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First Post
3 days ago
- Politics
- First Post
Operation Spider Web hands Ukraine ‘cards' to play with at negotiation table
With Operation Spider Web, Ukraine has played its cards and acquired a seat at the negotiating table with a position of relative strength. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also punctured the myth of Russian invincibility and called out Vladimir Putin's bluff of imminent victory and nuclear rhetoric. read more Months after US President Donald Trump berated him at the White House for not having any cards, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy played his cards on Sunday. In an audacious attack with no precedent in the world, Ukraine struck five airbases and possibly a submarine base as well across the length and breadth of Russia — including in the far-off Siberia. With 117 drones, Ukraine destroyed nearly a third of Russia's long-range, nuclear-capable bombers and airborne early warning and command (AEWAC) fleets. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD With Operation Spider Web, Ukraine reminded the world that the war is far from being decided and Ukraine is far from being defeated. In the David versus Goliath face-off, Ukraine has shown it has mastered asymmetric warfare and has the ability to impose costs despite its adversary having superiority in every domain. Even though Trump has for months parroted Russian talking points that Ukraine is on the brink of defeat, the situation on the ground is a stalemate at best and, at worst, costs far outweigh the benefits for Russia. Neither side currently holds a decisive upper hand in the battlefield and Russia's incremental gains and Ukraine's resilient defence signal not victory, but a prolonged stalemate, says Shreya Sinha, a European affairs scholar at Vivekananda International Foundation (VIF). Facts in face: Russia has gained just 1 per cent of Ukrainian territory since January 2024. Zelenskyy destroys Russian invincibility — and asserts Ukraine's resilience For months, visuals of Ukrainian neighbourhoods in Russian airstrikes and the sting of betrayal as the principal ally, the United States, appeared to switch allegiance to the adversary, had dominated the news cycle. But that was until Sunday. Since Sunday, have dominated the news cycle as well as deliberations of strategists across the world as Ukraine ushered the world into a new age of modern warfare with the attack. Suddenly, Russia is no longer as invincible as Vladimir Putin had been portraying and not as victorious as Trump had been saying. 'Ukraine's drone strikes have communicated the nation's resilience and innovation, challenging assumptions about asymmetry in capability. In a non-kinetic warfare paradigm, Ukraine has not only held ground but also reinvented itself as a formidable actor in drone-based hybrid warfare, shaping perceptions globally,' says Sinha, an Associate Fellow of European studies at the Delhi-based think tank VIF. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian airbases and the destruction of several nuclear-capable intercontinental bombers is among the most audacious covert ops in military history. Some of the images, shown here, reveals the damage. Ukraine claims 40 aircraft destroyed.… — Vishnu Som (@VishnuNDTV) June 4, 2025 To be sure, Russia was never close to an overwhelming victory despite what the propagandists said as every gain came at a very high cost. Consider these facts: Russia has lost its Black Sea fleet to the extent that it is essentially inoperable and has also lost a third of its long-range bomber aircraft and nearly half of its AWAC fleet. It has suffered around 1 million troop casualties . Ukraine has also assassinated some top generals. Despite outnumbering and outgunning Ukraine, Russia has suffered disproportionately higher losses and it needs to be asked whether such losses are worth the gains, says Swasti Rao, a scholar of geopolitics at Jindal School of International Affairs (JSIA). STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Rao pointed out that even though Russia controls a fifth of Ukrainian territory, a large chunk of it was captured with the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and subsequent insurgency in eastern Ukraine before 2022. As per the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia currently controls around 19 per cent of Ukrainian territory — around 4-5 per cent was captured with the annexation of Crimea in 2014, around 2-3 per cent was captured by pro-Russia insurgents in eastern Ukraine during 2014-22, and Russia has captured just 12 per cent in the full-scale war since 2022. Rao says that the way Ukraine dealt a blow worth $7-8 billion to Russia with drones worth just a few million dollars at most tells the entire cost versus benefit story of the war. More than weapons, Ukraine lacks soldiers, but, with innovation in drone warfare, Ukraine has compensated its low numbers to a great extent, says Rao, an associate professor at JISA and a non-resident fellow at Eastern Circles think tank. