Latest news with #YusofIshakInstitute
CNA
3 days ago
- General
- CNA
US should not see China defence chief's absence at Shangri-La Dialogue as a snub: ISEAS director
Mr Choi Shing Kwok, director and chief executive officer at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, explains why he does not see the absence of Chinese defence officials at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore as a missed opportunity for Beijing. He also shares why French President Emmanuel Macron's attendance at the annual defence gathering is a show of support for Asian allies.
Malaysian Reserve
19-05-2025
- Business
- Malaysian Reserve
China-US trade truce prompts nations to consider tougher tactics
CHINA'S defiant stance in negotiating a tariff truce with the US has convinced some countries they need to take a tougher position in their own trade talks with the Trump administration. The pause reached a week ago gave structure to what promise to be prolonged and difficult rounds of talks between Washington and Beijing, which still faces average US import taxes near 50% when past levies are factored into the 30% rate agreed to in Geneva, Switzerland. Yet US President Donald Trump's willingness to retreat so much from the earlier 145% duty on China surprised governments from Seoul to Brussels that have so far stuck with the US's request to negotiate rather than retaliate against its tariffs. After China's tough negotiating tactics earned it a favorable — albeit temporary — deal, nations taking a more diplomatic and expedited approach are questioning whether that's the right path. 'This shifts the negotiating dynamic,' said Stephen Olson, a former US trade negotiator who's now a visiting senior fellow with ISEAS — Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. 'Many countries will look at the outcome of the Geneva negotiations and conclude that Trump has begun to realize that he has overplayed his hand.' Left for now at 10%, the higher bespoke rates will kick in unless deals are signed or postponements are granted before a 90-day suspension ends in July. While officials are loathe to signal publicly any hardening of their approach, there are signs particularly from larger nations that they're realizing they hold more cards than previously thought and can afford to slow the pace of negotiations. South Korea's leading presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung said there's no need to rush for an early agreement in trade negotiations with the US, criticizing the interim government for what he called a hasty engagement with the Trump administration. Trump himself indicated last week — near the halfway point of the 90-day reprieve — that there isn't time to do deals with about 150 countries lining up for them. So the US may assign the higher tariff rates unilaterally in the next two to three weeks. While Trump also said that India was prepared to lower all tariffs on US goods, the nation's External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told reporters that trade talks are ongoing and 'any judgment on it would be premature.' India's Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal was scheduled to arrive in the US over the weekend for further negotiations. 'There are many countries that may learn from China that the correct way to negotiate with President Trump is to stand firm, remain calm and force him to capitulate,' said Marko Papic, chief strategist of GeoMacro at BCA Research. Japanese trade officials are scheduled to visit Washington this week. Japan's Trade Minister Yoji Muto skipped a regional meeting last week in nearby South Korea that US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer attended. Top negotiator Ryosei Akazawa, who leads Japan's tariff task force, said earlier this month that he is hoping to reach an accord with the US in June, but recent local media reports indicate an agreement is more likely be reached in July, ahead of an upper house election. Policymakers in Tokyo may be starting to think that it's preferable to take time rather than make major concessions to wrap up things up quickly. 'Everyone in the queue is wondering, 'Well, why have I been lining up?'' said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis. 'This deal let China jump the queue and also doesn't have clear benefits for the US so it's doubly painful for other countries watching.' Even US officials are signaling that negotiations will take longer. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg TV that talks with Japan and South Korea will take time. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week said the European Union suffered from a lack of unity that was impeding talks. 'I think the US and Europe may be a bit slower,' Bessent said Tuesday at a Saudi-US Investment Forum in Riyadh. On Sunday, the Treasury secretary sounded optimistic about talks more broadly, adding that 'we didn't get here overnight.' 'With a few exceptions, the countries are coming with very good proposals for us,' Bessent said in an interview on CNN's State of the Union. 'They want to lower their tariffs, they want to lower their non-tariff barriers, some of them have been manipulating their currency, they've been subsidizing industry and labor.' Officials in Brussels viewed the US-China tariff announcement as leaving high tariffs in place and limited on several fronts, according to people familiar with EU discussions. The meager negotiating gains for the US and the lack of a clear end game during the 90-day reprieve show how limited is Trump's appetite to keep ratcheting up the pressure on Beijing, the people said on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations. 