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New York Times
06-05-2025
- Sport
- New York Times
Mets mailbag: Roster role for Luisangel Acuña, the next core of pitching prospects
We asked (for questions), and you answered (with questions, that we will now answer). In the first week of May, the Mets sit atop the standings in the National League East. However, the past week and a half brought some tumult with a 5-6 record over the last 11 games, and significant injuries to A.J. Minter, Danny Young and Jesse Winker. So Tim Britton and Will Sammon are here to address the most pressing issues. (Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.) Do you think Acuña will be the second baseman for the rest of the season? — Jbeningo1 Tim Britton: No, I don't. That's the short answer. The longer answer is that Carlos Mendoza and the Mets already have a blueprint for how this could work as a time-share from last season, when Jeff McNeil and José Iglesias split time at the keystone. McNeil and Iglesias shared second over a 69-game stretch last season. It started in mid-June, by which point Iglesias had shown he was off to an excellent start offensively. And it continued until McNeil's regular-season-ending injury in early September. In that stretch, McNeil made 36 starts to Iglesias' 33 at second base. Their versatility, though, permitted them to be in the lineup elsewhere: McNeil made 17 outfield starts and Iglesias 10 at third base. We're already seeing this play out now with McNeil and Acuña. In 11 games since McNeil's return, Acuña has made seven starts and McNeil four at second base. Acuña has also played third once, and McNeil the outfield four times. The injury to Jesse Winker does suggest more outfield time for McNeil is coming, but I don't think Acuña will be the everyday second baseman that entire time. Are the Mets eligible to receive a draft pick through the Prospect Promotion Initiative if Acuña wins NL Rookie of the Year? — Bryan G. TB: No, to be eligible for the PPI, a player must be a top-100 prospect at two of Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline. Acuña did not land on any of those lists. Why hasn't Brandon Sproat gotten any of the depth starter spot starts? — Sam G. Will Sammon: There are a few reasons. The pitchers chosen ahead of him outperformed him. The opening in the rotation didn't correspond well with his next start date. And he's been inconsistent. While Sproat has dominated previous levels, he has struggled in Triple A at times. He has a 5.48 ERA (23 innings). Unlike Blade Tidwell, who also had a high ERA but strong walk and strikeout rates, Sproat has 12 walks and 17 strikeouts. The stuff remains exciting. But I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Sproat switch up his usage and lean more on his secondary pitches. From 2020 to 2023, Brandon Nimmo was a center fielder. By 2023, he was considered an above-average defensive CF. After the 2022 season, we signed him to a huge contract partly because 'you have to pay CFs.' And then, after that contract, he is seemingly not allowed to play CF. What happened? Why can't he play CF anymore? — John F. TB: Major credit goes to the Mets and Nimmo for making him a serviceable and, yes, above-average center fielder in 2021 and 2022. But two important things happened since then, John. First, Nimmo was back to average or below in 2023, based on which metrics you prefer. And the decline in his sprint speed (smaller from 2023 to 2024, larger from 2024 to this season) suggests he would only regress more in center into the future. And second, the Mets changed heads of baseball operations, going from Billy Eppler (who signed Nimmo to that eight-year deal) to David Stearns (who didn't). This isn't to say Stearns doesn't like Nimmo as a player; however, Stearns has a track record of valuing defense in center field more than his peers (and more than Eppler). In Milwaukee, two of his biggest free-agent contracts were for Lorenzo Cain and Jackie Bradley Jr. So it was not a surprise when he surveyed the outfield landscape in the offseason after 2023 and thought the most prudent upgrade would not be a mashing corner outfielder — I was pushing Teoscar Hernández, which you have to admit would have been pretty wise — but an outstanding defensive center fielder. He landed on Harrison Bader with Tyrone Taylor as a backup plan, and he ran that plan back this year with Jose Siri replacing Bader. Nimmo can play center if needed, but it's pretty noteworthy that the Mets have opted for the inexperienced (and slower) McNeil there over him in the last couple of weeks. What are the chances that Ronny Mauricio gets some reps at center field as he works his way back up through the minors? — D.R. WS: Mauricio will stay on the infield until he's up to full speed. Mauricio's rehab assignment with St. Lucie started last week. He has played five innings each at second base, shortstop and third base. The Mets view him as an infielder. But a necessity in the outfield could cause Mauricio to spend some time there. Thirty-eight strikeouts in 21 innings? How long until Jonah Tong gets promoted to Triple A? — Chris T. WS: The Athletic's Keith Law ranked Tong as the Mets' eighth-best prospect. In Double A, he has a 3.38 ERA with — yes — 38 strikeouts in 21 1/3 innings. But he also has 14 walks. He needs to throw strikes more consistently. Sometimes, he gets on a good stretch and piles up strikes only to quickly lose that flow. Also, he's 21 and lacks pitching experience compared to someone like Sproat or Nolan McLean, who recently earned a promotion to Triple A. Mark Vientos has been struggling, both in the field and at the plate. If this level of performance continues, when might the Mets make a move to platoon him or possibly even get him back in the minors? — Emilie F. WS: We received several questions regarding Vientos. Over the long term, I'm interested in learning how long the Mets stick with him at third base because his defensive numbers remain dim. But I don't anticipate any drastic changes this early. I also don't agree with the sentiment of many questions regarding his offense. Yes, he is off to a slow start. But the notion that his numbers are worsening is wrong. Over his past 19 games heading into the Mets' series in Arizona, Vientos owns a .288/.346/.521 slash line with four home runs and a 23.5 percent strikeout rate (high, but still better than his 29.7 percent figure from last year). It's early May. He's 25. He hit 27 home runs last season. I understand the concern, especially on defense, but I wouldn't be panicking yet. Who do you see as the Mets' next potential pitching development breakout? — Ithti U. WS: Felipe De La Cruz, a 23-year-old lefty in Triple-A Syracuse. There's a real possibility he cracks the Mets' bullpen this season. In his Triple-A debut last week, De La Cruz tossed six scoreless innings with nine strikeouts. He allowed one hit. He is a great athlete who throws a four-seamer, two-seamer and slider. His fastball usually averages about 95 mph. Some evaluators suggested he may be capable of sitting at 97 mph in shorter stints. The Mets signed him in 2021 out of the Dominican Republic. At the time, he had minimal pitching experience. He has steadily improved over the last couple of years. Before his promotion, he had a 1.98 ERA in Double A with 20 strikeouts and just three walks in 13 2/3 innings. (Top photo of Luisangel Acuña: Dustin Satloff / Getty Images)
New York Times
19-03-2025
- Health
- New York Times
MLB insiders rank starting pitchers, from ‘just a guy' to No. 1
Editor's Note: This article is part of our Rankings & Tiers series, an evaluation across sport about the key players, front offices, teams, franchises and much more. By Andy McCullough, Will Sammon and Sahadev Sharma The email from the New York Yankees arrived just past 6 p.m. a little more than a week before the first game of the 2025 MLB season. The subject line was short but sinister, a harbinger of bad tidings for both the team and the sport writ large at the start of the year. Advertisement Update on RHP Gerrit Cole The news contained in the message was not a surprise. Cole — the 2023 American League Cy Young Award winner, once the recipient of the most lucrative pitching contract in baseball history, a paragon of good health and good habits — would require Tommy John surgery to repair his right elbow. He would not pitch in 2025. His return date was uncertain. His quest to help the Yankees capture a title would be delayed. His pursuit of the Hall of Fame would be paused. And once more, as has happened so often in recent years, the baseball season would begin with a reminder about the fragility of its most precious assets. Last year started with serious injuries to stars such as Shane Bieber and Spencer Strider. The prominence of the ailments prompted greater interest in a study commissioned by MLB to determine the root cause of rising injury rates. The study determined that increases in velocity, added emphasis on spin and training to throw with maximum effort were contributing to all the surgeries. In other words: the things that make pitchers great also make pitchers break. This is not an entirely new phenomenon. The task of pitching has always been unhealthy and unnatural, a race against the clock. Maybe the clock just ticks faster now. Maybe the hourglass contains less sand. All of this makes it harder to answer one of baseball's oldest questions: Who is an ace? The criteria used to be elevated but simple. An ace was dependable. An