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E&E News
4 days ago
- Health
- E&E News
Report finds climate change made Nordic heat wave 2 C warmer
BRUSSELS — Human-made climate change made the July heat wave that blanketed Norway, Sweden and Finland 10 times more likely and 2 degrees Celsius hotter, according to a scientific report published Thursday. 'However, this is likely an underestimate,' said the researchers from the World Weather Attribution, a group of climate scientists that draft rapid analyses showing climate change's role in extreme weather events. The findings, which used peer-reviewed methods and models to compare the recent heat wave to the pre-Industrial Revolution world, come after the Nordic countries spent two weeks in mid-July grappling with abnormally hot temperatures for the region. Advertisement Health care and social services were strained, with some hospitals canceling surgeries and struggling to keep their buildings cool. It was also peak holiday season, leaving health care facilities operating with reduced staffing.
BBC News
25-06-2025
- Climate
- BBC News
Heatwaves in June made 10 times more likely due to climate change
It's only days since the first UK heatwave of 2025 but, hot on its heels, a second is already very likely in some places this still only in the first month of summer, and generally our hottest weather usually occurs during July and the statistics show that June heatwaves are becoming increasingly common and some love the warmth, heatwaves can have huge consequences for us as a society, from adverse health impacts, to transport disruption and increasing the threat of wildfires. Is summer's 'coolest' month heating up? June in the UK is typically the coolest of the three summer months, with average maximum temperatures of around 18C - that's around 2C below what we expect for July. Things are changing though and a recent Met Office blog post points to "a clear upward trend" in the number of June days above 30C, external. The increase varies for different parts of the UK, but according to the post "England consistently leads in the number of 30°C+ recordings, particularly in the south-east". Climate scientists at World Weather Attribution (WWA) quantify how climate change influences the intensity and likelihood of extreme weather events. They have found that the chance of seeing three consecutive June days above 28C in south-east England (the heatwave threshold for parts of the region) is now one in every five years. During pre-industrial times south-east England only experienced these temperatures once every 50 years, meaning human induced climate change has made June heatwaves here 10 times more likely. Recent years that have had significant June heatwaves include 2017 and 2020, and 2023 holds the title for the hottest June on record. Whilst heatwaves in June are becoming more frequent, they are still not as intense as those in later in the summer, such as the record-breaking extreme heat of July 2022, when the UK recorded temperatures above 40C for the first time. What about the historic heatwave of June 1976? When intense heatwaves occur in the UK many people make comparisons with the extraordinary summer of 1976. In June that year a very long-lasting heatwave developed and it still holds the record for the hottest June day ever recorded - a scorching 35.6C in Southampton. However, when analysing historic weather data it is clear that 1976 was a significant outlier in an otherwise cooler decade. During the entire decade of the 1970s for example, Heathrow recorded just 14 June days above 28C. Compare that with the current period, and since 2020 there have already been 26 days above 28C - and we're only halfway through this decade. As our climate continues to warm what was once a rare meteorological event is now becoming a more regular feature of our early summers. How do heatwaves affect me? A dose of warm, sunny weather can really lift our mood but we can also reach a point of feeling too hot and uncomfortable and heatwaves can have serious health consequences. How well our bodies deal with heat depends on several weather factors such as humidity, wind and cloud cover. It also varies hugely between individuals, with the elderly, the very young, those who are pregnant or people with underlying health conditions, particularly Office for National Statistics estimates that during 2022 there were more than 4500 excess deaths due to heat-related illnesses in not just our health that is at risk, but also our natural environments, infrastructure and transport networks. Network Rail estimates that in 2024 delays caused by rails that buckled due to extreme heat totalled 240 2021 the Met Office has introduced warnings for extreme heat, external which can be issued to alert the general public when temperatures are forecast to rise high enough and for long enough to cause significant disruption to our lives. Lower level 'Heat Heat Alerts, external' are also issued by the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) that are aimed at emergency responders and professionals with the health and social care sectors. How will temperatures change this week? The rest of this week will have a quite a fluctuating temperature pattern. After a cooler start, the heat will build again temporarily on Wednesday especially in the south and east. However, it's from Saturday onwards that we could see several parts of central and eastern England returning to heatwave conditions for three or more consecutive up to date with the temperatures where you are on the BBC Weather website and app.
