Latest news with #tropicalcyclones
CBC
22-05-2025
- Climate
- CBC
More hurricanes expected this year, but that doesn't mean more will hit Atlantic Canada
The U.S.-based National Hurricane Center released its outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season Thursday, predicting there is a 60 per cent probability of an above-average season. On average, the Atlantic hurricane season sees 14 named storms, with seven becoming hurricanes and three of those strengthening to Category 3 or higher to become a major hurricane. This year's outlook anticipates 13 to 19 named storms, with six to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes. The reasons for an above-average outlook include: Neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the Pacific, so there will be no El Niño to impede Atlantic hurricane development by strengthening trade winds; Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic basin, an issue because ocean heat fuels tropical cyclones; and A northern shift of the West African monsoon, where many strong Atlantic storms begin as tropical waves. The Atlantic hurricane season begins each year on June 1 and ends on Nov. 30, peaking in late August and September. Atlantic Canada is more at risk for seeing strong storms in late summer and early fall, which coincides with that peak. An above-average Atlantic hurricane season does not necessarily mean more activity in Atlantic Canada, however. With 30 named storms, the 2020 season was the most active on record, but Teddy was the only storm to have an impact on Atlantic Canada that year. The storm made landfall on Sept. 23 near Ecum Secum, N.S., after transitioning to post-tropical status, but did not cause major damage. In contrast, the 2022 season was an average one with 14 named storms, but that was the year Fiona left a wide trail of devastation when it arrived in Atlantic Canada as a post-tropical storm.
Yahoo
21-05-2025
- Health
- Yahoo
Tropical cyclones may be linked to infant mortality in at-risk low- and middle-income countries, new research suggests
Exposure to tropical cyclones could have an impact on young babies' ability to survive in poorer countries, scientists have found. A mother living through a tropical cyclone while pregnant, or a infant living through a tropical cyclone during the first year of life, may be associated with higher infant mortality when combining data from seven low- and middle-income countries, according to a paper published on Wednesday in Science Advances. MORE: Black infant mortality rate more than double the rate among white infants: CDC Exposure to cyclones was linked to 4.4 additional infant deaths per 1,000 live births in the aggregate study, which included: Madagascar, India, Bangladesh, Cambodia, the Philippines, the Dominican Republic and Haiti. These countries were studied because they, historically, have a higher risk of tropical cyclones. Researchers compared tropical wind field data with more than 1.6 million infant survival records. They identified 148,384 babies who were exposed to tropical cyclones in utero or during the first year of life. Most of these babies (109,051) were exposed to tropical storms, which are the weakest type of tropical cyclone. Bangladesh, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti seemed to generate a higher amount of infantile deaths linked to tropical cyclones -- the 11% increase in infant mortality was mostly driven data from those countries, Zachary Wagner, an associate professor at the University of Southern California's Center for Economic and Social Research and co-author of the paper, told ABC News. Researchers did not identify a significant impact of tropical cyclones on infant mortality in India, which had the largest number of people exposed to tropical cyclones. They believe that this result may be due to India having better systems in place to handle storms. The mortality effect on babies seemed to carry over from tropical storm to Category 1 and 2 storms, the researchers said. However, this association was not as pronounced. In the study, they also noted that Category 3 or stronger storms are much rare relative to lower-intensity storms. However, climate scientists predict that storms will become more extreme in the future due to global warming, which could impact vulnerable populations even more, according to the researchers. "So there's no reason to expect this to get a lot better over time, but there is reason to expect this to get worse over time," Wagner said. MORE: Climate change making Atlantic hurricanes twice as likely to strengthen from weak to major intensity in 24 hours Wagner was inspired to study the impact of tropical cyclones on infant mortality following his work on how armed conflict impacts pediatric health in war-torn countries for over a decade, he said. He noted that the paper was partially funded by the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, a part of the National Institute of Health, so the researchers could look into the issue on a large scale. "We started looking at flooding and tropical cyclones, and we're starting to look at heat and all these big weather events that can have these catastrophic effects in a lot of different areas around the globe," Wagner said. The