ace made life miserable for hitters. An ace avoided the injured list. An ace was the sort of pitcher whose name on the marquee in October inspired confidence in teammates and fans alike. For the past six years, The Athletic has been surveying experts around the game to determine who are the aces. Once again we convened a panel of 20, with expertise in scouting, player development and analytics. The executives, scouts and analysts we consulted were granted anonymity in order to offer opinions. Each member of the panel filled out a survey featuring 80 pitchers. The list included the top 50 in FanGraphs' version of wins above replacement in 2024, plus 30 others we thought merited consideration. To make things easier on our panel, we excluded pitchers who did not appear in 2024, which is why you won't see Shohei Ohtani, Strider or Eury Pérez on this list. (Because we do love to mystify our respondents, we continue to include Jacob deGrom.) Advertisement For each player, the panelist provided a scouting grade, from a No. 1 pitcher to a No. 5. This is the present-day grade on these pitchers: Who they are right now. If a respondent wanted to denote that the pitcher could one day become a No. 1, the grade included an asterisk, classifying status as an 'applicant.' The grading system is also straightforward. A No. 1 grade nets five points, a No. 2 grade nets four, No. 3 nets three, No. 4 nets two and No. 5 nets one. An asterisk adds a half point to the score. We culled the list down to a top 50, split into five tiers: Tier 1 (100) — The Inner Circle: The unanimous No. 1s. Tier 2 (99.5 to 90) — Aces: The pitchers you can trust all regular season and again in October. Tier 3 (89.5 to 80) — The Doorstep Knockers: The pitchers who might one day call themselves aces. Tier 4 (79.5 to 60) — No. 2s and No. 3s: Those with lower ceilings, but still elevated floors. It should be noted — these guys are awesome at baseball. Tier 5 (59.5 and below) — No. 4s and No. 5s: Everyone else. The players talented enough to reach and stick in the major leagues, but still a level below the elite. When we sent out these surveys in January and February, Cole was included. He received 14 No. 1 votes. Only three pitchers scored higher than him. But because he will not participate in the 2025 season, he won't be featured here. With that in mind, let's try to answer the question that changes each spring: Who are baseball's aces? The former teammates took a tumble last season. Scherzer was bedeviled by injuries. Verlander looked suddenly hittable. (Fellow future Cooperstown inductee Clayton Kershaw logged only 30 innings in 2024 and is currently recovering from multiple surgeries.) Yet both players merited sizable one-year contracts for 2025. Verlander will earn $15 million pitching in the Bay Area, in a ballpark that one evaluator suggested could aid a revival. The Blue Jays placed a $15.5 million wager on Scherzer remaining successful. 'Who knows?' one scout said. 'Could be a No. 1. Could be done.' If you're wondering why the Red Sox offered $21 million to a pitcher with a 5.38 ERA, look no further than the final inning of the 2024 season. Buehler emerged from the bullpen to slam the door on the Yankees and deliver a championship to Los Angeles. 'He gave you some reminders in October about how good he can be,' one scout said. Advertisement Few would question Buehler's gumption. But there are lingering concerns about his ability to handle the rigors of a big-league season, especially after two elbow reconstructions. Buehler, one evaluator explained, 'can be electric or can be lost.' He was one of the best pitchers in the sport from 2018 to 2021. 'Might not be a ton of staying power, but betting on one more good year out of him,' one scout said. In transitioning back to starting after a couple years in relief, López exceeded expectations in 2024, even if he did not log enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Unfortunately for him, our pool of respondents remains skeptical about his ability to repeat. 'He must be able to prove he can do it again, and for a full season,' one scout said. After Cole first got hurt last spring, Gil stabilized the Yankees' pitching staff and eventually won American League Rookie of the Year. But his results worsened as the season went along and scouts harbor concerns about his struggles throwing strikes. An even more ominous note was struck earlier this month, when Gil experienced a strained lat muscle. He will miss the first couple months of the season. Another talented youngster with some injury concerns. Bello will start the season on the injured list as he recovers from a sore shoulder. He got knocked around by left-handed hitters and does not really possess a strikeout pitch, our respondents noted. His second season in the Bronx went better than his first. Rodón made 32 starts for the first time in his career. At times, he looked like the pitcher who enticed the Yankees into a $162 million pact. But he is still far more homer-prone than he was during his peak in 2021 and 2022. With Cole out, the Yankees need him more than ever. 'In a career of ups and downs, does he have one more big ride up?' one scout wondered. Eflin is the most reliable starter on an Orioles team with championship aspirations. When he is healthy, one scout explained, he is 'the definition of a steady, middle-of-the-rotation guy.' Another scout described him as a 'kitchen-sink guy,' a pitcher lacking bat-missing pitches who could collapse if his command falters. Kikuchi parlayed a strong, 10-start stint with Houston after the trade deadline into a three-year, $63.7 million deal with the Angels. The Astros encouraged him to swap out sliders for curveballs, which led to 76 strikeouts in 60 innings. 'I'm buying the post-deadline Astros production,' one executive said. 'Kikuchi is nastier than he gets credit for.' Flaherty makes his triumphant return to this list. He ranked seventh in the inaugural edition and sixth in 2021. Back then, our respondents debated Flaherty versus Buehler as the best young pitcher in the sport. The next few years were problematic for both. Flaherty hurt his shoulder. He stopped missing bats. He flopped after the Cardinals traded him to Baltimore in 2023. Advertisement The 2024 season represented a comeback. With improved deception and sharpened command, Flaherty excelled in the opening months of his one-year contract with Detroit. The Dodgers acquired him to aid their patchwork rotation. Flaherty helped his childhood team win the World Series and joined in the city-wide jubilee. Yet a lucrative multiyear deal did not await him back on the market this winter. There were worries about his flagging velocity during the postseason. 'Absolutely no one is buying what this dude did in '24 as repeatable,' one scout said. The Tigers were happy to reunite with him on a two-year, $35 million contract. His command can be erratic and he gives up plenty of hits, but Gore took steps forward in 2024. Several scouts suggested he can grow into a reliable No. 3 starter, which is nothing to sneeze at. After Senga won the National League Rookie of the Year award in 2023, his second act was a bust. He appeared in just one regular-season game. He hurt his shoulder in the spring, strained his calf upon his summertime return and pitched only a handful of innings during the OMG Mets' run to the National League Championship Series. One scout suggested the Mets should shift to a six-man rotation to maximize Senga's ability. 'Let him pitch once a week,' the scout said. 'You'll get more out of him. He's electric when he's right.' With Framber Valdez poised to reach free agency, Brown could become the headliner of Houston's rotation after this season. Time is still on his side, although some of our respondents worried about his walk rate. 'He has stuff and deception, but we may be in a roller-coaster season each year until the command improves,' one scout said. With his new $75 million deal, Eovaldi is set to earn more than $200 million for his career. That's a hefty sum for a guy who has never thrown 200 innings in a season, never won 15 games and never finished in the top three in Cy Young voting. Why does Eovaldi keep getting paid? He delivers in October. He burnished his postseason legacy with a 2.95 ERA in six starts during Texas' 2023 World Series run. Eovaldi, one scout said, 'is a No. 1 in the playoffs.' Added another, Eovaldi's 'statistics are that of a No. 3, but there's few (other) guys you'd want in a big game because his stuff is still elite.' Peralta is a consistent package. A lot of strikeouts. A lot of walks. Too many dingers. He maintained his fastball velocity in 2024, which had been a concern earlier in his career. Miller is the first of many Mariners to make this list. Only Zack Wheeler and Tarik Skubal threw a more effective fastball last season than Miller's 95 mph heater, according to Sports Info Solutions. 'He throws 6 pitches with varying success, and yet it's the fastball that makes him successful,' one scout said. An uptick in home runs contributed to Gray's inflated ERA in 2024. He's reached the age where negative trends could signal catastrophe. But Gray has pulled himself back from the brink several times already in his career. Maybe he'll cut down on the dingers and get back to the form he displayed during his 2022-23 run with Minnesota. For more than a decade, every left-handed pitcher has looked into a mirror and thought, 'Maybe I should just rip off Chris Sale.' Last year Manaea became the first to actually succeed. After he started aping Sale's sidewinder delivery, Manaea posted a 3.09 ERA in his final 12 starts, which was enough to convince the Mets to bring him back on a three-year, $75 million deal. Advertisement Before his impersonation act took hold, Manaea was a serviceable if limited pitcher. One executive noted that Manaea benefited from a .215 batting average on balls in play in the second half, the sort of number that is hard to sustain. He'll also start the season on the injured list due to an oblique problem. 