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Yahoo
5 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
2025 NFL betting preview: 3 over/unders to bet right now
It's that time of year again. The 2025-26 NFL season is approaching, and we can dive into some futures bets. I always look forward to betting NFL futures compared to other sports because the league is historically volatile. Since 1990, an average of 5.85 new teams make the playoffs each season, and win totals typically finish about 2.5 wins off their preseason lines. There is value to be found; it's just a matter of identifying it correctly. The market I always target first for futures betting is season win totals, and there are three main reasons why. First, without getting too deep into the gambling math, these bets take place in a low-hold market. 'Hold' refers to the rake rate the sportsbook makes on a given bet. Awards markets, for example, often have three times the hold of a season win-total market. The same betting angle can often be approached in multiple ways, so finding the lowest-hold option can maximize your edge. Second, there's the availability of 'outs.' The season win-total market is usually reopened weekly with updated odds. This allows bettors to double down, hedge, open a middle or time schedule wrinkles into their strategy. It creates more flexibility within the bet type throughout the season. Finally, these futures tend to pay out the fastest. For instance, if you bet a team over 8.5 wins and a team reaches nine wins by Week 12, the bet is graded, the funds are returned and your balance is freed up to jump on another actionable angle. After scouring the market for NFL win totals, evaluating where different books have priced their lines, where initial movement has occurred and how each team's schedule looks, three bets clearly stood out to me. Here are my three favorite NFL over/unders to bet right now (as always, shop around for the best price): New England Patriots over 8.5 wins (-115 at BetMGM) This was my first NFL futures bet placed this season. The Patriots have the second-easiest schedule in the league based on the combined projected win totals of their opponents. Using the lookahead lines available now, they are currently favored in 11 games. The Patriots bring in head coach Mike Vrabel, who has gone over his win total in four of six seasons as an NFL head coach and who previously helmed a Ryan Tannehill-led team to the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. Vrabel is a culture-setter, and his teams play physical, high-IQ football and often exceed expectations. Some sportsbooks initially opened this line at 7.5 (-140 to the over, +120 to the under), but it was quickly bet up to 8.5. Since one win is worth approximately 45 cents of vig, the current line at some sportsbooks of 8.5 at +105 is very similar in value and still worth betting. The only truly difficult stretch in the Patriots' schedule begins in Week 12, when three of four games come against the Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens. Set a reminder for Nov. 14 to start evaluating your outs between their Week 11 matchup against the Jets and Week 12 against the Bengals, right before the tough part of the schedule kicks in. New Orleans Saints under 5.5 wins (-145) I think the Saints may be the worst team in the NFL this season and are a full fade. First-year head coach Kellen Moore takes over a team stuck in salary cap hell. The Saints will carry nearly $50 million in 'dead cap' money (funds they cannot use to improve the roster). That's the highest figure in the NFL this season and is typically a strong indicator of an impending rough year. Simply put, this team is bereft of talent and effectively operating with about 20% less spending power than most others. At quarterback, their options are either second-round rookie Tyler Shough or second-year fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler following Derek Carr's abrupt retirement this offseason. The division around them is also getting stronger: Atlanta should improve with Michael Penix Jr., Carolina appears more competent with Bryce Young entering Year 2, and Tampa Bay has proven to be a consistently competitive team. The betting market has already reacted, knocking this win total down a full game from 6.5 to 5.5, but the under is still worth playing for 1 unit. Los Angeles Chargers over 9.5 wins (-110) The Chargers have everything I look for when backing an NFL team on their preseason win total: a great coach and proven winner in Jim Harbaugh, a top-tier quarterback in Justin Herbert — whom film scouts still rank near the top five despite modest stats — and a strong offensive line paired with a reliable running game. The reason Herbert's numbers don't jump off the page is largely because the team has emphasized balance. The Chargers added Najee Harris this offseason, and he's never rushed for fewer than 1,000 yards in a season. He's durable and will now run behind the best offensive line of his career. On top of that, the division is due to regress. The Chiefs survived last season by winning an unsustainable number of one-score games, including both of their matchups against the Chargers. The Chiefs have beaten the Chargers seven straight times, and six of those have been one-score games. Now, looking at the Chargers' schedule, there's a slight wrinkle in the timing of when to bet this line. They open the season at home against Kansas City, where they're already 2.5-point underdogs. Their next three games are at the Raiders, vs. the Broncos, and at the Giants — all games where they'll be favored. I recommend placing a half-unit bet now, then revisiting after Week 1 regardless of the outcome. If the Chargers lose, the win total should remain at 9.5, possibly with plus-money odds. If they win, the number may move to 10.5 or become a heavily juiced over 9.5, both of which I'd still feel comfortable playing.
