discipline in the AI era — fostering emotional intelligence, cultural sensitivity, and critical thinking that AI lacks. Both professors agreed the core issue is structural. Dai pinpointed outdated curricula, faculty misalignment with industry needs, rigid disciplinary classifications, and obsolete training models. Wu said graduates face intense competition from students in other fields who also possess strong English skills plus specialized knowledge. Dai strongly recommended English majors include language intelligence programs in their studies, calling it a 'direct path' for humanities students to enter the AI industry. She pointed to one program that combines linguistics, AI, data science and cultural studies as an example. Wu advised current students to urgently build 'English plus' skills (for example international law and data science), master technical tools, and target high-growth niche areas like specialized translation services or cross-border e-commerce. He recommended the major only to students with clear interdisciplinary ambitions and international career plans, favoring dual-degree 'English plus X' paths. Wu said while national policies such as the Belt and Road Initiative and reform and opening-up provide long-term demand for English talent, 'pure English' ability is devalued. He stressed the urgent need for 'English plus minor languages' or 'language plus professional' compound skills, noting there was a deficit of more than 500,000 students who are fluent in English plus languages like Russian or Arabic, adding that current faculty structures are ill-prepared. Both professors agreed AI will reshape, not replace, language fields. Dai said machines cannot fully replicate human translators' creativity, especially in nuanced communication and cultural adaptation. Wu predicted AI would automate low-end translation but create new roles like 'AI trainers' or 'cultural adapters', leading to human-AI collaboration. He emphasized that humanities disciplines, and exploring 'what makes us human' fundamentally define the boundaries of AI and other technologies. He said: 'AI will force the humanities to upgrade, not disappear, and create experts who can use AI but understand humans better than AI.'
Sydney Morning Herald
20-06-2025
- Politics
- Sydney Morning Herald
A US attack on Iran would show the limits of China's power
Xi also refrained from directly urging the United States not to attack Iran, saying only that the 'international community, especially major powers that have a special influence on the parties to the conflict, should make efforts to promote the cooling of the situation, rather than the opposite'. When China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, called his counterpart in Israel, he expressed Beijing's opposition to Israel's attacks, according to the Chinese summary of the call. But he stopped short of saying that China 'condemns' them, as he had in a call with Iran. In another call, with the foreign minister of Oman, Wang said that 'we cannot sit idly by and watch the regional situation slide into an unknown abyss', according to a Chinese government statement. But it is unclear what, if any, specific efforts China has made to find a diplomatic solution. In any case, Israel would likely be sceptical of China's neutrality as a mediator because of its alignment with Iran and engagement with Hamas, the Palestinian ally of Iran that attacked Israel in October 2023. China's efforts, at least in public, have been focused on evacuating more than 1000 of its citizens from Israel and Iran. 'Beijing is scrambling to keep up with the rapid pace of events and is prioritising looking after Chinese citizens and assets in the region rather than any sort of broader diplomatic initiative,' said Julian Gewirtz, who was a senior China policy official at the White House and the State Department during the Biden administration. Discussions of the conflict on China's heavily censored online forums have largely centred on the poor performance of Iran's military and security apparatus, though some participants have noted the limits of China's support for Iran. Zhu Zhaoyi, a Middle East expert at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, said in a post that China could not provide Iran with 'unconditional protection' and confront the United States and Israel militarily. He said Beijing could only exert pressure through the United Nations Security Council, of which China is a permanent member. 