Latest news with #harvest
Yahoo
a day ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Weather Shocks vs. Oversupply: Are You Trading SRW Wheat's Next Big Move?
The 2025/26 marketing year, June 01 to May 31, for Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat shows a mixed supply and demand picture, with harvest occurring from late May to August, primarily in the U.S. South, Great Lakes, and Atlantic regions. The USDA's Economic Research Service projects that U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2025/26 will be the highest since 2019/20, up 10% from 2024/25, driven by larger beginning stocks. U.S. wheat exports are projected to be down by 20 million bushels, constrained by larger projected exports from competitors like the EU, Argentina, and Russia. Demand remains steady but faces headwinds from global competition, as SRW is the world's cheapest wheat, with funds holding net short positions since 2022. This competitive pricing stems from robust U.S. production and improved moisture conditions as crops enter the heading phase, which could keep prices subdued. Speculators should note the potential for volatility tied to inter-market spreads with other grains, while hedgers must monitor export demand and global stock levels to manage risk effectively. The latest crop progress report indicates that the U.S. winter wheat harvest is 63% complete, slightly behind the 5-year average. Spring wheat is 78% headed, exceeding the average by 3%. The good to excellent condition rating for spring wheat increased by 4% to 54%, with notable improvements in Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota. This abundance, especially in SRW, could flood the market and cause depressed prices. More News from Barchart Warren Buffett Warns Inflation Turns Business Into 'The Upside-Down World of Alice in Wonderland' But Weeds Out 'Bad Businesses' Why GOOGL Stock May Be the Market's Next Big Winner Alphabet Posts Lower Free Cash Flow and FCF Margins - Is GOOGL Stock Overvalued? Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! A positive event supporting higher prices is continuing weather disruptions in regions like Southern Russia, Ukraine, or Northern Europe, where dryness and frost risks persist. Such events could tighten global supply, boosting SRW demand as a cost-competitive alternative. The wheat market outlook remains cautious for the upcoming season, with prices likely to stay range-bound to lower unless significant weather shocks disrupt supply. Speculators might find opportunities in short-term weather-driven rallies. At the same time, hedgers may consider locking in prices during potential spikes, given the bearish bias from ample U.S. stocks and global competition. Technical Picture Source: Barchart Since the recent peak in February 2025, the 50 simple moving average (SMA) has contained the short-lived price rallies. Price action appears to be trading sideways, but the SMA is still sloping down. The market will be keeping an eye on the 543'6 low from May. The Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Source: CME Group Exchange The managed money traders' COT report shows aggressive selling(red lines) and remaining net short (yellow line) since July 2022. They hold 31% of open short positions, a slight increase from three months ago. Source: Barchart The continuous weekly nearest contract wheat chart shows the price action since managed money traders went net short in 2022 and have remained with that sentiment. The wheat market has been holding support at the 506'0 to 514'0 level. However, the rallies from these levels appear weaker with each attempt failing to get any traction or sentiment change from the trend-following managed money traders. Seasonal Pattern Source: Moore Research Center, Inc. (MRCI) MRCI seasonal research often finds patterns tied to the expiration or delivery of a futures contract. The upcoming seasonal window (yellow box) correlates to the September wheat contract's First Notice Day (FND), as prices historically have declined into this period. The reasons may be the convergence of the futures to spot prices at expiration, storage, and carry cost, as the premium may erode as expiration approaches, or just the new supply coming to the latest market year that started in June. With the technical picture showing weak levels off of the May lows and the bearish sentiment remaining in the managed money traders' camp, the upcoming seasonal sell may be the catalyst to lower prices. Source: MRCI MRCI research has found that over the past 15 years, the December wheat contract has closed lower on approximately September 01 than on August 05 for 13 years, with an 87% occurrence rate. In addition, three of the years never had a daily closing drawdown. Based on hypothetical testing, the average net profit has been 24 cents or $1,204 per standard-sized 5,000 bushel wheat contract. As a crucial reminder, while seasonal patterns can provide valuable insights, they should not be the basis for trading decisions. Traders must consider various technical and fundamental indicators, risk management strategies, and market conditions to make informed and balanced trading decisions. Assets to Trade the Wheat Market Wheat futures are traded on the CME Group Exchange: The standard-size contract (ZW) and the mini-size contract (XW). Options on the wheat futures at the CME Group Exchange are also available. Equity traders may find that the exchange-traded fund (ETF) (WEAT) offers opportunities in their equity accounts without opening futures trading accounts. In Closing….. The 2025/26 marketing year for Chicago Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat, spanning June 01 to May 31, presents a complex supply and demand landscape for speculators and hedgers. Harvested from late May to August across the U.S. South, Great Lakes, and Atlantic regions, SRW faces bearish pressures from a projected 10% increase in U.S. wheat ending stocks, the highest since 2019/20, driven by robust production and