&w=3840&q=100)
Explained: China's mega dam on Brahmaputra and India's downstream risks
When completed, which is projected for the 2030s, it will connect to China's power grid as the river flows south to Arunachal Pradesh and through India and Bangladesh as the Brahmaputra.
Why is China building a dam near Arunachal Pradesh?
The Chinese government describes the project as an integral part of its clean energy and climate objectives. The project is incorporated in China's 14th Five-Year Plan and long-term development plans up to 2035. The dam project aims to produce electricity, which would be equivalent to the entire United Kingdom's needs in one year, according to the Reuters report. Beyond renewable energy targets, the project may also serve flood-control functions and act as a stimulus for domestic investment, infrastructure growth, and jobs.
What will be the benefits for China?
The expected scale of power generation is massive. The combined annual output is projected at 300 billion kWh, far surpassing the Three Gorges Dam, and covering roughly the yearly electricity consumption of the UK.
With an estimated cost between $167 billion and $170 billion (1.2 trillion yuan), the project is expected to boost Chinese construction, equipment, and bond markets. Furthermore, the project is expected to contribute to China's carbon-cutting goals and may provide downstream flood mitigation. Meanwhile, control over a major tributary will provide China the geopolitical leverage and potential influence over transboundary water flows.
Why is India worried?
India is worried that China's upstream control of the Brahmaputra's waters could allow China to control water levels as a tactical weapon of sorts. Pema Khandu, the Chief Minister of Arunachal, called the dam a "ticking water bomb" and a threat to life. His concerns stem from Beijing not having signed up to any international river-sharing agreements and not knowing what its future plans might be.
The risks downstream include reduced flow (the sediment captured is critically important to irrigation), problems with the ecosystem, and more extreme dry seasons. There are also significant risks, including floods, from sudden discharge of water in the case of planned storage (for electricity generation, for example) or accidents (including maintenance issues and emergencies). All of which is concerning for India's north-east.
Additionally, the project stretches across a seismically active Himalayan gorge — which heightens landslide, flood, and ecological hazard, potentially devastating downstream regions.
Does it challenge India's geopolitical position?
This project is near a contested territory in Arunachal Pradesh. India is concerned that China's unilateral actions could redefine control over shared water resources and geopolitical influence. Flow reduction could impair drinking water, crop yields, and riverine ecosystems in Assam and beyond. With increased dependence on a dam controlled by China, India may find itself politically constrained. Additionally, the project risks militarising water policy in an already fragile Himalayan border context.
How is India responding to China's dam construction?
To counter China's influence, India is fast-tracking hydropower in Arunachal. Plans include the 11,000 MW Upper-Siang Multipurpose Project (SUMP) at a cost of around Rs 1.5 trillion, with a reservoir capacity of 9.2 billion cubic metres, likely to strengthen India's water rights under international norms.
Additional projects like Subansiri Lower (2,000 MW) and Dibang (2,880 MW, tallest concrete gravity dam) are under various stages of planning and construction.
India relies on the 2006 Expert-Level Mechanism, through which China shares real-time flood-season hydrological data for Brahmaputra and Sutlej.
Meanwhile, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has publicly stated that despite concerns, there's no immediate threat—citing the river's multiple sources, including Bhutan and local rainfall.
Conversely, organisations in Arunachal like SIFF and ex-CM Nabam Tuki, along with student bodies in Assam, have pressed for thorough impact reviews, transparency, and the declaration of Assam's flood issues as a national emergency.
How has the world responded to China's action?
Bangladesh has raised questions about a reduction in water supply and flow variability. However, China states the project is expected to have no negative effects on countries downstream.
Meanwhile, environmental organisations have raised concerns regarding the dam's potential to influence a sensitive ecological zone, highlighting the potential for earthquakes and other natural disasters, given its location in the Himalayas.
While India and Bangladesh have formally raised the issue with China, there has been little overt international censure or coordinated global diplomatic response so far. The project is seen as an extension of China's broader infrastructure and strategic ambitions rather than a direct provocation warranting sanctions or collective action.
Moreover, the lack of enforceable worldwide agreements on rivers permits China to move ahead without any serious accountability from the rest of the world.
For India, this is a multi-faceted challenge. The downstream risks for India include everything from water shortages to environmental damage, along with border tensions. As a response, India is increasing hydropower and flood control investment plans, while also utilising diplomatic engagement, data-sharing, and political mobilisation as diverse strategies to stake its own claims.