Yahoo
7 days ago
- Sport
- Yahoo
Our favorite college football win total bets ahead of the 2025 season
Preseason win totals are a great way to assess a team's predicted strength ahead of a college football season. BetMGM has win totals available for every team in college football, though you need to know how to read the lines. Clemson, for example, has an over/under of 9.5 wins in 2025. The over seems like a no-brainer, right? Well the odds on Clemson winning 10 or more of its 12 regular-season games are -235. You'd win just $4.26 on a $10 bet. With the season just weeks away, here are 10 of our favorite win total bets ahead of the season. Arkansas under 5.5 wins (-145) Sam Pittman is one of the coaches under the most pressure ahead of the 2025 season and the Razorbacks' schedule isn't doing him any favors. Arkansas has a tough draw in the SEC and also has Notre Dame at home along with a road trip to Memphis. [Join or create a Yahoo Fantasy Football league for the 2025 NFL season] Even if the Razorbacks go 3-1 outside of SEC play, they need to find three wins in conference play. Given the schedule includes four daunting road trips, we're not sold on Arkansas making a bowl game for the second straight season. Auburn under 7.5 wins (+140) Hugh Freeze thinks his team has a shot to be in the playoff conversation at the end of the season. We think they have a shot to be under .500 at the end of September. Auburn has road games at Baylor, Oklahoma and Texas A&M over the first month of the season before hosting Georgia and Missouri in October. There's a very real possibility that Auburn will be 2-4 before Mizzou visits on Oct. 18 and that would leave little margin for error if Auburn has any hope of hitting the over. Baylor over 7.5 wins (-105) We might as well go ahead and officially pick the Bears to win that Week 1 game against Auburn. Baylor has a tough schedule in 2025, with a trip to SMU in Week 2 along with Big 12 games against Arizona State, Kansas State and Utah. But all of those contests are at home. We're high on Baylor after the team closed the 2024 season with six straight wins. The Bears just missed out on our top 25 and should be a contender for the Big 12 championship game. Illinois over 7.5 wins (-185) The juice isn't in your favor to go with this over, but it's the right play for a team that could find itself on the periphery of the playoff discussion. Illinois has a ton of players back from a team that went 10-3 in 2024 and a Big Ten schedule that isn't daunting. An 8-4 season should be the floor for the Illini barring a catastrophe. Kent State under 1.5 wins (+150) The good news is that Kent State's 21-game losing streak shouldn't extend to 22. The Golden Flashes host FCS school Merrimack in Week 1. But that could be the team's only win in 2025. Kent State was outscored by an average of 44-14 in 2024 and will be playing under interim coach Mark Carney after the firing of Kenni Burns this spring. Carney inherited one of the toughest jobs in college football and simply hitting the over may be a cause for celebration. But outside of a home game vs. Mass on Oct. 11, it's hard to see where Kent State has a shot for a second win. LSU over 8.5 wins (-150) This is simply a value play. The Tigers are the No. 9 favorite to win the national title, the No. 4 favorite to win the SEC and +130 to make the College Football Playoff. If LSU is going to make the playoff — a possibility that's realistic based on the odds — it's going 9-3 or better. For comparison's sake, Michigan's odds to win more than 8.5 games are at -175 and the Wolverines' playoff odds are at +200. Yes, the dichotomy in LSU's odds has to do with the team's schedule. The Tigers open at Clemson in Week 1 and have games at Ole Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma. But we're high enough on LSU to back up our preseason ranking with a bet on the over. Missouri over 7.5 wins (+135) Missouri has won 23 