Latest news with #IEA
Yahoo
3 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Global demand for natural gas projected to accelerate in 2026: IEA report
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released its latest quarterly Gas Market Report, forecasting a rebound in global natural gas demand growth by 2026. The report provides analyses the supply, demand and trade of natural gas for 2025 and 2026, indicating a temporary slowdown followed by an acceleration in demand. In the first half of 2025, market fundamentals remained tight due to reduced Russian piped gas exports to the EU, modest growth in liquefied natural gas (LNG) output and increased storage injection needs in Europe. Europe saw a 6.5% year-over-year increase in natural gas consumption, mainly supported by the electricity sector due to reduced power generation from wind and hydro sources. This trend, while not indicative of a long-term shift, underscores the crucial role of gas-fired power plants in maintaining electricity supply security, especially in markets with a high reliance on variable renewables. In contrast, China's natural gas demand fell by an estimated 1% year-over-year, with a significant drop of more than 20% in the country's LNG imports. Meanwhile, North America experienced an estimated 2.5% increase in natural gas demand compared to the same period in the previous year, with growth concentrated in the first quarter due to colder weather increasing gas usage in buildings. Amid these conditions and heightened macroeconomic uncertainty, global natural gas demand growth is expected to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to approximately 1.3% in 2025. The anticipated growth for 2025 is largely driven by North America and Europe, while the Asia-Pacific region is forecasted to experience its weakest annual rate of consumption growth since the energy crisis in 2022, largely due to sensitivity to higher prices. The IEA's report predicts a resurgence in global demand growth by 2026, with an expected acceleration to around 2% as a significant increase in LNG supply eases market conditions and stimulates stronger demand growth in Asia. IEA director of energy markets and security Keisuke Sadamori said: 'The backdrop for global gas markets is shifting as we enter the second half of this year and look towards 2026. The wave of LNG supply that is set to come online is poised to ease fundamentals and spur additional demand, especially in Asia. 'However, our latest forecast is subject to unusually high levels of uncertainty over the global macroeconomic outlook and the volatile geopolitical environment. The IEA continues to monitor gas markets closely and to work with stakeholders around the world to support security of supply.' In 2026, LNG supply is projected to increase by 7%, or 40 billion cubic metres, the largest increase since 2019, with new projects coming online in the US, Canada and Qatar. Furthermore, the IEA recently announced expectations for continued global oil demand growth until the end of this decade. The Oil 2025 Report indicates a sustained rise in oil consumption, influenced by factors such as lower gasoline prices and a slower transition to electric vehicles in the US. Global oil demand is projected to increase by 2.5 million barrels per day (mbbl/d) between 2024 and 2030, reaching a plateau of around 105.5mbbl/d by the decade's end. "Global demand for natural gas projected to accelerate in 2026: IEA report" was originally created and published by Offshore Technology, a GlobalData owned brand. The information on this site has been included in good faith for general informational purposes only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely, and we give no representation, warranty or guarantee, whether express or implied as to its accuracy or completeness. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content on our site. Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Zawya
10 hours ago
- Business
- Zawya
OPEC, IEA crude oil demand forecasts may be too cautious: Russell
(The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.) LAUNCESTON, Australia - A key difference in crude oil demand forecasts between this year and 2024 is that both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) are being far more cautious in their growth expectations. While the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the wider OPEC+ group publicly maintain that strong demand and a tight market justify increasing oil output, the numbers in their monthly report are more circumspect. It is largely the same for the IEA, which forecast in its July monthly report that global crude demand will grow by 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, the slowest pace since 2009. OPEC's July report is slightly more bullish, forecasting oil demand will increase by 1.29 million bpd in 2025, with 1.16 million bpd coming from countries outside the developed economies of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The forecasts from both the IEA and OPEC are now so cautious that they actually run the risk of being too pessimistic, especially in the top-importing region of Asia. This is in stark contrast to last year, when OPEC in particular was massively bullish in its demand forecasts even as Asia's crude oil imports were declining. There is, of course, a difference between demand forecasts and imports, but the level of seaborne imports is the key driver of crude prices, given it is this market, which accounts for about 40% of global daily oil demand, that sets the global prices. In its July 2024 monthly report OPEC forecast that Asia's non-OECD oil demand would rise by 1.34 million bpd in 2024, with China accounting for 760,000 bpd of this. However, Asia's crude imports actually declined in 2024, dropping by 370,000 bpd to 26.51 million bpd, according to data compiled by LSEG Oil Research. It was the first decline in Asia's oil imports since 2021, at a time when demand was hit by the lockdowns prompted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The gap between OPEC's bullish forecasts for much of 2024 and the reality of weak crude imports by Asia may have tempered the exporter group's forecasts for 2025. The question is whether they are now actually being too cautious. ASIA RECOVERY OPEC's July monthly report forecast that non-OECD Asia's oil demand will rise by 610,000 bpd in 2025, with China the main contributor at 210,000 and India, Asia's second-biggest crude importer, seeing an increase of 160,000 bpd. The IEA said in its July report that it expects China's total oil product demand to rise by 81,000 bpd in 2025, while India is expected to see a gain of 92,000 bpd. Total non-OECD Asia is forecast to see demand rise by 352,000 bpd. Both the OPEC and the IEA numbers seem modest, especially since Asia's crude imports actually saw relatively strong growth in the first half of 2025. Asia's imports in the first six months of the year were 27.25 million bpd, an increase of 510,000 bpd from the same period last year, according to calculations based on LSEG data. Imports increased in the second quarter, especially in China, as refiners took advantage of the weakening trend in oil prices that prevailed at the time cargoes were being arranged. It is likely that some of the increase in oil imports was used to build inventories, a process that may extend into the second half if oil prices remain soft as OPEC+ increases output amid the economic uncertainty created by U.S. President Donald Trump's ongoing global trade war. If there is one lesson to be learnt from the difference between this year's circumspect oil demand forecasts and last year's buoyant estimates, it is that price plays a far bigger role in demand, especially in Asia. Part of the reason Asia's crude imports fell short of forecasts in 2024 was because prices remained elevated for much of the year, reaching above $92 a barrel in April and only briefly dropping below $70 in September. This year, prices have been softer, with benchmark Brent futures peaking at just over $82 a barrel in January, and trading as low as $58.50 in May. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn and X. The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.
