MLB trade deadline watch: Bubble teams have execs prepared for slow-developing market

New York Times

11-07-2025

MLB trade deadline watch is a collection of news and notes from our reporting team of Patrick Mooney, Will Sammon, Katie Woo and Ken Rosenthal.
As major-league executives prepare for the looming July 31 trade deadline, an uncertain market remains a point of frustration.
Club officials have lamented the lack of clarity regarding this year's market, pointing towards an influx of bubble teams as the reason. With a weekend of play remaining before the All-Star break, only a handful of teams have emerged as true buyers or sellers. The rest remain mired in gridlock.
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Several teams are hovering right at or above .500. Others are a few games below, but remain in the hunt for a postseason spot. The congestion in the standings has created a logjam.
The result? Instead of committing to a direction, many teams remain in a holding pattern.
Or, as one executive said to his staff recently: 'Don't count on this being a super exciting deadline for us.'
Heading into play Friday, seven teams were separated by seven games in the National League wild-card standings. The American League is a bit more spread out, but multiple sub-.500 teams are fewer than five games out of the final two spots. Either way, the sentiment remains. The number of teams hovering near contention will make for a slow-developing market, multiple executives said.
'I do think it's going to be late,' one AL official said. 'It's going to be challenging. The bunch of teams is why you're not seeing much discussions taking place right now.'
Some of the established buyers know what they need. The Philadelphia Phillies will again target bullpen help and a right-handed bat, but unlike years prior, they could be willing to move bigger prospects to net a better return. New York Yankees general manager Brian Cashman said he'll be 'going to town' at the deadline and will look to add a starting pitcher and perhaps some help at third base.
The Chicago Cubs need starting pitching as well. The Tampa Bay Rays need relief help, as advertised by their acquisition of Bryan Baker from the Baltimore Orioles — a team that could emerge as a more serious seller.
But the already-established sellers don't have much to offer, lament multiple executives. The Colorado Rockies are fairly picked over. The Washington Nationals likely won't make any franchise-altering moves with an interim general manager. The Chicago White Sox could once again dangle Luis Robert Jr., but it's hard to maximize the return for an oft-injured player who's hitting .185. The Miami Marlins have desirable pitching in starters Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera, but they own the leverage in what is always the most coveted area at the deadline.
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For the market to be fully defined, bubble teams will have to commit. The Cincinnati Reds and the Arizona Diamondbacks (despite being ravaged by injuries) have hung around .500 for most of the year. The Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, Minnesota Twins and Texas Rangers are all under .500, but they are all fewer than four games out of a wild-card spot. The St. Louis Cardinals have been one of baseball's more surprising teams, and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said he'd be willing to head into the final 72 hours before making a decision. He's far from the only executive willing to wait.
'I think that's why the trading deadline has become so much fun,' Mozeliak said. 'In the past, those bubble GM types would just stay put. Now, you're seeing a lot of moving parts. Part of that is because they are kind of in, kind of out.'
Fun is one way to describe it. Complex is another.
Multiple officials floated the idea that acquiring 'rentals' might not be as prominent this year, citing that teams will instead have to be creative due to a lack of options. Some bubble teams will declare themselves over the next couple of weeks. The timing of MLB's annual amateur draft on Sunday and Monday also pauses discussions.
'The way the calendar is set up with the draft, there's sort of this awkward (break),' Mozeliak said. 'But right after the draft, there will start to be a much more feverish pitch.'
Just how feverish remains to be seen. The Royals are in the market for a bat and likely won't deviate from their starting-pitching surplus, but they probably won't be as aggressive at this deadline compared to last season. Their division counterparts, the Twins and Cleveland Guardians, look like holders, for now.
The Orioles and Atlanta Braves, two teams expected to be contenders this year, might be headed in different directions. The Braves could be inclined to view their disappointing season as a one-off and hold on to talent, while Baltimore's trade of Baker could signify a sell-off that the team did not envision at the start of the season.
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St. Louis is another club that could alter the outlook of the market, should it decide to sell.
'The Cardinals can be a linchpin for a lot of teams,' one executive mused. 'They have a lot of players teams are interested in.'
Once the second half begins, the outlook on most fringe teams will hinge on performance. Officials believe the final week of the deadline will bring much more clarity to the market and expect a frenzy to occur. Until then, don't expect much traction.
'There's three or four teams that think they're going to buy,' one league source said. 'They're going to sell. There's a lot of teams at that margin that are going to flip.'
(Top photo of Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Josh Naylor: Chris Coduto / Getty Images)