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Scroll.in
4 days ago
- Business
- Scroll.in
China steps as subsidies, incentives as birthrate plunges – but nothing seems to be helping
China's central government introduced a childcare subsidy on July 28 that will provide families with 3,000 yuan (around £312) a year for each child under the age of three. The announcement came days after plans were unveiled to roll out free preschool education across the country. These developments mark a shift from previous years, when the government largely left the issue of addressing China's declining birth rate to local authorities. Many of those efforts, which range from cash incentives to housing subsidies, have made little difference. By stepping in directly, Beijing has signalled that it sees the situation as urgent. Fewer Chinese women are choosing to have children, and more young people are delaying or opting out of marriage. This has contributed to a situation where China's population shrank for a third consecutive year in 2024. An ageing population and shrinking workforce pose long-term challenges for China's economic growth, as well as its healthcare and pension systems. Before the central government's recent roll-out, regions in China had already been experimenting with policies to increase birth rates. These include one-time payouts for second or third children, monthly allowances and housing and job training subsidies. One of the most eye-catching local policies came from Hohhot, the capital city of Inner Mongolia province. In March 2025, the authorities there began offering families up to 100,000 yuan (£10,400) for having a second and third child, paid annually until the children turn 10. The authorities in some other cities, including eastern China's Hangzhou, have offered childcare vouchers or subsidies for daycare. Policies like these have seen the number of births increase slightly in a few regions. But uptake is generally low and none have managed to change the national picture. There are several reasons why incentive-based policies have not moved the needle. First, the subsidies are generally small – often equivalent to just a few hundred US dollars. This barely makes a dent in the cost of raising a child in urban China. China ranks among the most expensive countries in the world for child-rearing, surpassing the US and Japan. In fact, a 2024 report by the Beijing-based YuWa Population Research Institute found that the average cost of raising a child in China until the age of 18 is 538,000 yuan (£59,275). This is more than 6.3 times as high as China's GDP per capita. The burden is so widely felt that people in China jokingly refer to children as tunjinshou, which translates to 'gold-devouring beasts'. Second, the incentives largely don't address deeper issues. These include expensive housing, intense education pressures, childcare shortages and some workplaces that penalise women for taking time off. Many Chinese women fear being pushed out of their jobs simply for having kids. Some local authorities have attempted to tackle the structural realities that make having and raising children in China difficult, and have enjoyed some success. In Tianmen, for example, parents of a third child can claim US$16,500 (£12,500) off a new home. However, these policies are confined to specific districts and villages or are limited to select groups. Support remains fragmented and insufficient, while the prospects of scaling these piecemeal initiatives nationwide are slim. Third, gender inequality in China is still deeply entrenched. Women carry most of the childcare and housework burden, with parental leave policies reflecting that imbalance. While mothers are allowed between 128 to 158 days of maternity leave, fathers receive only a handful – varying slightly by province. Despite public calls for equal parental leave, major legal changes seem far off. These factors have together given rise to a situation where, as in east Asia more broadly, many young people in China simply are not interested in marrying or having children. According to one online survey from 2022, around 90% of respondents in China said they wouldn't consider having more children even if they were offered an annual subsidy of 12,000 yuan (£1,250) – far more than the recently announced 3,000 yuan subsidy. Is Beijing too late? The new measures show that Beijing is taking China's declining birth rate seriously. But it might be too late. Fertility decline is hard to reverse, with research showing that social norms are difficult to snap back once they shift away from having children. South Korea has spent decades offering its citizens generous subsidies, housing support and extended parental leave. Yet, despite a recent uptick, its birth rate has remained among the lowest in the world. Projections by the UN paint a stark picture. China's population is expected to drop by 204 million people between 2024 and 2054. It could lose 786 million people by the end of the century, returning its population to levels last seen in the 1950s. Still, the recent announcements are significant. They are the first time the central government has directly used fiscal tools to encourage births, and reflect a consensus that lowering the cost of preschool education can help boost fertility. This sets a precedent and, if urgency keeps rising, the size and scope of support may increase as well. However, if China hopes to turn things around, it will need more than cash. Parenting must be made truly viable and even desirable. Alongside financial aid and free preschool, families need time and labour support. This also means confronting cultural expectations. Raising a child shouldn't be seen as a woman's job alone. A real cultural shift is needed – one that treats parenting as a shared responsibility. My generation, which was born under the one-child policy, grew up in a time where siblings were heavily fined. I was one of them. But, just as fines didn't stop all of those who wanted more children, cash rewards will not easily convince the many who don't.
