Latest news with #IISS
Mint
02-08-2025
- Politics
- Mint
US and Europe See Putin Reining In Russia's Unruly Hybrid War
US and European officials say they're seeing a decline in suspected Russian state-backed sabotage acts this year, evidence that President Vladimir Putin's security services may be reining in a hybrid warfare campaign that's been blamed for attacks across Europe. The drop-off in operations, which have involved Russian intelligence agents paying proxies to target civilian infrastructure and individuals, has been attributed to a range of factors, according to the officials, who asked not to be identified discussing sensitive issues. A leading explanation is that Moscow may be tightening its grip on attacks entrusted to unreliable local criminals, some of which had got out of control and risked a major miscalculation, the people said. There were 11 suspected Russia-backed hybrid incidents in Europe between January and May this year, including the attempted sabotage of fiber-optic cables and cell towers in Sweden, a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank concluded. That compares to a record high of more than 30 in the whole of 2024, according to the IISS's dataset of attacks on energy, communications, transport, military, water and undersea targets. Western officials believe one factor may be that Putin wanted to avoid further antagonizing Donald Trump in the early months of his second term as the US president sought to reach a rapid peace deal in Ukraine. Other possible reasons include potential recruits being deterred from involvement by high-profile trials of saboteurs caught by law enforcement, forcing Moscow to adapt its tactics, and Russia's GRU military intelligence service redirecting resources to Ukraine in recent months, they said. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov didn't respond to a request to comment. He has previously dismissed reports that Russia carries out sabotage in Europe as 'unfounded accusations.' US officials at the White House and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence didn't respond to requests for comment. Western officials say hybrid operations became a key part of Russia's playbook in the wake of its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, as the US and Europe sent Kyiv billions of dollars of weapons to defend itself. With much of Europe expelling Russian spies tied to its embassies in recent years, the people say that Moscow shifted to paying local proxies to carry out acts of violence, sabotage and arson in a campaign of disruption. The Russian campaign has been viewed as an effort to target western nations over their support of Ukraine. In contrast to his predecessor Joe Biden, Trump's military aid for Kyiv has been less reliable. The US recently agreed to continue sending weapons to Ukraine as long as European allies pay for them. The officials cautioned that the apparent waning of the campaign wasn't an indication that hybrid attacks had stopped completely or wouldn't escalate again in future. Sabotage plots remain higher in eastern European countries than in western nations, they said. The decline in incidents may have started in fall 2024 after high-level US officials reached out to their Russian counterparts to warn them against conducting future operations, people familiar with the conversations said, asking not to be identified because the issue is sensitive. The contacts took place amid American fears that Russia would put incendiary devices on cargo planes bound for the US, following a fire at a DHL facility in Britain in July 2024. Hybrid attacks are defined as hostile state-backed threats using both conventional and unconventional military methods, designed to destabilize opponents while blurring the threshold of a declared act of war. Three UK residents were convicted in July of carrying out a March 2024 Russia-backed arson attack on a London warehouse of a firm that supplied goods, including Starlink satellite equipment, to Ukraine. Ken McCallum, head of Britain's domestic security service MI5, said last year that Russia was on a mission to generate 'sustained mayhem on British and European streets.' In May, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk accused Russian intelligence services of orchestrating a 2024 arson attack that almost completely destroyed a shopping center in Warsaw. Other incidents attributed to Moscow include vandalism, the jamming of GPS signals and a foiled plot to assassinate the CEO of a German arms company. 'Russia is currently waging two wars,' Finnish President Alexander Stubb said last year. 'One is a kinetic, conventional war in Ukraine. The other is a hybrid war in Europe and the West with the aim of influencing the tone of public discourse or in some way shake our sense of security.' Russia may be struggling to maintain strict control over operations, with some cases of sabotage and arson going beyond the aims of those who commissioned them, some of the officials said. That may be due in part to the incompetence and unreliability of petty criminals hired to carry out the actions, they said. There's also evidence that some individuals, described as self-starters, have acted on their own initiative in hopes of impressing potential Russian paymasters, again risking erratic outcomes, the people said. In response, Russia has increasingly ordered local proxies to film themselves carrying out attacks to try to ensure plots unfold as planned, the people said. The diverting of Russian intelligence resources to Ukraine was revealing of the Kremlin's struggles to secure breakthroughs on the ground this year, despite Putin's public narrative that he's winning the war, the people said. It also suggested Russian resources are stretched. Changes to the law in countries like the UK have increased prison sentences for involvement in such incidents. That has raised the risk for potential recruits, who are often paid only a few hundred euros or pounds by Russian intelligence and have no diplomatic protection if they're caught. While plots have declined this year, European governments continue to record regular and serious cases of Russian cyber attacks and more traditional espionage attempts, some of the officials said. With assistance from Alberto Nardelli. This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.
