Are Investors Undervaluing Galliford Try Holdings plc (LON:GFRD) By 40%?

Yahoo

23-05-2025

Galliford Try Holdings' estimated fair value is UK£6.96 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Current share price of UK£4.16 suggests Galliford Try Holdings is potentially 40% undervalued
Our fair value estimate is 46% higher than Galliford Try Holdings' analyst price target of UK£4.76
Does the May share price for Galliford Try Holdings plc (LON:GFRD) reflect what it's really worth? Today, we will estimate the stock's intrinsic value by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
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We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Levered FCF (£, Millions)
UK£33.4m
UK£38.1m
UK£40.2m
UK£41.3m
UK£42.4m
UK£43.4m
UK£44.5m
UK£45.7m
UK£46.8m
UK£48.0m
Growth Rate Estimate Source
Analyst x5
Analyst x5
Analyst x5
Est @ 2.59%
Est @ 2.57%
Est @ 2.56%
Est @ 2.56%
Est @ 2.55%
Est @ 2.55%
Est @ 2.55%
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 8.1%
UK£30.9
UK£32.6
UK£31.8
UK£30.2
UK£28.6
UK£27.2
UK£25.8
UK£24.4
UK£23.2
UK£22.0
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£277m
We now need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all the future cash flows after this ten year period. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.5%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 8.1%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2034 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£48m× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (8.1%– 2.5%) = UK£881m
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= UK£881m÷ ( 1 + 8.1%)10= UK£403m
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is UK£680m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of UK£4.2, the company appears quite undervalued at a 40% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Galliford Try Holdings as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.1%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.090. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Check out our latest analysis for Galliford Try Holdings
Strength
Earnings growth over the past year exceeded the industry.
Currently debt free.
Dividends are covered by earnings and cash flows.
Weakness
Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Construction market.
Opportunity
Trading below our estimate of fair value by more than 20%.
Threat
Annual earnings are forecast to decline for the next 3 years.
Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. What is the reason for the share price sitting below the intrinsic value? For Galliford Try Holdings, we've put together three relevant items you should further examine:
Risks: You should be aware of the 2 warning signs for Galliford Try Holdings (1 is a bit unpleasant!) we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
Future Earnings: How does GFRD's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the LSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.