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Ukraine airstrikes, grey seals and flowing lava: photos of the day
Ukraine airstrikes, grey seals and flowing lava: photos of the day

The Guardian

time6 hours ago

  • Climate
  • The Guardian

Ukraine airstrikes, grey seals and flowing lava: photos of the day

The harvest season ends in the circular wheat fields of Altınova and Gözlü in the Kadınhanı district Photograph: Anadolu/Getty Images Keir Starmer and the Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, speak during a press conference at Chequers, near Aylesbury, after signing a free trade agreement, which has been in negotiation for three years. The deal – the most significant trade pact made by the UK since Brexit – will still need to be approved by the British parliament and India's federal cabinet Photograph: WPA/Getty Images A French republican security corps officer tackles an individual attempting to cycle across the finish line minutes before the final sprint of the 112th edition of the Tour de France cycling race Photograph: AFP/Getty Images People watch a grey seal colony on the beach in Norfolk Photograph: Matthew Chattle/Shutterstock A bus drives through a solar farm. The farm produces enough electricity to supply 80,000 households Photograph: Shutterstock Residents leave the site of a Russian airstrike Photograph: Sofiia Gatilova/Reuters A helicopter drops water over a burned forest during a massive wildfire on the southern side of the Troodos mountain range Photograph: Petros Karadjias/AP Juan Manuel Gil of Colombia competes during the men's 27m high diving events at the World Aquatics Championships Photograph: Rungroj Yongrit/EPA Palestinians gather to receive food from a charity kitchen as starvation grips Gaza Photograph: Dawoud Abu Alkas/Reuters Mourners react as they attend the funeral of Palestinians killed in overnight Israeli airstrikes Photograph: Dawoud Abu Alkas/Reuters Residents wade through a flooded street after heavy rains in Pangasinan province. The Philippines shut down schools and cancelled flights on Thursday as torrential rains, driven by a typhoon and a separate tropical storm, pounded the country's northern island of Luzon Photograph: AFP/Getty Images A demonstrator holds up a sign with a message that reads: 'Pensioners resisting,' in front of a police cordon during a weekly protest demanding better pensions for retirees Photograph: Víctor R Caivano/AP Team Lidl-Trek ride during the 18th stage of the Tour de France over 171.5km (106.6 miles), starting in Vif Photograph: Thibault Camus/AP People stroll on the coast at sunset in the suburbs of Thessaloniki. High temperatures are forecast across Greece, with the highest temperatures expected on Thursday and Friday Photograph: Achilleas Chiras/EPA Cambodian soldiers reload the BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher. Thailand launched airstrikes on Cambodian military targets on Thursday as Cambodia fired rockets and artillery, killing a civilian, in a dramatic escalation of a long-running border row between the two neighbours Photograph: AFP/Getty Images Lava flow is seen at the base of a crater, which is still very active after a volcanic eruption on the Reykjanes peninsula Photograph: Marco di Marco/AP Festivalgoers attend the Lost Frequencies performance at the 48th edition of Paleo festival, an open-air music festival in the western part of Switzerland with about 250,000 spectators attending across six days Photograph: Cyril Zingaro/EPA The Newar community burns an effigy of the demon Ghanta Karna on the day of the Gathemangal festival Photograph: Ambir Tolang/NurPhoto/Shutterstock

Arabica Coffee Advances as Weather Risks Add to Supply Concerns
Arabica Coffee Advances as Weather Risks Add to Supply Concerns

Bloomberg

time7 hours ago

  • Business
  • Bloomberg

Arabica Coffee Advances as Weather Risks Add to Supply Concerns

Arabica coffee rose for a third day on mounting worries over supplies from top-grower Brazil, as traders monitor crop yields amid the risk of wet weather slowing the harvest. The most-active contract rose as much as 1.7% to $3.065 a pound, on its longest winning streak in more than two months. Futures have jumped this week on concerns over a cold front hitting coffee-growing regions, alongside continuing uncertainties over the threat of a 50% US tariff on Brazilian goods.

Crush the 2025 Soybean Market! Brazil's Surge & Seasonal Downtrend Are Open Doors—Dive Into COT Data Today
Crush the 2025 Soybean Market! Brazil's Surge & Seasonal Downtrend Are Open Doors—Dive Into COT Data Today

Yahoo

time2 days ago

  • Business
  • Yahoo

Crush the 2025 Soybean Market! Brazil's Surge & Seasonal Downtrend Are Open Doors—Dive Into COT Data Today