'The turmoil in the Middle East is both a challenge and a test for China,' Zhu wrote. China's tempered response resembles that of its like-minded partner, Russia, which has done little more than issue statements of support for Iran, despite having received badly needed military aid from Tehran for its war in Ukraine. Both Beijing and Moscow were also seen as bystanders last year when their shared partner, the Assad regime, was overthrown in Syria. Their relative absence raises questions about the cohesiveness of what some in Washington have called the 'Axis of Upheaval' – the quartet of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, which have drawn closer diplomatically and militarily around a common opposition to the US-dominated world order. Of the four nations, only China is deeply embedded in the global economy, which means it has much to lose from turmoil in the Middle East. It buys virtually all of Iran's exported oil, at a discount, using clandestine tanker fleets to evade US sanctions. And its ships depend on safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz to transport additional oil from Gulf states. Higher energy prices would present another major headache for Beijing, which is trying to turn its sluggish economy around. Besides energy, Iran provides China with a crucial foothold in the Middle East for advancing its interests and countering the United States, which has tens of thousands of troops across the region. Beijing has cultivated closer ties with Gulf states for the same reasons. Chinese analysts often argue that Beijing is an attractive mediator in the Middle East because it will not lecture other countries about issues such as human rights. 'It's the only major power trusted by rival factions in the region, capable of achieving breakthroughs where the US cannot,' said Wen Jing, a Middle East expert at Tsinghua University in Beijing. Loading But some Western analysts say China played only a small role in the detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, towards the end of those negotiations. Washington has also been frustrated by Beijing's reluctance to put pressure on Iran to stop Houthi rebels from attacking ships off the coast of Yemen, except in cases involving Chinese vessels. That unwillingness to apply pressure on its partners undercuts China's standing in the Middle East, said Barbara Leaf, a former assistant secretary of state for near Eastern affairs at the State Department who is now a senior adviser at Arnold and Porter, a Washington-based law firm.
The Age
20-06-2025
- Politics
- The Age
A US attack on Iran would show the limits of China's power
Xi also refrained from directly urging the United States not to attack Iran, saying only that the 'international community, especially major powers that have a special influence on the parties to the conflict, should make efforts to promote the cooling of the situation, rather than the opposite'. When China's top diplomat, Wang Yi, called his counterpart in Israel, he expressed Beijing's opposition to Israel's attacks, according to the Chinese summary of the call. But he stopped short of saying that China 'condemns' them, as he had in a call with Iran. In another call, with the foreign minister of Oman, Wang said that 'we cannot sit idly by and watch the regional situation slide into an unknown abyss', according to a Chinese government statement. But it is unclear what, if any, specific efforts China has made to find a diplomatic solution. In any case, Israel would likely be sceptical of China's neutrality as a mediator because of its alignment with Iran and engagement with Hamas, the Palestinian ally of Iran that attacked Israel in October 2023. China's efforts, at least in public, have been focused on evacuating more than 1000 of its citizens from Israel and Iran. 'Beijing is scrambling to keep up with the rapid pace of events and is prioritising looking after Chinese citizens and assets in the region rather than any sort of broader diplomatic initiative,' said Julian Gewirtz, who was a senior China policy official at the White House and the State Department during the Biden administration. Discussions of the conflict on China's heavily censored online forums have largely centred on the poor performance of Iran's military and security apparatus, though some participants have noted the limits of China's support for Iran. Zhu Zhaoyi, a Middle East expert at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, said in a post that China could not provide Iran with 'unconditional protection' and confront the United States and Israel militarily. He said Beijing could only exert pressure through the United Nations Security Council, of which China is a permanent member. 'The turmoil in the Middle East is both a challenge and a test for China,' Zhu wrote. China's tempered response resembles that of its like-minded partner, Russia, which has done little more than issue statements of support for Iran, despite having received badly needed military aid from Tehran for its war in Ukraine. Both Beijing and Moscow were also seen as bystanders last year when their shared partner, the Assad regime, was overthrown in Syria. Their relative absence raises questions about the cohesiveness of what some in Washington have called the 'Axis of Upheaval' – the quartet of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, which have drawn closer diplomatically and militarily around a common opposition to the US-dominated world order. Of the four nations, only China is deeply embedded in the global