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The Herald Scotland
7 days ago
- Business
- The Herald Scotland
Trump Turnberry must host the Open – and Swinney must drive it
Hope that you'll benefit from cheap energy when the government drills, baby, drills rather than building wind turbines. Hope that when your daughter tries out for the track team she won't have to compete against someone who was born a boy. But first and foremost hope that the factory down the road will reopen and that you will get a job there rather than the job going to the foreigner who arrived yesterday. This is America First, the midwife of global economic uncertainty, including in Scotland, a nation with major export interests in the US and therefore with much to lose from a punitive tariff regime. Read more by Andy Maciver America First is also the midwife of global security uncertainty. President Trump's desire to retrench from global military engagement is, in essence, leaving various geopolitical fields of play to bad actors. President Putin wants to recover Russia's historical position as the biggest global player in eastern Europe and western Asia, and America's on-off willingness to let that happen is destabilising Nato, Europe and particularly those western countries which border Russia, in ways the President struggles to understand. Hardly for the first time, though, it is Gaza which is at the centre of most people's moral consciousness, and which is central to the protests against President Trump's Scottish trip, and his meeting with First Minister John Swinney. This conflict is tens, or hundreds, or by some interpretations thousands of years old, and therefore expecting a President with little foreign policy experience or interest to solve it is fanciful. However, it is his unwillingness, or at least inability, to persuade Mr Netanyahu of both the moral indecency and the strategic hopelessness of the scale of his retaliation in Gaza which is of most concern. This is not where we would wish to be. However it is where we are. Being the leader of a country is, and must be, different from being the leader of a party. It is impure. It requires compromise and diplomacy. And it requires you to do business with people you don't agree with. If we draw a line in the sand here, because of President Trump's adjacency to Prime Minister Netanyahu, what are the implications? What if the populist formula which elected Trump generates leaders we don't like in France or Germany, as it has already done in Italy. Should Mr Swinney also refuse to meet them because they are adjacent to President Trump? What if Nigel Farage is Prime Minister of the UK in 2029. Should Mr Swinney refuse to meet him? And if adjacency is the problem, the list of offenders is endless. Churchill and Stalin. Blair and Gaddafi. Xi Jinping and pretty much every global leader. No, this is the wrong place to draw the line. John Swinney is right to meet the President during this visit. More than that; to reject the opportunity would have been a dereliction of his duty as Scotland's leader. He should be welcoming the half-Scottish Donald John Trump with open arms, ready to deal. I use the word "deal" deliberately. President Trump likes to see himself as a man with considerable dealmaking prowess, but engagements with Presidents Putin and Netanyahu, amongst others, tell us that his dealmaking abilities appear to be considerably less proficient than he would wish us to believe. Why shouldn't we expect that Mr Swinney can outmanoeuvre President Trump over the next few days and put Scotland in a stronger position? Of course it is true that Mr Swinney will, to some degree, be deferential. Of course it is true that he will have to pander to the President. Of course it may even be true that he will have to tarnish himself, just a little bit, in order to get the most out of the interaction. But this – all of this – is a price worth paying if he can help put President Trump in a position where he is more sympathetic to giving Scotland and the UK a better deal, primarily on tariffs. Scotland is home to the UK's largest food and drink exports – Scottish salmon and Scotch whisky – both of which are heavily invested in the US import market. This matters hugely to Scotland's economy and to the jobs which depend on these industries. Moreover, salmon and Scotch are part of a Scottish soft power which is highly influential in the US. A soft power which includes the stereotypical tartan and bagpipes, and which crucially also includes golf. Mr Swinney needs to exploit President Trump's weak point. The locations of his visit offer the clue about what that is – golf. And so there is one deal, perhaps above all others, which Mr Swinney, in alliance with Sir Keir Starmer and by leaning heavily on the R&A, should seek to do, and that is to offer Trump Turnberry golf's Open Championship. Stewart Cink on his way to victory the last time the Open was played at Turnberry, in 2009 (Image: PA) Having just left Royal Portrush, The Open goes to Royal Birkdale next year before returning to St Andrew's in 2027. There is no announced venue for 2028, the last Open of the Trump Presidency. It should go to Turnberry. This would be a win-win. The suitability of the majestic Ailsa course at Turnberry is not in question, including by the R&A. Turnberry's problem, in this era of larger crowds, is poor transport infrastructure and insufficient accommodation options. Mr Swinney should be looking at this as an opportunity to work with the UK Government, and international investors, to leverage investment in road and rail connections, which would benefit Scotland well beyond the staging of the golf tournament. Leaning on the R&A to award Turnberry the Open in 2028 would be a tiny price to pay for a better deal on a range of other issues. It is a deal Mr Swinney should actively try to make. Welcome to Scotland, Mr President. Come back in 2028 for your Open. Andy Maciver is Founding Director of Message Matters, and co-host of the Holyrood Sources podcast
