Rising costs, muted demand to weigh on FMCG margins in Q1
Live Events
(You can now subscribe to our
(You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel
ET Intelligence Group: Select companies in the fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector are expected to show marginal pickup in sales volume for the June quarter. Revenue growth will likely be driven by higher prices for some firms while others may report pressure due to weak demand. Margins may contract due to higher material costs and increased advertising spend for some companies. Marico and Tata Consumer Products are top picks of most analysts.The sector major, Hindustan Unilever 's volume growth is expected to revive to 3% for the June 2025 quarter given gradual recovery in demand. After clocking a 4% improvement in the year-ago quarter, volume growth fell in each of the following quarters to 2% in the March 2025 quarter. Operating profit may remain flat while margins are likely to contract by 1% due to rise in advertising and promotion costs to boost volumes.The cigarettes-to-paperboards maker, ITC is expected to sustain the year-on-year cigarette volume growth at the March quarter level of 5%. Paperboard growth is expected to remain weak due to sluggish export markets, weaker realisations and cheap Chinese supplies. Margins are expected to decline in both the categories due to surge in raw material costs. On the other hand, agri-business growth is expected to be in double-digit at around 10%. Nestle India is likely to deliver a 6% year-on-year growth in revenue, supported by about 6.5-7% rise in sales volume and price increase. However, inflation in coffee, cocoa, milk and edible oils could add pressure on the margin front. Varun Beverages (VBL), a major bottler of PepsiCo, may report flat revenue due to decline in volumes amid early onset of the monsoon season. According to Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOFSL), the operating margin before depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda margin) may contract by 150 basis points. Britannia Industries is likely to clock volume growth of 3-4% while price increase implemented in the June 2025 quarter may drive revenue up by 9%. High agricultural commodity costs are likely to weigh on margins, though profit may rise by around 9% due to higher product prices.Revenue of Tata Consumer Products is expected to rise 11%, supported by growth in the domestic tea business. Salt segment is also expected to be driven by higher volumes and price increase. Marico's revenue may jump around 22% driven by 8-9% volume growth in the domestic market and higher product prices. On the contrary, margins are expected to contract by 330 bps points due to copra inflation and higher base.FMCG stocks outperformed the frontline indices in the past month where the Nifty FMCG index jumped 3.6% compared with around 1% rise in the benchmark Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex indices.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Time of India
10 minutes ago
- Time of India
Trump deals bring some clarity for world's manufacturing base
Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads After months of uncertainty, President Donald Trump 's latest tariff deals are providing clarity on the broad contours of a new trade landscape for the world's biggest manufacturing on Tuesday announced a deal with Japan that sets tariffs on the nation's imports at 15%, including for autos — by far the biggest component of the trade deficit between the countries.A separate agreement with the Philippines set a 19% rate, the same level as Indonesia agreed and a percentage point below Vietnam's 20% baseline level, signaling that the bulk of Southeast Asia is likely to get a similar rate.'We live in a new normal where 10% is the new zero and so 15% and 20% doesn't seem so bad if everyone else got it,' said Trinh Nguyen, senior economist for emerging Asia at Natixis. At a 15%-20% tariff level, it's still profitable for US companies to import from abroad rather than produce similar goods at home, she US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he'll meet his Chinese counterparts in Stockholm next week for their third round of talks aimed at extending a tariff truce and widening the discussions. That suggests a continuing stabilization in ties between the world's two largest economies after the US recently eased chip curbs and China resumed rare earths exports.'We're getting along with China very well,' Trump told reporters on Tuesday. 'We have a very good relationship.'Throw it all together and a level of predictability is finally emerging after six months of tariff threats that had at one point jacked up tariff levels to 145% on China and near 50% on some smaller Asian exporters. Investors cheered the moves, with Asian shares rising the most in a month and contracts for the S&P 500 up 0.2%. The Nikkei-225 index in Japan jumped 3.2%, with Toyota Motor Corp. and other carmakers leading the gains.'What's been interesting to me is that equity markets still have been fairly rosy about the changes,' Albert Park, chief economist at the Asian Development Bank, said in a Bloomberg Television interview. 