'Adjustments from last year are real,' one scout said. 'Health is a question.' His fastball misses bats. He throws strikes. He pitches in the American League Central. If Ryan can put together a healthy full season, he could rise on this list. Sánchez generated a lot of buzz from his Grapefruit League outings. His improved fastball velocity garnered notice, especially coming off such a successful season in 2024. One executive described him as 'the most underrated pitcher in baseball.' The executive went on to say that 'It's the Logan Webb mold of no walks and all grounders, but in the mid 90s from the left side.' Sánchez could zoom closer to the top of this list if he lives up to the hype. The trending arrows on Gausman are pointing downward as he enters the backstretch of his five-year, $110 million contract. His strikeout rate tumbled from 31.1 percent in 2023 to 21.4 percent in 2024. Hitters teed off on his sinker, which he incorporated into his mix to limit his reliance on four-seam fastballs and splitters. Even so — still a pretty good deal for the Blue Jays. Yet another young pitcher with arm problems. Rodriguez was shut down earlier this month after experiencing discomfort in his elbow. The Orioles have expressed optimism that Rodriguez will not require Tommy John surgery. The note remains ominous. The consistent struggles to stay on the field have limited his rise, several of our respondents noted. The underlying metrics suggest López performed in 2024 at about the same rate as he did in 2023, when he landed on a few American League Cy Young Award ballots. He has made 32 starts in each of the past three years. 'I'm still thinking he's got some premium seasons in him, even if 2024 wasn't amazing,' one scout said. Lugo is baseball's Patron Saint of Conversion. After five years as a low-leverage reliever for the Mets, he bet on his ability to shift back into starting in 2023. A solid season in San Diego set him up for a tremendous campaign with the Royals last season. Lugo finished second in American League Cy Young Award voting — not bad for a guy who used to pitch the sixth inning. He excelled by matching his nine-pitch arsenal to the weaknesses of hitters. Even those respondents who doubted Lugo's ability to repeat in 2025 commended him for the performance. 'He's fun to watch because he can really pitch and manipulate the baseball,' one scout said. In case you were wondering: Yes, all five members of Seattle's starting rotation made the cut. In an era when pitchers are using more offspeed pitches, Woo relies on his fastball. He rotates between four-seamers and sinkers. He generates more soft contact than whiffs. It's an interesting profile, if he can stay healthy. An elbow injury kept him on the shelf for more than a month in 2024. Several of our respondents noted that if Bibee played in a bigger market, he'd get more attention. Well, that's why this exercise exists. Part of the reason Bibee can't quite crack the realm of would-be aces is he 'doesn't quite have the s— to get there,' as one scout put it. So be it. He's still pretty good. His teammate Gavin Williams could join him on this list next year. Darvish spent a portion of 2024 away from the Padres, tending to a personal matter. When he returned, he displayed the same beguiling mixture of pitches and speeds that has made him so effective for more than a decade. The Dodgers took about two good swings against him in two postseason starts. Unfortunately for Darvish and San Diego, both of those swings resulted in homers in the decisive Game 5. Steele missed time last September with elbow tendonitis, but made it back for two starts before the season ended. He gets better results than some of our respondents would expect based on the quality of his arsenal. One executive compared Jones, the Robin to a certain Batman who will appear later on this list, to Strider. The approach is simple but deadly: Big fastball, heavy slider, lots of whiffs. Jones did not blow away big-league hitters in his debut season, but all the elements are there. 'Will he have the durability to reach the No. 1 ceiling?' the executive asked. Imanaga exceeded expectations during his first year in the States. Some folks who took our survey wondered if he would be more than a No. 5. Imanaga set aside those concerns by giving up only five runs during his first eight starts. He throws strikes and his sinker misses bats. There is still some skepticism in the scouting community about whether those first two months were a mirage. 'This guy is a testament to why plus makeup matters,' one scout said. King fractured his elbow in 2022 and underwent season-ending surgery. He remained committed to being a starting pitcher. A solid cameo in 2023 for the Yankees made him the centerpiece of the Juan Soto trade. King proceeded to flourish as a starter in San Diego. Advertisement Like a lot of former Yankees prospects, he slings his stuff from a low, deceptive arm slot. There remain concerns about his health, especially as he shoulders the starter's workload for a second time. If he can stay upright, he'll benefit on the open market after this season. 'I was skeptical he could make it work, and now he looks like he's a year away from $100 million [or more],' one executive said. The frantic scramble to sign Sasaki stemmed more from his age and his upside than his current ability. It is important to remember that last year did not go particularly well for him with the Chiba Lotte Marines. His fastball velocity dropped. His walk rate spiked. He made only 18 starts. 'There's more red flags here than we're used to seeing from recent uber talents from the NPB,' one executive said. And yet … well, the stuff is the stuff is the stuff. Sasaki opened eyes and buckled knees with his splitter in his Cactus League debut. 'His secondary pitches are as good as anyone on this list,' another executive said. 'And when you pair it with 100 mph …' Sasaki will face the same questions that all Japanese pitchers face upon joining Major League Baseball. He must adjust to a new schedule, a new baseball and a new level of competition. 'He'll wow regularly, but he's far from the finished product and still has to show he can post,' one scout said. Because of his employer and his stature back home, there will be heightened scrutiny. He also has to prove he can stay healthy. It is a hefty load for one young man to shoulder. All of this explains why such a highly coveted prospect did crack the top 20 on this list. How friendly to hitters is Great American Ball Park? Very, Greene might say. He posted a 2.05 ERA on the road and a 3.38 ERA at his home yard last season. It was his best campaign yet. It takes a while for high school pitchers to develop in professional ball, even those selected No. 2 overall, as Greene was back in 2017. He's made steady progress upward on this list. Schwellenbach filled the Spencer void for Atlanta in the wake of Strider's Tommy John surgery. Schwellenbach was a shortstop who closed at the University of Nebraska, which led one scout to ponder 'how much arm talent we've lost to players being terrible evaluators.' Really makes you think. Anyway, Schwellenbach rocketed through Atlanta's minor-league system before acquitting himself quite well in 21 starts as a rookie. His command has improved as he has gotten older. His splitter and slider are strong options. One executive described him as an 'elite competitor with really good stuff.' Castillo took a step back last year. He put up his worst fielding-independent ERA since 2018 and his lowest strikeout rate since that same season. A hamstring injury shortened his campaign. 'His age and the mileage are starting to take a toll on his stuff over an entire season,' one scout said. Our respondents are curious to see if he can stabilize at this level, which is still pretty good. Valdez just does his thing. You like grounders? This is the guy for you. He puts the ball on the ground and puts the ball on the ground and puts the ball on the ground. Since he joined the Astros rotation in 2020, he's put up a 3.12 ERA and received Cy Young Award votes in four separate seasons. 'Can he maintain this into his mid-30s?' one scout asked. If history is any guide, some team besides the Astros will pay to find out that answer. Two scouts used the same phrase to describe Gallen: 'Boring good.' It sounds like an insult. It's really a compliment. Gallen isn't an ace; his stuff doesn't astound hitters or evaluators. His command degraded last season, too. But he's still quite talented and effective. Only six pitchers have been more valuable than Gallen since 2022, according to FanGraphs. He can also become a free agent after this season. You know what being 'boring good' can make you? Stupid rich. 'My favorite thing about Nola,' one scout said, 'is how an entire city is so aware of the third-time-through-the-order penalty specifically because of him. Doing a public service by educating the masses.' It's true: Opposing hitters punched up an .824 OPS off Nola after 75 pitches in 2024. He does his best work in the early going. He bounced back after a shaky 2023 campaign, which still did not deter the Phillies from lavishing him with a $172 million contract. Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski 'has built a team that works in any era without being too cute about any of it,' one scout said. Nola is part of that. This man takes the baseball. He's made at least 32 starts in every full season dating to 2018. 'Metronome,' another scout called him. Some years are better than others. But his reliability enhances his value. Glasnow can generate elite fastball velocity. His curveball is wicked and so is his slider. He misses bats and produces grounders. He checks every box except for the one that matters most: Availability. 'Hard to depend on from a durability perspective,' one executive said. 'But the stuff is elite.' Advertisement This is not a new assessment. Folks in baseball have been saying this about Glasnow since he burst into prominence for Tampa Bay in 2019. The 2024 season only furthered this appraisal. After signing a $115 million extension with the Dodgers, Glasnow made his first All-Star team and set new career benchmarks for innings and starts (22). Even so, he did little to quell the main knock on him, because he got hurt again. An elbow injury kept him from contributing to the team's World Series run.'He's a premium arm (who throws) strikes with wipeout stuff,' one evaluator said, 'but the health will always be a major issue.' Will 2025 be different? 'He has No. 1 stuff,' another scout said, 'even if the production won't match because of (limited) innings.' One scout summed up the consensus view on Snell, the new $182 million man in Los Angeles: 'Hard to say a two-time Cy Young Award winner isn't a No. 1, but …' By now, dedicated baseball fans are familiar with the dings on Snell: He doesn't pitch deep into games. He doesn't attack hitters. He gets hurt fairly often. All the criticism is fair. The Dodgers, of course, are banking on these lines of rebuttal: Snell has avoided major arm problems in his career. He logged six innings or more in 10 of his 20 starts last season. And his stuff is still suffocating. Snell, one executive said, 'has matured a ton, and has a killer's mentality.' Two analysts, independent of one another, left a shrug emoji as commentary on deGrom. There are two poles of thought here. One scout pegged deGrom as an ace and insisted they 'will die on this hill until the stuff starts going in the wrong direction.' Another evaluator offered a solid retort: 'Actually pitching has to count.' He hasn't made more than 15 starts in a season since 2019, his last Cy Young campaign. But in those rare moments when deGrom is healthy and thriving? 'He's as good as anyone,' one executive said. Across the past three seasons, Webb has thrown 15 more innings than any other pitcher. He led the sport with 216 innings in 2023 and topped the National League again last season. In a shallow era, Webb goes deep. He turns pejoratives into compliments — a 'quality innings eater,' one scout called him. Another summed him up as a pitcher providing 'above-average performance with excellent durability.' Like many of his brethren, Kirby will start the season on the injured list. Shoulder inflammation is always worrisome. One thing is for sure: If he comes back healthy, he will be throwing strikes. He made 20 quality starts in 2024 while issuing 23 walks. 'Elite command with solid stuff,' one scout said. The pressure will be on Fried to replace Cole and excel during his first season in the Bronx. It's a tall task, especially when Fried has dealt with arm problems of his own. He does not accumulate as many strikeouts as the pitchers within the top 10, which is part of why our respondents continue to rate him as a classic No. 2 starter. If you watched Game 5 of the National League Division Series, you would understand why so much fanfare greeted Yamamoto's arrival in Major League Baseball. He subdued the Padres for five scoreless innings and exited to a standing ovation at Dodger Stadium. His next two outings pushed the team closer to a championship. 'I do really think he has special upside,' one scout said. Advertisement But if the Dodgers had fallen to San Diego in four games, folks across the South Bay and beyond might have been wondering why the team paid $325 million for a short guy who got hurt after learning to throw a slider. Yamamoto experienced a rocky regular season. He dealt with the same issues of acclimation that his new teammate Sasaki will face. He also damaged his shoulder, adding to worries about his size. Yamamoto, one evaluator said, has 'the stuff to be a No. 1, but not durable enough.' So now Yamamoto will enter year No. 2 of his 12-year contract. There will be far more attention devoted to Sasaki's debut and Ohtani's rehabilitation. The lack of a spotlight won't help Yamamoto stay healthy. But it could reduce the pressure Yamamoto admitted feeling at times last season. He ignored that burden during his star turn in October. He could do it again in 2025. 'If he can throw 165 innings,' a third scout said, 'he's a Cy Young candidate.' Added a fourth evaluator, 'I think this is the year where we get a better handle on how good he can be.' Gilbert has emerged as the best pitcher in the sport's best rotation, according to our panel, narrowly surpassing George Kirby. Gilbert's 6-foot-6 frame provides a bit more comfort about his ability to stay healthy. He has logged more than 185 innings in each of the past three seasons, while topping 200 for the first time last year. 'He's underrated because he doesn't post dominant ERAs,' one scout said. 'However the innings totals and ability to limit base runners is impressive.' As expected by our respondents, Cease bounced back with the Padres after a down year in Chicago in 2023. He got back to producing elite fastball velocity and finished fourth in National League Cy Young Award balloting. He profiles as a tweaked version of Snell — he's not as dominant as Snell, but he pitches more often. The story of Ragans offers both a reason for hope and a warning to any scouting director looking at a high school pitcher in the draft. The player might someday reach his ceiling. But there's a decent chance that player will reach it for some other team. The Texas Rangers, of course, should harbor little regret about their handling of Ragans, who they drafted in the first round in 2016. He missed multiple seasons as he underwent two separate Tommy John procedures. With the team pushing for a postseason berth in 2023, the front office dealt him to Kansas City for Aroldis Chapman, who helped Texas win its first World Series. Advertisement With the Royals, though, Ragans has blossomed into a budding ace. His 12-start performance in 2023 set the stage for a breakout last year. He ranked fourth among all pitchers in FanGraphs' version of WAR. He overpowered hitters with his 95 mph fastball and befuddled them with his changeup. One executive paid him a high compliment, describing Ragans as a 'workhorse, with upside for more.' We have reached the best of the best. Crochet will be a fascinating test case in 2025 as he pitches in higher-leverage situations in Boston. The White Sox fast-tracked him to the majors as a reliever in 2020 and kept him in the bullpen until he blew out in April 2022. He rehabbed and returned as a starter for 2024, at which point he proceeded to overwhelm opposing lineups for the first few months. He showed why, as one executive put it, he 'may be the best per-inning starter in baseball.' Through July, he had posted a 2.43 FIP with 160 strikeouts in 114 1/3 innings. But July was a weird one. Pitching for perhaps the worst team in baseball history, Crochet dampened his trade market by insisting he would not pitch for a contender in the postseason without the promise of a contract extension. It was a reasonable request for a player who sacrificed his ulnar collateral ligament while pitching out of the bullpen as a rookie. But it also tanked any chance of him escaping Chicago in 2024. The White Sox limited his innings in the final months of the season. Crochet posted a 4.83 ERA after the deadline. The late-season skid did not stop the Red Sox from bundling together several quality prospects to acquire him. Crochet still does not have the security of a long-term contract and there are still some questions about his ability to handle the increase in innings. But most members of our panel see him as a stud. 'He only needs a bit more seasoning to reach the elite level,' one evaluator said. Added a second scout, 'I guess you can still say 'prove it,' but hard to not say he's not a top 5 starter.' It looks more and more like the 2021 season, in which Burnes struck out 12.6 batters per nine innings with a 1.63 FIP and won the National League Cy Young Award, was an outlier. Burnes has not matched that output during the past few seasons. His fastball velocity is in decline. He struck out fewer than a batter per inning last year. The counter, of course is: So what? Advertisement During these past three seasons, Burnes ranked third in innings and seventh in ERA. Part of the explanation for his more pedestrian strikeout rate is more usage of his cutter, which he adopted in search of efficiency. Burnes cranked it up a notch for Baltimore in September, with a 1.20 ERA in five starts. 