News18
4 days ago
- Business
- News18
China's Birth Rate Is Plummeting: Can Cash Subsidies Reverse A Deepening Demographic Crisis?
Last Updated: If current trends continue, China's population could shrink to levels last seen in the 1950s, UN projections show For the third year in a row, China's population is shrinking. The country recorded a drop of 1.39 million people in 2024, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, bringing its total population to 1.408 billion. This follows an even steeper fall in 2023, when numbers fell by 2.08 million, marking the fastest decline in over six decades. Births are not just falling behind deaths; they're disappearing from the national imagination. Now, Beijing is finally making its move. On July 28, the Chinese government announced a nationwide childcare subsidy of 3,600 yuan (£376) per year for every child under the age of three. The scheme, backdated to January 2025, will also offer partial payouts to children born between 2022 and 2024. Crucially, the subsidies will not count as taxable income or affect poverty assistance eligibility, signalling that the state wants uptake, not bureaucracy. This is a sharp departure from past policy, where the onus of boosting fertility was left to provincial and city-level governments. In the last few years, over 20 regions have launched their own piecemeal incentives — housing discounts, monthly allowances, baby bonuses — but none have managed to reverse the trend. By stepping in directly, Beijing has signalled that it now considers the collapsing birth rate not just a demographic concern, but a national emergency. At stake is not just the country's economic growth, but the future of its labour force, pension systems, and healthcare infrastructure. An ageing China, shrinking at the base and ballooning at the top, risks becoming old before it becomes rich. Why Aren't People Having Children In China? The numbers tell only part of the story. Underneath the decline is a deep and perhaps irreversible cultural shift. First, marriage itself is in decline. Only 6.1 million couples registered marriages in 2024, down from 7.7 million the year before. More young Chinese are choosing to stay single, delay family formation, or reject it altogether. This is not unique to China; similar patterns are seen in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, but China's size and speed of change make it particularly stark. Second, having children has simply become unaffordable in China. A 2024 report by the YuWa Population Research Institute estimated that raising a child in urban China costs 538,000 yuan (£59,275) till the age of 18, more than 6.3 times the country's per capita GDP. The phrase 'tunjinshou", or 'gold-devouring beasts", is now a popular, if grim, shorthand for children in many urban households. Third, the workplace is often hostile to mothers. Many Chinese women report being pushed out of their jobs or passed over for promotions simply because they had children or took maternity leave. While women are legally entitled to 128 to 158 days of leave (depending on the province), fathers receive only a handful of days. Parental responsibility remains deeply gendered, and the state's leave policies mirror that inequality. Then there is the crushing pressure of modern parenting. High housing costs, hyper-competitive education, and a lack of affordable childcare combine to make family life feel more like a burden than a joy. These factors are especially magnified in China's largest cities, where the cost of living has exploded but real wages and job security have stagnated. What Has Been Tried And Why It Hasn't Worked For years, provincial governments have scrambled to offer incentives. In Inner Mongolia's Hohhot, families with a second or third child are eligible for up to 100,000 yuan (£10,400), paid annually until the child turns 10. The policy also includes free milk for new mothers and a 3,000 yuan dairy product voucher. In Tianmen, parents of a third child can claim a 12,500-pound discount on new homes. Hangzhou has distributed childcare vouchers. Cities like Shenyang and Changchun offer cash subsidies ranging from 1,800 to 3,600 yuan per child annually. These sound generous on paper, but uptake has been low. In most cases, the incentives are dwarfed by the actual cost of parenting. As one mother from Ningxia told Xinhua, the subsidies barely cover basics like baby formula and diapers. For middle-class and working-class families, they are not gamechangers; they are a drop in the ocean. More importantly, these schemes have failed to address structural inequities. From job insecurity and unaffordable housing to unequal leave policies and gendered expectations, the barriers are systemic. In an online poll cited by The Conversation in 2022, nearly 90 per cent of Chinese respondents said they wouldn't consider having more children even if given 12,000 yuan annually, four times what the Chinese government is now offering. Why This Subsidy Might Still Not Be Enough The latest national childcare subsidy may be modest, but it's significant. It marks the first time the Chinese government has directly deployed fiscal tools to encourage childbirth. The rollout, alongside a nationwide promise of free preschool, is designed to relieve pressure on parents in both urban and rural areas. The policy is also cleaner in design, no application hurdles, no tax implications, and broader eligibility, aiming for scale. According to the National Health Commission, nearly 20 million families could benefit. But experts remain sceptical. Yale demographer Emma Zang told Reuters that without sustained investment in affordable childcare, job protections for women, and a more equitable