games over the past two seasons and added a ton of talented transfers to a defense that's given up fewer than 21 points per game over that stretch. Quarterback is a bit of a question mark as former Penn State backup Beau Pribula is in line to replace Brady Cook and the wide receiver group needs to find players to step up in the absence of Luther Burden III and Theo Wease. But the schedule is manageable, with home games against South Carolina and Texas A&M along with the renewal of rivalry series with Kansas also coming at Faurot Field. Oklahoma over 7.5 wins (+120) We have the Sooners at No. 12 in our preseason rankings and think Oklahoma is in line for a massive season. We've outlined the reasons why Oklahoma should be good despite a very tough schedule. John Mateer was one of the best QBs in college football in 2024 and the defense should be excellent again. We'll happily take plus odds for a team we think is among the 15 best in college football. Stanford under 3.5 wins (-175) Like Illinois, you're not going to get much return if this bet hits, but it's hard to see it not hitting. Stanford has gone 3-9 in each of the past four seasons and is in a transition year with former NFL coach Frank Reich as the team's interim coach following the firing of Troy Taylor. Reich is going to be one-and-done in Palo Alto and Stanford has a schedule that includes non-conference games against BYU and Notre Dame. The ACC schedule includes games at SMU, Miami and North Carolina as well along with a cross-country trip to Virginia. Utah over 7.5 wins (-165) A solid quarterback should go a long way for the Utes. Devon Dampier arrives from New Mexico after throwing for over 2,000 yards and rushing for over 1,000 in 2024. All five starters return on the offensive line to provide him and Washington State transfer RB Wayshawn Parker some serious run lanes. Trips to UCLA and Wyoming over the first three weeks of the season could be sneaky tests, but Utah has 10-win potential this season.
Yahoo
28-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
2025 NFL betting: 3 over/unders to bet right now
It's that time of year again. The 2025-26 NFL season is approaching, and we can dive into some futures bets. I always look forward to betting NFL futures compared to other sports because the league is historically volatile. Since 1990, an average of 5.85 new teams make the playoffs each season, and win totals typically finish about 2.5 wins off their preseason lines. There is value to be found; it's just a matter of identifying it correctly. The market I always target first for futures betting is season win totals, and there are three main reasons why. First, without getting too deep into the gambling math, these bets take place in a low-hold market. 'Hold' refers to the rake rate the sportsbook makes on a given bet. Awards markets, for example, often have three times the hold of a season win-total market. The same betting angle can often be approached in multiple ways, so finding the lowest-hold option can maximize your edge. Second, there's the availability of 'outs.' The season win-total market is usually reopened weekly with updated odds. This allows bettors to double down, hedge, open a middle or time schedule wrinkles into their strategy. It creates more flexibility within the bet type throughout the season. Finally, these futures tend to pay out the fastest. For instance, if you bet a team over 8.5 wins and a team reaches nine wins by Week 12, the bet is graded, the funds are returned and your balance is freed up to jump on another actionable angle. After scouring the market for NFL win totals, evaluating where different books have priced their lines, where initial movement has occurred and how each team's schedule looks, three bets clearly stood out to me. Here are my three favorite NFL over/unders to bet right now (as always, shop around for the best price): New England Patriots over 8.5 wins (-115 at