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The Print
02-07-2025
- Business
- The Print
Rupee rises 17 paise to close at 85.59 against US dollar
Forex traders said the US dollar is trading at lowest levels since February 2022 as President Donald Trump's growing influence on Federal Reserve policy revived fears over the central bank's independence. Mumbai, Jul 1 (PTI) Rupee appreciated 17 paise to close at 85.59 against the US dollar on Tuesday, supported by weakness of the American currency in the overseas market and a positive tone in the domestic equities amid rise in risk appetite. At the interbank foreign exchange, the domestic unit opened at 85.66 against the greenback. During the day, it witnessed an intraday high of 85.34. The domestic unit settled for the day at 85.59, registering a rise of 17 paise over its previous close. On Monday, the rupee settled 26 paise down at 85.76 against the dollar. 'We expect the rupee to gain on the decline in US dollar and rise in risk appetite in global markets. Gold is trading at lowest levels since February 2022 and 10-year US bond yields briefly slipped below 4.2 per cent,' Anuj Choudhary – Research Analyst at Mirae Asset Sharekhan said. 'However, recovery in crude oil prices may cap sharp gains. Traders may take cues from ISM manufacturing PMI, and JOLTS job data from the US and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech,' Choudhary said, adding that 'USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of 85.20 to 85.85.' Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.46 per cent to 96.43. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, went down 0.24 per cent to USD 66.58 per barrel in futures trade. In the domestic equity market, Sensex advanced 90.83 points or 0.11 per cent to 83,697.29, while Nifty rose 24.75 points or 0.10 per cent to 25,541.80. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth Rs 1,970.14 crore on a net basis on Tuesday, according to exchange data. On the domestic macroeconomic front, India's manufacturing sector growth rose to a 14-month high of 58.4 in June marked by improved trends in output and new orders, alongside a record upturn in employment, a monthly survey showed on Tuesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index – an indicator of sector performance – was 57.6 in May. Meanwhile, the government's gross GST collections increased by 6.2 per cent to over Rs 1.84 lakh crore in June but slipped below the Rs 2 lakh crore mark recorded in the previous two months. Gross GST (Goods and Services Tax) collections stood at Rs 1,73,813 crore a year ago, as per government data released on Tuesday. Another set of data released on Monday showed India's industrial production growth, however, slowed to a nine-month low of 1.2 per cent in May 2025 due to poor performance of manufacturing, mining and power sectors caused by the early onset of monsoon. The government's fiscal deficit fell to 0.8 per cent of the full-year target at the end of May, mainly due to a whopping Rs 2.69 lakh crore dividend received from the Reserve Bank of India. PTI DRR HVA This report is auto-generated from PTI news service. ThePrint holds no responsibility for its content.
Yahoo
30-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
China Growth Is on a 'Moderating Trend,' JPMorgan's Ng Says
China's factory activity in June improved but still remained in contraction. JPMorgan's Grace Ng says the manufacturing PMI data "is pretty much in line" with what the firm was looking for. She says China "will have growth moderating into the second quarter" given the US tariff policy and other external uncertainties.
Bloomberg
30-06-2025
- Business
- Bloomberg
China Growth Is on a 'Moderating Trend,' JPMorgan's Ng Says
China's factory activity in June improved but still remained in contraction. JPMorgan's Grace Ng says the manufacturing PMI data "is pretty much in line" with what the firm was looking for. She says China "will have growth moderating into the second quarter" given the US tariff policy and other external uncertainties. (Source: Bloomberg)
BusinessToday
07-06-2025
- Business
- BusinessToday
What's The Next Catalyst For Markets?