BBC News
19-06-2025
- Science
- BBC News
Three years left to limit warming to 1.5C, leading scientists warn
EPA The Earth could be doomed to breach the symbolic 1.5C warming limit in as little as three years at current levels of carbon dioxide emissions. That's the stark warning from more than 60 of the world's leading climate scientists in the most up-to-date assessment of the state of global warming. Nearly 200 countries agreed to try to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C above levels of the late 1800s in a landmark agreement in 2015, with the aim of avoiding some of the worst impacts of climate change. But countries have continued to burn record amounts of coal, oil and gas and chop down carbon-rich forests - leaving that international goal in peril. Climate change has already worsened many weather extremes - such as the UK's 40C heat in July 2022 - and has rapidly raised global sea levels, threatening coastal communities. "Things are all moving in the wrong direction," said lead author Prof Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds. "We're seeing some unprecedented changes and we're also seeing the heating of the Earth and sea-level rise accelerating as well." These changes "have been predicted for some time and we can directly place them back to the very high level of emissions", he added. At the beginning of 2020, scientists estimated that humanity could only emit 500 billion more tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) - the most important planet-warming gas - for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5C. But by the start of 2025 this so-called "carbon budget" had shrunk to 130 billion tonnes, according to the new study. That reduction is largely due to continued record emissions of CO2 and other planet-warming greenhouse gases like methane, but also improvements in the scientific estimates. If global CO2 emissions stay at their current highs of about 40 billion tonnes a year, 130 billion tonnes gives the world roughly three years until that carbon budget is exhausted. This could commit the world to breaching the target set by the Paris agreement, the researchers say, though the planet would probably not pass 1.5C of human-caused warming until a few years later. Last year was the first on record when global average air temperatures were more than 1.5C above those of the late 1800s. A single 12-month period isn't considered a breach of the Paris agreement, however, with the record heat of 2024 given an extra boost by natural weather patterns. But human-caused warming was by far the main reason for last year's high temperatures, reaching 1.36C above pre-industrial levels, the researchers estimate. This current rate of warming is about 0.27C per decade – much faster than anything in the geological record. And if emissions stay high, the planet is on track to reach 1.5C of warming on that metric around the year 2030. After this point, long-term warming could, in theory, be brought back down by sucking large quantities of CO2 back out of the atmosphere. But the authors urge caution on relying on these ambitious technologies serving as a get-out-of-jail card. "For larger exceedance [of 1.5C], it becomes less likely that removals [of CO2] will perfectly reverse the warming caused by today's emissions," warned Joeri Rogelj, professor of climate science and policy at Imperial College London. 'Every fraction of warming' matters The study is filled with striking statistics highlighting the magnitude of the climate change that has already happened. Perhaps the most notable is the rate at which extra heat is accumulating in the Earth's climate system, known as "Earth's energy imbalance" in scientific jargon. Over the past decade or so, this rate of heating has been more than double that of the 1970s and 1980s and an estimated 25% higher than the late 2000s and 2010s. "That's a really large number, a very worrying number" over such a short period, said Dr Matthew Palmer of the UK Met Office, and associate professor at the University of Bristol. The recent uptick is fundamentally due to greenhouse gas emissions, but a reduction in the cooling effect from small particles called aerosols has also played a role. This extra energy has to go somewhere. Some goes into warming the land, raising air temperatures, and melting the world's ice. But about 90% of the excess heat is taken up by the oceans. That not only means disruption to marine life but also higher sea levels: warmer ocean waters take up more space, in addition to the extra water that melting glaciers are adding to our seas. The rate of global sea-level rise has doubled since the 1990s, raising the risks of flooding for millions of people living in coastal areas worldwide. PA Media While this all paints a bleak picture, the authors note that the rate of emissions increases appears to be slowing as clean technologies are rolled out. They argue that "rapid and stringent" emissions cuts are more important than ever. The Paris target is based on very strong scientific evidence that the impacts of climate change would be far greater at 2C of warming than at 1.5C. That has often been oversimplified as meaning below 1.5C of warming is "safe" and above 1.5C "dangerous". In reality, every extra bit of warming increases the severity of many weather extremes, ice melt and sea-level rise. "Reductions in emissions over the next decade can critically change the rate of warming," said Prof Rogelj. "Every fraction of warming that we can avoid will result in less harm and less suffering of particularly poor and vulnerable populations and less challenges for our societies to live the lives that we desire," he added. Sign up for our Future Earth newsletter to keep up with the latest climate and environment stories with the BBC's Justin Rowlatt. Outside the UK? Sign up to our international newsletter here.