'He's still a top-5 pitcher in baseball, but it's becoming more about durability than dominance,' one executive said. The relative warts on his resume did not dissuade Arizona from offering him $210 million. 'I mean, he's not perfect,' one scout said. 'But maybe this is what aces are now?' By winning the National League Cy Young Award last fall, Sale checked off the last box missing on his Hall of Fame resume. He turned back the clock for most of the summer, displaying for Braves fans the monster who terrorized the American League for most of the 2010s. 'When he's dialed in, he's as tough an at-bat as can be,' one executive said. It was Sale's first full season since 2019 — even if it wasn't exactly a full season. He did not pitch during the final two weeks of the regular season, including getting scratched due to back issues for the finale as the Braves fought for postseason seeding. He did not pitch in the team's two-game Wild Card series. It was an unfortunate ending to an otherwise rousing comeback. Sale is, as one scout put it, 'a bit of a wild card from year to year.' When he's right, he's outstanding. But his body has been unreliable for so long. He achieved his status on this list as more of a valedictory note than anything else. 'He's a Hall of Famer who just won the Cy Young,' another executive said, 'so I don't have much of a choice but to call him an ace.' 'Hard to find someone better over the last five years or so,' one scout said. It's true. Since Wheeler joined the Phillies heading into 2020, no pitcher has been more valuable, according to FanGraphs. In that time frame, he ranks second in innings, sixth in ERA, third in FIP and sixth in strikeouts. He crushes junk food and opposing lineups with equal vigor. He brings it in October, too. Wheeler has posted a 2.18 ERA in his 12 postseason outings with Philadelphia. Advertisement 'The definition of a No. 1,' another evaluator said. 'Workhorse. Winner.' Added a third, 'I hope he does it forever.' In his big-league debut, Skenes looked like the pitcher who was promised. 'Hard to be even better than the hype,' one scout said. 'But I think he was.' The fastball touched 102 mph. The 'splinker' looked obscene. But it wasn't just the stuff. It was the results. He pitched into the sixth inning in 17 of his 23 outings. He gave up only two runs in his final five starts. He offered a beacon of hope to an otherwise moribund franchise. Because Skenes is a pitcher, in an age of heightened anxiety about injury risk, there was a sense of wonder and worry from our panel. How should the Pirates handle him? Can he stay healthy? In this era, it is hard to enjoy a shooting star. We know how fleeting they can be. 'There may be no single player whose own arm health is more important to the health of the sport,' one executive said. Let's hear it from the chorus. 'Best there is right now,' one scout said. 'Might be the best in the sport right now,' an executive said. 'You have access to his Baseball Savant, right?' another evaluator said. Indeed, we do. The data hub presents a crimson wave of positive indicators for Skubal. He throws strikes and misses bats. He avoids barrels and generates grounders. His offspeed arsenal is deep. And his heater? Skubal is, as another evaluator put it, 'a monster not afraid to challenge you with a 'f— you' fastball.' Skubal put it all together in 2024. He won the Triple Crown en route to his first Cy Young Award. If he can stay healthy, he might add a few more to his mantle before his time is up. Because right now, no one does it better. 'An ace in any era,' an evaluator said. The Rankings and Tiers series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Hunter Martin, Jason Miller, Justin K. Aller / Getty Images)
New York Times
19-03-2025
- Health
- New York Times
The 2025 Aces Project: MLB insiders rank starting pitchers, from ‘just a guy' to No. 1
Editor's Note: This article is part of our Rankings & Tiers series, an evaluation across sport about the key players, front offices, teams, franchises and much more. By Andy McCullough, Will Sammon and Sahadev Sharma The email from the New York Yankees arrived just past 6 p.m. a little more than a week before the first game of the 2025 MLB season. The subject line was short but sinister, a harbinger of bad tidings for both the team and the sport writ large at the start of the year. Advertisement Update on RHP Gerrit Cole The news contained in the message was not a surprise. Cole — the 2023 American League Cy Young Award winner, once the recipient of the most lucrative pitching contract in baseball history, a paragon of good health and good habits — would require Tommy John surgery to repair his right elbow. He would not pitch in 2025. His return date was uncertain. His quest to help the Yankees capture a title would be delayed. His pursuit of the Hall of Fame would be paused. And once more, as has happened so often in recent years, the baseball season would begin with a reminder about the fragility of its most precious assets. Last year started with serious injuries to stars such as Shane Bieber and Spencer Strider. The prominence of the ailments prompted greater interest in a study commissioned by MLB to determine the root cause of rising injury rates. The study determined that increases in velocity, added emphasis on spin and training to throw with maximum effort were contributing to all the surgeries. In other words: the things that make pitchers great also make pitchers break. This is not an entirely new phenomenon. The task of pitching has always been unhealthy and unnatural, a race against the clock. Maybe the clock just ticks faster now. Maybe the hourglass contains less sand. All of this makes it harder to answer one of baseball's oldest questions: Who is an ace? The criteria used to be elevated but simple. An ace was dependable. An ace made life miserable for hitters. An ace avoided the injured list. An ace was the sort of pitcher whose name on the marquee in October inspired confidence in teammates and fans alike. For the past six years, The Athletic has been surveying experts around the game to determine who are the aces. Once again we convened a panel of 20, with expertise in scouting, player development and analytics. The executives, scouts and analysts we consulted were granted anonymity in order to offer opinions. Each member of the panel filled out a survey featuring 80 pitchers. The list included the top 50 in FanGraphs' version of wins above replacement in 2024, plus 30 others we thought merited consideration. To make things easier on our panel, we excluded pitchers who did not appear in 2024, which is why you won't see Shohei Ohtani, Strider or Eury Pérez on this list. (Because we do love to mystify our respondents, we continue to include Jacob deGrom.) Advertisement For each player, the panelist provided a scouting grade, from a No. 1 pitcher to a No. 5. This is the present-day grade on these pitchers: Who they are right now. If a respondent wanted to denote that the pitcher could one day become a No. 1, the grade included an asterisk, classifying status as an 'applicant.' The grading system is also straightforward. A No. 1 grade nets five points, a No. 2 grade nets four, No. 3 nets three, No. 4 nets two and No. 5 nets one. An asterisk adds a half point to the score. We culled the list down to a top 50, split into five tiers: Tier 1 (100) — The Inner Circle: The unanimous No. 1s. Tier 2 (99.5 to 90) — Aces: The pitchers you can trust all regular season and again in October. Tier 3 (89.5 to 80) — The Doorstep Knockers: The pitchers who might one day call themselves aces. Tier 4 (79.5 to 60) — No. 2s and No. 3s: Those with lower ceilings, but still elevated floors. It should be noted — these guys are awesome at baseball. Tier 5 (59.5 and below) — No. 4s and No. 5s: Everyone else. The players talented enough to reach and stick in the major leagues, but still a level below the elite. When we sent out these surveys in January and February, Cole was included. He received 14 No. 1 votes. Only three pitchers scored higher than him. But because he will not participate in the 2025 season, he won't be featured here. With that in mind, let's try to answer the question that changes each spring: Who are baseball's aces? The former teammates took a tumble last season. Scherzer was bedeviled by injuries. Verlander looked suddenly hittable. (Fellow future Cooperstown inductee Clayton Kershaw logged only 30 innings in 2024 and is currently recovering from multiple surgeries.) Yet both players merited sizable one-year contracts for 2025. Verlander will earn $15 million pitching in the Bay Area, in a ballpark that one evaluator suggested could aid a revival. The Blue Jays placed a $15.5 million wager on Scherzer remaining successful. 'Who knows?' one scout said. 'Could be a No. 1. Could be done.' If you're wondering why the Red Sox offered $21 million to a pitcher with a 5.38 ERA, look no further than the final inning of the 2024 season. Buehler emerged from the bullpen to slam the door on the Yankees and deliver a championship to Los Angeles. 'He gave you some reminders in October about how good he can be,' one scout said. Advertisement Few would question Buehler's gumption. But there are lingering concerns about his ability to handle the rigors of a big-league season, especially after two elbow reconstructions. Buehler, one evaluator explained, 'can be electric or can be lost.' He was one of the best pitchers in the sport from 2018 to 2021. 