The National
05-05-2025
- Business
- The National
The issue facing SNP and Labour when dealing with Donald Trump
Speaking to The National ahead of a series examining Trump's impact on Scotland, Professor Frank Cogliano said that the US president's golf courses – in Ayrshire and Aberdeenshire – presented both an opportunity and a challenge to UK politicians. "It's an unprecedented situation because Donald Trump is confusing his personal business interests and his political interests,' Cogliano said. 'In the past, poor Jimmy Carter put his peanut farm in a blind trust so there would be no appearance of impropriety. Donald Trump doesn't operate like that.' Referencing reports that the UK Government had lobbied for The Open, golf's oldest major tournament, to be held at the Trump Turnberry course, Cogliano went on: 'One can imagine the UK Government wanting to use whatever soft power it has to try and influence Trump. READ MORE: Donald Trump bid to have Open at Turnberry 'could breach US constitution' 'On the other hand, this is a blurring of a business interest in politics, which is not what we do here in the UK as a rule. Historically we haven't really done it in the United States since the 19th century, which was quite corrupt, but Trump, Trump is old fashioned in this regard.' The University of Edinburgh professor added: 'The UK Government is kind of stuck in a bind – and I imagine that governments around the world where Trump has business interests are facing this – because on one hand this gives them leverage. On the other hand, it's complicated. 'Let's suppose John Swinney took a principled stand and said, 'The Open should not be a Turnberry because this is corruption'. 'Well then you don't want him slapping a 100% tariff on whisky, which is the kind of thing he might do.' US president Donald Trump is half-Scottish on his mother's sideMuch has been made of the US president's close familial ties to Scotland – his mother was born and raised in Lewis before emigrating – but Cogliano cautioned against thinking this would bind Trump in any way. 'His relationship with Scotland is very strange and interesting because he makes relatively little of it considering his mother is from Scotland,' he said. '[Trump's] got a direct link, but he doesn't make that much of that except I suppose when trying to promote his business interests here. 'I remember before his inauguration talking to some people in the government and some people in business, and the business folks were fairly optimistic, saying, 'well, he's Scottish, he likes us, we don't have to worry that much about tariffs'. I thought, 'Oh, I don't know about that'. READ MORE: Petition to stop Donald Trump addressing UK Parliament hits milestone 'He's a very transactional guy, he's a very vindictive guy. His history is littered with people who he allegedly liked who he betrayed. 'He'll run roughshod over everybody – and I don't think the Scottish connection will necessarily protect Scotland.' Attempts to appease Trump present a second challenge for UK politicians, who must court him without angering their own voters – with whom he is overwhelmingly unpopular. YouGov polling has found just 16% of UK adults have a positive view of the US president. '[It's] like juggling,' Cogliano said, 'trying to keep Trump happy with trying to keep the vast, vast majority of your own voters that don't like him happy.' In February, Prime Minister Keir Starmer delivered a letter from the King inviting Trump for a second state visit – a move widely seen as an attempt to appease the US president. Prime Minister Keir Starmer presents Donald Trump with a letter from the King (Image: PA) YouGov polling showed the public was almost evenly split on whether the visit should go ahead (43% in favour, 42% opposed). However, Labour voters opposed it by 49% to 37%, while Tory and Reform voters – the latter overwhelmingly supportive of Trump (72% to 19%) – tipped the balance. Trump's polling troubles are much worse in the US, Cogliano said. 'He's got the worst 100-day polling results since they started polling. This is unprecedented,' the University of Edinburgh expert said. 'Obama's approval rating was around 63% at this point back in 2009, for example. Biden was in positive territory at this point back four years ago. 'The only person who's in the same neighbourhood is Trump during his first administration. This is historically bad.' Cogliano added: 'So he's unpopular, a lot of his policies are unpopular, a lot of the things he's doing are unpopular, but he's also unconstrained. It's very strange.' READ MORE: Major blow to Labour as Donald Trump 'downgrades UK trade deal talks' Could today's situation mirror Trump's experience in Scotland 15 years ago, when the SNP government allowed him to develop golf courses in Aberdeenshire despite opposition from locals and environmental groups? In both Scotland and the US, Trump made grand promises – of a £1 billion investment and 6000 jobs in Aberdeenshire, or a 'golden age' for American citizens – that have failed to materialise. Cogliano said the US president's actions in Scotland and the Oval Office were a 'good comparison'. 'There don't seem to be consequences for him not living up to his promises,' he added. 'The question here is when or if he will face any.'