economy, which means it has much to lose from turmoil in the Middle East. It buys virtually all of Iran's exported oil, at a discount, using clandestine tanker fleets to evade US sanctions. And its ships depend on safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz to transport additional oil from Gulf states. Higher energy prices would present another major headache for Beijing, which is trying to turn its sluggish economy around. Besides energy, Iran provides China with a crucial foothold in the Middle East for advancing its interests and countering the United States, which has tens of thousands of troops across the region. Beijing has cultivated closer ties with Gulf states for the same reasons. Chinese analysts often argue that Beijing is an attractive mediator in the Middle East because it will not lecture other countries about issues such as human rights. 'It's the only major power trusted by rival factions in the region, capable of achieving breakthroughs where the US cannot,' said Wen Jing, a Middle East expert at Tsinghua University in Beijing. Loading But some Western analysts say China played only a small role in the detente between Iran and Saudi Arabia, towards the end of those negotiations. Washington has also been frustrated by Beijing's reluctance to put pressure on Iran to stop Houthi rebels from attacking ships off the coast of Yemen, except in cases involving Chinese vessels. That unwillingness to apply pressure on its partners undercuts China's standing in the Middle East, said Barbara Leaf, a former assistant secretary of state for near Eastern affairs at the State Department who is now a senior adviser at Arnold and Porter, a Washington-based law firm.
Economic Times
10-05-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
As US, China begin trade talks in Geneva, Trump's tariff hammer looks less mighty than he claims
The way President Donald Trump sees it, beating China in a trade war should be easy. After all, his logic goes, the Chinese sell Americans three times as much stuff as Americans sell them. Therefore, they have more to lose. Inflict enough pain, like the combined 145% taxes he slapped on Chinese imports last month, and they'll beg for mercy. Trump's treasury secretary, Scott Bessent has confidently compared Beijing to a card player stuck with a losing hand. "They're playing with a pair of twos,'' he said. Somebody forgot to tell China. So far, the Chinese have refused to fold under the pressure of Trump's massive tariffs. Instead, they have retaliated with triple-digit tariffs of their own. "All bullies are just paper tigers,'' the Chinese Foreign Ministry declared in a video last week. "Kneeling only invites more bullying.'' The stakes are high between the world's two biggest economies whose trade topped $660 billion last year. Bessent and Trump's top trade negotiator, Jamieson Greer, are heading to Geneva this weekend for initial trade talks with top Chinese officials. Trump suggested Friday that the U.S. could lower its tariffs on China, saying in a Truth Social post that "80% Tariff seems right! Up to Scott.? While businesses and investors welcome any easing of tensions, the prospects for a quick and significant breakthrough appear dim. "These are talks about talks, and China may be coming to assess what's on the table - or even just to buy time," said Craig Singleton, senior China fellow at the Washington-based think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies. "There's no shared roadmap or clear pathway to de-escalation." But if the two countries eventually agree to scale back the massive taxes - tariffs - they have slapped on each other's goods, it would relieve world financial markets and companies on both sides of the Pacific Ocean that depend on US-China trade. "The companies involved in this trade on both sides just cannot afford waiting anymore," said economist John Gong of the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing. In a worst-case scenario, China could walk away from the negotiations if it feels the US side isn't treating China as an equal or isn't willing to take the first step to deescalate, Gong said. "I think if (Bessent) doesn't go into this negotiation with this kind of mindset, this could be very difficult," he said. For now, the two countries can't even agree on who requested the talks. "The meeting is being held at the request of the U.S. side,'' Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said Wednesday. Trump disagreed. "They ought to go back and study their files," he said. What seems clear is that Trump's favorite economic weapon - import taxes, or tariffs - has not proved as mighty as he'd hoped. "For Trump, what's happened here is that the rhetoric of his campaign has finally had to face economic reality," said Jeff Moon, a trade official in the Obama administration who now runs the China Moon Strategies consultancy. "The idea that he was going to bring China to its knees in terms of tariffs was never going to work.'' Trump views tariffs an