Latest news with #ECMWF
ABC News
2 hours ago
- Climate
- ABC News
Heavy rain set to continue in August, in extension of July's wet weather
Parts of southern Australia have recorded their wettest July in decades following a trio of low-pressure systems during the past week. And as the calendar flips to August, the rain events are forecast to continue. The month will open with yet another low forming, this time off the NSW coast, a system that has the potential to bring heavy rain this weekend. In the meantime, a rainband will also soak WA, kicking off what is likely to become another productive month of wet weather across the country. The recent low-pressure systems have interrupted the monotonous pattern of high-pressure that dominated southern states earlier in 2025. Rain near the third low in the series mostly shifted into NSW later on Tuesday — however light showers under a polar air mass will still impact parts of SA and Victoria during the coming days. For NSW though, it's the beginning of another prolonged wet spell as onshore winds off the Tasman Sea feed moisture into the slow-moving inland mass of cold air. Falls will be heaviest near the coast during the coming days, although moderate falls are also possible over the state's northern inland. The polar air will eventually move east and lead to the formation of a new surface low off the NSW north coast. This next low-pressure system should initially form on Friday, before deepening into the weekend and causing rain to increase along the central and northern coastline. The low won't reach East Coast Low status due to its mobility and only moderate strength, however the system could bring more than 100 millimetres (more than a month's worth of rain) from Friday to Sunday from the Mid North Coast, though the Hunter to eastern Sydney and the Illawarra. While major flooding is unlikely, catchments are still relatively wet after recent rain, and rapid river rises with localised flooding can't be ruled out. As NSW faces a weekend washout, a powerful cold front from the Southern Ocean will spread another burst of strong winds and rain through WA. The front will make landfall on Saturday on the west coast, bringing around 20mm from Lancelin to Albany, then spread lighter rain to central and eastern WA on Sunday. Winds will strengthen near the front, possibly triggering a warning for damaging gusts, an outcome that will become more likely if a few wintry thunderstorms develop. While Perth's heaviest rain is likely on Saturday, post-frontal onshore winds will deliver further showers on Sunday, lifting the city's weekend total to between 20 and 50mm. The BOM's medium range outlooks that cover the weeks ahead are now firmly favouring a wetter-than-normal August. According to the latest BOM modelling for the fortnight from August 9 to 22, there's about a 60 to 70 per cent chance central and eastern Australia will see above-normal rain — increasing to about 80 per cent in southern Queensland and northern NSW. Other global models concur with this scenario. The well-regarded ECMWF model from Europe is also suggesting this month is likely to be wetter than normal. The switch from high to low pressure has delivered rain across more than two-thirds of Australia since early last week, boosting monthly rain totals to the highest in years for many locations. Rain across WA has been particularly heavy — Busselton has received 286mm this July, more than double the average and the town's wettest month in 30 years. Further north, Badgingarra has also recorded its wettest month in 30 years with 196mm, while Perth is having its wettest calendar month since June 2023. For SA, Adelaide's 111mm is the city's wettest July in at least nine years, while Kimba's 111mm is nearly triple the monthly average, and the highest in July since 1956. For Victoria, Charlton is a stand-out — 64mm is enough for its wettest July since 1996.
Irish Daily Mirror
15 hours ago
- Climate
- Irish Daily Mirror
'Worst case scenario' highlighted by weather expert ahead of potential storm
Ireland is facing the prospect of a rare summer storm as an Irish weather expert has identified the risk of heavy winds battering the country next week. Both the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have highlighted the potential of a low-pressure storm heading towards Ireland early next week. Irish weather expert Alan O'Reilly, who mans the popular @CarlowWeather account on X, is monitoring the weather models and revealed that next Tuesday looks like the most likely day for stormy conditions to arrive but there is good news after that. "When it comes on Tuesday - look at this - very, very strong winds right across the country. Now, it's a week out. It's very uncertain. It's going to chop and change but the GFS and the ECMWF are both showing the risk of a low pressure storm moving towards us on Monday or Tuesday, hopefully Tuesday," he said on social media. "I wouldn't get too worried at the moment but it's certainly something to keep an eye on. "The good news is that once that clears, high pressure looks more likely to move in for next week so it might be a short-term loss in terms of some wind and rain but then high pressure moving in so fingers crossed that we get that high pressure and the low pressure stays to the north." Conditions will remain mixed in the lead-up to the weekend, with national forecaster Met Eireann anticipating a good deal of dry weather and temperatures staying in the high teens. This looks set to turn from Saturday, however, as a band of rain is expected to move over the country on August 2 and it will turn heavy at times before Sunday sees scattered showers as temperatures remain in the mid to high teens. Providing some optimism, Mr O'Reilly added that the ECMWF model identifying next week's storm risk is the "worst case scenario." He added: "Good news is the weather model ensembles show that the ECMWF model with storm next Tuesday is currently worst case scenario so hopefully won't end up that bad." Subscribe to our newsletter for the latest news from the Irish Mirror direct to your inbox: Sign up here.