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'The situation now is that the war is costing Russia much more than it's costing Ukraine in all domains — equipment, money, and reputation. As a result of the war, Russia has become dependent on China for the sustenance of its war and economy. For a superpower to become a junior partner of a rising power is a major loss of reputation,' says Rao Ukraine seeks strength at negotiation table With the drone attack, Zelenskyy has aimed for many birds with one stone. Besides securing a tactical edge with the attacks and reminding the world that the war is nowhere near its conclusion and that Ukraine does hold cards, Zelenskyy's biggest accomplishment is, in the words of Rao, the confirmation of a seat at the negotiating table. 'Ukraine sought, and successfully acquired, a relative position of strength in ongoing negotiations with these strikes. The final outcome of the war is unlikely to change in the sense that Ukraine is unlikely to get Russia-occupied territories back, but such military successes strengthens its hands in talks and securing better terms, such as increased say in talks and perhaps negotiating security guarantees,' says Rao. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Such a situation is a far cry from the situation just a few months back when Trump had said that Ukraine having a seat at the table in decisions about the end of the war was not a must. While Russia has acquired a position of relative strength, Russia has lost some leverage and Ukraine has called out Putin's bluff to a great extent. Rao tells Firstpost, 'Despite such a large military and famed intelligence apparatus, Ukraine has called out Russia's bluff again and again. Ukraine has assassinated Russian generals at the time and place of its choosing. Ukraine has sunk prized Russian ships. Now, Ukraine has destroyed some of the most valued Russian Air Force planes. As Russia has lost a face in all domains, ranging from border security and foreign intelligence to domestic security and base security, its leverage in talks has also been affected.' While Putin has vowed to retaliate and maintained his stand in his latest telephonic conversation with US President Donald Trump, if Ukraine manages to hold onto advantages gained through the recent drone attacks, it can secure a deal that addresses its concerns better, suggests Rao. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD For Ukraine, full-scale concessions are simply not on the table anymore and Ukraine is set to push for its terms more forcefully, says Sinha of VIF. 'It's now certain that Ukraine will not sign a deal that legitimises recent Russian gains, such as in Novopil in Donetsk, Vodolahy in Sumy, or Bilohorivka in Luhansk. These are not just pieces of land, but they are proof that this war is still very much ongoing, to which Ukraine has given its all. Any future peace deal would likely hinge on international security guarantees and a long-term roadmap to reconstruction and political stability,' says Sinha. As for the immediate future, even though Putin's supporters have called for a nuclear attack on Ukraine and some have suggested that Putin could launch a new offensive with unprecedented fury, neither is likely — even as Putin has vowed retaliation. For many weeks, Russia has been launching hundreds of drones and missiles on a near-daily basis, so the increase of scale would not mean much for Ukraine. As for the nuclear attack, there is consensus that it is a red line that the international community, including China, would allow Putin to cross. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD At multiple points in the war, China, the principal ally of Russia, and India, which has functioned as a backchannel on occasions, made it clear to Putin that nuclear weapons were off the table come what may. As for a ground offensive, Russia may not be in a position to launch it anytime soon without a fresh mobilisation of its troops as it faces resource crunch for such a massive offensive in Ukraine, says Kseniya Kirillova, a Russia analyst at Washington DC-based think tank Jamestown Foundation. More than Ukraine's attacks, the question of a new offensive would be decided by internal stability in Russia, says Kirillova. 'It appears that Putin is reluctant to declare such a mobilisation and is instead interested in a temporary pause. New aggression could emerge if the war in Ukraine stalls and Putin concludes that propaganda alone is no longer sufficient to maintain regime stability. However, if Europe demonstrates a credible readiness to defend itself, this would serve as an effective deterrent. It is important to remember that it is weakness, not strength, that provokes Putin,' says Kirillova