The Standard
31-07-2025
- Politics
- The Standard
Malaysia PM says Trump to attend ASEAN summit in October
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim speaks at the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue security summit in Singapore, May 31, 2025. REUTERS/Edgar Su/File Photo
CNN
26-07-2025
- Politics
- CNN
Thai-Cambodian conflict pits a well-equipped US ally against a weaker adversary with strong China links
The deadly conflict on the Thai-Cambodian border pits a longtime United States ally with decades of experience against a relatively young armed force with close ties to China. Bangkok and Phnom Penh are fighting over territory disputed since colonial power France drew the border between them more than a century ago. Clashes continued into Saturday, according to officials on both sides. More than a dozen people have been reported killed, dozens wounded, and more than 150,000 civilians evacuated since fighting began on Thursday. Here's a look at the histories and capabilities of the two sides. Thailand's military dwarfs that of neighboring Cambodia, both in personnel and weaponry. Thailand's total of 361,000 active-duty personnel spread across all branches of the kingdom's military is three times Cambodia's. And those troops have at their disposal weaponry their Cambodian counterparts could only dream of. 'Thailand has a large, well-funded military and its air force is one of the best equipped and trained in Southeast Asia,' the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) wrote in its 'Military Balance 2025' look at the world's armed forces. Meanwhile, a 2024 ranking of the military capabilities of 27 regional nations by the Lowy Institute places Thailand at 14th, to Cambodia's 23rd. Such a disparity is perhaps to be expected, given Thailand has four times as many people as Cambodia, and a GDP more than 10 times larger. Unlike Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam, it escaped the ravages of the wars that engulfed the region in the second half of the 20th century, and the European colonialism that preceded them. Overall, with factors including military, economic, diplomatic and cultural power weighed in the Lowy Asia Power Index, Thailand is ranked 10th, considered a middle power, just behind Indonesia but ahead of countries including Malaysia and Vietnam. Lowy ranks Cambodia as a minor power in Asia, grouped with countries such as Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Laos. Thailand's military has long been a major player in the kingdom's politics. The country has for years been dominated by a conservative establishment comprising the military, the monarchy and influential elites. Generals have seized power in 20 coups since 1932, often toppling democratic governments, according to the CIA World Factbook, and the military portrays itself as the ultimate defender of the monarchy. Thailand is a United States treaty ally, a status dating back to the signing of the Southeast Asia Collective Defense Treaty, also known as the Manila Pact, in 1954, according to the US State Department. During the Vietnam War, Thailand hosted US Air Force assets at some air bases, including B-52 bombers, and tens of thousands Thai troops fought on the side of the US-backed South Vietnam against the communist North. Strong ties between Washington and Bangkok have endured. Thailand is classed as a major non-NATO ally by the US, giving it special benefits that have enabled it to enjoy access to decades of US support for its weapons programs. Thailand and the US Indo-Pacific Command co-host the annual Cobra Gold military exercise, which began in 1982 as joint drills with the US but has since added dozens of other participants. It's the longest-running international military exercise in the world, according to the US military. Besides Cobra Gold, Thai and US forces hold more than 60 exercises together, and more than 900 US aircraft and 40 Navy ships visit Thailand yearly, the US State Department says. Despite all that history with Washington, these days the Thai military tries to maintain a more neutral approach to military policy, increasing ties with China in the past decade. Not wanting to rely on any one country as its arms supplier, it has also developed a strong domestic weapons industry, with the help of countries such as Israel, Italy, Russia, South Korea and Sweden, the 'Military Balance' report says. Cambodia's military is young in comparison to Thailand's, established in 1993 after forces of the communist government were merged with two non-communist resistance armies, according to the IISS. 'Cambodia's most important international defense links are with China and Vietnam. Despite a traditional reliance on Russia for defense equipment, China has emerged as a key supplier,' the IISS says. Beijing has even developed a naval base in Cambodia. The Ream Naval Base, on the Gulf of Thailand, would be able to host Chinese aircraft carriers, according to international analysts. Cambodia and China completed the seventh edition of their annual Golden Dragon joint military exercise in May, which was touted as the largest ever and featured live-fire training scenarios. It's a relationship that's expected to reach 'a new level and achieve new development' this year, according to a February report on the People's Liberation Army's English-language website. 