Latest news with #oiloutput
Khaleej Times
12 hours ago
- Business
- Khaleej Times
OPEC, IEA crude oil demand forecasts may be too cautious
A key difference in crude oil demand forecasts between this year and 2024 is that both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) are being far more cautious in their growth expectations. While the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the wider OPEC+ group publicly maintain that strong demand and a tight market justify increasing oil output, the numbers in their monthly report are more circumspect. It is largely the same for the IEA, which forecast in its July monthly report that global crude demand will grow by 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, the slowest pace since 2009. OPEC's July report is slightly more bullish, forecasting oil demand will increase by 1.29 million bpd in 2025, with 1.16 million bpd coming from countries outside the developed economies of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The forecasts from both the IEA and OPEC are now so cautious that they actually run the risk of being too pessimistic, especially in the top-importing region of Asia. This is in stark contrast to last year, when OPEC in particular was massively bullish in its demand forecasts even as Asia's crude oil imports were declining. There is, of course, a difference between demand forecasts and imports, but the level of seaborne imports is the key driver of crude prices, given it is this market, which accounts for about 40% of global daily oil demand, that sets the global prices. In its July 2024 monthly report OPEC forecast that Asia's non-OECD oil demand would rise by 1.34 million bpd in 2024, with China accounting for 760,000 bpd of this. However, Asia's crude imports actually declined in 2024, dropping by 370,000 bpd to 26.51 million bpd, according to data compiled by LSEG Oil Research. It was the first decline in Asia's oil imports since 2021, at a time when demand was hit by the lockdowns prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The gap between OPEC's bullish forecasts for much of 2024 and the reality of weak crude imports by Asia may have tempered the exporter group's forecasts for 2025. The question is whether they are now actually being too cautious. Asia recovery OPEC's July monthly report forecast that non-OECD Asia's oil demand will rise by 610,000 bpd in 2025, with China the main contributor at 210,000 and India, Asia's second-biggest crude importer, seeing an increase of 160,000 bpd. The IEA said in its July report that it expects China's total oil product demand to rise by 81,000 bpd in 2025, while India is expected to see a gain of 92,000 bpd. Total non-OECD Asia is forecast to see demand rise by 352,000 bpd. Both the OPEC and the IEA numbers seem modest, especially since Asia's crude imports actually saw relatively strong growth in the first half of 2025. Asia's imports in the first six months of the year were 27.25 million bpd, an increase of 510,000 bpd from the same period last year, according to calculations based on LSEG data. Imports increased in the second quarter, especially in China, as refiners took advantage of the weakening trend in oil prices that prevailed at the time cargoes were being arranged. It is likely that some of the increase in oil imports was used to build inventories, a process that may extend into the second half if oil prices remain soft as OPEC+ increases output amid the economic uncertainty created by U.S. President Donald Trump's ongoing global trade war. If there is one lesson to be learnt from the difference between this year's circumspect oil demand forecasts and last year's buoyant estimates, it is that price plays a far bigger role in demand, especially in Asia. Part of the reason Asia's crude imports fell short of forecasts in 2024 was because prices remained elevated for much of the year, reaching above $92 a barrel in April and only briefly dropping below $70 in September. This year, prices have been softer, with benchmark Brent futures peaking at just over $82 a barrel in January, and trading as low as $58.50 in May.
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Portugal's Galp core profit beats expectations with a 1% contraction
LISBON (Reuters) -Portugal's Galp Energia on Monday said its adjusted second-quarter core profit beat expectations with a scant 1% contraction as higher oil output and more profitable gas trading nearly offset falling crude prices and narrower refining margin. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) dropped to 840 million euros ($977.76 million), surpassing the 724 million euro consensus provided by the company. Galp, whose main business is extracting crude from rich fields offshore Brazil, said its share of oil and gas production from its projects in the second quarter increased by 6% to 113,000 barrels per day. It said Brent oil prices fell 20% to an average of $67.9 a barrel in the second quarter, down from $85 a year ago, while its refining margin stood at $6.1, much lower than $7.7 in the same quarter of 2024. Galp's second-quarter adjusted net profit rose 25% to 373 million euros, also beating the 220 million euros forecast by analysts, as the company benefited from lower taxes. ($1 = 0.8591 euros) Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Reuters
2 days ago
- Business
- Reuters
Portugal's Galp core profit beats expectations with a 1% contraction
LISBON, July 21 (Reuters) - Portugal's Galp Energia ( opens new tab on Monday said its adjusted second-quarter core profit beat expectations with a scant 1% contraction as higher oil output and more profitable gas trading nearly offset falling crude prices and narrower refining margin. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) dropped to 840 million euros ($977.76 million), surpassing the 724 million euro consensus provided by the company. Galp, whose main business is extracting crude from rich fields offshore Brazil, said its share of oil and gas production from its projects in the second quarter increased by 6% to 113,000 barrels per day. It said Brent oil prices fell 20% to an average of $67.9 a barrel in the second quarter, down from $85 a year ago, while its refining margin stood at $6.1, much lower than $7.7 in the same quarter of 2024. Galp's second-quarter adjusted net profit rose 25% to 373 million euros, also beating the 220 million euros forecast by analysts, as the company benefited from lower taxes. ($1 = 0.8591 euros)
Asharq Al-Awsat
6 days ago
- Business
- Asharq Al-Awsat
Drone Attack Targets Tawke Oilfield in Iraq's Kurdistan
A drone attack targeted an oilfield operated by Norwegian oil and gas firm DNO in Tawke, in the Zakho Administration area of northern Iraq, on Thursday, the Kurdistan region's counter-terrorism service said. The attack is the second on the DNO-operated field since a wave of drone attacks began early this week. DNO, which operates the Tawke and Peshkabour oilfields in the Zakho area that borders Türkiye, temporarily suspended production at the fields following explosions that caused no injuries, the counter-terrorism service said. DNO did not immediately reply to a request for comment. This week's drone attacks have reduced oil output from oilfields in Iraq's semi-autonomous Kurdistan region by between 140,000 to 150,000 barrels per day, two energy officials said on Wednesday, as infrastructure damage forced multiple shutdowns.
Zawya
15-07-2025
- Business
- Zawya
Kazakhstan hikes oil output by 11.6% in first half, no plans to quit OPEC+
ASTANA - Kazakhstan's oil output in the first half of 2025 rose by around 11.6% to 49.9 million metric tons from the same period in 2024, while the country has no plans to leave the OPEC+ group of global leading oil producers, senior officials said on Tuesday. The Central Asian republic has persistently exceeded quotas set by OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers led by Russia, angering some bloc's members, according to the industry sources. Energy minister Erlan Akkenzhenov said on Tuesday that Kazakhstan exported 39.6 million tons of oil (1.64 million barrels per day), while this year's export is expected at 70.5 million tons. Reuters uses the ratio of barrels of Kazakhstan's crude oil to metric tons of 7.5 barrels per metric ton. Separately, the country's Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov said Kazakhstan did not plan to leave OPEC+, while conceding it has struggled to abide by the OPEC+ production quotas. He said it was due to the expansion of the Chevron-led Tengiz oilfield, the country's largest. Kazakhstan's OPEC+ quota is set to rise to 1.532 million barrels per day in August from 1.514 million barrels per day in July. This does not account for output of gas condensate, a type of light oil. (Reporting by Tamara Vaal in Astana and Mariya Gordeyeva in Almaty; Writing by Lidia Kelly in Warsaw and Vladimir Soldatkin in Moscow; Editing by Christian Schmollinger and Louise Heavens)
