2025 NFL betting: Three over/unders to bet right now
Since 1990, an average of 5.85 new teams make the playoffs each season, and win totals typically finish about 2.5 wins off their preseason lines. There is value to be found; it's just a matter of identifying it correctly.
The market I always target first for futures betting is season win totals, and there are three main reasons why.
First, without getting too deep into the gambling math, these bets take place in a low-hold market. 'Hold' refers to the rake rate the sportsbook makes on a given bet. Awards markets, for example, often have three times the hold of a season win-total market. The same betting angle can often be approached in multiple ways, so finding the lowest-hold option can maximize your edge.
Second, there's the availability of 'outs.' The season win-total market is usually reopened weekly with updated odds. This allows bettors to double down, hedge, open a middle or time schedule wrinkles into their strategy. It creates more flexibility within the bet type throughout the season.
Finally, these futures tend to pay out the fastest. For instance, if you bet a team over 8.5 wins and a team reaches nine wins by Week 12, the bet is graded, the funds are returned and your balance is freed up to jump on another actionable angle.
After scouring the market for NFL win totals, evaluating where different books have priced their lines, where initial movement has occurred and how each team's schedule looks, three bets clearly stood out to me.
Here are my three favorite NFL over/unders to bet right now (as always, shop around for the best price):
New England Patriots over 8.5 wins (-115 at BetMGM)
This was my first NFL futures bet placed this season. The Patriots have the second-easiest schedule in the league based on the combined projected win totals of their opponents. Using the lookahead lines available now, they are currently favored in 11 games.
The Patriots bring in head coach Mike Vrabel, who has gone over his win total in four of six seasons as an NFL head coach and who previously helmed a Ryan Tannehill-led team to the No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. Vrabel is a culture-setter, and his teams play physical, high-IQ football and often exceed expectations.
Some sportsbooks initially opened this line at 7.5 (-140 to the over, +120 to the under), but it was quickly bet up to 8.5. Since one win is worth approximately 45 cents of vig, the current line at some sportsbooks of 8.5 at +105 is very similar in value and still worth betting.
The only truly difficult stretch in the Patriots' schedule begins in Week 12, when three of four games come against the Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens. Set a reminder for Nov. 14 to start evaluating your outs between their Week 11 matchup against the Jets and Week 12 against the Bengals, right before the tough part of the schedule kicks in.
New Orleans Saints under 5.5 wins (-145)
I think the Saints may be the worst team in the NFL this season and are a full fade. First-year head coach Kellen Moore takes over a team stuck in salary cap hell. The Saints will carry nearly $50 million in 'dead cap' money (funds they cannot use to improve the roster). That's the highest figure in the NFL this season and is typically a strong indicator of an impending rough year.
Simply put, this team is bereft of talent and effectively operating with about 20% less spending power than most others. At quarterback, their options are either second-round rookie Tyler Shough or second-year fifth-round pick Spencer Rattler following Derek Carr's abrupt retirement this offseason.
The division around them is also getting stronger: Atlanta should improve with Michael Penix Jr., Carolina appears more competent with Bryce Young entering Year 2, and Tampa Bay has proven to be a consistently competitive team.
The betting market has already reacted, knocking this win total down a full game from 6.5 to 5.5, but the under is still worth playing for 1 unit.
Los Angeles Chargers over 9.5 wins (-110)
The Chargers have everything I look for when backing an NFL team on their preseason win total: a great coach and proven winner in Jim Harbaugh, a top-tier quarterback in Justin Herbert — whom film scouts still rank near the top five despite modest stats — and a strong offensive line paired with a reliable running game.
The reason Herbert's numbers don't jump off the page is largely because the team has emphasized balance. The Chargers added Najee Harris this offseason, and he's never rushed for fewer than 1,000 yards in a season. He's durable and will now run behind the best offensive line of his career.
On top of that, the division is due to regress. The Chiefs survived last season by winning an unsustainable number of one-score games, including both of their matchups against the Chargers. The Chiefs have beaten the Chargers seven straight times, and six of those have been one-score games.
Now, looking at the Chargers' schedule, there's a slight wrinkle in the timing of when to bet this line. They open the season at home against Kansas City, where they're already 2.5-point underdogs. Their next three games are at the Raiders, vs. the Broncos, and at the Giants — all games where they'll be favored.
I recommend placing a half-unit bet now, then revisiting after Week 1 regardless of the outcome. If the Chargers lose, the win total should remain at 9.5, possibly with plus-money odds. If they win, the number may move to 10.5 or become a heavily juiced over 9.5, both of which I'd still feel comfortable playing.
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