'China and Cambodia are iron-clad friends who… always support each other. The two militaries enjoy unbreakable relations and rock-solid brotherhood,' Chinese Defense Ministry spokesperson Senior Col. Wu Qian told a press conference in February, when asked about possible fissures in relations. Cambodia's military needs the support. 'Cambodia currently lacks the ability to design and manufacture modern equipment for its armed forces,' the IISS report says. Bolstered by years of US support, the Royal Thai Air Force is well equipped, with at least 11 modern Swedish Gripen fighter jets and dozens of older, US-made F-16 and F-5 jets, according to the IISS. Cambodia has no combat-capable air force to speak of. On the ground, Thailand has dozens of battle tanks, including 60 modern, Chinese-made VT-4 tanks, and hundreds of older, US-made tanks. Cambodia has about 200 old Chinese- and Soviet-made tanks, the 'Military Balance' shows. The Thai army boasts more than 600 artillery pieces, including at least 56 powerful 155mm weapons and more than 550 105mm towed guns. Cambodia has only a dozen 155mm guns with around 400 smaller towed artillery pieces, according to IISS figures. In the air, the army has US-made Cobra attack helicopters as well as 18 US Black Hawk transports. Cambodia has only a few dozen older Soviet and Chinese transport helicopters. Hawaii-based military analyst Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command's Joint Intelligence Center, said that while Thailand has the numerical and qualitative military advantage, Cambodia has at least one thing in its favor – the actual land along the disputed border. 'Terrain favors access from Cambodian territory to the disputed area,' Schuster told CNN. And with Cambodian forces allegedly laying landmines and booby traps in the disputed area, Thailand can be expected to rely on longer-range weaponry, he said. 'The Royal Thai Air Force is superior and their special forces are superior,' Schuster said. 'I think the Thais will prefer to emphasize air power and long-range firepower in the conflict.'
Economic Times
25-07-2025
- Business
- Economic Times
Thailand vs Cambodia: As border fight escalates, one army resembles a toy against the other's war machine; Military mismatch explained
Synopsis Recent armed clashes between Cambodia and Thailand, the worst in over a decade, have spotlighted their military disparity. Thailand, with a $5.73 billion defence budget and 360,000 personnel, dwarfs Cambodia's $1.3 billion budget and 124,300 troops. Thailand's air force boasts F-16 fighters, while Cambodia lacks fighter jets. Thailand vs Cambodia: One has fighter jets, the other doesn't, the military gap that could decide the clash Tensions that had been simmering for months between Cambodia and Thailand erupted into armed conflict on Thursday, the worst skirmish between the two Southeast Asian neighbours in over a decade. With even a Thai F-16 fighter jet reportedly deployed, the latest flare-up has reignited interest in how the two countries compare a breakdown of the military capabilities of Cambodia and Thailand, based on data from the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Cambodia maintains a defence budget of $1.3 billion and fields 124,300 active personnel. The Royal Cambodian Armed Forces, formed in 1993 through a merger of former Communist and resistance groups, rely heavily on ground troops. The Cambodian army consists of around 75,000 soldiers, supported by 200+ battle tanks and 480 artillery contrast, Thailand boasts a significantly larger and better-funded force. With a 2024 defence budget of $5.73 billion and over 360,000 active personnel, Thailand's military dwarfs its neighbour's. The Thai army alone has 245,000 personnel, including 115,000 conscripts, and is equipped with 400 tanks, 1,200+ armoured personnel carriers, and 2,600 artillery air force is relatively modest, just 1,500 personnel, 10 transport planes, and 10 helicopters. It doesn't operate any fighter jets. The most notable aircraft in its fleet include 16 multi-role helicopters, with six Soviet-era Mi-17s and 10 Chinese Z-9s. On the other hand, Thailand's air force is among the best equipped in the region. With 46,000 personnel, it commands 112 combat-capable aircraft, including 28 F-16 Fighting Falcons and 11 Swedish Gripens. Its arsenal also includes surveillance drones and a fleet of transport and attack helicopters, including several U.S.-made Black navy is modest, with 2,800 personnel (including 1,500 naval infantry), 13 patrol/coastal vessels, and a single amphibious landing navy is a maritime heavyweight by comparison. With nearly 70,000 personnel, it includes naval aviation, coastal defence units, marines, and conscripts. Its fleet features: 1 aircraft carrier 7 frigates 68 patrol and coastal vessels Amphibious ships and landing craft capable of transporting hundreds of troops Its marine corps alone has 23,000 troops, supported by armoured vehicles and aviation assets such as helicopters and UAVs. While Cambodia has made steady investments in its armed forces, it remains significantly outmatched by Thailand in terms of manpower, equipment, and budget. Thailand's position as a major non-NATO ally of the United States ensures access to high-end military hardware and training. Inputs from Reuters
Int'l Business Times
25-07-2025
- Politics
- Int'l Business Times