'I'm not sure they've priced in fully all of the effects that are likely to occur from the disruption of higher tariff rates.'Back in April, Trump hit the pause button on the steepest levies after a rare combination of weakening US stocks, bonds and the dollar showed investors were unnerved by his protectionist salvos. That bought time for policymakers from Tokyo, Manila and across the globe to negotiate more palatable the latest deals bring some relief, key questions remain. The Trump administration is still considering a range of sectoral tariffs on goods like semiconductors and pharmaceuticals that will be critical for Asian economies including Taiwan and India — both of which have yet to announce tariff agreements with the Korea is also more exposed to sectoral tariffs, even though the Japan deal provides a potential template for new President Lee Jae Trump moves quickly on talks with countries accounting for the bulk of the US trade deficit, he has said he may hit around 150 smaller countries with a blanket rate of between 10% and 15%.With some certainty on tariff levels now emerging, businesses with complex supply chains across Asia and still reliant of the US consumer can start to game out how they'll shift operations to minimize the hit to like the first trade war in 2018, the latest tariff announcements are likely to spur companies to increasingly shift production outside of China. The average tariff rate on the world's second-largest economy remains the highest in the region, and continued White House pressure on the nation's technology and trade ambitions means companies may find more stability and industry groups have been flagging for months that uncertainty is worse than tariffs for investment. The manufacturing sector across the ASEAN region saw the most notable weakening since August 2021, according to S&P PMI, led by a sharper decrease in new orders, major job cuts and weaker purchasing front-loading of shipments from Asia to the US to get ahead of the incoming levies will likely slow once the new rates kick in. While there's relief that tariff rates for Southeast Asian economies and 15% for Japan are lower than some of Trump's earlier threats, the reality is that they're far higher than they were before he took latest deals 'continue the trend of tariff rates gravitating towards the 15-20% range that President Trump recently indicated to be his preferred level for the blanket rate instead of 10% currently,' Barclays Plc analysts including Brian Tan wrote in a note. That skews risks to GDP growth forecasts for Asia 'to the downside,' they US consumers who have so far been spared the tariff ticket shock, economists warn there's likely to be some pass through in the months ahead. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists now expect the US baseline 'reciprocal' tariff rate will rise from 10% to 15% — an outcome that threatens to fuel inflation and weigh on economic Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has argued he wants to see where tariffs land and how they filter through the economy before cutting interest rates — much to the annoyance of now, the US president is hailing a win on trade, and investors seem overall relieved.'I just signed the largest trade deal in history — I think maybe the largest deal in history — with Japan,' Trump said at an event at the White House on Tuesday after announcing the deal on social media. 'It's a great deal for everybody.'
The Print
10 minutes ago
- The Print
China's Brahmaputra dam is also a military asset. It raises alarm for India
In contemporary geopolitics, infrastructure has become a strategic language of its own, one that Beijing is speaking fluently. Beyond the spectacle of scale, the Chinese online discourse quickly turned the project into a symbol of strategic ascendancy. India, the downstream neighbour, is cast as anxious and reactive . China, in contrast, is portrayed as visionary and unyielding—a master of its geography and architect of a new regional order. Chinese Premier Li Qiang, on 19 July, presided over the groundbreaking of what is set to become the world's largest hydropower dam , on the so-called 'Yarlung Zangbo', as China refers to the Brahmaputra River. Within hours, Chinese online platforms erupted in celebration. A Weibo hashtag marking the occasion—#Construction begins on lower Yarlung Zangbo Hydropower Project—amassed over 73 million views. Engineering feat or strategic signal? The Medog Hydropower Station is projected to cost $167 billion and boasts a planned capacity of 70 to 81 million kilowatts, roughly triple that of the Three Gorges Dam. Once completed, it is expected to generate 300 billion kilowatt-hours annually. The project will take a decade to build, but its signalling to the region, especially India, is immediate. Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of the Global Times, a daily Chinese tabloid, criticised Western media for focusing on India's ecological and geopolitical concerns while ignoring what he called an 'engineering miracle'. For Hu, the dam is not just about electricity; it is also a declaration of China's ability to tame the Himalayas and reshape geography. One Chinese commentator claimed that India's objections stem not from technical concerns, but from its deeply entrenched 'security-first' mindset. New Delhi, the commentator argued, has long prioritised control over collaboration, building its own dams while accusing others of weaponising water. 