Yahoo
13 hours ago
- Automotive
- Yahoo
$18 Trillion or Total Nonsense? The Oil Demand Divide
The world needs $18.2 trillion in new oil and gas investments in the period until 2050 in order to secure a sufficient supply. This is what OPEC warned in the 2025 edition of its World Oil Outlook. Yet the International Energy Agency continues to believe oil demand growth is going to peak before 2030, suggesting there is no such need for investments. Are both talking up their respective book? According to OPEC, global oil demand will reach 123 million barrels daily in 2050. That would be up from a projected 105 million barrels daily this year, per OPEC, or 104.4 million barrels daily per the International Energy Agency. According to the IEA, oil demand is already plateauing in certain parts of the world, most notably in China, which has been the biggest driver of demand growth for about three decades now. Yet, electric car penetration and alternatives to diesel trucks are sapping this demand growth, on course to bring peak oil demand to China. India has emerged as the next China in terms of oil demand growth. Yet India is still a much smaller oil consumer than China, and it is unclear whether it will ever catch up to China in terms of absolute numbers. For context, China's average daily consumption rate in 2023 was 16.4 million bpd, compared with 5.3 million bpd for India, per data from the U.S. Energy Information is worth noting, too, that India is, like China, highly motivated to diversify away from oil because of its heavy reliance on imports and, consequently, international prices. That is why India has some of the most ambitious energy transition plans. It's about energy supply security as much as it is about emissions, if not more. The rate of global demand growth, then, remains rather uncertain, especially as Chinese EV makers take to international markets to sell their products at much lower prices than local manufacturers in, for example, Europe. Affordability is a big problem for most car buyers. Remove that problem, and EV penetration may well increase, affecting crude oil demand. So, it's time to turn to natural gas, which is also a hydrocarbon, which was once called a bridge fuel to a net-zero economy and then promptly demonized as even dirtier than coal and bundled with oil and coal as inadmissible in a low-carbon system of human civilization. Global electricity demand is set for a prolonged surge amid a heating up race in the IT sector to out-develop everyone else's artificial intelligence programs. AI is all the rage, and it consumes massive amounts of electricity. Despite hopes and dreams of this electricity being supplied from wind and solar installations, Big Tech is hunting deals for long-term electricity supply from nuclear and gas-fired generators. It would be a safe bet to make that they would not refuse coal generation, either, if it comes to that. So, oil demand growth may be slowing on a global level but, first, it has yet to peak and it might take longer than the IEA believes, and second, even a peak would not mean a consequent sharp drop. As for natural gas demand, that is going to grow and grow quite strongly—unless Big Tech suddenly decides to drop its AI race ambitions. Even in the absence of such ambitions, the world's electrification, per transition plans, would mean a steady increase in demand, especially for reliable, round-the-clock energy supply. As for OPEC and IEA, and talking up one's book, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright recently said the U.S. may pull out of the IEA due to its biased demand projections, which Wright called 'total nonsense'. By Irina Slav for More Top Reads From this article on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
15 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Wall Street Bets on U.S. Graphite as China Faces 160% Tariffs
Combined with existing tariffs, the 93.5% preliminary anti-dumping tariffs the U.S. Commerce Department announced this week on anode-grade graphite imported from China, targeting nearly $350 million in goods, promises to deal a major blow to battery producers. It would bring the tariffs to 160% on the notion that Chinese graphite is being sold in the U.S. below fair market value. And it gets worse than that for some Chinese producers. China's Huzhou Kaijin New Energy Technology and Shanghai Shaosheng Knitted Sweat, specifically, will face even higher duties exceeding 700%. The final determinations will be announced by December 5, 2025. The latest tariffs stem from a petition filed in December by the American Active Anode Material Producers for alleged violations of anti-dumping regulations, and the impact on the American EV battery supply chain will likely be significant. The United States imported ~180,000 metric tons of graphite in 2023, with two-thirds coming from China. According to a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the U.S. graphite supply chain remains highly vulnerable to supply disruptions, with the energy agency calling for urgent diversification efforts. The IEA has projected that graphite