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Al Arabiya
04-04-2025
- Business
- Al Arabiya
Sanctioned Russia escapes immediate US tariff hit, braces for long-term impact
The Russian economy, mainly insulated from Western markets by sanctions, has escaped immediate damage from sweeping US tariffs but the Kremlin said on Friday it needs to take extra measures to minimize the impact of resulting market turbulence. President Donald Trump this week unveiled a 10 percent baseline tariff on all imports to the US and much higher duties on many of the country's biggest trading partners, triggering a plunge in world financial markets and fears of a global downturn. Russia, along with Belarus, Cuba and North Korea - some of the world's most heavily sanctioned countries - avoided additional tariffs. The US said sanctions imposed over military action in Ukraine 'preclude any meaningful trade.' Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow had avoided Trump's punitive measures because it had no 'tangible' trade with Washington due to sanctions, but officials were monitoring global markets for potential negative effects on the economy. Goods trade between the two countries was $3.5 billion last year, according to US figures, down from $36 billion in 2021, the year before the full-scale conflict in Ukraine began. 'We see quite a high level of turbulence in international markets,' Peskov said. 'We are hearing very unfavorable forecasts from various economists, including world-renowned economists, who are pessimistic about this latest news.' 'Let's just say that with a storm like this, we need to be very careful to minimize the negative effects on our economy,' Peskov said. Ruble little changed despite oil price drop The Russian ruble was little changed against the US dollar and China's yuan, the most traded foreign currency in Russia, despite turmoil in the global forex market and the US dollar's decline against other currencies. It also did not react strongly to a 2 percent drop in oil prices, Russia's main export commodity. The ruble has rallied by 25 percent since the start of the year, primarily due to expectations of easing tensions with the US. 'The ruble has immunity to global currency fluctuations,' analysts from BCS Express brokerage said. Some in Russia praised Trump's actions. 'President Trump's tariff strategy reflects a growing shift toward economic sovereignty and national interest,' said Kirill Dmitriev, the Kremlin's special envoy on international economic cooperation, who visited the US for talks with US officials this week. 'By prioritizing domestic industry and correcting structural trade imbalances, the US sets a precedent for self-reliant growth and sustainable job creation.' Cautious note Despite a sharp reduction in trade, Russia supplied $1.3 billion worth of fertilizer to the U.S. in 2024, according to the UN's Comtrade database, ranking as the second biggest supplier after Canada. Fertiliser exports to the US have escaped sanctions but some are already subject to duties. Industry sources told Reuters that Russian fertilizer supplies would be affected by the 10 percent baseline tariffs in addition to earlier duties, while levies on other suppliers were unlikely to significantly improve the position of Russian firms. The central bank struck a cautious note, having warned last week that oil prices could be lower than forecast for several years due to reduced global demand. 'The increase in import duties in the US and retaliatory measures by other countries have raised the risks of a slowdown in global economic growth and an acceleration of inflation,' the Russian regulator said.
The Guardian
19-02-2025
- Business
- The Guardian
The rise of the far right, global trade and Ukraine's future: why the German election matters
A key question for Germany, its neighbours and trade partners, is what coalition deal can be done after the election. Germany's electoral system is meticulously proportional, so it's very unlikely that any party will be able to govern alone. Friedrich Merz is leader of the CDU/CSU conservative alliance, who are polling at nearly 30%, so the chancellorship is very much his to lose. The CDU has said it will maintain the Brandmauer – or firewall – policy of not going into alliance with the far right, which includes the AfD. But the firewall has been seriously compromised during the election campaign, when Merz tried to pass a Bundestag motion with AfD support – the attempt only failed because rebels in the CDU refused to cooperate. The CDU may be able to form a coalition with the Greens, or may have to rely on a 'grand coalition' with the Social Democrats. But in all likelihood, a sizeable vote will have been recorded for the AfD and their stances on Europe and Ukraine. This may make the coalition less stable, particularly if Merz's CDU continues its attempt to woo AfD voters. And excluding AfD from coalition talks will reinforce the populist narrative of a lockout by the liberal elite. Sources: Population, land area, GDP from Our World in Data, latest available figures. Car parts exports 2023 from UN Comtrade database. Ukraine assistance from the Kiel Institute. Polling from Party positioning from PopuList. EU contribution figures from the 2023 budget. Length of government calculated using the parlgov database.
Yahoo
26-01-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Trump issuing ‘emergency 25% tariffs' against Colombia after country turned back deportation flights
President Donald Trump on Sunday announced retaliatory tariffs on Colombia after its president said he blocked US military deportation flights, the first instance of Trump using economic pressure to force other nations to fall in line with his mass deportation plans since he took office last week. Earlier in the day, Colombian President Gustavo Petro announced he had blocked two US military flights carrying migrants heading toward the country and called on the United States to establish better protocols in its treatment of migrants. Petro also left the door open to receiving repatriated migrants traveling on civilian planes. Following Petro's announcement, Trump criticized him on social media while announcing a slate of new sanctions and policies targeting Colombia, including a 25% tariff on all imports from the country, a 'travel ban' for Colombian citizens, and a revocation of visas for Colombian officials in the US along with 'all allies and supporters.' Trump also ordered stricter inspections of cargo shipments arriving from Colombia, along with banking and finance sanctions and visa sanctions on 'all Party Members, Family Members, and Supporters of the Colombian Government.' 'These measures are just the beginning. We will not allow the Colombian Government to violate its legal obligations with regard to the acceptance and return of the Criminals they forced into the United States!' Trump wrote on Truth Social. Trump's reaction to Colombia's rejection of repatriated citizens marks the first major clash with another country over immigration issues since he began his second term. The US began using military aircraft to return immigrants who entered the country illegally back to their countries of origin last week. On Thursday, the US returned migrants to Guatemala using military planes. The US is also asking Mexico with help repatriating its nationals via land ports of entry along the US-Mexico border, though Mexico also appeared to turn around a military flight heading for the country last week. Colombia is not a major trading partner with the United States, shipping roughly $14 billion worth of goods in 2023, the most recent full year of data according to Comtrade, an authority on trade data. Most of Colombia's exports to the United States were minerals, oil, metals and coffee. Coffee prices have shot higher over the past year, and this move by the Trump administration could eventually make prices even more expensive for American consumers. That's because importers pay the tariffs and often pass the increased prices on to consumers. Although tariffs can be an effective negotiating tool, they are generally disliked by economists, who believe they are inflationary and can ignite trade wars, which send prices even higher. That is not a universally held view, though. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, recently told CNBC that if tariffs help with national security and cause a little bit of inflation than people should 'get over it.' But Trump has promised across-the-board tariffs on other countries as soon as this week if their goods aren't manufactured in the United States. Those tariffs could dramatically boost prices for Americans. This story has been updated with additional information. CNN's David Goldman contributed to this report.