'The trade landscape is becoming more fragmented' and 'the deals achieved so far are not completely addressing the situation,' the European Commission's top economic official Valdis Dombrovkis said in an interview in London on Thursday, referring to the China tariff truce and a UK-US outline of a deal announced days earlier. In Latin America, where developing economies want to preserve both Chinese investment and export access to the US market, leaders are trying to walk a careful line as the two heavyweights square off. Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who previously said negotiation came before retaliation, on Wednesday brushed off concern that forging deeper ties with China would prompt a negative US response after a state visit to Beijing that saw him sign more than 30 agreements. Colombia's President Gustavo Petro, also in Beijing last week, signed on to China's Belt and Road initiative in a bid to boost trade and investment for his country, even as his top diplomat stressed the US remains the nation's main ally. The US-China arrangement may also show nations that the Trump administration isn't immune to the pressures of domestic economic headwinds caused by tariffs. 'The economic pain is more immediate and broad-based in the US and this deal can be seen as the Trump administration acknowledging that,' said Robert Subbaraman, head of global markets research at Nomura Holdings Inc. But only nations with economic heft and limited reliance on trade with the US may be able to act on that, according to Bert Hofman, professor at the National University of Singapore and a former World Bank country director for China. 'It's pretty risky for most countries to be tough on the US,' Hofman said by phone. A prime example of that is Canada, which Oxford Economics said last week had effectively suspended almost all of its tariffs on US products. Over the weekend, Canada's Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne disputed that, saying the government kept 25% retaliatory tariffs on tens of billions of dollars in US goods. He said 70% of the counter-tariffs implemented by Canada in March are still in place, according to a social media post Saturday. The government 'temporarily and publicly paused tariffs' on some items for health and public safety reasons, he said. Still, because China's clout remains substantial as the world's factory floor, other countries may have 'to use more creative pieces of leverage,' according to Papic. For Vietnam, one-third of its economy depends on trade with the US, and that lack of leverage means there isn't scope to do much more than talk tough. Vietnam, which was among the first nations to offer purchasing additional US goods such as Boeing Co. aircraft to close the trade surplus, slammed Trump's tariffs earlier this month as 'unreasonable.' If larger nations do want to get confrontational, one area where they may have room is on services trade, said Katrina Ell, Moody's Analytics head of Asia Pacific economics. The EU, Singapore, South Korea and Japan are among nations that have the biggest services trade deficits with the US, Moody's Analytics data show. 'China has too much leverage over the US for the US to continue with its hardline stance whereas that's not the case for many other economies,' Ell said by phone. 'That's what we need to keep in mind is leverage and who has that leverage.' –BLOOMBERG
Business Times
18-05-2025
- Business
- Business Times
China-US trade truce prompts nations to consider tougher tactics
[HONG KONG] China's defiant stance in negotiating a tariff truce with the US has convinced some countries they need to take a tougher position in their own trade talks with the Trump administration. The pause reached a week ago gave structure to what promise to be prolonged and difficult rounds of talks between Washington and Beijing, which still faces average US import taxes near 50 per cent when past levies are factored into the 30 per cent rate agreed to in Geneva, Switzerland. Yet US President Donald Trump's willingness to retreat so much from the earlier 145 per cent duty on China surprised governments from Seoul to Brussels that have so far stuck with the US's request to negotiate rather than retaliate against its tariffs. After China's tough negotiating tactics earned it a favourable – albeit temporary – deal, nations taking a more diplomatic and expedited approach are questioning whether that's the right path. 'This shifts the negotiating dynamic,' said Stephen Olson, a former US trade negotiator who's now a visiting senior fellow with Iseas – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. 'Many countries will look at the outcome of the Geneva negotiations and conclude that Trump has begun to realise that he has overplayed his hand.' Left for now at 10 per cent, the higher bespoke rates will kick in unless deals are signed or postponements are granted before a 90-day suspension ends in July. BT in your inbox Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox. Sign Up Sign Up While officials are loathe to signal publicly any hardening of their approach, there are signs particularly from larger nations that they are realising they hold more cards than previously thought and can afford to slow the pace of negotiations. Trump himself indicated last week – near the halfway point of the 90-day reprieve – that there is not time to do deals with about 150 countries lining up for them. So the US may assign the higher tariff rates unilaterally in the next two to three weeks. While Trump also said that India was prepared to lower all tariffs on US goods, the nation's External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told reporters that trade talks are ongoing and 'any judgement on it would be premature'. India's Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal was scheduled to arrive in the US this weekend for further negotiations. 