Yahoo
19-06-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Three years left to limit warming to 1.5C, leading scientists warn
The Earth could be doomed to breach the symbolic 1.5C warming limit in as little as three years at current levels of carbon dioxide emissions. That's the stark warning from more than 60 of the world's leading climate scientists in the most up-to-date assessment of the state of global warming. Nearly 200 countries agreed to try to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C above levels of the late 1800s in a landmark agreement in 2015, with the aim of avoiding some of the worst impacts of climate change. But countries have continued to burn record amounts of coal, oil and gas and chop down carbon-rich forests - leaving that international goal in peril. "Things are all moving in the wrong direction," said lead author Prof Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds. "We're seeing some unprecedented changes and we're also seeing the heating of the Earth and sea-level rise accelerating as well." These changes "have been predicted for some time and we can directly place them back to the very high level of emissions", he added. At the beginning of 2020, scientists estimated that humanity could only emit 500 billion more tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) - the most important planet-warming gas - for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5C. But by the start of 2025 this so-called "carbon budget" had shrunk to 130 billion tonnes, according to the new study. That reduction is largely due to continued record emissions of CO2 and other planet-warming greenhouse gases like methane, but also improvements in the scientific estimates. If global CO2 emissions stay at their current highs of about 40 billion tonnes a year, 130 billion tonnes gives the world roughly three years until that carbon budget is exhausted. This could commit the world to breaching the target set by the Paris agreement, the researchers say, though the planet would probably not pass 1.5C of human-caused warming until a few years later. Last year was the first on record when global average air temperatures were more than 1.5C above those of the late 1800s. A single 12-month period isn't considered a breach of the Paris agreement, however, with the record heat of 2024 given an extra boost by natural weather patterns. But human-caused warming was by far the main reason for last year's high temperatures, reaching 1.36C above pre-industrial levels, the researchers estimate. This current rate of warming is about 0.27C per decade – much faster than anything in the geological record. And if emissions stay high, the planet is on track to reach 1.5C of warming on that metric around the year 2030. After this point, long-term warming could, in theory, be brought back down by sucking large quantities of CO2 back out of the atmosphere. But the authors urge caution on relying on these ambitious technologies serving as a get-out-of-jail card. "For larger exceedance [of 1.5C], it becomes less likely that removals [of CO2] will perfectly reverse the warming caused by today's emissions," warned Joeri Rogelj, professor of climate science and policy at Imperial College London. The study is filled with striking statistics highlighting the magnitude of the climate change that has already happened. Perhaps the most notable is the rate at which extra heat is accumulating in the Earth's climate system, known as "Earth's energy imbalance" in scientific jargon. Over the past decade or so, this rate of heating has been more than double that of the 1970s and 1980s and an estimated 25% higher than the late 2000s and 2010s. "That's a really large number, a very worrying number" over such a short period, said Dr Matthew Palmer of the UK Met Office, and associate professor at the University of Bristol. The recent uptick is fundamentally due to greenhouse gas emissions, but a reduction in the cooling effect from small particles called aerosols has also played a role. This extra energy has to go somewhere. Some goes into warming the land, raising air temperatures, and melting the world's ice. But about 90% of the excess heat is taken up by the oceans. That not only means disruption to marine life but also higher sea levels: warmer ocean waters take up more space, in addition to the extra water that melting glaciers are adding to our seas. The rate of global sea-level rise has doubled since the 1990s, raising the risks of flooding for millions of people living in coastal areas worldwide. While this all paints a bleak picture, the authors note that the rate of emissions increases appears to be slowing as clean technologies are rolled out. They argue that "rapid and stringent" emissions cuts are more important than ever. The Paris target is based on very strong scientific evidence that the impacts of climate change would be far greater at 2C of warming than at 1.5C. That has often been oversimplified as meaning below 1.5C of warming is "safe" and above 1.5C "dangerous". In reality, every extra bit of warming increases the severity of many weather extremes, ice melt and sea-level rise. "Reductions in emissions over the next decade can critically change the rate of warming," said Prof Rogelj. "Every fraction of warming that we can avoid will result in less harm and less suffering of particularly poor and vulnerable populations and less challenges for our societies to live the lives that we desire," he added. A simple guide to climate change What is the Paris climate agreement? 2024 first year to pass 1.5C global warming limit Coastlines in danger even if climate target met, scientists warn Sign up for our Future Earth newsletter to keep up with the latest climate and environment stories with the BBC's Justin Rowlatt. Outside the UK? Sign up to our international newsletter here.