Time of India
23-05-2025
- Politics
- Time of India
From nadir to zenith – a story that must be told
Gen Saxena is the former Director General of the Corps of Army Air Defence. He has been decorated three times by the President of India for his distinguished and selfless Service to the nation. The General is a Distinguished fellow at the Vivekananda International Foundation and has held a Chair of Excellence at the United Services Institution of India. He is also a United Nations Scholar with an MPhil and PhD and a Law scholar at the National Law School of India University. He is a recipient of numerous prestigious awards in the Service. He has also been awarded by Institution of Electrical and Telecommunication Engineers (IETE) for his seminal contribution in the development of Low Level Light Weight Radar The General is a prolific writer. He has authored five books and has to his credit hundreds of articles in various defence magazines covering the subjects like air defence, aerospace, military communication, cyber security, nuclear security and defence procurements. He gets published at the rate of 2-3 articles in a month across defence media of the nation. He is also a frequent face on the TV channels speaking on diverse issues in his core competency domain. General Saxena has also spearheaded a Project for the welfare of the families of martyrs and disabled soldiers. He is also a UN scholar with an MPhil and PhD and a law scholar pursuing qualifications in Human Rights, Child Rights and Medical law and Ethics. Gen Saxena is a prolific writer. He has to his credit hundreds of articles in various defence magazines and counting. His core competency domain includes air defence, aerospace, ballistic missile defence, unmanned aerial systems, military communications, cyber security, nuclear security and defence procurements. He has been decorated three times by the President of India. He has also been awarded by Institution of Electronics and Telecommunication Engineers for his contribution to radar design. LESS ... MORE Fresh from the memories of Op Sindoor one was overwhelmed by the screaming headlines and got swept over by the avalanche of the 'breaking news (es)' that claimed to tell the story by the 'second'. Amongst this high decibel imbroglio, one news that outdid all the rest was the news of the air defence warriors sounding a death knell to the enemy's air threat and one of their weapons that stole most of the limelight was Akash, our very own Short Range Surface-to-Air Missile ( SRSAM) system. One heard repeatedly – Akash did this, Akash did that, Akash downed the deadly missiles and drones of the enemy. Clearly Op Sindoor was the validation of our 'pride' called the Akash While all this was afoot, my memories went back some four decades. A bird chirped in my year…this story of Akash's journey from nadir to zenith must be told; that much for the caption. I remember in the early eighties, it used to be professionally savvy for the young officers like me to be showing slides while our Commanding officers talked big about the acronym IGMDP with pride to the visiting dignitaries to the unit. This longish acronym stood for Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme – the birthing ground of Akash. Actually IGMDP was a very ambitious programme of the Ministry of Defence for the R&D and comprehensive development of a series of SAMs- Prithvi, Trishul, Akash and Nag ( Agni was added later on) that started in 1982-83. I am sure; they could not have found a better Programme Director for IGMDP. Any guesses? Dr APJ Abdul Kalam! Need I say more? I will pick up thread only for Akash and not for other SAMs, sticking to story. The initial concentration of IGMDP was mainly on Prithvi. The Akash story picked up a few years into the programme. I remember we, the Air Defence Artillery then ( The Corps of Army Air Defence came into being in 1994) used to interact frequently with the first Project Director of Akash, Dr Prahalada; a charismatic person, a distinguished aerospace engineer and later a Padma awardee; above all a person with a 'never to say die' attitude. To put it mildly, the initial years of Akash development were full of challenges and marked with failed deadlines year-on-year. There were multiple issues…a couple of times the missile would explode soon after leaving the launcher , in many other flight trials , the missile guidance radar will fail to 'gather' the article ( implying take it in its