Americans' economic, financial expectations sink in April
The Brief
A record 53% of Americans say their personal finances are getting worse, and most now expect the economy and stock market to decline.
Just 29% believe the stock market will rise in the next six months, down from 61% in January; pessimism about job prospects and economic growth has surged.
Gallup and the IMF cite Trump's tariffs as a key factor behind the economic gloom, with global growth forecast to slow and U.S. inflation expected to rise.
WASHINGTON - A new Gallup poll showed that Americans' mood towards the economy and their own finances, sunk in April and, in some cases, substantially.
Research showed that 53% of Americans believe their personal financial situation is getting worse, a record high.
Methodology
Gallup's annual Economy and Personal Finance survey was conducted from April 1 to April 14. Most of the poll was conducted after President Donald Trump announced "Liberation Day" tariffs on numerous countries on April 2.
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By the numbers
Gallup showed that Americans have grown more pessimistic about the direction of the stock market and economic growth in the wake of Trump taking office.
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The findings showed:
Just 29% now expect the stock market to go up over the next six months, while 58% think it will decline. This is a near reversal from late January, when 61% foresaw the market gaining and 18% declining.
Similarly, 38% are currently optimistic about U.S. economic growth, predicting it will increase over the next six months, while 48% think it is likely to decline. This differs from the strongly positive tilt in January, when 53% believed economic growth would rise and 29% thought it would decline.
58% now believe it's a bad time to find a quality job, whereas 38% consider it a good time. This is a change from January, when the public was split between calling it a good time (48%) and a bad time (45%).
Gallup said the results showed that this is the most pessimistic outlook for jobs that researchers have recorded in four years, since January 2021, during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The survey also revealed:
A quarter of Americans believe the economy is currently growing, 33% perceive it's slowing down, and 42% say it is in a recession (27%) or economic depression (15%).
Attitudes are more positive about where the economy will be a year from now, with 45% predicting it will be growing by that time and fewer thinking it will be slowing down (7%). However, the percentage expecting the economy to be in a recession or depression (47% combined) is slightly larger than the 42% saying that about the current economy.
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Dig deeper
"Public attitudes about several specific aspects of the U.S. economy have changed markedly in the short time Trump has been in office, as Americans' expectations for the stock market, economic growth and employment have turned negative and consumers are feeling unusually pessimistic about their personal finances," researchers said.
Big picture view
The U.S. and global economies will likely slow significantly in the wake of Trump's tariffs and the uncertainty they have created, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday.
The IMF said that the global economy will grow just 2.8% this year, down from its forecast in January of 3.3%, according to its latest World Economic Outlook. And in 2026, global growth will be 3%, the fund predicts, also below its previous 3.3% estimate.
The forecasts underscore the widespread impact of both the tariffs and the uncertainty they have created. Every country in the world is affected, the IMF said, by hikes in US import taxes that have now lifted average U.S. duties to about 25%, the highest in a century.
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The Trump administration has slapped duties on cars, steel, and aluminum, as well as 25% import taxes on most goods from Canada and Mexico. The White House has also imposed 10% tariffs on nearly all imports, and a huge 145% duty on goods from China, though smartphone and computers have been exempted. China has retaliated with 125% duties on US goods.
Inflation will likely worsen in the United States, rising to about 3% by the end of this year, while it will be little changed in China, the IMF forecast.
The Source
The Associated Press contributed to this report. The information in this story comes primarily from Gallup's annual Economy and Personal Finance survey, conducted from April 1 to April 14, which measured Americans' views on their personal finances, the job market, the stock market, and overall economic conditions. This story was reported from Los Angeles.
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