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
&w=3840&q=100)

First Post
29 minutes ago
- First Post
Cambodia, Thailand agree to ceasefire talks following Trump's warning
US President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that Cambodian and Thai leaders have agreed to meet immediately to negotiate a ceasefire, following three days of intense border fighting. read more A Cambodian military personnel stands on a BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launcher, around 40 km (24 miles) from the disputed Ta Moan Thom temple, after Thailand and Cambodia exchanged heavy artillery on Friday. Reuters US President Donald Trump said on Saturday that Cambodian and Thai leaders had agreed to meet immediately to work out a cease-fire, as he sought to broker peace after three days of fighting along their border. During a visit to Scotland, Trump stated on social media that he had spoken with Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and Thailand's acting prime minister, Phumtham Wechayachai, and warned them that if the border conflict continued, he would not make trade deals with either of the Southeast Asian governments. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'Both Parties are looking for an immediate Ceasefire and Peace,' Trump wrote as he gave a blow-by-blow account of his diplomatic efforts. Before Trump spoke to the two leaders, clashes on the Thai-Cambodian border persisted into a third day and new flashpoints emerged on Saturday as both sides said they had acted in self-defense in the border dispute and called on the other to cease fighting and start negotiations. More than 30 people have been killed and more than 130,000 people displaced in the worst fighting between the Southeast Asian neighbours in 13 years. There were clashes early on Saturday, both sides said, in the neighbouring Thai coastal province of Trat and Cambodia's Pursat Province, a new front more than 100 km (60 miles) from other conflict points along the long-contested border. The two countries have faced off since the killing of a Cambodian soldier late in May during a brief skirmish. Troops on both sides of the border were reinforced amid a full-blown diplomatic crisis that brought Thailand's fragile coalition government to the brink of collapse. As of Saturday, Thailand said seven soldiers and 13 civilians had been killed in the clashes, while in Cambodia five soldiers and eight civilians had been killed, said Defense Ministry spokesperson Maly Socheata. Following calls for restraint on both sides from Trump's senior aides, he became directly involved on Saturday, speaking to each leader and saying he relayed messages back and forth. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'They have agreed to immediately meet and quickly work out a Ceasefire and, ultimately, PEACE!,' Trump wrote, saying both countries wanted to get back to the 'Trading Table.' He has sought to reach separate deals with dozens of countries in response to his announcement of wide-ranging tariffs on imports to the U.S. 'When all is done, and Peace is at hand, I look forward to concluding our Trading Agreements with both!' Trump said. He offered no details on the ceasefire negotiations he said Thailand and Cambodia had agreed to hold. The Thai and Cambodian embassies in Washington did not immediately respond to requests for comment. In the Thai border province of Sisaket, a university compound has been converted into temporary accommodation, where a volunteer said more than 5,000 people were staying. Samrong Khamduang said she left her farm, about 10 km from the border, when fighting broke out on Thursday. The 51-year-old's husband stayed behind to look after livestock. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'We got so scared with the sound of artillery,' she said. 'But my husband stayed back and now we lost the connection. I couldn't call him. I don't know what is happening back there.' In Kuala Lumpur, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, the chair of the ASEAN regional bloc, said he would continue to push a ceasefire proposal. Cambodia has backed Anwar's plan, while Thailand has said it agreed with it in principle. 'There is still some exchange of fire,' Anwar said, according to state news agency Bernama. He said he had asked his foreign minister 'to liaise with the respective foreign ministries and, if possible, I will continue engaging with them myself – at least to halt the fighting'. Security council meeting Thailand's ambassador to the United Nations told a Security Council meeting on Friday that soldiers had been injured by newly planted land mines in Thai territory on two occasions since mid-July - claims Cambodia has strongly denied - and said Cambodia had then launched attacks on Thursday morning. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'Thailand urges Cambodia to immediately cease all hostilities and acts of aggression, and resume dialogue in good faith,' Cherdchai Chaivaivid told the council in remarks released to media. Cambodia's defense ministry said Thailand had launched 'a deliberate, unprovoked, and unlawful military attack' and was mobilizing troops and military equipment on the border. 'These deliberate military preparations reveal Thailand's intent to expand its aggression and further violate Cambodia's sovereignty,' the ministry said in a statement on Saturday. Cambodia called for the international community to 'condemn Thailand's aggression in the strongest terms' and to prevent an expansion of its military activities, while Bangkok reiterated it wanted to resolve the dispute bilaterally. Thailand and Cambodia have bickered for decades over jurisdiction of various undemarcated points along their 817-km (508-mile) land border, with ownership of the ancient Hindu temples Ta Moan Thom and the 11th century Preah Vihear central to the disputes. Preah Vihear was awarded to Cambodia by the International Court of Justice in 1962, but tension escalated in 2008 after Cambodia attempted to list it as a UNESCO World Heritage site. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD That led to skirmishes over several years and at least a dozen deaths. Cambodia in June said it had asked the court to resolve its disputes with Thailand, which says it has never recognized the court's jurisdiction and prefers a bilateral approach.