Irish Daily Mirror
a day ago
- Climate
- Irish Daily Mirror
Weather expert issues storm warning as 'very, very strong winds' to hit Ireland
A weather expert has warned that Ireland could be hit by stormy conditions in the early parts of next week. Alan O'Reilly, the hobbyist meteorologist who runs the popular Carlow Weather social media pages, issued a weather update to his followers on Monday evening (July 28) and revealed current models show that "very, very strong winds" are currently forecast to batter the country next Tuesday (August 5). O'Reilly said that both the GFS and ECMWF weather charts show a risk of a low pressure storm making landfall here following the August Bank Holiday weekend, although the weather expert conceded that forecast 'could chop and change' over the coming week. In a video message to his followers, O'Reilly said: "Monday evening, we have some rain moving in from the west going across the country. Rainfall amounts generally low, but there will be some rain. "Tuesday and Wednesday, there will be a lot of cloud [with] some scattered showers. If you are going to the Galway Races bring that brolly or raincoat, but not a lot of rain. "Thursday we will see more in the way of sunny spells, but still some showers as well on Thursday." O'Reilly said that current indications suggest the August Bank Holiday weekend will start off dry with some good sunny spells expected on Friday. However, a spell of rain is forecast to arrive on Saturday, with stormy conditions then predicted to hit on Tuesday. "The good news is Friday's looking pretty good with good sunny spells and not too many showers, so a good start to the long weekend," he said. "Saturday looks okay until a risk of rain moving in from the northwest. Now the worst of that (is) probably over Saturday night into Sunday, but the timing and intensity of that is something to keep an eye on. "Sunday then, very uncertain yet but it looks like it could be a mix of showers as well. "Monday then really, really uncertain. The GFS weather model bring a low with wind and rain moving in from Monday. "The ECMWF weather model, the European one, keeps that away but when it comes [to] Tuesday, very, very strong winds right across the country. "Now, it's a week out, it's very uncertain and so it's going to chop and change, but the GFS and the ECMWF are both showing a risk of a low pressure storm moving us towards Monday, Tuesday, hopefully Tuesday. "But I wouldn't get too worried at the moment, but it's certainly something to keep an eye on." Despite the potential for a storm to arrive next week, O'Reilly said that there is some positive news on the weather front, with current indications suggesting that the storm conditions will be followed by a spell of high pressure which will usher in clear skies, light winds, and generally settled conditions. "The good news is once that clears high pressure looks likely to move in for next week," he told his followers. "So it might be a short term loss in terms of some wind and rain but then high pressure moving in. "So fingers crossed that we get the high pressure and the low pressure stays to the north." Subscribe to our newsletter for the latest news from the Irish Mirror direct to your inbox: Sign up here. The Irish Mirror's Crime Writers Michael O'Toole and Paul Healy are writing a new weekly newsletter called Crime Ireland. Click here to sign up and get it delivered to your inbox every week
North Wales Live
21-07-2025
- Climate
- North Wales Live
Summer's fourth heatwave an emerging threat as maps turn red
A fourth heatwave has been flagged as an emerging threat in early August. Temperatures are predicted to reach 31C in southern Britain with a chance some of this heat will be felt in North Wales. High pressure is currently modelled as moving in from the south-west for a time, bringing warmer conditions with the potential for things to turn hot. GFS data suggests temperatures may hit 28C in southeast Wales by Saturday, August 2. In this scenario, several days of warm to hot weather are possible, with the mercury peaking at 31C in eastern England on Sunday, August 3. Northeast Wales may see 24C-25C, on the edge of heatwave criteria, but conditions will remain cooler in northwest Wales, with some coastal areas struggling to reach seasonal averages. Netweather meteorologist Ian Simpson wrote: 'Long range guidance from the ECMWF 42-day forecasts and the Met Office point towards a likelihood of further generally dry weather in the south of Britain as we head into early August, possibly with high pressure moving in from the south-west for a time and bringing another spell of generally dry sunny weather and potential for it to turn hot again.' The Met Office is more guarded over the timings, saying there is 'only a small chance' of hot spells during late July and early August. However the forecaster said that, in the second week of August, high pressure may build from the southwest, bringing dryer and sunnier weather. In its long-range forecast from August 4-18, the Met Office said: 'There are signs that high pressure to the southwest may try to extend its influence across the UK, which could bring more in the way of dry, settled weather as we head further into August. 