US Business Optimism Slumps in ‘Clear Pivot' From Trump Election
Less than a third, or 27%, of executives polled in May by the Association of International Certified Professional Accountants said they were confident about the economic outlook for the 12 months ahead, down from 47% of respondents in the first quarter and 67% in a survey conducted in the fourth quarter, just after the US vote.
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WIRED
a few seconds ago
- WIRED
It's the Economy, Donald
Aug 20, 2025 5:30 AM As US labor and inflation data seemingly worsen, the White House refrain is 'no panicans'—in other words, no room for panic. That isn't keeping everyone in Trumpworld from getting the jitters. Photo-illustration: WIRED staff; Getty Images For months, the mantra inside the White House has been a MAGA version of 'Keep calm and carry on.' President Donald Trump's inner circle and more junior aides have embraced the term 'No panicans'—specifically around tariffs—to signal there is no room to panic over, and certainly no room for dissent from, the president's economic policies. The administration's areas of focus—deporting immigrants whose labor powers key sectors like agriculture and construction, levying tariffs, and cutting social services among them—have done more than simply increase uncertainty. Hiring and tourism have already slowed dramatically in major US cities from Las Vegas to New York in the first half of the year, and Trump has put almost all the ingredients in place for slow growth amid high unemployment and inflation, the potent combination known as stagflation. Behind the scenes, as more tariffs begin to kick in and punted deadlines approach—particularly a tariff hike on Chinese goods, now set to jump from 30 percent to 80 percent by November 10—some Republicans in Trumpworld's orbit are bracing for impact. They're not panicking just yet, but there are growing concerns around not only rising prices but also a weakening labor market. It may not get the same traction as the price of eggs did under President Joe Biden, but it has some of my sources growing a little bit anxious about where the economy is heading. 'I'm probably surprised that there has not been more concern,' a Republican strategist and former Trump administration official tells me. 'I think the reality is that we're at that sort of inflection point, where retailers were reluctant to raise prices because they feared retaliation from the administration.' 'Now,' this source continues, 'the reality is setting in that these are not transitory. There are going to be economic consequences.' Yet inside the White House, and especially within the president's inner circle, the first wave of tariff announcements, rollbacks, rollbacks on the rollbacks, and announcements of new tariff rates has been met with the same refrain: 'No panicans.' When asked if the administration has a plan to deal with a stagflation scenario and how they're approaching the cooling labor market, the White House used that exact term. 'Inflation continuing to remain cool and growth rebounding in Q2 both suggest stagflation is simply the latest buzzword for panican paranoia,' White House deputy press secretary Harrison Fields says in a statement. Unemployment staying under 5 percent and inflation holding, per the Consumer Price Index, at under 3 percent have encouraged Trump loyalists to keep trusting the plan and claiming that the experts were wrong for doubting them. But warning signs that hiring is coming down and prices are rising are still there, economists tell me, and private trepidation from GOP sources serves as another negative indicator—even if it's a more vibes-based one. Republicans close to the president may be confident everything will be fine, but just because they keep saying 'No panicans' doesn't mean there's no reason to panic. (Trump continues to poll much worse on the economy than he did in his first term, with a Reuters/Ipsos poll from August 13 to August 18 showing his handling of it at only 37 percent approval—near the lows Biden reached on the same question.) If economic trends continue, tariffs—which amount, despite the president's insistence otherwise, to taxes on US companies and ultimately on US consumers—coupled with rising unemployment could be a ticking time bomb. 'If this experiment fails, it's gonna fail horribly, and I think we'll begin to see the impacts of that sooner than later,' says a second Trumpworld strategist. Not Rocket Science There's plenty of cope going around in the GOP and the Trump White House. 'I think we've shown that the inflation bit has been resolved,' a White House official tells me. 'When the private sector is willing to work with us, and is understanding and appreciative of our mandate to reshore manufacturing, we have shown time and time again we are willing to meet with them halfway.' Could there be more concern about the jobs numbers, particularly given a decline in the labor participation rate and revisions bringing job growth from the hundreds of thousands this spring to the tens of thousands? 'No,' a Republican member of Congress close to the president tells me in a text message when asked if they're worried about the labor market. 'Not at all. Revenue from tariffs have been good. Plus big tax cuts just passed. More to come with potential massive trade deal on 15th.' (August 15th was the day Trump met with Russian president Vladimir Putin in Alaska; no such trade deal materialized.) Economists I talked to, though, aren't buying it. 'All signs look pretty pessimistic on the inflation front,' James Angel, a finance professor at Georgetown University, tells me in an email. 'You don't have to be a rocket scientist to figure out that tariffs will increase the prices we pay for imported goods. No amount of spin will change that.' Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Michigan, says the labor market is looking grim even before the tariffs have fully kicked in. There's 'no question job growth has slowed,' he says. Wolfers adds that one of Trumpworld's biggest justifications for the tariffs not being a big deal for American consumers simply doesn't hold up. As the first Trumpworld strategist pointed out, some companies—most notably American automakers like General Motors—have shown in their earnings reports that they're willing to eat the cost of the tariffs at the expense of their own profits. 'That's what you would normally expect to happen in the short run, because businesses don't change their prices minute-by-minute every time the president opens his mouth,' Wolfers says. 'Now that the tariffs are set, and they're seeing margin compression, that's the point at which you'd expect businesses to start to think about repricing.' Wolfers says consumers should expect to feel more pain 'in the second half of this year.' Angel says that even a continuation of the status quo with perpetually delayed tariffs could still have devastating consequences. 'The economic chaos with on-again, off-again tariffs has caused business and consumer expectations to drop,' the Georgetown professor explains. 'That in itself is likely to cause a recession.' Citizen Cope Trump's vendetta against Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell doesn't calm my sources' jitters, as Trump has made clear that he would like Powell's eventual replacement to cut interest rates, even if doing so conflicts with the Fed's dual mandate of keeping prices stable and employment full. It also doesn't help, sources tell me, that Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics after the most recent job numbers showed significant revisions and a slowdown in hiring over the past several months. (EJ Antoni, Trump's pick to lead the BLS, has little relevant experience beyond being the Heritage Foundation's chief economist; as WIRED reported, a now-deleted Twitter account using his name showed a fixation on red-pilled conspiracy theories.) Another Republican operative in Trumpworld tells me, though, that a more fundamental part of the problem with calibrating around Trump's economic strategy is the old Teflon Don mentality. He always wriggles his way out of a jam, they say, and it can be hard to believe the laws of political or economic gravity apply to him. This source also fits a pattern I've come across in my years of reporting on Trumpworld: a deep distrust of institutions and experts among the staffer class that predates the Trump era. 'Personally, I've always thought the job numbers are super fugazy,' this GOP operative tells me, 'and this goes back to 2012 when I was on the Romney campaign.' For economists like Wolfers, the spin only goes so far. Trump may have found myriad ways to defy the laws of political physics over the years, but the economy doesn't work that way. 'It turns out, the connection with reality has become such a small part of our policy debates that of course they'll be able to deny [any negative impact],' Wolfers says. 'But denying that is absurd on its face … You are already seeing job growth slow. You are already seeing prices rising.' This is an edition of Jake Lahut's Inner Loop newsletter. Read previous newsletters here.