Hindustan Times
an hour ago
- Hindustan Times
'We will soon see': Donald Trump seeks to broker ceasefire amid Thailand Cambodia conflict
US President Donald Trump on Saturday said he has spoken to representatives of both Cambodia and Thailand, border nations currently embroiled in a conflict. The President said both countries want immediate ceasefire, and want to hop back on a 'Trading Table' with the United States. Amid ongoing clashes between Thailand and Cambodia, Donald Trump has said both sides want a ceasefire.(AFP) "After speaking to both Parties, Ceasefire, Peace, and Prosperity seems to be a natural. We will soon see!" a part of Trump's Truth Social post read. He said he had phone calls with the Prime Minister of Cambodia and the acting Prime Minister of Thailand. It has been three days since Cambodia and Thailand's border dispute intensified, leading to clashes, with both nations claiming they acted in self-defence. Talking about his separate conversations with leaders of Cambodia and Thailand, Trump said, 'They are also looking to get back to the 'Trading Table' with the United States, which we think is inappropriate to do until such time as the fighting STOPS.' Trump said he would conclude trading agreements with both countries when peace is restored. Announcing his efforts to broker a ceasefire between Cambodia and Thailand, Trump also referenced the India-Pakistan conflict from May, that he has multiple times claimed to have stopped. 'I am trying to simplify a complex situation! Many people are being killed in this War, but it very much reminds me of the Conflict between Pakistan and India, which was brought to a successful halt,' a part of another post by Trump read. Thailand and Cambodia share a 817-km long land border, and have had a dispute for years regarding the ownership of a Hindu temple, the Prasat Ta Muen Thom, located on the border. Over 30 people have lost their lives and thousands have been displaced in what is being seen as the biggest fighting between the neighbours in 13 years. In Thailand, seven soldiers and 13 civilians had been killed and Cambodia has reportedly lost five soldiers and eight civilians, according to news agency Reuters.


Time of India
2 hours ago
- Time of India
Sanctions risk: Indian firm defends explosive shipment to Russia; says material for civilian use only
This is an AI-generated image, used for representational purposes only. An Indian company that exported $1.4 million worth of an explosive compound to Russia last December said it complied with Indian rules and that the shipment was strictly for civilian industrial purposes, not military use. According to news agency Reuters, Ideal Detonators Private Limited confirmed that the material exported, HMX, also known as octogen, was not of military grade. 'The shipment ... is for industrial activity and it's a civil explosive,' the Telangana-based firm said in an email response. HMX is known for its powerful military applications, including use in missile and torpedo warheads and other advanced weapon systems. The US government has called the compound 'critical for Russia's war effort' and has warned that any sale of such materials to Moscow could trigger sanctions under its treasury department's guidelines. Reuters first reported that Ideal Detonators shipped HMX to two Russian buyers in last December, Promsintez and High Technology Initiation Systems (HTIS), according to Indian customs data. One of them, Promsintez, has ties to Russia's military, a Ukrainian security official claimed, and its factory was targeted by a Ukrainian drone attack in April. The US state department said it had communicated with India about the risks involved in doing military-related business with Russia. "We have repeatedly made clear to all our partners, including India, that any foreign company or financial institution that does business with Russia's military industrial base are at risk of US sanctions," a spokesperson was quoted as saying by Reuters. India's foreign ministry, however, responded that all dual-use exports are regulated under a robust legal framework. 'India has been carrying out exports of dual-use items taking into account its international obligations on non-proliferation,' the ministry said. According to Reuters, HMX is also used in limited civilian areas such as mining and industrial blasting. HTIS, one of the recipients, claims to manufacture explosives for mining and engineering projects. HTIS is listed as a subsidiary of Madrid-based Maxam, which is controlled by US private equity firm Rhone Capital. Maxam is reportedly in the process of divesting its Russian subsidiaries. While India has deepened ties with Washington in recent years, its historic defense and trade relationship with Moscow remains intact. Indian oil purchases and other trade with Russia have remained strong, even amid global sanctions over the Ukraine war. Stay informed with the latest business news, updates on bank holidays and public holidays . AI Masterclass for Students. Upskill Young Ones Today!– Join Now