'India's alarmism,' another wrote, 'comes from its own guilty conscience.' China's dual narrative Officially, Beijing is presenting the dam as a developmental initiative, aimed at energy security, poverty alleviation, regional integration, and transforming Nyingchi into the 'Little Sichuan' or 'Jiangnan of Tibet.' Talk of water weaponisation is being brushed aside as paranoia. Commentators invoke 'non-zero-sum' logic and portray China as a responsible upstream actor. But unofficial voices tell a different story. 'India, which tries to control Pakistan with water cuts, now fears China might do the same,' one commentator quipped. Victor Gao, vice president of the Beijing-based Center for China and Globalization, was even more blunt: 'If India uses rivers as leverage against Pakistan, it should be prepared for reciprocity.' These comparisons are not new. Over a decade ago, Ye Hailin, director of Asian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, argued that if India expects restraint from China as an upstream power, it should accept the same standard when Pakistan, downstream of India, makes similar demands. A more recent commentary on Baidu put it less diplomatically: 'Just a month ago, before the official exchange of fire between India and Pakistan, India took the initiative, cutting off water at will, then releasing it, showing little regard for the lives of Pakistani civilians. Faced with a neighbour like India, we [China] must abandon any moral restraint. We should move at our own pace, neither seeking to dominate nor to appease. Stand firm, when necessary, fight when required. Otherwise, we risk being the ones who suffer.' Also read: India's 'triple anxiety'—What Chinese media sees in Jaishankar's Beijing visit Water, border, and politics of control On Chinese social media, the discussion turned openly strategic. One user noted a road built inside the dam tunnels, ostensibly for maintenance, that leads directly to Arunachal Pradesh. 'In peacetime, it is for power,' the user wrote. 'In wartime? I do not need to spell it out.' This is infrastructure envisioned not just as an economic backbone, but as a military asset, both shield and sword. This strategic undertone also helps explain Beijing's long-standing refusal to enter a hydrological data-sharing agreement with India. As Hu Suisheng, senior fellow at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, once noted, such cooperation would implicitly acknowledge India's border position—especially over Arunachal Pradesh, which China disputes. Despite the rhetoric of regional uplift and mutual benefit, India's concerns have been routinely dismissed by the Chinese official narrative and online discourse. There has been no consultation, only unilateral action over a transboundary river system that feeds millions downstream. Beneath China's rhetoric of development flows a deeper current, shaped by quiet force and strategic intent. This is not merely the redirection of water but the rewriting of the regional order through determination and power. For New Delhi, this dam raises alarm. For Beijing, this is advantageous on multiple fronts. Cooperation may be the language used, but the headwaters of the Brahmaputra speak of dominance and unilateral action, not dialogue or mutual benefit. Sana Hashmi is a fellow at the Taiwan-Asia Exchange Foundation. She tweets @sanahashmi1. Views are personal. (Edited by Ratan Priya)
&w=3840&q=100)
Business Standard
10 minutes ago
- Business Standard
Aaron Industries jumps 7% as board approves bonus, record date for dividend
National Stock Exchange (NSE) listed Aaron Industries shares jumped 6.9 per cent, logging an intraday high at ₹424.95 per share. The stock gained after the company announced bonus shares in the proportion of 1:1 and fixed record date for final dividend. At 1:49 PM, Aaron Industries share price was trading 3.98 per cent higher at ₹413.05 per share on BSE. In comparison, the BSE Sensex rose 0.5 per cent to 82,598.03. The market capitalisation of the company stood at ₹433.28 crore. The 52-week high of the company stood at ₹430 per share, and the 52-week low was at ₹251.05. CATCH STOCK MARKET UPDATES TODAY LIVE Aaron Industries' bonus issue and other details The industrial products company's board has considered and recommended the issue of bonus shares in the proportion of 1:1 which means one bonus share of ₹10 each will be received for every existing share. "This is to inform you that the Board of Directors of the Company at their Meeting held on Wednesday, July 23, 2025, has considered and recommended the issue of Bonus Shares in the proportion of 1:1, i.e. 1 (One) new fully paid-up Bonus Equity Shares of ₹10/- (Rupees Ten only) each for every 1 (One) existing fully paid-up Equity Shares of ₹10/- (Rupees Ten only) each held by the eligible Members as on the Record Date, subject to the approval of Shareholders at the ensuing 12th Annual General Meeting of the Company scheduled to be held on Tuesday, August 19, 2025," the filing read. The board also approved the record date for the final dividend as Friday, August 8, 2025. In May 2025, Aaron's board had approved and recommended a final dividend at the rate of 12 per cent i.e. ₹1.2 per share of the face value of ₹10/- each. The dividend will be received if approved by the shareholders at the ensuing Annual General Meeting of the company. The 12th Annual General Meeting will be called and convened on Tuesday, August 19, 2025. The board also approved increasing the authorised share capital of the company from ₹11 crore, divided into 1,10,00,000 shares of ₹10 each to ₹21 crore, divided into 2,10,00,000 shares of ₹10.