larger beginning stocks, according to the USDA. Global competition from the EU, Argentina, and Russia caps U.S. exports, down 20 million bushels. At the same time, SRW's position as the world's cheapest wheat fuels record net short positions by managed money traders since 2022. Improved crop conditions, with 54% of spring wheat rated good-to-excellent and the U.S. winter wheat harvest 63% complete, signal an ample supply that could depress prices further. However, weather disruptions in Southern Russia, Ukraine, or Northern Europe could tighten global supply, potentially lifting SRW demand and prices. The market's technical picture underscores bearish sentiment, with prices trading sideways below a declining 50 SMA and weak rallies off the 506'0–514'0 support. Seasonal patterns add another layer, with Moore Research Center (MRCI) data indicating an 87% chance of December wheat futures closing lower by September 01 compared to August 05, possibly driven by annual futures-to-spot convergence, storage costs, and new supply. The Commitment of Traders report confirms managed money traders' aggressive selling, holding 31% of open short positions, reinforcing a bearish outlook. Speculators can target short-term weather-driven rallies, while hedgers should lock prices during potential spikes to manage downside risk. The challenge is clear: Will you act on the bearish seasonal window and technical weakness, or wait for a weather shock to shift sentiment? Use assets like CME wheat futures (ZW, XW), options, or the WEAT ETF to position strategically, but don't rely solely on seasonal patterns—integrate technicals, fundamentals, and risk management to navigate this volatile market. On the date of publication, Don Dawson did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Sign in to access your portfolio
CBC
2 days ago
- Climate
- CBC
P.E.I. growers hoping for steady dose of rain at halfway point of season
Island farmers are grateful for the rain that fell so far this month, but most say it isn't enough. The owner of a local fruit orchard would like to see 'an inch a week' of rain between now and harvesting time. CBC's Nancy Russell explains.
ABC News
3 days ago
- Health
- ABC News
Burns survivor wants to use second chance to teach others about fire safety
It was less than week to Christmas and only two days away from finishing his barley crop harvest when farmer Tim Haslam came face-to-face with a bushfire in 2023. Unable to escape the flames, he incurred burns to 38 per cent of his body. Two years on from the incident, Mr Haslam realises he made critical mistakes and wants to ensure others do not follow in his footsteps. Mr Haslam said on the day of the fire the conditions were not particularly bad, with winds around 12 kilometres per hour. But he said everything changed in an instant. "It was harvest and we were at the closing stages of our 10,000 acre cropping program, we probably had two days to go," he said. "I was harvesting and had just finished a run line. I looked in the rear-view vision mirror and saw flames, so it was then that I went and got a fire unit. "All I could see out of my windscreen was orange flames. "I immediately turned the ute left and I then got bogged. I also realised I had a flat tyre." Mr Haslam said it was then that he made the first of several mistakes. "I got out of the ute and I just ran, probably four or five steps. I tripped and landed hands-first into the [burning] barley stubble," he said. After being found by an employee, he was flown to Fiona Stanley Hospital in Perth, where he spent 10 days in the Intensive Care Unit. For seven of those days, he was in a coma. When Mr Haslam woke, he was told he had suffered 38 per cent burns to his face, arms, legs, hands and feet. "I was extraordinarily lucky to be in Fiona Stanley, it is by far the best burns unit in the world," he said. "[Plastic surgeon and burns specialist] Fiona Wood has done an enormous amount of research since and prior to the Bali bombings. "They developed spray-on skin, and on top of that, I'm also wearing compression garments that I have to wear for 24 months." Mr Haslam said the support from his wife Sally and the wider farming community during his treatment and rehabilitation had been unwavering. "Undoubtedly, I was given a second chance. I've had 15 surgeries, I've lost all the ends of my fingers, the corners of my mouth have also webbed together," he said. When asked how day-to-day operations had changed for him on his farm in Popanyinning, Mr Haslam said they had changed enormously and also very little. "I do all my farm jobs. I do them fairly slowly and it is quite painful, but is that age, arthritis or burns-related?" he said. The farmer echoed this year's Farm Safety Week message of second chances and using them as powerful learning opportunities. "Now while I am harvesting, I will always look at the wind direction and where it is coming from. "On December 20, 2023, I had a pair of shorts and a short-sleeve shirt on. "I urge people for the period of harvest just wear long pants and a long-sleeve shirt. "I just simply reacted. What I should have done is sat there for a second and just assessed, 'What are my options?'" Mr Haslam admitted that stepping out of his vehicle during the fire was a mistake others should learn from. "My employee who picked me up could have quite easily run me over, but fortunately the smoke had cleared by then," he said. The family was just two days off finishing their harvest when Mr Haslam was injured. Already a busy time of year for other farmers trying to finish their own harvest, one of his neighbours organised a working bee to get the rest of the crop off. "There were four or five headers, trucks. They all turned up to finish off the harvest, and drink my grog," Mr Haslam said. "My local bowling club also turned up. They were all such incredible support. I refer to them as my bowling family. "I had the photos of the harvest hanging in my hospital room. It was a way of keeping me connected to home."
