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Bloomberg
4 days ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Hong Kong's Made-in-China Deals Bonanza Risks US Backlash
Hong Kong's long-beleaguered financial industry is entering a lucrative but risky era on the front lines of China's economic rivalry with the US. Fueled by a surge in capital raising by Chinese corporate giants like battery maker Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd and Tesla Inc. rival BYD Co., business is finally booming for dealmakers in the city. First-time share sales have topped $16 billion this year, and PwC projects the market will close 2025 as the world's biggest venue for listings. The city's stock market is up 24%, eclipsing gains in the US and Europe. Corporate debt issuance is on course for an all-time high. Bankers and lawyers say they are busier than they've been in years, with the frenetic pace forcing them to turn down clients and hire staff to ease the load. The burst of activity has brought an end to a yearslong slump that wiped more than $2 trillion from the local stock market and brought dealmaking to a virtual halt. But it has also put Hong Kong — and its bankers — in a perilous position. The city has become inextricably tied to President Xi Jinping's priority industries, risking backlash from Washington politicians who are increasingly questioning where Hong Kong ends and China begins. In a potential sign of things to come, JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon was forced to defend his bank's role on the CATL deal after facing criticism from US lawmakers.


Mint
4 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Lithium bulls getting ahead of themselves on China supply cut
The suspension of a big mine in China may be breathing new life into a depressed global lithium market, but the accompanying rally in shares of lithium producers has run too hard, too fast, analysts say. Lithium stocks began the week with a bang, chasing prices for the battery metal higher after China's Contemporary Amperex Technology, or CATL, said its license for a mine in Jiangxi province had expired and that production there had been suspended. Shares in some lithium producers climbed by more than 20% on Monday, as investors bet that Chinese supply cuts could extend beyond the CATL mine closure. Beijing is generally seeking to curb excess industrial capacity, an issue that has fueled hyper-competition and worsened deflationary pressures. Yet there remains a lot the market doesn't know about how future lithium output may be affected in China, analysts say. 'The actual supply disruption could be more muted than equities might suggest," UBS analysts said in a research note. CATL said it would resume production at the site in Jiangxi if its license is renewed. More broadly, the lithium market remains reasonably well supplied, analysts said. Already, some stock investors are cashing in on Monday's rally. Australian producer Pilbara Minerals fell by nearly 1% Tuesday, giving up a little of its 20% gain the day prior. Another miner, Liontown Resources, dropped by 8% following an 18% gain a day earlier. To be sure, a reduction in Chinese lithium supply could mark a turning point in a market that has been weighed by a global glut. Prices for lithium have fallen by as much as 90% since notching a record high in 2022, a rally that sparked a wave of new lithium investments and led to the current oversupply. The UBS analysts have raised their forecasts for lithium prices on expectations of supply disruptions in China. There appears to be a recovery on the horizon, they said. Still, stock prices have moved too quickly in response, said the analysts. Others agree. The rally is underpinned by bullish sentiment about China's campaign against unhealthy competition, rather than industry supply and demand fundamentals, Macquarie analysts said in a note. 'If the production suspension expectations are not met, sentiment could quickly reverse," and 'a market repricing demand and supply again could result [in a] correction in lithium equity names," they said.


Hindustan Times
4 days ago
- Business
- Hindustan Times
Lithium Bulls Getting Ahead of Themselves on China Supply Cut
The suspension of a big mine in China may be breathing new life into a depressed global lithium market, but the accompanying rally in shares of lithium producers has run too hard, too fast, analysts say. The halt in production at a CATL lithium mine in China gave lithium stocks a boost, but analysts say stock prices have moved too quickly. Lithium stocks began the week with a bang, chasing prices for the battery metal higher after China's Contemporary Amperex Technology, or CATL, said its license for a mine in Jiangxi province had expired and that production there had been suspended. Shares in some lithium producers climbed by more than 20% on Monday, as investors bet that Chinese supply cuts could extend beyond the CATL mine closure. Beijing is generally seeking to curb excess industrial capacity, an issue that has fueled hyper-competition and worsened deflationary pressures. Yet there remains a lot the market doesn't know about how future lithium output may be affected in China, analysts say. 'The actual supply disruption could be more muted than equities might suggest,' UBS analysts said in a research note. CATL said it would resume production at the site in Jiangxi if its license is renewed. More broadly, the lithium market remains reasonably well supplied, analysts said. Already, some stock investors are cashing in on Monday's rally. Australian producer Pilbara Minerals fell by nearly 1% Tuesday, giving up a little of its 20% gain the day prior. Another miner, Liontown Resources, dropped by 8% following an 18% gain a day earlier. To be sure, a reduction in Chinese lithium supply could mark a turning point in a market that has been weighed by a global glut. Prices for lithium have fallen by as much as 90% since notching a record high in 2022, a rally that sparked a wave of new lithium investments and led to the current oversupply. The UBS analysts have raised their forecasts for lithium prices on expectations of supply disruptions in China. There appears to be a recovery on the horizon, they said. Still, stock prices have moved too quickly in response, said the analysts. Others agree. The rally is underpinned by bullish sentiment about China's campaign against unhealthy competition, rather than industry supply and demand fundamentals, Macquarie analysts said in a note. 'If the production suspension expectations are not met, sentiment could quickly reverse,' and 'a market repricing demand and supply again could result [in a] correction in lithium equity names,' they said. Write to Rhiannon Hoyle at

Wall Street Journal
4 days ago
- Business
- Wall Street Journal
Lithium Bulls Getting Ahead of Themselves on China Supply Cut
The suspension of a big mine in China may be breathing new life into a depressed global lithium market, but the accompanying rally in shares of lithium producers has run too hard, too fast, analysts say. Lithium stocks began the week with a bang, chasing prices for the battery metal higher after China's Contemporary Amperex Technology, or CATL, said its license for a mine in Jiangxi province had expired and that production there had been suspended.

Business Standard
5 days ago
- Business
- Business Standard
Lithium stock rally as CATL mine halt raises prospects of tighter supply
Shares of U.S.-listed lithium producers surged on Monday after Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) halting output at a major mine raised hopes it would erode the oversupply in a market grappling with soft demand. In premarket trading, Albemarle Corp jumped nearly 9 per cent, while Chile's Sociedad Quimica y Minera rose 6.5 per cent and Lithium Americas gained nearly 9 per cent. Smaller companies, Standard Lithium, Piedmont Lithium and Sigma Lithium advanced between 5.6 per cent and 13.8 per cent. Chinese and Australian miners also rallied. The lithium sector has been struggling with a glut following weaker-than-anticipated growth in demand for electric vehicles. The most active lithium carbonate futures in Guangzhou rose the 8 per cent daily limit after CATL said its mining license for the Yichun project in Jiangxi province expired on Aug. 9 and renewal was underway. The site can produce more than 46,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent a year, roughly 3 per cent of the global supply forecast for 2025, according to data from the Australian government. Analysts at Morgan Stanley said the outage could erode the small 60,000-tonne surplus it expects for 2025, bringing "upside risk to lithium prices in the short term" and potentially moving the market closer to balance if other disruptions follow. Longer-term, it expects a surplus to re-emerge without further supply discipline. Morningstar analyst Vincent Sun said the suspension was "an indication that the industry is taking proactive steps to contain further lithium price falls observed year-to-date." With lithium prices now below the marginal cost of production, the move could be perceived as a positive driver to limit supply growth and rebalance the market, he said, but added it was "still too early to confirm a price recovery trend for the rest of the year."