African Armies Turn To Drones With Devastating Civilian Impact
The Easter period usually offers a rare respite in Gedeb, in Ethiopia's deeply troubled north, but on April 17 death rained from the skies in this sleepy town caught up in a war between rebels and the army. On this important holiday for Ethiopian Orthodox and Protestant Christians, many families had gathered in the morning to repair the local primary school. But out of the blue, shortly before 11:00 am (1400 GMT), "a drone fired on the crowd and pulverised many people right in front of my eyes", a resident told AFP. Ethiopia and many other African nations are increasingly turning to drones as a low-cost means of waging war, often with mixed military results but devastating consequences for civilian populations. Last year, Ethiopia carried out a total of 54 drone strikes, compared to 62 attacks in Mali, 82 in Burkina Faso and 266 in Sudan, according to data collected by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), a US-based monitor. According to one of two Gedeb residents contacted by AFP, the strike killed "at least" 50 people, and according to the second, more than 100 -- a figure corroborated by several local media outlets. It is one of the deadliest in a series of drone attacks since the conflict began in August 2023, pitting the Ethiopian army against the Fano, the traditional "self-defence" militias of the Amhara ethnic group. A shoe seller at the scene, whose nephew was killed instantly, also blamed an armed drone that continued to "hover in the air" some 20 minutes after the strike. "The sight was horrific: there were heads, torsos and limbs flying everywhere and seriously injured people screaming in pain," he recalled. Ethiopian authorities have not released any information about this attack in Amhara, where the security situation makes some areas very difficult to access and communications are subject to significant restrictions. The Ethiopian army's use of drones, which began during the bloody Tigray War (2020-2022), has since spread to the Amhara and Oromia regions amid multiple insurgencies. In the Amhara region alone, now the hardest-hit, at least 669 people have been killed in more than 70 drone strikes since 2023, according to ACLED data analysed by AFP. Remotely piloted aircraft used for reconnaissance and strikes -- low-cost technologies now ubiquitous in current conflicts and particularly in Ukraine -- are generating massive interest in Africa. Some 30 African governments have acquired drones, according to data cross-referenced by AFP from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) "Military Balance" and the Center for a New American Security's Drone Proliferation Dataset. For decades, wars in Africa had been fought on land, conducted primarily by light and mobile infantry units. "Drones offer sub-Saharan African militaries more affordable and flexible access to air power, which has been out of reach until now due to its cost and operational complexity," said Djenabou Cisse, a west African security specialist at the Foundation for Strategic Research. Countries like China, Turkey and Iran have the advantage of selling drones "without attaching any political conditionality related to respect for human rights", she added. Among African military commands, the most popular is undoubtedly the Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drone, which, along with its big brother, the Akinci, has dethroned the Chinese Wing Loong in recent years. The TB2 made a notable appearance in 2019 in Libya, the first African theatre of drone warfare, between the Ankara-backed Government of National Accord and its eastern rival, Marshal Haftar, equipped with Chinese weapons supplied by the United Arab Emirates. The following year, its deployment in the Karabakh region during the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and then in Ukraine starting in 2022, boosted its popularity. Orders soared and waiting lists grew. While contract details are kept secret, experts consulted by AFP estimate that a "system" of three drones costs nearly $6 million -- significantly less than the several tens of millions for a fighter jet or combat helicopter. This offsets its rather average performance, with a range limited to 150 kilometres (75 miles). The TB2 is produced by private company Baykar, headed by the son-in-law of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. It "is now an integral part of Turkey's foreign policy, whose strategy is to export its military products worldwide," said Batu Coskun, a researcher at the Sediq Institute in Tripoli. The growing footprint of Turkish drones in Africa is partly due to the fact that unlike the West, Ankara is free from the cumbersome export control procedures for military equipment. "It's essentially at the president's discretion," he said. After severing ties with former colonial ruler France, the military regimes of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have turned to Turkish drones to attack jihadist fighters as well as separatists. In December last year, the Malian army eliminated a leader and several members of the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), a pro-independence coalition, in a drone attack. In November 2023, drones played a decisive role in the recapture of the northern Malian city of Kidal from predominantly Tuareg