'Might not be a ton of staying power, but betting on one more good year out of him,' one scout said. In transitioning back to starting after a couple years in relief, López exceeded expectations in 2024, even if he did not log enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. Unfortunately for him, our pool of respondents remains skeptical about his ability to repeat. 'He must be able to prove he can do it again, and for a full season,' one scout said. After Cole first got hurt last spring, Gil stabilized the Yankees' pitching staff and eventually won American League Rookie of the Year. But his results worsened as the season went along and scouts harbor concerns about his struggles throwing strikes. An even more ominous note was struck earlier this month, when Gil experienced a strained lat muscle. He will miss the first couple months of the season. Another talented youngster with some injury concerns. Bello will start the season on the injured list as he recovers from a sore shoulder. He got knocked around by left-handed hitters and does not really possess a strikeout pitch, our respondents noted. His second season in the Bronx went better than his first. Rodón made 32 starts for the first time in his career. At times, he looked like the pitcher who enticed the Yankees into a $162 million pact. But he is still far more homer-prone than he was during his peak in 2021 and 2022. With Cole out, the Yankees need him more than ever. 'In a career of ups and downs, does he have one more big ride up?' one scout wondered. Eflin is the most reliable starter on an Orioles team with championship aspirations. When he is healthy, one scout explained, he is 'the definition of a steady, middle-of-the-rotation guy.' Another scout described him as a 'kitchen-sink guy,' a pitcher lacking bat-missing pitches who could collapse if his command falters. Kikuchi parlayed a strong, 10-start stint with Houston after the trade deadline into a three-year, $63.7 million deal with the Angels. The Astros encouraged him to swap out sliders for curveballs, which led to 76 strikeouts in 60 innings. 'I'm buying the post-deadline Astros production,' one executive said. 'Kikuchi is nastier than he gets credit for.' Flaherty makes his triumphant return to this list. He ranked seventh in the inaugural edition and sixth in 2021. Back then, our respondents debated Flaherty versus Buehler as the best young pitcher in the sport. The next few years were problematic for both. Flaherty hurt his shoulder. He stopped missing bats. He flopped after the Cardinals traded him to Baltimore in 2023. Advertisement The 2024 season represented a comeback. With improved deception and sharpened command, Flaherty excelled in the opening months of his one-year contract with Detroit. The Dodgers acquired him to aid their patchwork rotation. Flaherty helped his childhood team win the World Series and joined in the city-wide jubilee. Yet a lucrative multiyear deal did not await him back on the market this winter. There were worries about his flagging velocity during the postseason. 'Absolutely no one is buying what this dude did in '24 as repeatable,' one scout said. The Tigers were happy to reunite with him on a two-year, $35 million contract. His command can be erratic and he gives up plenty of hits, but Gore took steps forward in 2024. Several scouts suggested he can grow into a reliable No. 3 starter, which is nothing to sneeze at. After Senga won the National League Rookie of the Year award in 2023, his second act was a bust. He appeared in just one regular-season game. He hurt his shoulder in the spring, strained his calf upon his summertime return and pitched only a handful of innings during the OMG Mets' run to the National League Championship Series. One scout suggested the Mets should shift to a six-man rotation to maximize Senga's ability. 'Let him pitch once a week,' the scout said. 'You'll get more out of him. He's electric when he's right.' With Framber Valdez poised to reach free agency, Brown could become the headliner of Houston's rotation after this season. Time is still on his side, although some of our respondents worried about his walk rate. 'He has stuff and deception, but we may be in a roller-coaster season each year until the command improves,' one scout said. With his new $75 million deal, Eovaldi is set to earn more than $200 million for his career. That's a hefty sum for a guy who has never thrown 200 innings in a season, never won 15 games and never finished in the top three in Cy Young voting. Why does Eovaldi keep getting paid? He delivers in October. He burnished his postseason legacy with a 2.95 ERA in six starts during Texas' 2023 World Series run. Eovaldi, one scout said, 'is a No. 1 in the playoffs.' Added another, Eovaldi's 'statistics are that of a No. 3, but there's few (other) guys you'd want in a big game because his stuff is still elite.' Peralta is a consistent package. A lot of strikeouts. A lot of walks. Too many dingers. He maintained his fastball velocity in 2024, which had been a concern earlier in his career. Miller is the first of many Mariners to make this list. Only Zack Wheeler and Tarik Skubal threw a more effective fastball last season than Miller's 95 mph heater, according to Sports Info Solutions. 'He throws 6 pitches with varying success, and yet it's the fastball that makes him successful,' one scout said. An uptick in home runs contributed to Gray's inflated ERA in 2024. He's reached the age where negative trends could signal catastrophe. But Gray has pulled himself back from the brink several times already in his career. Maybe he'll cut down on the dingers and get back to the form he displayed during his 2022-23 run with Minnesota. For more than a decade, every left-handed pitcher has looked into a mirror and thought, 'Maybe I should just rip off Chris Sale.' Last year Manaea became the first to actually succeed. After he started aping Sale's sidewinder delivery, Manaea posted a 3.09 ERA in his final 12 starts, which was enough to convince the Mets to bring him back on a three-year, $75 million deal. Advertisement Before his impersonation act took hold, Manaea was a serviceable if limited pitcher. One executive noted that Manaea benefited from a .215 batting average on balls in play in the second half, the sort of number that is hard to sustain. He'll also start the season on the injured list due to an oblique problem. 'Adjustments from last year are real,' one scout said. 'Health is a question.' His fastball misses bats. He throws strikes. He pitches in the American League Central. If Ryan can put together a healthy full season, he could rise on this list. Sánchez generated a lot of buzz from his Grapefruit League outings. His improved fastball velocity garnered notice, especially coming off such a successful season in 2024. One executive described him as 'the most underrated pitcher in baseball.' The executive went on to say that 'It's the Logan Webb mold of no walks and all grounders, but in the mid 90s from the left side.' Sánchez could zoom closer to the top of this list if he lives up to the hype. The trending arrows on Gausman are pointing downward as he enters the backstretch of his five-year, $110 million contract. His strikeout rate tumbled from 31.1 percent in 2023 to 21.4 percent in 2024. Hitters teed off on his sinker, which he incorporated into his mix to limit his reliance on four-seam fastballs and splitters. Even so — still a pretty good deal for the Blue Jays. Yet another young pitcher with arm problems. Rodriguez was shut down earlier this month after experiencing discomfort in his elbow. The Orioles have expressed optimism that Rodriguez will not require Tommy John surgery. The note remains ominous. The consistent struggles to stay on the field have limited his rise, several of our respondents noted. The underlying metrics suggest López performed in 2024 at about the same rate as he did in 2023, when he landed on a few American League Cy Young Award ballots. He has made 32 starts in each of the past three years. 'I'm still thinking he's got some premium seasons in him, even if 2024 wasn't amazing,' one scout said. Lugo is baseball's Patron Saint of Conversion. After five years as a low-leverage reliever for the Mets, he bet on his ability to shift back into starting in 2023. A solid season in San Diego set him up for a tremendous campaign with the Royals last season. Lugo finished second in American League Cy Young Award voting — not bad for a guy who used to pitch the sixth inning. He excelled by matching his nine-pitch arsenal to the weaknesses of hitters. Even those respondents who doubted Lugo's ability to repeat in 2025 commended him for the performance. 'He's fun to watch because he can really pitch and manipulate the baseball,' one scout said. In case you were wondering: Yes, all five members of Seattle's starting rotation made the cut. In an era when pitchers are using more offspeed pitches, Woo relies on his fastball. He rotates between four-seamers and sinkers. He generates more soft contact than whiffs. It's an interesting profile, if he can stay healthy. An elbow injury kept him on the shelf for more than a month in 2024. Several of our respondents noted that if Bibee played in a bigger market, he'd get more attention. Well, that's why this exercise exists. Part of the reason Bibee can't quite crack the realm of would-be aces is he 'doesn't quite have the s— to get there,' as one scout put it. So be it. He's still pretty good. His teammate Gavin Williams could join him on this list next year. Darvish spent a portion of 2024 away from the Padres, tending to a personal matter. When he returned, he displayed the same beguiling mixture of pitches and speeds that has made him so effective for more than a decade. The Dodgers took about two good swings against him in two postseason starts. Unfortunately for Darvish and San Diego, both of those swings resulted in homers in the decisive Game 5. Steele missed time last September with elbow tendonitis, but made it back for two starts before the season ended. He gets better results than some of our respondents would expect based on the quality of his arsenal. One executive compared Jones, the Robin to a certain Batman who will appear later on this list, to Strider. The approach is simple but deadly: Big fastball, heavy slider, lots of whiffs. Jones did not blow away big-league hitters in his debut season, but all the elements are there. 