BetMGM) This was my first NFL futures bet placed this season. The Patriots have the second-easiest schedule in the league based on the combined projected win totals of their opponents. Using the lookahead lines available now, they are currently favored in 11 games. The Patriots bring in head coach Mike Vrabel, who has gone over his win total in four of six seasons as an NFL head coach and who previously helmed a Ryan Tannehill-led team to the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. Vrabel is a culture-setter, and his teams play physical, high-IQ football and often exceed expectations. Some sportsbooks initially opened this line at 7.5 (-140 to the over, +120 to the under), but it was quickly bet up to 8.5. Since one win is worth approximately 45 cents of vig, the current line at some sportsbooks of 8.5 at +105 is very similar in value and still worth betting. The only truly difficult stretch in the Patriots' schedule begins in Week 12, when three of four games come against the Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens. Set a reminder for Nov. 14 to start evaluating your outs between their Week 11 matchup against the Jets and Week 12 against the Bengals, right before the tough part of the schedule kicks in. New Orleans Saints under 5.5 wins (-145) I think the Saints may be the worst team in the NFL this season and are a full fade. First-year head coach Kellen Moore takes over a team stuck in salary cap hell. The Saints will carry nearly $50 million in 'dead cap' money (funds they cannot use to improve the roster). That's the highest figure in the NFL this season and is typically a strong indicator of an impending rough year. Simply put, this team is bereft of talent and effectively operating with about 20% less spending power than most others. At quarterback, their options are either second-round rookie Tyler Shough or second-year fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler following Derek Carr's abrupt retirement this offseason. The division around them is also getting stronger: Atlanta should improve with Michael Penix Jr., Carolina appears more competent with Bryce Young entering Year 2, and Tampa Bay has proven to be a consistently competitive team. The betting market has already reacted, knocking this win total down a full game from 6.5 to 5.5, but the under is still worth playing for 1 unit. Los Angeles Chargers over 9.5 wins (-110) The Chargers have everything I look for when backing an NFL team on their preseason win total: a great coach and proven winner in Jim Harbaugh, a top-tier quarterback in Justin Herbert — whom film scouts still rank near the top five despite modest stats — and a strong offensive line paired with a reliable running game. The reason Herbert's numbers don't jump off the page is largely because the team has emphasized balance. The Chargers added Najee Harris this offseason, and he's never rushed for fewer than 1,000 yards in a season. He's durable and will now run behind the best offensive line of his career. On top of that, the division is due to regress. The Chiefs survived last season by winning an unsustainable number of one-score games, including both of their matchups against the Chargers. The Chiefs have beaten the Chargers seven straight times, and six of those have been one-score games. Now, looking at the Chargers' schedule, there's a slight wrinkle in the timing of when to bet this line. They open the season at home against Kansas City, where they're already 2.5-point underdogs. Their next three games are at the Raiders, vs. the Broncos, and at the Giants — all games where they'll be favored. I recommend placing a half-unit bet now, then revisiting after Week 1 regardless of the outcome. If the Chargers lose, the win total should remain at 9.5, possibly with plus-money odds. If they win, the number may move to 10.5 or become a heavily juiced over 9.5, both of which I'd still feel comfortable playing.