parental leave framework, the effect on fertility is likely to be 'minimal." South Korea offers a cautionary tale. Despite decades of generous baby bonuses, housing perks, and leave policies, its birth rate remains the lowest in the world. Fertility decline, once entrenched, is hard to reverse. Social norms don't snap back. They ossify. A Cultural Reckoning Ahead? If China hopes to slow, let alone reverse, its population drop, it will need more than cash. It will need a cultural reckoning. That means undoing decades of gender inequality in both the home and workplace. It means making parenting, for both mothers and fathers, economically viable and socially supported. And it means acknowledging that the one-child policy didn't just shrink family sizes, it rewired an entire generation's expectations about what family even means. top videos View all The urgency is real. The United Nations projects China could lose 204 million people between 2024 and 2054, and as many as 786 million by the end of the century, returning to population levels not seen since the 1950s. Whether these new policies are a turning point or a last-ditch effort remains to be seen. About the Author Karishma Jain Karishma Jain, Chief Sub Editor at writes and edits opinion pieces on a variety of subjects, including Indian politics and policy, culture and the arts, technology and social change. Follow her @ More Get Latest Updates on Movies, Breaking News On India, World, Live Cricket Scores, And Stock Market Updates. Also Download the News18 App to stay updated! tags : china birth rates China One Child Policy China population view comments Location : New Delhi, India, India First Published: August 07, 2025, 15:50 IST News explainers China's Birth Rate Is Plummeting: Can Cash Subsidies Reverse A Deepening Demographic Crisis? Disclaimer: Comments reflect users' views, not News18's. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy.
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First Post
5 days ago
- Business
- First Post
From subsidies to free pre-schools: How China is scrambling to reverse the plummeting birth rate
China's population shrank for a third consecutive year in 2024, and Beijing is now in no mood to avoid the looming crisis. From cash incentives for second and third children to housing subsidies, regions in China are already experimenting with policies to increase birth rates. But is it too late? read more China's central government introduced a childcare subsidy on July 28 that will provide families with 3,000 yuan (around £312) a year for each child under the age of three in an effort to reverse its declining birth rate. File image/ reuters China's central government introduced a childcare subsidy on July 28 that will provide families with 3,000 yuan (around £312) a year for each child under the age of three. The announcement came days after plans were unveiled to roll out free preschool education across the country. These developments mark a shift from previous years, when the government largely left the issue of addressing China's declining birth rate to local authorities. Many of those efforts, which range from cash incentives to housing subsidies, have made little difference. By stepping in directly, Beijing has signalled that it sees the situation as urgent. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Why is China's birth rate declining Fewer Chinese women are choosing to have children, and more young people are delaying or opting out of marriage. This has contributed to a situation where China's population shrank for a third consecutive year in 2024. An ageing population and shrinking workforce pose long-term challenges for China's economic growth, as well as its healthcare and pension systems. Before the central government's recent roll-out, regions in China had already been experimenting with policies to increase birth rates. These include one-time payouts for second or third children, monthly allowances and housing and job training subsidies. One of the most eye-catching local policies came from Hohhot, the capital city of Inner Mongolia province. In March 2025, the authorities there began offering families up to 100,000 yuan (£10,400) for having a second and third child, paid annually until the children turn ten. China's population shrank for a third consecutive year in 2024. File image/ Reuters The authorities in some other cities, including eastern China's Hangzhou, have offered childcare vouchers or subsidies for daycare. Policies like these have seen the number of births increase slightly in a few regions. But uptake is generally low and none have managed to change the national picture. There are several reasons why incentive-based policies have not moved the needle. First, the subsidies are generally small – often equivalent to just a few hundred US dollars. This barely makes a dent in the cost of raising a child in urban China. China ranks among the most expensive countries in the world for child-rearing, surpassing the US and Japan. In fact, a 2024 report by the Beijing-based YuWa Population Research Institute found that the average cost of raising a child in China until the age of 18 is 538,000 yuan (£59,275). This is more than 6.3 times as high as China's GDP per capita. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The burden is so widely felt that people in China jokingly refer to children as tunjinshou, which translates to 'gold-devouring beasts'. The Chinese government is struggling to control the decline in population. File image/Reuters Second, the incentives largely don't address deeper issues. These include expensive housing, intense education pressures, childcare shortages and some workplaces that penalise women for taking time off. Many Chinese women fear being pushed out of their jobs simply for having kids. Some local authorities have attempted to tackle the structural realities that make having and raising children in China difficult, and have enjoyed some success. In Tianmen, for example, parents of a third child can claim US$16,500 (£12,500) off a new home. However, these policies are confined to specific districts and villages or are limited to select groups. Support remains fragmented and insufficient, while the prospects of scaling these piecemeal initiatives nationwide are slim. Third, gender inequality in China is still deeply entrenched. Women carry most of the childcare and housework burden, with parental leave policies reflecting that imbalance. While mothers are allowed between 128 to 158 days of maternity leave, fathers receive only a handful – varying slightly by province. Despite public calls for equal parental leave, major legal changes seem far off. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD These factors have together given rise to a situation where, as in east Asia more broadly, many young people in China simply are not interested in marrying or having children. According to one online survey from 2022, around 90 per cent of respondents in China said they wouldn't consider having more children even if they were offered an annual subsidy of 12,000 yuan (£1,250) – far more than the recently announced 3,000 yuan subsidy. Is it too late for Beijing? The new measures show that Beijing is taking China's declining birth rate seriously. But it might be too late. Fertility decline is hard to reverse, with research showing that social norms are difficult to snap back once they shift away from having children. South Korea has spent decades offering its citizens generous subsidies, housing support and extended parental leave. Yet, despite a recent uptick, its birth rate has remained among the lowest in the world. Projections by the UN paint a stark picture. China's population is expected to drop by 204 million people between 2024 and 2054. It could lose 786 million people by the end of the century, returning its population to levels last seen in the 1950s. Still, the recent announcements are significant. They are the first time the central government has directly used fiscal tools to encourage births, and reflect a consensus that lowering the cost of preschool education can help boost fertility. This sets a precedent and, if urgency keeps rising, the size and scope of support may increase as well. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD However, if China hopes to turn things around, it will need more than cash. Parenting must be made truly viable and even desirable. Alongside financial aid and free preschool, families need time and labour support. This also means confronting cultural expectations. Raising a child shouldn't be seen as a woman's job alone. A real cultural shift is needed – one that treats parenting as a shared responsibility. My generation, which was born under the one-child policy, grew up in a time where siblings were heavily fined. I was one of them. But, just as fines didn't stop all of those who wanted more children, cash rewards will not easily convince the many who don't. Ming Gao, Research Fellow of East Asia Studies, Lund University This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
NDTV
5 days ago
- Business
- NDTV
From 1-Child Policy To Rs 44,000 Per Child: China's Big Shift On Population
China has announced a nationwide childcare subsidy in a renewed attempt to address declining birth rates, offering families 3,600 yuan (Rs 44,000) per child annually until the age of three. The policy, effective retroactively from January 1, is expected to benefit 20 million families in 2025, with a total allocation of 90 billion yuan (Rs 1.035 lakh crore). This is a sharp reversal of its decades-long one-child policy, which penalised families for having more than one child. Now, the government is attempting to this by offering financial support. Zane Li, 25, said he does not plan to have children. "The cost of raising a child is enormous, and 3,600 yuan a year is a mere drop in the bucket," Mr Li, who is pursuing a master's degree in health services in Beijing, told CNN. Mr Li recalled that his family was fined 100,000 yuan (Rs 12.2 lakh), nearly three times their annual income, for having a second child under the one-child policy, forcing him to take on household responsibilities as a child. Raising a child to age 18 in China costs an average of 538,000 yuan (Rs 65.7 lakh), according to the Beijing-based YuWa Population Research Institute. In cities like Shanghai and Beijing, the figure can exceed 1 million yuan. "(Having kids) would only bring more hardship. I'm not a capitalist or anything, and my kid probably wouldn't have much of a good life either," Mr Li said. Experts remain unconvinced that China's new childcare subsidy will boost birth rates. Emma Zang, demographer at Yale University, said the policy signals urgency but may not be enough. "We're not just telling you to have babies, we are finally putting some money on the table," she said, adding that similar efforts in other East Asian countries have seen limited success. Ms Zang said, "Job security, aging parents, social pressure... a cash handout doesn't address the emotional fatigue people are facing these days." Some young adults are opting out of marriage and parenthood entirely. China ended its one-child policy in 2016, later allowing up to three children per family in 2021. Despite this, the country has recorded three consecutive years of population decline, with experts warning of a deeper demographic crisis ahead.