'There are many countries that may learn from China that the correct way to negotiate with President Trump is to stand firm, remain calm and force him to capitulate,' said Marko Papic, chief strategist of GeoMacro at BCA Research. Japan's rethink Japanese trade officials are scheduled to visit Washington this week. Japan's Trade Minister Yoji Muto skipped a regional meeting last week in nearby South Korea that US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer attended. Top negotiator Ryosei Akazawa, who leads Japan's tariff task force, said earlier this month that he is hoping to reach an accord with the US in June, but recent local media reports indicate an agreement is more likely be reached in July, ahead of an upper house election. Policymakers in Tokyo may be starting to think that it's preferable to take time rather than make major concessions to wrap things up quickly. 'Everyone in the queue is wondering, 'Well, why have I been lining up?'' said Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis. 'This deal let China jump the queue and also doesn't have clear benefits for the US so it's doubly painful for other countries watching.' Even US officials are signalling that negotiations will take longer. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg TV that talks with Japan and South Korea will take time. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week said the European Union suffered from a lack of unity that was impeding talks. 'I think the US and Europe may be a bit slower,' Bessent said on Tuesday (May 13) at a Saudi-US Investment Forum in Riyadh. On Sunday, the Treasury secretary sounded optimistic about talks more broadly, adding: 'We didn't get here overnight'. 'With a few exceptions, the countries are coming with very good proposals for us,' Bessent said in an interview on CNN's State of the Union. 'They want to lower their tariffs, they want to lower their non-tariff barriers, some of them have been manipulating their currency, they have been subsidising industry and labour.' EU scepticism Officials in Brussels viewed the US-China tariff announcement as leaving high tariffs in place and limited on several fronts, according to people familiar with EU discussions. The meagre negotiating gains for the US and the lack of a clear end game during the 90-day reprieve show how limited is Trump's appetite to keep ratcheting up the pressure on Beijing, the people said on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations. 'The trade landscape is becoming more fragmented' and 'the deals achieved so far are not completely addressing the situation,' the European Commission's top economic official Valdis Dombrovkis said in an interview in London on Thursday, referring to the China tariff truce and a UK-US outline of a deal announced days earlier. In Latin America, where developing economies want to preserve both Chinese investment and export access to the US market, leaders are trying to walk a careful line as the two heavyweights square off. Visiting Beijing Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who previously said negotiation came before retaliation, on Wednesday brushed off concern that forging deeper ties with China would prompt a negative US response after a state visit to Beijing that saw him sign more than 30 agreements. Colombia's President Gustavo Petro, also in Beijing last week, signed on to China's Belt and Road initiative in a bid to boost trade and investment for his country, even as his top diplomat stressed the US remains the nation's main ally. The US-China arrangement may also show nations that the Trump administration is not immune to the pressures of domestic economic headwinds caused by tariffs. 'The economic pain is more immediate and broad-based in the US and this deal can be seen as the Trump administration acknowledging that,' said Robert Subbaraman, head of global markets research at Nomura Holdings Inc. But only nations with economic heft and limited reliance on trade with the US may be able to act on that, according to Bert Hofman, professor at the National University of Singapore and a former World Bank country director for China. 'It's pretty risky for most countries to be tough on the US,' Hofman said by phone. A prime example of that is Canada, which Oxford Economics said last week had effectively suspended almost all of its tariffs on US products. Over the weekend, Canada's Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne disputed that, saying the government kept 25 per cent retaliatory tariffs on tens of billions of US dollars in US goods. He said 70 per cent of the counter-tariffs implemented by Canada in March are still in place, according to a social media post Saturday. The government 'temporarily and publicly paused tariffs' on some items for health and public safety reasons, he said. Still, because China's clout remains substantial as the world's factory floor, other countries may have 'to use more creative pieces of leverage,' according to Papic. Lacking leverage For Vietnam, one-third of its economy depends on trade with the US, and that lack of leverage means there is not scope to do much more than talk tough. Vietnam, which was among the first nations to offer purchasing additional US goods such as Boeing aircraft to close the trade surplus, slammed Trump's tariffs earlier this month as 'unreasonable'. If larger nations do want to get confrontational, one area where they may have room is on services trade, said Katrina Ell, Moody's Analytics head of Asia-Pacific economics. The EU, Singapore, South Korea and Japan are among the nations that have the biggest services trade deficits with the US, Moody's Analytics data show. 'China has too much leverage over the US for the US to continue with its hardline stance whereas that's not the case for many other economies,' Ell said. 'That's what we need to keep in mind is leverage and who has that leverage.' BLOOMBERG