NBC News
a few seconds ago
- NBC News
India and China agree to resume direct flights as Trump shakes up ties
NEW DELHI — India and China agreed on Tuesday to resume direct flights and step up trade and investment flows as the neighbors rebuild ties damaged by a 2020 border clash. The Asian giants are cautiously strengthening ties against the backdrop of President Donald Trump's unpredictable foreign policy, staging a series of high-level bilateral visits. The two countries will resume direct flights and increase trade and investment, including reopening border trade at three designated points, and facilitate in visas, the Indian foreign ministry said. Direct flights have been suspended since the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. No date was given for their resumption. The latest statements came at the end of Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's two-day visit to New Delhi for the 24th round of talks with Indian National Security Adviser Ajit Doval to resolve their decades-old border dispute. The border talks covered issues related to pulling back troops both countries have amassed on their Himalayan border, delimitation of borders and boundary affairs, the Indian ministry said. Both countries have agreed to set up a working group to consult and coordinate on border affairs to advance demarcation negotiations, a Chinese foreign ministry statement released on Wednesday showed. It said the mechanism will extend talks to cover the eastern and middle sections of the border. Meanwhile another round of talks on the western section will be held as soon as possible, the ministry said. Beijing also said both countries agreed to meet again in China in 2026. 'Stable, predictable, constructive ties between India and China will contribute significantly to regional as well as global peace and prosperity,' Prime Minister Narendra Modi posted on X after meeting Wang. Modi is scheduled to travel to China at the end of this month to take part in the summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization — his first visit to the country in more than seven years. A readout from the Chinese foreign ministry said Wang told Doval that 'the stable and healthy development of China-India relations is in the fundamental interests of the two countries' people.' The two sides 'should enhance mutual trust through dialogues and expand cooperation,' Wang said, and should aim for consensus in areas such as border control and demarcation negotiations. India said Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar had underlined in his talks with Wang India's concerns with regard to the mega dam China is building on the Yarlung Zangbo river in Tibet. Yarlung Zangbo becomes the Brahmaputra as it flows into India and Bangladesh, a lifeline for millions. The dam would have implications for lower riparian states and the need for 'utmost transparency' was strongly underlined, New Delhi said. To that, China agreed to share with India emergency hydrological information on relevant rivers on humanitarian principles, China's foreign ministry said. Both sides agreed to engage an expert-level mechanism on cross-border rivers, and maintain communication to renew flood reporting arrangements, the ministry said. Chinese officials had previously said hydropower projects in Tibet will not have a major impact on the environment or on downstream water supplies, but India and Bangladesh have nevertheless raised concerns.
Business Insider
11 minutes ago
- Business Insider
Palantir (PLTR) Leads Selloff in Technology Stocks
The stock of Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is down 10% on Aug. 19 and leading the technology sector lower. Elevate Your Investing Strategy: Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence. In fact, PLTR stock is the worst performer in the benchmark S&P 500 index amid a broad selloff in technology names that also includes Nvidia (NVDA), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft (MSFT). The decline in Palantir's stock comes after a big rally in the share price that began when the data analytics firm reported blowout financial results in early August. PLTR stock is still up 110% on the year and one of the strongest equity performers in the U.S. However, some analysts worry that the current pullback could be the start of a rerating among richly valued technology companies whose stocks have been running hot since the recovery from the April low this year that was sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs. Downdraft Palantir's stock has now declined for five consecutive trading days, pulling its share price 12% lower over that period. There's been no obvious catalyst or reason for the current selloff. Some analysts on Wall Street are attributing it to profit taking after a big run-up in the share price. Others say that the downturn is due to a potential pullback in stocks related to the artificial intelligence (AI) trade and worries that the U.S. Federal Reserve may hold interest rates higher for longer than hoped. Regardless of the reason, the current drop in PLTR stock comes after a 440% gain over the past year. Palantir has been riding high on strong earnings, government contract wins, and excitement about AI. Is PLTR Stock a Buy? The stock of Palantir has a consensus Hold rating among 20 Wall Street analysts. That rating is based on five Buy, 13 Hold, and two Sell recommendations issued in the last three months. The average PLTR price target of $156.78 implies 0.80% downside from current levels.