7NEWS
5 days ago
- Business
- 7NEWS
China used to fine couples for having too many babies. Now it can't pay them enough
Zane Li was nine years old when he got a baby sister — and her arrival plunged the family in a small city in eastern China into crippling debt. Under China's stringent one-child policy at the time, Li's parents were fined 100,000 yuan (about $A21,440) for having a second child — nearly three times their annual income from selling fish at the local market. 'We were barely able to survive,' Li recalled. The then third-grader was forced to grow up overnight, taking on most of the housework and spending school holidays helping his mother at her stall. Now 25, Li says he has no plans to have children — a stance increasingly common for his generation and something that worries China's government as it tries to avert a population crisis of its own making. For decades, officials pressured couples to have fewer children, through hefty fines, forced abortions and sterilisations, only to now plead with Li's generation to make more babies. Last week, in the latest push to boost flagging birth rates, China announced it would offer parents an annual subsidy of 3600 yuan ($A772) for every child until age three, effective retroactively from January 1. But for many young adults like Li, the offer falls flat. 'The cost of raising a child is enormous, and 3600 yuan a year is a mere drop in the bucket,' said Li, who took out a student loan to study for a master's degree in health services in Beijing. Raising a child to the age of 18 costs an average of 538,000 yuan ($A115,345) in China, more than six times its GDP per capita — making it one of the most expensive places in the world to have children in relative terms, according to a recent study by the Beijing-based YuWa Population Research Institute. In Shanghai, the cost soars past 1 million yuan, with Beijing close behind at 936,000 yuan. '(Having kids) would only bring more hardship,' said Li, who's anxious about his job prospects and contemplating pursuing a PhD. 'I'm not a capitalist or anything, and my kid probably wouldn't have much of a good life either.' Such a dim outlook on future parenthood — fueled by China's slowing economy and soaring youth unemployment — presents a major hurdle to the government's push for young people to get married and have children. Faced with a shrinking workforce and a rapidly aging population, China scrapped its one-child policy in 2016, allowing couples to have two children, then three in 2021. But birth rates have continued to slide. The population has now been shrinking for three consecutive years despite a modest rebound in births last year, and experts are now warning of an even sharper decline. From fines to subsidies The newly announced national childcare subsidy marks a significant step in China's pro-birth campaign. For years, local authorities have experimented with a raft of incentives — from tax breaks, housing perks and cash handouts to extended maternity leave. Now, the central government is taking the lead with a standardised, nationwide program, allocating 90 billion yuan ($A19.2 billion) in subsidies expected to benefit 20 million families this year. 'It's no longer just a local experiment,' Emma Zang, a demographer and sociology professor at Yale University, said. 'It's a signal that the government sees the birth rate crisis as urgent and national. 'The message is clear: we're not just telling you to have babies, we are finally putting some money on the table.' The new scheme, which also offers partial subsidies for children under three born prior to 2025, has been welcomed by eligible parents, but Zang said it's unlikely to move the needle on the fertility rate. Similar policies have largely failed to boost births in other East Asian societies like Japan and South Korea, she added. For many Chinese young people grappling with unattainable housing prices, long workdays and a precarious job market, the subsidy doesn't even begin to address the deep-seated anxieties that underpin their reluctance to start a family. 'It's really not just about the cost. Many young adults are sceptical about the future, such as job security, aging parents, social pressure, so a cash handout doesn't address the emotional fatigue people are facing these days,' Zang said. The irony of the shift from fining parents for unsanctioned births to subsidising them to have more children is not lost on China's millennials and Gen Zs — especially those who have witnessed the harsh penalties of the one-child policy firsthand. On Chinese social media, some users have posted photos of old receipts showing the fines their parents once paid for giving birth to them or their siblings. Among them is Gao, who grew up in the remote mountains of Guizhou and asked to only be identified by her family name. The southwestern province is one of China's poorest and was among the many areas granted a carve-out under the one-child policy, allowing rural couples a second child if their firstborn was a girl — a concession to the country's traditional preference for sons. Like her two older sisters, Gao was sent to live with her grandmother shortly after she was born to hide from family planning officials, so that her parents could keep trying for a boy. They went on to have four daughters before finally having a son. Now living in the eastern province of Jiangsu, Gao, 27, says she has no interest in marriage or raising children. 