will remain the most widely used anode material in lithium-ion batteries over the next five years, with silicon expected to gradually gain ground after latest tariffs on graphite are expected to escalate tensions between the two countries, with the U.S. EV sector already feeling the heat after Beijing imposed export restrictions on certain critical minerals and battery technologies. In December 2024, China implemented export restrictions on several critical minerals, including gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite, primarily targeting the U.S. This action is seen as a response to increased tariffs and trade tensions with the US. The ban has significant implications for various industries globally, particularly those reliant on semiconductors, electronics, and renewable energy technologies. The cost implications of the tariffs will also be significant. According to Sam Adham, Head of Battery Materials at CRU Group, battery costs could increase by roughly $7/kWh once the tariffs take effect, effectively cutting ~20% of tax credits under the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). 'I think this is going to change behaviors and sourcing strategies of battery manufacturers in the United States,' Michael O'Kronley, chief executive officer at Novonix, told Bloomberg. 'The cost of graphite imported from China is going to go up. This ruling essentially is going to accelerate some of those discussions we have with manufacturers.' That's the reason why major EV players such as Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Panasonic have lobbied hard against the tariffs, citing an insufficient domestic supply chain to meet their quality and volume needs. Back in May, analysis from the International Council on Clean Transportation projected that U.S. battery production would decline by ~75% by 2030 to 250 GWh and EV sales by 40% under the Trump administration. According to the report, Trump's 'Big Beautiful Bill', which he signed into law earlier this month, could eliminate 130,000 potential jobs in the EV sector by 2030, the majority being in battery manufacturing. Previously, companies had announced a total of 128 U.S. facilities for battery manufacturing in the country thanks to generous credits under the 2022 IRA, with more than half yet to begin construction. Not surprisingly, TSLA took a hit, falling 3% after the tariffs were announced, while stocks of non-Chinese graphite producers soared: Shares of Canada's Northern Graphite Corporation (OTCQB:NGPHF) have doubled; Australian graphite miner, Syrah Resources Ltd. (OTCPK:SYAAF), have surged nearly 40%, Novonix Ltd. (OTCPK:NVNXF), an Australian-listed graphite producer with a plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee, jumped 21%, Canada's Nouveau Monde Graphite (NYSE:NMG) gained 23% while South Korea's POSCO Holdings Inc. (NYSE:PKX) gained 5%. Interestingly, Northern Graphite is one of the companies that lobbied for the tariffs on Chinese graphite. Northern Graphite engages in the development and production of graphite and other minerals in Canada and Namibia. Meanwhile, Wall Street is bullish about the U.S. graphite sector, saying the tariffs will encourage companies like Tesla to buy their graphite from U.S. producers. 'The U.S. is likely to be promoting the development of its own graphite industry by forcing domestic battery makers to switch suppliers,' said Eugene Hsiao, head of China equity strategy at Macquarie Capital, as reported by Bloomberg. 'Thus upstream suppliers of Chinese graphite anodes are more likely to be impacted.' That shift is expected to hit Chinese suppliers hard, particularly those who have long dominated the synthetic and natural graphite anode markets with low-cost exports. According to trade data, over 65% of U.S. graphite imports in 2023 originated from China, with companies like BTR New Energy, Shanghai Shanshan, and Huzhou Kaijin heavily exposed. With anti-dumping duties pushing effective tariff rates to as high as 160% (and over 700% for certain producers) the cost advantage that underpinned Chinese market share is rapidly eroding. Analysts expect many of these upstream firms to lose access to U.S. buyers unless they shift production offshore or absorb significant margin compression. Beijing's December 2024 export restrictions on graphite further complicate the picture, heightening uncertainty for Chinese exporters already navigating increased geopolitical and cost pressures. By Alex Kimani for More Top Reads From this article on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Bloomberg
a day ago
- Business
- Bloomberg
Global LNG Supply to Surge Most Since 2019 Next Year, IEA Says
By and Elena Mazneva Save Global supply of liquefied natural gas is set to surge the most since 2019 next year, primarily driven by production additions in North America, the International Energy Agency said. The increase in supply will accelerate to 7%, or 40 billion cubic meters a year in 2026, following a 5.5% expansion this year, the IEA said in its quarterly gas market report. A project in Qatar will also add to the growth.