The 2025 soybean crop in South America, which accounts for about 55% of global supply, is on track for a record harvest despite weather challenges. Brazil, the world's top soybean producer, expects a production of 169 million metric tons for the 2024/25 season per the USDA, a significant jump from last year, driven by a 3 % increase in planted area to around approximately117 million acres. Argentina, the third-largest producer, the USDA projects 49 million tons, subject to ongoing adjustments due to the varying impacts of weather conditions across the country. There was indeed an expansion in planted area for the 2024-25 soybean crop, reaching 44.2 million acres, the most significant increase since the 2015-16 season. According to trading data, these robust South American outputs exert downward pressure on global soybean prices, which dropped to $ 10.20'4 per bushel as of July 21. Over the past month, soybeans have been down about 3.5%, while year-to-date, they're about unchanged. U.S. soybean exports are facing challenges, particularly with China, their largest buyer, which accounts for about 60% of U.S. soybean exports. For the 2024/25 marketing year, U.S. exports are forecast at 1.75 billion bushels, down 70 million bushels from earlier estimates due to increased competition from Brazil's record crop and a favorable Brazilian real exchange rate. A December 2024 report by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) mentions that the market expectation is for the Brazilian real to continue trading at around R$5.5 to USD 1 in 2025, and that this exchange rate is highly favorable for Brazilian soybean exports. The 2023/24 season saw U.S. exports at 1.789 billion bushels, a 14% decline from the previous year, while Brazil's exports surged 40% to China. The possibility of a slowdown in China's demand and its impact on U.S. acreage is a relevant concern. China's decreased soybean demand in 2025 is noted, driven by sufficient domestic reserves and ample supplies from Brazil. More News from Barchart This Penny Stock Wants to Become the MicroStrategy of Dogecoin Opendoor Stock Is Surging Higher in a Frenzied Retail Rally. How Should You Play OPEN Shares Here? Robinhood Stock Stumbles as S&P 500 Inclusion Is Once Again Off the Table for HOOD Stop Missing Market Moves: Get the FREE Barchart Brief – your midday dose of stock movers, trending sectors, and actionable trade ideas, delivered right to your inbox. Sign Up Now! Technical Source: Barchart November soybeans have been range-bound since the beginning of the year. After probing the channel high of $10.75, the market has retreated, creating a price action downtrend of lower highs and lows. The recent attempt at a price rally failed near the July 07 gap down, indicating the remaining supply is near the origin of the gap. Will this downtrend be the catalyst for breaking out of the year-long channel? The Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Source: CME Group Exchange The managed money traders' COT report has some fascinating insight. While the graph looks noisy and unclear, the internal numbers may tell what the managed money traders think. In the last three months, managed money has quietly been building a short position. Looking at the Percent of Open Interest column, we can see their short positions now make up 12.5% of the open interest, up from 7.7%, marking an increase of about 5%. At the same time, their long positions dropped from 10.2% to 9.7%. This increase in selling (red lines) began when prices (yellow line) were near the top of the $10.75 channel high. Another fact is that the Number of Traders column reflects that 58 managed money traders were short three months ago. Today, that number has increased to 73. While the number of long-positioned managed money traders was 76, today, it has dropped to 62. Slowly and diligently, managed money appears to be scaling into a much bigger soybean short position. Seasonal Pattern Source: Moore Research Center, Inc. (MRCI) MRCI's extensive research details the price action and 15-year seasonal pattern (blue line) and the upcoming seasonal window (yellow box). In the previous paragraph, I commented on how the soybean market had traded in a channel since the beginning of the year. Seasonally, MRCI reveals that channel price action has been the norm over the past 15 years rather than the exception. The upcoming seasonal window has historically been when the November soybean contract has accelerated its downside move. Revisiting the COT report details, can you see why the managed money traders may be building their short positions? With the supporting fundamentals of soybean supply, price action following its seasonal pattern this year, and the daily trend turning down, we may soon see more downside price action. The seasonal window dates reflect that November soybean futures have closed lower on August 12 than on July 21 for 13 of the past 15 years in hypothetical trading. For four years, there was never a daily closing drawdown. Source: MRCI During this hypothetical testing and research period, the average profit for this trade was about 31 cents, or $1,550 per standard contract. The Worst Equity Date column alerts us that the market typically rallies for a couple of days after entering the market and then declines. As a crucial reminder, while seasonal patterns can provide valuable insights, they should not be the basis for trading decisions. Traders must consider various technical and fundamental indicators, risk management strategies, and market conditions to make informed and balanced trading decisions. Assets to Trade Soybeans Soybean Futures Contracts - Standard (ZS) Mini (XK): Soybean futures, traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) through CME Group, are standardized contracts that allow buyers and sellers to agree on a price for soybeans to be delivered on a future date (e.g., November 2025 futures). Soybean Options Contracts: Options on soybean futures, also traded on CBOT, give speculators the right, but not the obligation, to buy (call) or sell (put) soybeans at a specific price before or at expiration. These are useful for seasonal trading, allowing speculators to capitalize on price volatility (e.g., weather-driven spikes in June) with defined risk. Agricultural ETFs (SOYB): Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) provide exposure to soybeans without direct futures trading. Making it accessible for speculators targeting seasonal price movements in soybeans. In closing….. The 2025 soybean market is at a crossroads, with South America's record harvests and shifting trade dynamics with China creating challenges and opportunities. Prices are under pressure, and the seasonal window suggests potential for further declines, as managed money traders quietly build short positions. But here's the deal: markets reward those who do their homework. Dive into the data—study the COT reports, track price action, and weigh the fundamentals like Brazil's exchange rate and China's demand. You've got the tools to navigate this. Whether you're eyeing futures, options, or ETFs, trust your ability to analyze and act. The market's moving—will you move with it? On the date of publication, Don Dawson did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. 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