'Temperatures will likely continue to be near or above average overall, with a continuing chance of some very warm or hot spells, especially in the south and east, if high pressure wins out for a decent stretch of time.' Join the North Wales Live Whatsapp community now Following Sunday's storms, another Met Office yellow alert for thunderstorms is in place over northeast Wales today (Monday, July 21). In some places, scattered heavy rain showers could yield 20mm-30mm of rain within an hour. A few areas might even see 40-50mm. Over the coming days and weeks, a "strong" Azores high is expected to linger off southwest Britain, occasionally nudging further north. This could bring a few days of higher temperatures in central and southern England from Friday, July 25, with some of this heat also pushing into Wales. Low pressure over Scandinavia may have a say on this scenario. Relatively cool northwesterly flows are expected to continue bringing wet weather to western Scotland – a yellow warning for rain is in place here for Tuesday, July 22 – and this may temper conditions further south going through to next weekend. For this reason, the Met Office describes the rest of July as 'changeable' as weather fronts battle it out. In northern areas it expects spells of rain or showers to be mixed in with some drier, brighter days. Southern Britain may see less of the wet stuff, said Mr Simpson. 'Many areas, particularly the south, probably not seeing much more rain through to the end of the month,' he said. 'It will probably end up relatively cloudy for most, with the north-westerlies bringing moisture in off the North Atlantic, although sheltered eastern and southern counties will see more sunny spells coming through than the north-west.' This generally north-westerly system is expected to cool things down in much of Europe this week, with hotter weather lingering only in southern Spain and Portugal, he added.
Irish Daily Mirror
18-07-2025
- Climate
- Irish Daily Mirror
New Ireland weather maps turn dark blue as expert makes dire prediction
A week is long time where Irish weather is concerned. This time last week, most of us were basking in near 30°C heat, warm sunshine and cool sea breezes. And as beautiful the weather is in Ireland sometimes, it's almost never consistent. While it's currently still warm and muggy, the long hours of sunshine have all but disappeared and if Met Eireann are to be believed, it looks like things will get progressively worse over the coming days. New weather maps published by on Friday showed larges swathes of blue above Ireland on Saturday. The blue sections on the map denote rainfall. According to the charts, the heaviest of the rain is expected in the south of the country. One Ireland based weather expert, Alan O'Reilly, from the ever reliable Carlow Weather, made a dire prediction on X (formerly Twitter) on Friday morning. Alan warned against the possibility of "heavy rain" across parts of Ireland over the weekend but there was good news for people living in the north. "A cloudy Friday but only the odd shower and a few bright spells will develop later," posted Alan. He continued: "Saturday will see heavy rain move into the South around lunchtime and over 20mm is possible Saturday in Southwest. Northern areas will escape most of it though." Alan's warning comes only hours after he flagged how different weather models made alternative rainfall predictions for the weekend. "Lot of uncertainty around rainfall forecast over next few days, the ECMWF model that Met Éireann app/site uses for beyond next 2 days shows a lot of rain but GFS model that some other apps and sites use shows a lot less. So if you are seeing a difference that is why," said Alan. Saturday night: Showery outbreaks of rain will continue to slowly extend northwards over much of the country, reaching northern areas towards morning as drier and clearer conditions develop in the south. Lowest temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees in moderate cyclonic variable winds Sunday: A mix of sunny spells with showers or showery outbreaks of rain, heavy at times with possible thunderstorms, especially in the north. It will be driest generally in southern areas. Highest temperatures of 17 to 22 degrees with moderate cyclonic variable winds easing light westerly through the day Sunday night: Largely dry in the south at first with clear spells. Showery outbreaks of rain in the north, heavy at times with the continued possibility of thunderstorms will gradually extend southwards. Lowest temperatures of 8 to 13 degrees in mostly light northwesterly breezes Monday: Rather cloudy with further showers or showery outbreaks of rain, heaviest and most persistent in the south with further thunderstorms possible. Later in the day, showers will ease for many with some sunny spells breaking through. However, it will remain mostly cloudy and wet in the north. Highest temperatures of 16 to 21 degrees, coolest for Atlantic areas with moderate, occasionally fresh westerly winds developing. Tuesday: Frequent showers or longer spells of rain will continue to affect the north and northwest through the day. Further south there will be sunny spells and well scattered showers. Highest temperatures of 15 to 19 degrees generally in mostly moderate westerly winds. Further outlook: Current indications suggest the following days will be mixed but with more in the way of dry intervals. Subscribe to our newsletter for the latest news from the Irish Mirror direct to your inbox: Sign up here.