'Will he have the durability to reach the No. 1 ceiling?' the executive asked. Imanaga exceeded expectations during his first year in the States. Some folks who took our survey wondered if he would be more than a No. 5. Imanaga set aside those concerns by giving up only five runs during his first eight starts. He throws strikes and his sinker misses bats. There is still some skepticism in the scouting community about whether those first two months were a mirage. 'This guy is a testament to why plus makeup matters,' one scout said. King fractured his elbow in 2022 and underwent season-ending surgery. He remained committed to being a starting pitcher. A solid cameo in 2023 for the Yankees made him the centerpiece of the Juan Soto trade. King proceeded to flourish as a starter in San Diego. Advertisement Like a lot of former Yankees prospects, he slings his stuff from a low, deceptive arm slot. There remain concerns about his health, especially as he shoulders the starter's workload for a second time. If he can stay upright, he'll benefit on the open market after this season. 'I was skeptical he could make it work, and now he looks like he's a year away from $100 million [or more],' one executive said. The frantic scramble to sign Sasaki stemmed more from his age and his upside than his current ability. It is important to remember that last year did not go particularly well for him with the Chiba Lotte Marines. His fastball velocity dropped. His walk rate spiked. He made only 18 starts. 'There's more red flags here than we're used to seeing from recent uber talents from the NPB,' one executive said. And yet … well, the stuff is the stuff is the stuff. Sasaki opened eyes and buckled knees with his splitter in his Cactus League debut. 'His secondary pitches are as good as anyone on this list,' another executive said. 'And when you pair it with 100 mph …' Sasaki will face the same questions that all Japanese pitchers face upon joining Major League Baseball. He must adjust to a new schedule, a new baseball and a new level of competition. 'He'll wow regularly, but he's far from the finished product and still has to show he can post,' one scout said. Because of his employer and his stature back home, there will be heightened scrutiny. He also has to prove he can stay healthy. It is a hefty load for one young man to shoulder. All of this explains why such a highly coveted prospect did crack the top 20 on this list. How friendly to hitters is Great American Ball Park? Very, Greene might say. He posted a 2.05 ERA on the road and a 3.38 ERA at his home yard last season. It was his best campaign yet. It takes a while for high school pitchers to develop in professional ball, even those selected No. 2 overall, as Greene was back in 2017. He's made steady progress upward on this list. Schwellenbach filled the Spencer void for Atlanta in the wake of Strider's Tommy John surgery. Schwellenbach was a shortstop who closed at the University of Nebraska, which led one scout to ponder 'how much arm talent we've lost to players being terrible evaluators.' Really makes you think. Anyway, Schwellenbach rocketed through Atlanta's minor-league system before acquitting himself quite well in 21 starts as a rookie. His command has improved as he has gotten older. His splitter and slider are strong options. One executive described him as an 'elite competitor with really good stuff.' Castillo took a step back last year. He put up his worst fielding-independent ERA since 2018 and his lowest strikeout rate since that same season. A hamstring injury shortened his campaign. 'His age and the mileage are starting to take a toll on his stuff over an entire season,' one scout said. Our respondents are curious to see if he can stabilize at this level, which is still pretty good. Valdez just does his thing. You like grounders? This is the guy for you. He puts the ball on the ground and puts the ball on the ground and puts the ball on the ground. Since he joined the Astros rotation in 2020, he's put up a 3.12 ERA and received Cy Young Award votes in four separate seasons. 'Can he maintain this into his mid-30s?' one scout asked. If history is any guide, some team besides the Astros will pay to find out that answer. Two scouts used the same phrase to describe Gallen: 'Boring good.' It sounds like an insult. It's really a compliment. Gallen isn't an ace; his stuff doesn't astound hitters or evaluators. His command degraded last season, too. But he's still quite talented and effective. Only six pitchers have been more valuable than Gallen since 2022, according to FanGraphs. He can also become a free agent after this season. You know what being 'boring good' can make you? Stupid rich. 'My favorite thing about Nola,' one scout said, 'is how an entire city is so aware of the third-time-through-the-order penalty specifically because of him. Doing a public service by educating the masses.' It's true: Opposing hitters punched up an .824 OPS off Nola after 75 pitches in 2024. He does his best work in the early going. He bounced back after a shaky 2023 campaign, which still did not deter the Phillies from lavishing him with a $172 million contract. Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski 'has built a team that works in any era without being too cute about any of it,' one scout said. Nola is part of that. This man takes the baseball. He's made at least 32 starts in every full season dating to 2018. 'Metronome,' another scout called him. Some years are better than others. But his reliability enhances his value. Glasnow can generate elite fastball velocity. His curveball is wicked and so is his slider. He misses bats and produces grounders. He checks every box except for the one that matters most: Availability. 'Hard to depend on from a durability perspective,' one executive said. 'But the stuff is elite.' Advertisement This is not a new assessment. Folks in baseball have been saying this about Glasnow since he burst into prominence for Tampa Bay in 2019. The 2024 season only furthered this appraisal. After signing a $115 million extension with the Dodgers, Glasnow made his first All-Star team and set new career benchmarks for innings and starts (22). Even so, he did little to quell the main knock on him, because he got hurt again. An elbow injury kept him from contributing to the team's World Series run.'He's a premium arm (who throws) strikes with wipeout stuff,' one evaluator said, 'but the health will always be a major issue.' Will 2025 be different? 'He has No. 1 stuff,' another scout said, 'even if the production won't match because of (limited) innings.' One scout summed up the consensus view on Snell, the new $182 million man in Los Angeles: 'Hard to say a two-time Cy Young Award winner isn't a No. 1, but …' By now, dedicated baseball fans are familiar with the dings on Snell: He doesn't pitch deep into games. He doesn't attack hitters. He gets hurt fairly often. All the criticism is fair. The Dodgers, of course, are banking on these lines of rebuttal: Snell has avoided major arm problems in his career. He logged six innings or more in 10 of his 20 starts last season. And his stuff is still suffocating. Snell, one executive said, 'has matured a ton, and has a killer's mentality.' Two analysts, independent of one another, left a shrug emoji as commentary on deGrom. There are two poles of thought here. One scout pegged deGrom as an ace and insisted they 'will die on this hill until the stuff starts going in the wrong direction.' Another evaluator offered a solid retort: 'Actually pitching has to count.' He hasn't made more than 15 starts in a season since 2019, his last Cy Young campaign. But in those rare moments when deGrom is healthy and thriving? 'He's as good as anyone,' one executive said. Across the past three seasons, Webb has thrown 15 more innings than any other pitcher. He led the sport with 216 innings in 2023 and topped the National League again last season. In a shallow era, Webb goes deep. He turns pejoratives into compliments — a 'quality innings eater,' one scout called him. Another summed him up as a pitcher providing 'above-average performance with excellent durability.' Like many of his brethren, Kirby will start the season on the injured list. Shoulder inflammation is always worrisome. One thing is for sure: If he comes back healthy, he will be throwing strikes. He made 20 quality starts in 2024 while issuing 23 walks. 