all-purpose economic tool that can raise money for the US Treasury, protect American industries, lure factories to the United States and pressure other countries to bend to his will, even on issues such as immigration and drug trafficking. He used tariffs in his first term and has been even more aggressive and unpredictable about imposing them in his second. He's slapped a 10% tariff on almost every country in the world, blowing up the rules that had governed global trade for decades. But it's his trade war with China that has really put markets and businesses on edge. It started in February when he announced a 10% levy on Chinese imports. By April, Trump ratcheted up the taxes on China to a staggering 145%. Beijing upped its tariff on American products to 125%. Trump's escalation sent financial markets tumbling and left U.S. retailers warning that they might run out of goods as U.S.-China trade implodes. U.S. consumers, worried about the prospect of empty shelves and higher prices, are losing confidence in the economy. "This was not very well planned,'' said Zongyuan Zoe Liu, senior fellow in China studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. "I don't think he intended to have the tariffs escalate into this chaos.'' When Trump hit Chinese imports with tariffs during his first term, he charged that Beijing used unfair tactics, including cybertheft, to give its technology firms an edge. The two countries reached a truce - the so-called Phase One agreement - in January 2020; China agreed to buy more U.S. products, and Trump held off on even higher tariffs. But they didn't resolve the big issues dividing them, including China's subsidies of homegrown tech firms. China was ready for a rematch when Trump returned to the White House. It had worked to reduce its dependence on America's massive market, cutting the U.S. share of its exports to 15% last year from more than 19% in 2018, according to Dexter Roberts of the Atlantic Council. Beijing is confident that the Chinese people are more willing than Americans to endure the fallout from a trade war, including falling exports and shuttered factories. "For China, it's painful, but it's also imperative to withstand it, and it's prepared to cope with it,'' said Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center. In addition to miscalculating Chinese resolve, the Trump administration may have underestimated how much America relies on China. For decades, Americans have come to depend on Chinese factories. They produce 97% of America's imported baby carriages, 96% of its artificial flowers and umbrellas, 95% of its fireworks, 93% of its children's coloring books and 90% of its combs. "Without us, what do they have to sell?" Chinese toymaker Cheng Zhengren told Beijing News. "Their shelves would be empty." The showerhead company Afina last month reported on an experiment suggesting that American consumers have little willingness to pay more for American-made products. Afina makes a filtered showerhead in China and Vietnam that retails for $129. Making the same product in America would lift the price to $239. When customers on the company's website were given a choice between them, 584 chose the cheap Asian one; not one opted for the costlier U.S.-made version. And it's not just consumers who depend on China. America's own factories do, too. The National Association of Manufacturers calculates 47% of U.S. imports from China in 2023 were "manufacturing inputs'' - industrial supplies, auto parts and capital equipment that American manufacturers used to make other their own products domestically. So Trump's tariffs risk raising costs and reducing supplies that U.S. factories rely on, making them less competitive. Louise Loo, China economist at Oxford Economics, a consulting firm, said that China's ability to reduce its dependence on the U.S. market in recent years means "they're probably likely to be able to find substitutes for buyers, much easier than the U.S. side will be able to find suppliers." Still, China won't emerge from a trade war unscathed either. Citing the impact of the trade war, the International Monetary Fund last month downgraded the outlook for the Chinese economy this year and next. "China needs the United States of America," White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at Friday's news briefing. "They need our markets. They need our consumer base. And Secretary Bessent knows that he's going to Switzerland this weekend with the full support and confidence and trust of the president here at home." Indeed Moon, who also served as a diplomat in China, noted the tariffs cut both ways: "Both of them are highly dependent on bilateral trade. They have put themselves in a corner.'' Jens Eskelund, president of the EU Chamber of Commerce in China, expressed relief that U.S. and Chinese officials were meeting. "So good,'' he said, pointing to the Vatican conclave that just picked a new pope as inspiration. "Lock them in a room and then hopefully white smoke will come out."