rebels. A senior Malian officer praised the "discretion" of Turkish military cooperation. "When you pay for military equipment in the West, it has to go through political agreements, negotiations," he said, speaking on condition of anonymity. "With Turkey, we have a speed that we don't have elsewhere, not even in Russia or China," two countries that also supply military equipment, he added. According to a young Malian surveillance drone pilot, who also wished to remain anonymous, the Turkish aircraft "are easy to pilot, which means we don't need a long training period". In Chad, four Turkish drones have replaced French fighter jets at the forward bases they occupied until N'Djamena ended its military cooperation agreements with France at the end of 2024. The latter had repeatedly provided air support to help the Chadian government halt the advance of rebels threatening the capital. The capital N'Djamena is equipped with only five Russian Sukhoi aircraft and as many ageing Mi-24 helicopters. Contrary to Franco-Chadian relations, "there is no military cooperation agreement (between N'Djamena and Ankara) but a trade agreement that allows us to acquire military equipment", a Chadian officer told AFP. Turks are present to provide technical assistance and the former French bases are "entirely in the hands of the Chadian military", the same source added. This flexible cooperation on drones clearly illustrates the desire of some African leaders to "assert their sovereignty and greater strategic autonomy". said researcher Djenabou Cisse. On the ground, however, the tactical and strategic gains from the use of drones do not always materialise, several experts said. "Drones alone cannot defeat an adversary," Cisse said, adding: "We saw this in Libya, where both sides had sophisticated drones, and more recently in Sudan, where each side uses drones, but with very unequal capabilities." "Not only have these countries failed to fully stabilise but conflicts have often become entrenched or even escalated," the researcher added. Drones are proving especially decisive in open terrain, when the enemy is unable to disperse and hide as is the case with jihadists in the Sahel, according to a detailed study by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). In Ethiopia, they helped turn the tide of the conflict in Tigray at a key moment, giving a decisive advantage to federal forces without, however, securing a definitive victory. In the summer of 2021, a large column of Tigray rebel forces, which reached within 200 kilometres of Addis Ababa and threatened to seize the capital, was stopped by the arsenal of drones deployed by the government. Analysis of satellite images by Dutch peace organisation PAX at several Ethiopian air bases confirmed the presence of TB2s and, more recently, the Akinci, as well as Chinese Wing Loongs and Iranian Mohajer-6s. These drones have "significantly increased the Ethiopian army's intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities, as they can prowl for nearly 24 hours, track enemy movements, identify their positions, provide targeting information or directly strike targets," Wim Zwijnenburg, a drone specialist for PAX, told AFP. While the fighting subsequently focused primarily on Tigray, it continued into 2022 and high tensions remain in the region despite the conclusion of a fragile peace agreement, while other hotbeds of violent insurrection have spread to Amhara and Oromia. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, winner of the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize for his peace efforts with neighbouring Eritrea, is now regularly accused of indiscriminate abuses against the population. "The drones continued to target civilians despite the presence of sophisticated sensor systems, high-definition cameras and night vision," supposedly allowing for better threat identification, said Zwijnenburg, deploring "a lack of operator training or, in the worst case, a deliberate decision". In Gedeb, the small Amhara town targeted during Passover, residents contacted by AFP said there had been no fighting in the area in the run-up to the attack. They live in constant fear now. "We are ready to flee to the bush at any moment in the event of a sudden drone strike," said one of them. "We live in extreme fear." This handout satellite photograph obtained from Planet Labs PBC on July 17, 2025, shows aircraft and a drone - believed to be a Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 - on the tarmac of the Bahir Dar airbase in Amhara, Ethiopia on April 28, 2025 AFP A map of Africa showing drone strikes by locality since January 1, 2022, according to data from NGO Acled AFP A Turkish drone flies over in Kahramankazan, some 40 kilometers (25 miles) north of Ankara on October 23, 2024 AFP Infographic with a map of Africa showing the types of drones owned by country, according to data from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) and the Center for a New American Security (CNAS) AFP Turkish-made Bayraktar drones of the Albanian army are displayed at a NATO-backed airbase in Albania on March 4, 2024 AFP This handout satellite image taken on December 9, 2021 by Planet Labs PBC shows what Dutch peace organisation PAX says is a Turkish Bayrakter TB-2 drone parked outside a hangar at the northern part of Hara Meda air base in Bishoftu, Ethiopia AFP