Straits Times
18-05-2025
- Business
- Straits Times
China-US trade truce prompts other countries to consider tougher tactics
China Shipping containers are seen at the port of Oakland, California. PHOTO: REUTERS WASHINGTON – China's defiant stance in negotiating a tariff truce with the US has convinced some countries they need to take a tougher position in their own trade talks with the Trump administration. The pause reached a week ago gave structure to what promise to be prolonged and difficult rounds of talks between Washington and Beijing, which still faces average US import taxes near 50 per cent when past levies are factored into the 30 per cent rate agreed to in Geneva, Switzerland. Yet US President Donald Trump's willingness to retreat so much from the earlier 145 per cent duty on China surprised governments from Seoul to Brussels that have so far stuck with the US's request to negotiate rather than retaliate against its tariffs. After China's tough negotiating tactics earned it a favourable – albeit temporary – deal, nations taking a more diplomatic and expedited approach are questioning whether that's the right path. 'This shifts the negotiating dynamic,' said Mr Stephen Olson, a former US trade negotiator who's now a visiting senior fellow with ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore. 'Many countries will look at the outcome of the Geneva negotiations and conclude that Trump has begun to realise that he has overplayed his hand.' Left for now at 10 per cent, the higher bespoke rates will kick in unless deals are signed or postponements are granted before a 90-day suspension ends in July. While officials are loathe to signal publicly any hardening of their approach, there are signs particularly from larger nations that they're realising they hold more cards than previously thought and can afford to slow the pace of negotiations. Mr Trump himself indicated last week – near the halfway point of the 90-day reprieve – that there isn't time to do deals with about 150 countries lining up for them. So the US may assign the higher tariff rates unilaterally in the next two to three weeks. While Mr Trump also said that India was prepared to lower all tariffs on US goods, the nation's External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar told reporters that trade talks are ongoing and 'any judgment on it would be premature.' India's Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal was scheduled to arrive in the US this weekend for further negotiations. 'There are many countries that may learn from China that the correct way to negotiate with President Trump is to stand firm, remain calm and force him to capitulate,' said Mr Marko Papic, chief strategist of GeoMacro at BCA Research. Japan's rethink Japanese trade officials are scheduled to visit Washington this week. Japan's Trade Minister Yoji Muto skipped a regional meeting last week in nearby South Korea that US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer attended. Top negotiator Ryosei Akazawa, who leads Japan's tariff task force, said earlier in May that he is hoping to reach an accord with the US in June, but recent local media reports indicate an agreement is more likely be reached in July, ahead of an upper house election. Policymakers in Tokyo may be starting to think that it's preferable to take time rather than make major concessions to wrap up things up quickly. 'Everyone in the queue is wondering, 'Well, why have I been lining up?'' said Ms Alicia Garcia Herrero, chief economist for Asia Pacific at Natixis. 'This deal let China jump the queue and also doesn't have clear benefits for the US so it's doubly painful for other countries watching.' Even US officials are signaling that negotiations will take longer. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told Bloomberg TV that talks with Japan and South Korea will take time. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week said the European Union suffered from a lack of unity that was impeding talks. 'I think the US and Europe may be a bit slower,' Mr Bessent said on May 13 at a Saudi-US Investment Forum in Riyadh. On May 18, the Treasury secretary sounded optimistic about talks more broadly, adding that 'we didn't get here overnight.' 'With a few exceptions, the countries are coming with very good proposals for us,' Mr Bessent said in an interview on CNN's State of the Union. 'They want to lower their tariffs, they want to lower their non-tariff barriers, some of them have been manipulating their currency, they've been subsidising industry and labour.' EU scepticism Officials in Brussels viewed the US-China tariff announcement as leaving high tariffs in place and limited on several fronts, according to people familiar with EU discussions. The meager negotiating gains for the US and the lack of a clear end game during the 90-day reprieve show how limited is Mr Trump's appetite to keep ratcheting up the pressure on Beijing, the people said on condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations. 