'Elite command with solid stuff,' one scout said. The pressure will be on Fried to replace Cole and excel during his first season in the Bronx. It's a tall task, especially when Fried has dealt with arm problems of his own. He does not accumulate as many strikeouts as the pitchers within the top 10, which is part of why our respondents continue to rate him as a classic No. 2 starter. If you watched Game 5 of the National League Division Series, you would understand why so much fanfare greeted Yamamoto's arrival in Major League Baseball. He subdued the Padres for five scoreless innings and exited to a standing ovation at Dodger Stadium. His next two outings pushed the team closer to a championship. 'I do really think he has special upside,' one scout said. Advertisement But if the Dodgers had fallen to San Diego in four games, folks across the South Bay and beyond might have been wondering why the team paid $325 million for a short guy who got hurt after learning to throw a slider. Yamamoto experienced a rocky regular season. He dealt with the same issues of acclimation that his new teammate Sasaki will face. He also damaged his shoulder, adding to worries about his size. Yamamoto, one evaluator said, has 'the stuff to be a No. 1, but not durable enough.' So now Yamamoto will enter year No. 2 of his 12-year contract. There will be far more attention devoted to Sasaki's debut and Ohtani's rehabilitation. The lack of a spotlight won't help Yamamoto stay healthy. But it could reduce the pressure Yamamoto admitted feeling at times last season. He ignored that burden during his star turn in October. He could do it again in 2025. 'If he can throw 165 innings,' a third scout said, 'he's a Cy Young candidate.' Added a fourth evaluator, 'I think this is the year where we get a better handle on how good he can be.' Gilbert has emerged as the best pitcher in the sport's best rotation, according to our panel, narrowly surpassing George Kirby. Gilbert's 6-foot-6 frame provides a bit more comfort about his ability to stay healthy. He has logged more than 185 innings in each of the past three seasons, while topping 200 for the first time last year. 'He's underrated because he doesn't post dominant ERAs,' one scout said. 'However the innings totals and ability to limit base runners is impressive.' As expected by our respondents, Cease bounced back with the Padres after a down year in Chicago in 2023. He got back to producing elite fastball velocity and finished fourth in National League Cy Young Award balloting. He profiles as a tweaked version of Snell — he's not as dominant as Snell, but he pitches more often. The story of Ragans offers both a reason for hope and a warning to any scouting director looking at a high school pitcher in the draft. The player might someday reach his ceiling. But there's a decent chance that player will reach it for some other team. The Texas Rangers, of course, should harbor little regret about their handling of Ragans, who they drafted in the first round in 2016. He missed multiple seasons as he underwent two separate Tommy John procedures. With the team pushing for a postseason berth in 2023, the front office dealt him to Kansas City for Aroldis Chapman, who helped Texas win its first World Series. Advertisement With the Royals, though, Ragans has blossomed into a budding ace. His 12-start performance in 2023 set the stage for a breakout last year. He ranked fourth among all pitchers in FanGraphs' version of WAR. He overpowered hitters with his 95 mph fastball and befuddled them with his changeup. One executive paid him a high compliment, describing Ragans as a 'workhorse, with upside for more.' We have reached the best of the best. Crochet will be a fascinating test case in 2025 as he pitches in higher-leverage situations in Boston. The White Sox fast-tracked him to the majors as a reliever in 2020 and kept him in the bullpen until he blew out in April 2022. He rehabbed and returned as a starter for 2024, at which point he proceeded to overwhelm opposing lineups for the first few months. He showed why, as one executive put it, he 'may be the best per-inning starter in baseball.' Through July, he had posted a 2.43 FIP with 160 strikeouts in 114 1/3 innings. But July was a weird one. Pitching for perhaps the worst team in baseball history, Crochet dampened his trade market by insisting he would not pitch for a contender in the postseason without the promise of a contract extension. It was a reasonable request for a player who sacrificed his ulnar collateral ligament while pitching out of the bullpen as a rookie. But it also tanked any chance of him escaping Chicago in 2024. The White Sox limited his innings in the final months of the season. Crochet posted a 4.83 ERA after the deadline. The late-season skid did not stop the Red Sox from bundling together several quality prospects to acquire him. Crochet still does not have the security of a long-term contract and there are still some questions about his ability to handle the increase in innings. But most members of our panel see him as a stud. 'He only needs a bit more seasoning to reach the elite level,' one evaluator said. Added a second scout, 'I guess you can still say 'prove it,' but hard to not say he's not a top 5 starter.' It looks more and more like the 2021 season, in which Burnes struck out 12.6 batters per nine innings with a 1.63 FIP and won the National League Cy Young Award, was an outlier. Burnes has not matched that output during the past few seasons. His fastball velocity is in decline. He struck out fewer than a batter per inning last year. The counter, of course is: So what? Advertisement During these past three seasons, Burnes ranked third in innings and seventh in ERA. Part of the explanation for his more pedestrian strikeout rate is more usage of his cutter, which he adopted in search of efficiency. Burnes cranked it up a notch for Baltimore in September, with a 1.20 ERA in five starts. 'He's still a top-5 pitcher in baseball, but it's becoming more about durability than dominance,' one executive said. The relative warts on his resume did not dissuade Arizona from offering him $210 million. 'I mean, he's not perfect,' one scout said. 'But maybe this is what aces are now?' By winning the National League Cy Young Award last fall, Sale checked off the last box missing on his Hall of Fame resume. He turned back the clock for most of the summer, displaying for Braves fans the monster who terrorized the American League for most of the 2010s. 'When he's dialed in, he's as tough an at-bat as can be,' one executive said. It was Sale's first full season since 2019 — even if it wasn't exactly a full season. He did not pitch during the final two weeks of the regular season, including getting scratched due to back issues for the finale as the Braves fought for postseason seeding. He did not pitch in the team's two-game Wild Card series. It was an unfortunate ending to an otherwise rousing comeback. Sale is, as one scout put it, 'a bit of a wild card from year to year.' When he's right, he's outstanding. But his body has been unreliable for so long. He achieved his status on this list as more of a valedictory note than anything else. 'He's a Hall of Famer who just won the Cy Young,' another executive said, 'so I don't have much of a choice but to call him an ace.' 'Hard to find someone better over the last five years or so,' one scout said. It's true. Since Wheeler joined the Phillies heading into 2020, no pitcher has been more valuable, according to FanGraphs. In that time frame, he ranks second in innings, sixth in ERA, third in FIP and sixth in strikeouts. He crushes junk food and opposing lineups with equal vigor. He brings it in October, too. Wheeler has posted a 2.18 ERA in his 12 postseason outings with Philadelphia. Advertisement 'The definition of a No. 1,' another evaluator said. 'Workhorse. Winner.' Added a third, 'I hope he does it forever.' In his big-league debut, Skenes looked like the pitcher who was promised. 'Hard to be even better than the hype,' one scout said. 'But I think he was.' The fastball touched 102 mph. The 'splinker' looked obscene. But it wasn't just the stuff. It was the results. He pitched into the sixth inning in 17 of his 23 outings. He gave up only two runs in his final five starts. He offered a beacon of hope to an otherwise moribund franchise. Because Skenes is a pitcher, in an age of heightened anxiety about injury risk, there was a sense of wonder and worry from our panel. How should the Pirates handle him? Can he stay healthy? In this era, it is hard to enjoy a shooting star. We know how fleeting they can be. 'There may be no single player whose own arm health is more important to the health of the sport,' one executive said. Let's hear it from the chorus. 'Best there is right now,' one scout said. 'Might be the best in the sport right now,' an executive said. 'You have access to his Baseball Savant, right?' another evaluator said. Indeed, we do. The data hub presents a crimson wave of positive indicators for Skubal. He throws strikes and misses bats. He avoids barrels and generates grounders. His offspeed arsenal is deep. And his heater? Skubal is, as another evaluator put it, 'a monster not afraid to challenge you with a 'f— you' fastball.' Skubal put it all together in 2024. He won the Triple Crown en route to his first Cy Young Award. If he can stay healthy, he might add a few more to his mantle before his time is up. Because right now, no one does it better. 'An ace in any era,' an evaluator said. The Rankings and Tiers series is sponsored by E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Sponsors have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication. (Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Photos: Hunter Martin, Jason Miller, Justin K. Aller / Getty Images)