'Knowing that I can't provide a child with a good environment for education and life, choosing not to have one is also an act of kindness,' she said. 'I definitely don't want my child to grow up like me … with no chance of upward mobility and struggling at the bottom of society, just as I have.' Fading optimism For decades, as China's economy boomed and living standards improved, generations of young people had grown up with the belief that they would live a better life than their parents. That optimism is now fading. Today, many youngsters raised on the promise of upward mobility through hard work and education are growing disillusioned: property prices have soared beyond their reach, and a university degree no longer guarantees a good job — with coveted opportunities increasingly going to those with family connections. There is a growing sense of futility that their relentless effort yields only diminishing returns in an ever more competitive society — a trend summed up by the popular buzzword 'involution', a term borrowed from sociology to describe a self-defeating spiral of excessive competition. In response, many are choosing to 'lie flat' — another catchphrase that refers to opting out of the grind of meeting society's expectations, including marriage and child-rearing. June Zhao, 29, grew up in a middle-class family in one of the most 'involuted' places in China: Beijing's Haidian district. Home to three million people and many of the nation's top universities, Haidian is equally famous for its hyper-competitive approach to raising children. Zhao started attending tutoring classes every weekend in third grade — and she was already a few years behind her peers. After finishing her bachelor and postgraduate degrees overseas, Zhao returned to Beijing to work in investor relations. She says the immense pressure she grew up with — and still feels — has played a big part in her decision not to have children. 'The cost is simply too high and the returns too low,' she said. 'In general, I have a rather pessimistic outlook on life — I've put in so much, yet received very little in return.' Zhao considers herself lucky — her job rarely demands much overtime. Even so, she struggles to imagine finding the time to raise a child. After commuting and eating dinner, she has just two or three hours of free time each day before going to bed. It would be even harder for her friends trapped in the '996' grind of working from 9am to 9pm, six days a week, she said. Like many of her contemporaries, Gao simply is not optimistic about the life she could provide for a child, or the society it would be born into. 'You only feel the urge to have children when you believe the days to come will be good,' she said. Then there's the longstanding gender imbalance in child-rearing, along with the physical and emotional toll it takes on women. In Zhao's case, it was her mother who had to juggle having a full-time job and helping her with homework, or escorting her to tutoring classes. 'I saw firsthand how hard it was for my mother to raise me,' she said. 'I know for a fact that women bear a much heavier burden and cost than men when it comes to raising a family.' As the fertility rate drops, the ruling Communist Party has emphasised women's domestic role as a 'virtuous wife and good mother' —– touting it as a cherished part of China's traditional culture and essential to the 'healthy growth of the next generation'. Officials have exhorted women to establish a 'correct outlook on marriage, childbirth and family'. Zang, the demographer, said it's simply unrealistic to expect women to have more children without addressing the real barriers they face. 'You can't turn back the clock and hope that women will just embrace more traditional roles,' she said. 'Today's young women are highly educated, career oriented, and want more equality. 'Unless policies support that reality through things like paternity leave, workplace protection and flexible jobs, fertility rates won't rebound. 'The government wants more babies, but society isn't structured to support families. 'Right now, parenting looks like a trap, especially for women. Until that changes, subsidies won't be enough.'