Global equities, as measured by the MSCI All Country World Index, reached a new record high this week, fully recovering losses incurred since President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs in early April. While trade tensions briefly resurfaced, concerns of an all-out trade war have abated following a crucial phone call between President Trump and China's President Xi, according to an editorial by Standard Chartered Bank. The market's attention is now turning to upcoming 'hard' economic data for May, specifically US non-farm payrolls and inflation figures. A softer US employment report combined with stable inflation could reignite expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, potentially propelling US equities to further record highs. Trade Dynamics and the 'Trump Put' This week saw President Trump double US tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50%, with the UK being the sole exemption after signing a preliminary trade pact. Despite facing court challenges and criticism for a perceived softening on trade, Trump may seek alternative legal avenues to impose targeted tariffs to encourage trade partners back to the negotiating table. However, Standard Chartered does not anticipate a full-blown trade war, especially after the Trump-Xi call aimed at resetting trade discussions. The bank noted that the 'Trump put' — the President's tendency to scale back aggressive trade stances when markets react negatively — remains in effect, citing his reversal of tariffs in April after a significant market downturn. Mixed US Economic Signals While trade tensions simmer, 'soft' US business confidence indicators, such as the ISM manufacturing PMI, remained in contractionary territory for May. The ISM service sector PMI, particularly its new orders component, turned contractionary for the first time in nearly a year, even as 'prices paid' continued to rise. In contrast, 'hard' real activity indicators have shown resilience, likely supporting household consumption. Timely job market data, like initial jobless claims, averaged around 235,000 in May, well below the 350,000 level that typically signals recessionary conditions. Fed Watch: Payrolls and Inflation Key The upcoming US employment and inflation reports for May are critical market drivers. Consensus estimates predict a slowdown in net job creation to 126,000 in May. A significant miss in the payrolls data, coupled with relatively stable core inflation (consensus at 2.9% year-on-year, 0.3% month-on-month), could increase the likelihood of the Fed resuming rate cuts from July, potentially pushing US equities to new peaks. Conversely, any tariff-driven surge in inflation would delay rate cuts, leading to a short-term consolidation in equity markets, though a significant pullback is not expected due to current bearish investor positioning in US equities. US Fiscal Policy and Global Currency Outlook The bank also highlights President Trump's proposed 'Big, beautiful bill' as a potential disruptor for bond markets if passed in its current form, given soaring deficit projections. However, Standard Chartered anticipates some tax incentive cutbacks, noting that elements like tax deductions on R&D, capex, and interest expenses could positively impact US earnings growth. In currency markets, Standard Chartered has turned bearish on EUR/JPY. Continued disinflation in the Euro area, exacerbated by US tariffs, raises the prospect of further ECB rate cuts in the second half of the year, following this week's 25 basis point reduction to 2.0%. Euro area core inflation recently hit a three-year low of 2.3%. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is expected to appreciate amid global growth uncertainty, with the Bank of Japan likely to hike rates further as inflation consistently exceeds its 2% target. Related
Hindustan Times
03-06-2025
- Business
- Hindustan Times
China's factory activity cools in May as US tariffs hit
* Caixin manufacturing PMI at 48.3 in May vs 50.4 in April * New export orders fall at fastest pace since July 2023 * Output contracts for the first time since October 2023 BEIJING, - China's factory activity in May shrank for the first time in eight months, a private-sector survey showed on Tuesday, indicating U.S. tariffs are now starting to directly hurt the manufacturing superpower. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI fell to 48.3 in May from 50.4 in April, missing analysts' expectations in a Reuters poll and marking the first contraction since September last year. It was also the lowest reading in 32 months. The 50-mark separates growth from contraction. The result is broadly in line with China's official PMI released on Saturday that showed factory activity fell for a second month. A federal appeals court temporarily reinstated the most sweeping U.S. tariffs, a day after a trade court ruled that President Donald Trump had exceeded his authority in imposing the duties and ordered an immediate block on them. Two weeks after breakthrough negotiations that resulted in a temporary truce in the trade war between the world's two biggest economies, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday the talks are "a bit stalled". China's Premier Li Qiang last week said the country is mulling new policy tools, including some "unconventional measures", which will be launched as the situation evolves. According to the Caixin survey, new export orders shrank for the second straight month in May and at the fastest pace since July 2023. Producers said the U.S. tariffs restrained global demand. That dragged down overall new orders to the lowest since September 2022. Factory output meanwhile contracted for the first time since October 2023. Employment in the manufacturing sector declined at the sharpest pace since the start of this year, as producers cut headcount. Output prices have fallen for six straight months due to intense market competition. In the auto industry, for example, an intensifying price war in China has stoked fears of a long-anticipated shake-out in the world's largest car market. Robin Xing, Chief China Economist at Morgan Stanley, said this underscores how supply-demand imbalances continue to fuel deflation. "There is growing rhetoric about the need for rebalancing, but recent developments suggest the old supply-driven model remains intact. Thus, reflation is likely to remain elusive." Surprisingly, export charges rose for the first time in nine months, marking the fastest growth since July 2024, as companies cited rising logistics costs and tariffs. Overall, business optimism improved in terms of future output, as they expect the trade environment to improve with market expansion.