Yahoo
28-07-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
2025 NFL betting: Three over/unders to bet right now
It's that time of year again. The 2025-26 NFL season is approaching, and we can dive into some futures bets. I always look forward to betting NFL futures compared to other sports because the league is historically volatile. Since 1990, an average of 5.85 new teams make the playoffs each season, and win totals typically finish about 2.5 wins off their preseason lines. There is value to be found; it's just a matter of identifying it correctly. The market I always target first for futures betting is season win totals, and there are three main reasons why. First, without getting too deep into the gambling math, these bets take place in a low-hold market. 'Hold' refers to the rake rate the sportsbook makes on a given bet. Awards markets, for example, often have three times the hold of a season win-total market. The same betting angle can often be approached in multiple ways, so finding the lowest-hold option can maximize your edge. Second, there's the availability of 'outs.' The season win-total market is usually reopened weekly with updated odds. This allows bettors to double down, hedge, open a middle or time schedule wrinkles into their strategy. It creates more flexibility within the bet type throughout the season. Finally, these futures tend to pay out the fastest. For instance, if you bet a team over 8.5 wins and a team reaches nine wins by Week 12, the bet is graded, the funds are returned and your balance is freed up to jump on another actionable angle. After scouring the market for NFL win totals, evaluating where different books have priced their lines, where initial movement has occurred and how each team's schedule looks, three bets clearly stood out to me. Here are my three favorite NFL over/unders to bet right now (as always, shop around for the best price): New England Patriots over 8.5 wins (-115 at BetMGM) This was my first NFL futures bet placed this season. The Patriots have the second-easiest schedule in the league based on the combined projected win totals of their opponents. Using the lookahead lines available now, they are currently favored in 11 games. The Patriots bring in head coach Mike Vrabel, who has gone over his win total in four of six seasons as an NFL head coach and who previously helmed a Ryan Tannehill-led team to the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. Vrabel is a culture-setter, and his teams play physical, high-IQ football and often exceed expectations. Some sportsbooks initially opened this line at 7.5 (-140 to the over, +120 to the under), but it was quickly bet up to 8.5. Since one win is worth approximately 45 cents of vig, the current line at some sportsbooks of 8.5 at +105 is very similar in value and still worth betting. The only truly difficult stretch in the Patriots' schedule begins in Week 12, when three of four games come against the Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens. Set a reminder for Nov. 14 to start evaluating your outs between their Week 11 matchup against the Jets and Week 12 against the Bengals, right before the tough part of the schedule kicks in. New Orleans Saints under 5.5 wins (-145) I think the Saints may be the worst team in the NFL this season and are a full fade. First-year head coach Kellen Moore takes over a team stuck in salary cap hell. The Saints will carry nearly $50 million in 'dead cap' money (funds they cannot use to improve the roster). That's the highest figure in the NFL this season and is typically a strong indicator of an impending rough year. Simply put, this team is bereft of talent and effectively operating with about 20% less spending power than most others. At quarterback, their options are either second-round rookie Tyler Shough or second-year fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler following Derek Carr's abrupt retirement this offseason. The division around them is also getting stronger: Atlanta should improve with Michael Penix Jr., Carolina appears more competent with Bryce Young entering Year 2, and Tampa Bay has proven to be a consistently competitive team. The betting market has already reacted, knocking this win total down a full game from 6.5 to 5.5, but the under is still worth playing for 1 unit. Los Angeles Chargers over 9.5 wins (-110) The Chargers have everything I look for when backing an NFL team on their preseason win total: a great coach and proven winner in Jim Harbaugh, a top-tier quarterback in Justin Herbert — whom film scouts still rank near the top five despite modest stats — and a strong offensive line paired with a reliable running game. The reason Herbert's numbers don't jump off the page is largely because the team has emphasized balance. The Chargers added Najee Harris this offseason, and he's never rushed for fewer than 1,000 yards in a season. He's durable and will now run behind the best offensive line of his career. On top of that, the division is due to regress. The Chiefs survived last season by winning an unsustainable number of one-score games, including both of their matchups against the Chargers. The Chiefs have beaten the Chargers seven straight times, and six of those have been one-score games. Now, looking at the Chargers' schedule, there's a slight wrinkle in the timing of when to bet this line. They open the season at home against Kansas City, where they're already 2.5-point underdogs. Their next three games are at the Raiders, vs. the Broncos, and at the Giants — all games where they'll be favored. I recommend placing a half-unit bet now, then revisiting after Week 1 regardless of the outcome. If the Chargers lose, the win total should remain at 9.5, possibly with plus-money odds. If they win, the number may move to 10.5 or become a heavily juiced over 9.5, both of which I'd still feel comfortable playing.