BBC News
19-06-2025
- Science
- BBC News
Three years left to limit warming to 1.5C, top scientists warn
The Earth could be doomed to breach the symbolic 1.5C warming limit in as little as three years at current levels of carbon dioxide the stark warning from more than 60 of the world's leading climate scientists in the most up-to-date assessment of the state of global 200 countries agreed to try to limit global temperature rises to 1.5C above levels of the late 1800s in a landmark agreement in 2015, with the aim of avoiding some of the worst impacts of climate countries have continued to burn record amounts of coal, oil and gas and chop down carbon-rich forests - leaving that international goal in peril. "Things are all moving in the wrong direction," said lead author Prof Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures at the University of Leeds."We're seeing some unprecedented changes and we're also seeing the heating of the Earth and sea-level rise accelerating as well."These changes "have been predicted for some time and we can directly place them back to the very high level of emissions", he the beginning of 2020, scientists estimated that humanity could only emit 500 billion more tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) - the most important planet-warming gas - for a 50% chance of keeping warming to by the start of 2025 this so-called "carbon budget" had shrunk to 130 billion tonnes, according to the new reduction is largely due to continued record emissions of CO2 and other planet-warming greenhouse gases like methane, but also improvements in the scientific global CO2 emissions stay at their current highs of about 40 billion tonnes a year, 130 billion tonnes gives the world roughly three years until that carbon budget is could commit the world to breaching the target set by the Paris agreement, the researchers say, though the planet would probably not pass 1.5C of human-caused warming until a few years later. Last year was the first on record when global average air temperatures were more than 1.5C above those of the late 1800s.A single 12-month period isn't considered a breach of the Paris agreement, however, with the record heat of 2024 given an extra boost by natural weather human-caused warming was by far the main reason for last year's high temperatures, reaching 1.36C above pre-industrial levels, the researchers current rate of warming is about 0.27C per decade – much faster than anything in the geological if emissions stay high, the planet is on track to reach 1.5C of warming on that metric around the year this point, long-term warming could, in theory, be brought back down by sucking large quantities of CO2 back out of the the authors urge caution on relying on these ambitious technologies serving as a get-out-of-jail card."For larger exceedance [of 1.5C], it becomes less likely that removals [of CO2] will perfectly reverse the warming caused by today's emissions," warned Joeri Rogelj, professor of climate science and policy at Imperial College London. 'Every fraction of warming' matters The study is filled with striking statistics highlighting the magnitude of the climate change that has already the most notable is the rate at which extra heat is accumulating in the Earth's climate system, known as "Earth's energy imbalance" in scientific the past decade or so, this rate of heating has been more than double that of the 1970s and 1980s and an estimated 25% higher than the late 2000s and 2010s."That's a really large number, a very worrying number" over such a short period, said Dr Matthew Palmer of the UK Met Office, and associate professor at the University of recent uptick is fundamentally due to greenhouse gas emissions, but a reduction in the cooling effect from small particles called aerosols has also played a extra energy has to go somewhere. Some goes into warming the land, raising air temperatures, and melting the world's about 90% of the excess heat is taken up by the oceans. That not only means disruption to marine life but also higher sea levels: warmer ocean waters take up more space, in addition to the extra water that melting glaciers are adding to our rate of global sea-level rise has doubled since the 1990s, raising the risks of flooding for millions of people living in coastal areas worldwide. While this all paints a bleak picture, the authors note that the rate of emissions increases appears to be slowing as clean technologies are rolled argue that "rapid and stringent" emissions cuts are more important than Paris target is based on very strong scientific evidence that the impacts of climate change would be far greater at 2C of warming than at has often been oversimplified as meaning below 1.5C of warming is "safe" and above 1.5C "dangerous".In reality, every extra bit of warming increases the severity of many weather extremes, ice melt and sea-level rise."Reductions in emissions over the next decade can critically change the rate of warming," said Prof Rogelj."Every fraction of warming that we can avoid will result in less harm and less suffering of particularly poor and vulnerable populations and less challenges for our societies to live the lives that we desire," he added. Sign up for our Future Earth newsletter to keep up with the latest climate and environment stories with the BBC's Justin Rowlatt. Outside the UK? Sign up to our international newsletter here.