The Guardian
4 days ago
- Business
- The Guardian
‘Excellent size': UK blueberry crop up nearly a quarter after warm spring
British blueberries are the latest fruit to benefit from the warmest spring on record, with the harvest up by almost a quarter so far this year. Growers say the weather has produced an early crop with more and larger berries, while new varieties can bring higher yields and better resilience. About 5,133 tonnes are expected by the end of August, up significantly from almost 4,187 tonnes by the same point last year. Sales of the spherical fruit are already 9% ahead year on year as growing awareness of the health properties and a healthy crop bolster demand. Daniel Martin, the group commercial director at S&A Produce, says: 'This blueberry season has seen a really positive early start, about two weeks ahead of schedule, thanks to strong light levels and an absence of rain. 'As a result, we're seeing excellent fruit size and nice, even ripening across the crop. In summary, we are optimistic about the season and expect to see excellent flavour and shelf life from this year's crop.' The harvest is also being aided by new technology as growers invest in automated picking and other methods to reduce labour costs and improve efficiency. Jim Floor, the managing director of Hall Hunter, one of the UK's leading blueberry growers, said the company now used machines to harvest 10% of its crop, and this was expected to rise to 30% next year – with the rest picked by hand. Blueberries are leading the technology push, with the more delicate strawberries, raspberries and blackberries now all picked by hand at Hall Hunter. 'When it comes to robotic fruit picking, we're seeing steady and encouraging progress from robotics and automation companies. However, the technology isn't quite ready for widespread commercial adoption just yet,' Floor said. The blockbuster blueberry summer comes hot on the heels of a perfect spring for strawberries. The sunny, very dry spring, with the warmest start to May on record, led to a glut of early strawberries, aubergines and tomatoes at the start of May. Sign up to Business Today Get set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning after newsletter promotion Growers said they were producing 'giant' 50g strawberries you 'cannot fit in your mouth'. However, the average was a more modest 30g. Nick Marston, the chair of the industry body British Berry Growers, said that all UK berry crops, including strawberries, raspberries and blackberries, were up by about 25% so far thanks to 'cracking weather' in June that had helped ripen crops that had developed well during the cooler start to the spring. 'The weather has been very beneficial for all berry crops,' he said. However, Marston said it was not clear if the overall berry harvest for the year would be up by that amount as some fruit would have just have been harvested earlier than usual and picking might tail off depending on conditions.
The Guardian
4 days ago
- Business
- The Guardian
‘Excellent size': UK blueberry crop up nearly a quarter after warm spring
British blueberries are the latest fruit to benefit from the warmest spring on record, with the harvest up by almost a quarter so far this year. Growers say the weather has produced an early crop with more and larger berries, while new varieties can bring higher yields and better resilience. About 5,133 tonnes are expected by the end of August, up significantly from almost 4,187 tonnes by the same point last year. Sales of the spherical fruit are already 9% ahead year on year as growing awareness of the health properties and a healthy crop bolster demand. Daniel Martin, the group commercial director at S&A Produce, says: 'This blueberry season has seen a really positive early start, about two weeks ahead of schedule, thanks to strong light levels and an absence of rain. 'As a result, we're seeing excellent fruit size and nice, even ripening across the crop. In summary, we are optimistic about the season and expect to see excellent flavour and shelf life from this year's crop.' The harvest is also being aided by new technology as growers invest in automated picking and other methods to reduce labour costs and improve efficiency. Jim Floor, the managing director of Hall Hunter, one of the UK's leading blueberry growers, said the company now used machines to harvest 10% of its crop, and this was expected to rise to 30% next year – with the rest picked by hand. Blueberries are leading the technology push, with the more delicate strawberries, raspberries and blackberries now all picked by hand at Hall Hunter. 'When it comes to robotic fruit picking, we're seeing steady and encouraging progress from robotics and automation companies. However, the technology isn't quite ready for widespread commercial adoption just yet,' Floor said. The blockbuster blueberry summer comes hot on the heels of a perfect spring for strawberries. The sunny, very dry spring, with the warmest start to May on record, led to a glut of early strawberries, aubergines and tomatoes at the start of May. Sign up to Business Today Get set for the working day – we'll point you to all the business news and analysis you need every morning after newsletter promotion Growers said they were producing 'giant' 50g strawberries you 'cannot fit in your mouth'. However, the average was a more modest 30g. Nick Marston, the chair of the industry body British Berry Growers, said that all UK berry crops, including strawberries, raspberries and blackberries, were up by about 25% so far thanks to 'cracking weather' in June that had helped ripen crops that had developed well during the cooler start to the spring. 'The weather has been very beneficial for all berry crops,' he said. However, Marston said it was not clear if the overall berry harvest for the year would be up by that amount as some fruit would have just have been harvested earlier than usual and picking might tail off depending on conditions.
