Latest news with #businessoptimism
Wall Street Journal
2 days ago
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
America's Small Businesses Hopeful of Boost From Trump's Spending Bill
Main Street businesses are feeling less worried about their prospects, a survey showed, as tariff concerns lessen and hopes rise for an economic boost from President Trump's tax-and-spending megabill. The National Federation of Independent Business said Tuesday that its optimism index, a gauge of sentiment among small firms, rose to 98.8 in May from 95.8 a month earlier, taking the index back above its long-term average, represented by a reading of 98. The increase ends a four-month streak of worsening sentiment, as an initial post-election burst of confidence began to burst amid a whipsawing trade policy and concerns over inflation and a shrinking labor force.
Bloomberg
7 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
US Business Optimism Slumps in ‘Clear Pivot' From Trump Election
US business optimism has moved sharply lower, deepening a trend seen in the first quarter and marking a sharp reversal from the buoyant mood among executives after Donald Trump's reelection as president. Less than a third, or 27%, of executives polled in May by the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants said they were confident about the economic outlook for the 12 months ahead, down from 47% of respondents in the first quarter and 67% in a survey conducted in the fourth quarter, just after the US vote.
The Guardian
04-06-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
UK service sector confidence higher in June than since before autumn budget
Bosses in the UK's services sector were more optimistic last month than they had been since before Rachel Reeves' debut budget, according to new data, as they began to see beyond the uncertainty sparked by Donald Trump's tariff war. A survey of business leaders showed many were looking forward to improved sales and investment over the next six months, despite an increase in US import tariffs to their highest level since the 1930s. The S&P Global purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose from April's 27-month low of 49.0 to 50.9, when a figure above 50 indicates a period of expansion. Services companies have been unaffected directly by tariffs imposed by the White House, which have so far been levied on goods such as steel and cars. But they have suffered from the dampened effect on global consumer and business confidence. Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global, said the services sector, which represents about three-quarters of the UK's business activity, had 'regained its poise' in May after 'improving confidence among clients and fewer reports of tariff concerns'. He added: 'Optimism reached its highest level since October 2024, which reflected forthcoming business investment plans alongside hopes of a turnaround in sales pipelines and improving domestic economic prospects.' Optimism among UK businesses fell in the wake of the chancellor's first budget in late October, which included increased taxes on UK companies. Some analysts said the survey showed the UK business sector had proved to be stronger than many forecasters predicted. Official figures showed the economy expanded by 0.7% in the first three months of the year. Rob Wood, chief UK economist at the consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics, said: 'UK growth has passed the worst as president Trump walking back his more ruinous tariffs cuts the panic that took hold in April.' He accused the Bank of England of being too pessimistic about the resilience of the UK economy after the PMI and other survey data showed 'the domestic economy is likely expanding steadily, if unspectacularly'. The index was higher than a first estimate reading last month that showed the services sector had recovered, but only to 50.2. Sign up to Business Today Get set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning after newsletter promotion Mark Swannell, chief economic adviser to the EY Item Club, said the higher services PMI and a weaker recession in manufacturing pushed the composite PMI, which brings together responses from manufacturing and services businesses, into positive territory for the first time since March. Moore said the aftermath of the tariff shock in April was still taking a toll on sales and employment in May, with firms reacting to lower orders by continuing to lay off staff. He said: 'Prevailing demand conditions remained challenging in May, as signalled by a sustained reduction in total new orders across the service economy. Survey respondents mostly cited cuts to discretionary business and consumer spending.' Moore added: 'Reduced workloads and pressure on margins from increased payroll costs meant that headcounts remained under close scrutiny. Aside from the pandemic, the current eight-month period of falling employment numbers is the longest streak since 2008-10.' Reeves will expect her pledges to increase investment in road and rail projects across the regions, which she announced on Wednesday, to further boost private sector optimism and business investment.
Bloomberg
04-06-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
UK Firms More Optimistic After Deal With US, PMI Shows
UK business optimism rebounded in May to its highest level since the aftermath of Labour's first budget after a deal to ease trade tensions between Britain and the US, according to a closely watched survey. S&P Global's gauge measuring output expectations across manufacturing and services rose to match the level in November, shortly after Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves knocked business confidence with a tax-raising budget.