effect of being exposed to tropical cyclones, on average, had a similar effect on infant mortality compared to armed conflict, according to Wagner. "The difference is that there's a lot more armed conflict than there are tropical cyclones, so the overall contribution to child mortality -- the effect is larger," he said. MORE: Extreme weather events prove climate change is already here The article suggested that less baseline vulnerability, better designed structures and better emergency response systems could all contribute to lessening infant mortality influenced by tropical cyclones. The study did not identify statistical differences, either in individual countries or overall, in hospital antenatal care visits or the number of children being born in health care facilities as a result of tropical cyclones. "We don't know which of those is actually explaining the difference, though," Wagner said. "Further research on understanding the mechanisms that are driving these deaths so that we can intervene in an effective way is necessary," Wagner said. In the future, the researchers will also be looking into how other vulnerable populations in the U.S., such as the elderly, can be affected by tropical cyclones -- such as disruptions in medication use or access to healthcare facilities for preventative care, he added. Tropical cyclones may be linked to infant mortality in at-risk low- and middle-income countries, new research suggests originally appeared on
Yahoo
18-05-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Forecasters note an unusual pattern ahead of hurricane season
An unusual pattern has emerged ahead of Atlantic hurricane season: No tropical cyclones have formed anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere in 2025 as of May 16. This includes all tropical storms, hurricanes, typhoons and cyclones north of the equator in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. The dry spell is not unprecedented — in fact, something similar happened last year ahead of a devastating hurricane season in the United States. The slow start has been matched 5 other times (1973, 1983, 1984, 1998, and 2024) in the last 75 years, according to Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach. Most of those years ended with below-average seasons for the Northern Hemisphere overall. On average, he said 3.5 storms typically would have formed by now. More: A top hurricane forecast is here, and it brings bad news: Danger is already brewing Typically the Atlantic, eastern North Pacific and North Indian Ocean are pretty quiet through mid-May, Klotzbach said. "So, the western North Pacific tends to be the primary contributor to named storm activity this time of year," he told USA TODAY. The quiet in the western Pacific is due to unusual wind patterns near the Philippines. "This wind pattern creates anti-cyclonic flow, which is not supportive for storm formations," he said. Klotzbach said that's hard to say. "For example, the average number of Northern Hemisphere named storms in a season is 62. Here are the final Northern Hemisphere named storm totals for the other years that had no named storms through May 16: 1973 - 45 1983 - 51 1984 - 65 1998 - 53 2024 - 58 "4 of the 5 years ended up with below-average Northern Hemisphere named storms, but 2024 was just slightly below normal," he said. 1973 was an unusually quiet year for storms in the Northern Hemisphere. That year set a record for the latest first storm, Klotzbach said: Ava formed in the eastern North Pacific on June 2 that year. Unlike the Northern Hemisphere, the Southern Hemisphere has been quite busy during the 2024-25 season (July 1, 2024 - present). Southern Hemisphere storms include those that threaten locations such as Australia. He said 31 Southern Hemisphere named storms have formed so far, while the average is 25 named storms through May 16. Meteorologist Ryan Maue, also on X, said that while an early season tropical storm is possible in the Eastern Pacific through the end of May, top weather models show a quiet pattern for the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico (renamed the Gulf of America by the U.S. government). This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Forecasters note an unusual lull ahead of hurricane season: What now?
E&E News
16-05-2025
- Climate
- E&E News
NOAA expects below-normal Pacific hurricane season
Between one and four tropical cyclones are forecast to form in the Pacific Basin this year, NOAA said, which would be a below-normal season. In an early season Pacific storm forecast, NOAA's Central Pacific Hurricane Center and Climate Prediction Center said the outlook 'is a guide to the overall seasonal tropical cyclone activity in the central Pacific Basin and does not predict whether or how many of these systems will affect Hawaii.' A near-normal season, which starts June 1, has four or five tropical storms. 'Even though this season is predicted to be less active, now is the time for residents and businesses to prepare for hurricane season,' Chris Brenchley, director of the Central Pacific Hurricane Center, said in a news release. Advertisement The central Pacific is defined as ocean area north of the equator and between 140 degrees west and the International Date Line.