'The trade landscape is becoming more fragmented' and 'the deals achieved so far are not completely addressing the situation,' the European Commission's top economic official Valdis Dombrovkis said in an interview in London on May 15, referring to the China tariff truce and a UK-US outline of a deal announced days earlier. In Latin America, where developing economies want to preserve both Chinese investment and export access to the US market, leaders are trying to walk a careful line as the two heavyweights square off. Visiting Beijing Brazil President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who previously said negotiation came before retaliation, on May 14 brushed off concern that forging deeper ties with China would prompt a negative US response after a state visit to Beijing that saw him sign more than 30 agreements. Colombia's President Gustavo Petro, also in Beijing last week, signed on to China's Belt and Road initiative in a bid to boost trade and investment for his country, even as his top diplomat stressed the US remains the nation's main ally. The US-China arrangement may also show nations that the Trump administration isn't immune to the pressures of domestic economic headwinds caused by tariffs. 'The economic pain is more immediate and broad-based in the US and this deal can be seen as the Trump administration acknowledging that,' said Mr Robert Subbaraman, head of global markets research at Nomura Holdings. But only nations with economic heft and limited reliance on trade with the US may be able to act on that, according to Dr Bert Hofman, professor at the National University of Singapore and a former World Bank country director for China. 'It's pretty risky for most countries to be tough on the US,' Dr Hofman said by phone. A prime example of that is Canada, which Oxford Economics said last week had effectively suspended almost all of its tariffs on US products. Over the weekend, Canada's Finance Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne disputed that, saying the government kept 25 per cent retaliatory tariffs on tens of billions of dollars in US goods. He said 70 per cent of the counter-tariffs implemented by Canada in March are still in place, according to a social media post on May 17. The government 'temporarily and publicly paused tariffs' on some items for health and public safety reasons, he said. Still, because China's clout remains substantial as the world's factory floor, other countries may have 'to use more creative pieces of leverage,' according to Mr Papic. Lacking leverage For Vietnam, one-third of its economy depends on trade with the US, and that lack of leverage means there isn't scope to do much more than talk tough. Vietnam, which was among the first nations to offer purchasing additional US goods such as Boeing aircraft to close the trade surplus, slammed Mr Trump's tariffs earlier this month as 'unreasonable.' If larger nations do want to get confrontational, one area where they may have room is on services trade, said Ms Katrina Ell, Moody's Analytics head of Asia Pacific economics. The EU, Singapore, South Korea and Japan are among nations that have the biggest services trade deficits with the US, Moody's Analytics data show. 'China has too much leverage over the US for the US to continue with its hardline stance whereas that's not the case for many other economies,' Ms Ell said by phone. 'That's what we need to keep in mind is leverage and who has that leverage.' BLOOMBERG Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Free Malaysia Today
13-05-2025
- General
- Free Malaysia Today
More Malay parents choose Chinese schools for academic edge, survey finds
The ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute survey found that academic reputation outweighed language, proximity, and school facilities among Malay parents. (Bernama pic) PETALING JAYA : A growing number of Malay parents are enrolling their children in vernacular Chinese primary schools (SJKCs) due to the schools' strong academic reputation, according to a recent study by the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. Based on a targeted in-app survey involving 929 respondents, primarily from middle-class Malay families, the study found that 69% of respondents cited academic performance as their top reason for choosing SJKCs. James Chai. 'Parents ranked 'academic reputation' as the most important factor when choosing a school for their children, whereas the least important factor was the language of instruction,' said political analyst and visiting fellow James Chai, who authored the report. 'Location and discipline factored more importantly than school facilities,' he said. Chai added that even when SJKCs offered only basic amenities, two-thirds of parents still preferred them over national schools. 'This preference likely indicates a declining perception of academic quality in national schools among Malay parents.' The study also found that many parents would choose a national school if it had a better academic reputation than an SJKC, 'even though the latter may have better discipline, facilities, and is closer to home' . This shift in preference among Malay parents, Chai said, reflected the rising enrolment of non-Chinese students in SJKCs, which reportedly jumped from just 3%-6% in the 1990s to nearly 20% by 2020. In February, it was reported that a Chinese school in Arau, Perlis, raised eyebrows with an 'all non-Chinese' pupil enrolment for Year One this year. He said as Chinese pupil numbers continued to decline, partly due to demographic changes and the growth of private international schools, many SJKCs were adapting to remain relevant. These adjustments included offering halal food, Islamic religious classes and bilingual communication to cater to their more diverse student base, Chai said. With more Malays attending SJKCs, Chai said calls to abolish vernacular schools might lose momentum, with the strong academic reputation of SJKCs acting as a buffer against criticism. 'However, this will bring us to a larger existential question for the Chinese community. This concerns whether preserving vernacular schools at the expense of their core cultural mission represents a genuine victory or a hidden loss,' he concluded. The full ISEAS report, titled 'The Malay Turn to Vernacular Chinese Schools in Malaysia: Causes and Consequences', was published today.