control for guiding it to the target). On many other occasions, the target lock would break, in some others the guidance would fail making the missile go astray midflight. Those were challenging times indeed. Also, there were major challenges to perfect the design of the passive array radar that could guide multiple number of missiles on multiple targets at the same time. Even after multiple tests, the challenges remained daunting. A situation was reached sometime around 2002-03 when there were opinions of even not accepting the weapon system in the Army. Project Trishul (another project under IGMDP for quick reaction SAM) was also treading rough shod beseeched with multiple developmental challenges ( a few years down the line in 2008 , Project Trishul faced a closure as a technology demonstrator). Somehow Akash continued despite inordinate time and cost overruns and the single reason behind it was the spirit and confidence shown in the weapon system fundamentals by its successive Projectors. Talking of Project Directors, Dr Prahalada was succeeded by one very knowledgeable Dr Panyam ( may God bless his soul). At the time when Dr Panyam took over, Akash was riddled with multiple challenges. Dr Panyam brought a new life into the system based on his extensive grip over the guidance , control and propulsion technologies. Challenges still started in the eye. Around the same time the LRDE (and Radar Development Establishment) which was addressing the challenges of phased array and fire control radars started to see initial successes. Things were finally looking up as the missiles could now be gathered and there were no premature explosions, Once Dr Panyam passed , the reigns were taken over by Mr Chandramauli an equally competent Project Director. The journey here onwards was on an upswing. The weapon system went though a series of successful flight trials. In 2007 Indian Air Force completed the user trials for the missile. The recommendations for various improvements to be incorporated in the weapon system continued to be tested and validated years later. The Army version on mobile launchers was still some distance away in 2007 as the challenges of mobility and quick deployment were very huge. The years 2008-13 saw multiple validation tests addressing various challenges for the Army version. Cut to Feb 2024, 21 Feb to be exact, the Akash Army version had come a long way and was now deployed for pre-induction trails at the Integrated Test Range (ITR) at Chandipur Orissa. Four tests were planned 1. Low flying target at near; 2. A high altitude target at long range; 3. A crossing and approaching target and 4. A ripple firing test of two missiles from the same launcher on a receding target. The trials were a success. The final hurdle before induction was crossed. Few months later on 05 May 2015, dawned the day when Akash Missile system was finally inducted into the Army Air Defence. This humble self as the Director General of the Corps of Army Air Defence then, had the singular honour to receive the symbolic key of Akash from the then Chief of the Army Staff Gen Dalbir Singh Suhag. A dream had come true, A journey of three decades and more which had the lows, as much lows as the non-acceptance of the weapon system in the Army had finally reached the Zenith. Who knew at that time that this weapon system will prove its worth in the face of the enemy 10 year later! Akashe Shatrun Jahi. Induction ceremony Akash Weapon system into Army Air Defence 05 May 2015 Facebook Twitter Linkedin Email Disclaimer Views expressed above are the author's own.
New Indian Express
22-05-2025
- Politics
- New Indian Express
Discourse on Operation Sindoor missed non-contact warfare concept, says Gurumurthy
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The entire discourse on Operation Sindoor in the country, including the media, missed out on its key concept of non-contact warfare, said S Gurumurthy, chairman of Vivekananda International Foundation, a strategic think-tank. The transformation of the defence infrastructure to the non-contact war model under Prime Minister Narendra Modi is to be credited for the success of Operation Sindoor, he said, while delivering a talk on 'Operation Sindoor: Paradigm shift from candle light to BrahMos' at the Raj Bhavan on Wednesday. The non-contact warfare turned out to be advantageous for India as it did not require ground forces, he said, adding that the Pakistan Defence website in 2020 had described this warfare. 'It described the induction of long range missiles, high precision smart weapons, unmanned systems, robots and satellites primarily driven by technology and aimed at achieving a quick, decisive victory by remote delivery of destructive kinetic energy as 'non-contact warfare,' he said.