BreakingNews.ie
28-05-2025
- Business
- BreakingNews.ie
Two thirds of Irish SMEs concerned about impact of new global trade war
A record high in optimism levels seen amongst Irish small and medium sized businesses (SMEs) several months ago has dropped back to more average levels as the turmoil of high US tariff announcements - and subsequent pauses - drives more uncertainty. That is according to a new business confidence survey by Linked Finance. Advertisement Business optimism amongst all SMEs was 67 per cent at the end of Q4 2024, but this has dropped back to a more average 62 per cent, for Q1 2025. While there has been no 'cliff edge' fall in business activities, they remain in slightly negative territory year-on-year. SMEs surveyed for the sentiment tracker reported a drop in business of -5 per cent at end of Q1 2025, compared to a dip of -3 per cent for the same period in 2024. Business activity and outlook There was a significant upward spike in activities by exporters last quarter, likely due to a surge in orders to fill warehouses ahead of signalled changes to trade and new tariffs - announced by US president Donald Trump on April 2nd last. The survey shows that 36 per cent of exporting SMEs saw higher business activity in the first quarter of this year, compared to 25 per cent of SMEs focused on the indigenous sector. Advertisement Concerns around a potential trade war are higher among the larger Irish SMEs surveyed, business based outside Dublin, and those in the retail/wholesale sector. One-in-four are very concerned about the issue, post the initial announcement of trade tariffs in the US. In terms of SMEs' expectations for business activity in Q2 2025, there has been a major swing in that of exporters, with 34 per cent more reporting an expected drop in business, year-on-year. This may however be related to the fact that so much export activity was frontloaded in Q1 of this year. More positively, micro-businesses (which have 1-3 employees) have posted their lowest level of concern since Covid shuttered doors in 2020, with almost seven in 10 confident of the same, or a higher level, of business activity this quarter. While employment levels remain strong, businesses based in Dublin are driving jobs growth, while those based outside the capital are in neutral territory. Advertisement Geopolitical turbulence Linked Finance chief executive Niall O'Grady said that geopolitical turbulence has caused a rapid return to long-term average levels of business confidence, with an uncertain outlook in the medium term. 'While there has been a dip in optimism, and that gap between businesses in the capital and outside the capital continues to exist, Irish SMEs have shown resilience in the past - given the many challenges to trade in recent years - including Brexit and Covid. Micro-businesses only saw a small decline in optimism, and price rises are pulling back, which is good for customers. Linked Finance chief executive Niall O'Grady. 'Given the turbulence and uncertainty experienced since the start of the year, I am not surprised by some of these results; but overall, Irish SMEs are weathering the challenges well. They are understandably concerned about the macro environment, but they are sourcing new markets - which is something many SMEs have been adept at - and may focus on more in the long term.' The quarterly Business Confidence survey is conducted by Ipsos B&A on behalf of Linked Finance, which is Ireland's leading SME peer-to-peer lender. In operation since 2013, Linked Finance recently passed the lending milestone of €350 million, and has just raised €50 million in wholesale funding that is now available to its SME borrowers. Advertisement Prices and profits Year-on-year comparisons show price rises finally declining, with more than half of SMEs maintaining their prices year-on-year. Micro-businesses reported that they are less likely to increase prices, compared to last year. Those SMEs that are currently implementing price increases are located throughout the country, whereas 12 months ago, the firms that were increasing prices were mainly Dublin-based. Profitability remains a key pressure point for SME businesses, with one-in-three reporting that operational profit is lower year-on-year, and it has yet to return to pre-Covid levels. Businesses with between 4 and 9 employees are feeling the pinch most with regard to profitability, while businesses based in Dublin are doing better, with 4-in-10 having higher profits year-on-year. Advertisement Tariffs Exporting SMEs were the most concerned about the US's effort to increase tariffs significantly, with 87 per cent either very concerned, or somewhat concerned. On average, 66 per cent of businesses are concerned about a global trade war, with 80 per cent of those with 10 or more employees reporting that they are concerned. Employment levels Medium and large SMEs (with 10-250 employees) are driving job creation, with 25 per cent of those surveyed reporting higher employee levels compared to Q1 2024. While employment levels generally remain positive overall, sectors such as retail and wholesale are down 5 per cent year-on-year in their employee numbers. Business based in Dublin are driving job growth, while those based outside the capital remain neutral in the same period. Retaining current headcount is the general status, with no upward trend of note, in all sectors combined.
