Walmart is due to report earnings on Thursday. Here's what analysts say to expect

CNBC

8 hours ago

Walmart is slated to report second-quarter earnings before the opening bell on Thursday, and several analysts are optimistic about the retailer heading into the print, even after the stock's outperformance since the start of the year. Analysts surveyed by LSEG expect Walmart to earnings per share to rise by more than 10% compared to the same period a year ago. Revenue is estimated to expand by 4% versus last year. Analysts will watch for any insights into how President Donald Trump's tariffs have affected the country's largest retailer in the past three months. Walmart Chief Financial Officer John David Rainey in May said that higher duties could lead the company to start raising prices . The Bentonville, Arkansas-based chain also declined to give second-quarter EPS or operating income growth guidance, citing shifting tariff policy. Since then, Walmart has moved to increase prices on certain items , such as baby gear and home goods. "Perhaps more important for Walmart and the broader retail space will be commentary on its relative price strategy (which we think has been aggressive), along with early consumer responses to price changes (likely modest elasticity but expectations to worsen)," Barclays analyst Seth Sigman wrote this week. Sigman (overweight, $108 price target) also said he "would not be surprised" if Wal-Mart's outlook stays the same, even against what he expects will amount to a "strong" second quarter. "While there is potential upside to FY guidance based on 1H, there is a case to not raise guidance right now," he wrote. "Actual tariffs are still fluid given delays, and it's very early in price increases across the retail space." In 2025, Walmart has outperformed the S & P 500 , rising more than 12% through Tuesday's close, against the index's 9% gain. Sigman's view is also consensus on Wall Street. Of the 43 analysts covering Walmart, all but one rate it buy or strong buy, according to LSEG. Here's what some had to say before Thursday's results: TD Cowen: buy rating and $115 price target Analyst Oliver Chen's target implies more than 14% upside from Tuesday's close of $100.69. "The investor bar is set for a continuation of 1Q's momentum with 2Q U.S. comps of at least +4% vs. 4.5% in 1Q. WMT previously communicated an expectation for a temporary retail inventory accounting lift (related to tariffs) to 2Q gross margins and a corresponding reversal in 3Q. The investor bar for 2Q gross margin is at least +15-20bps Y/Y … We expect a 2Q beat but reiterated FY guidance given uncertainty around consumer sentiment and the macro backdrop ahead of 2H." Bank of America: buy, $120 Analyst Robert Ohmes' target reflects more than 19% upside over the coming 12 months. "WMT did not provide 2Q EBIT or EPS guide in light of the dynamic backdrop (tariffs & inventory accounting), though we see WMT well positioned to manage tariffs given its scale with suppliers, advanced pricing, automation, & inventory management, potential to shift imported [first party] goods to [third party], & lower import exposure vs. many peers … We maintain Buy on WMT as share gains continue across product categories & incomes (esp. $100k+) as its strong value offering & digital convenience resonate. WMT's outlook for [long-term] profitability continues to improve with support from digital advertising, [third party] marketplace & improvements in core [e-commerce] losses. Despite WMT's current 34x P/E near 20+ year highs, we see support for cont'd expansion." Morgan Stanley: overweight, $115 Analyst Simeon Gutman's price objective also calls for more than 14% upside. "While tariffs remain a source of uncertainty around 2FH26e earnings, WMT should continue to play to its strengths to negotiate these challenges, thanks to its superior supply chain, increasing eCommerce reach and profitability, and alternative, high margin revenue streams. We see modest upside to current 2Q consensus expectations, with F'26e guidance to remain unchanged for now, reflecting the uncertainty around the impact of tariffs and price increases required during 2FH26e. We don't think this will be negatively perceived so long as eCommerce, Retail Media and Walmart+ Membership — the key drivers in WMT's flywheel — maintain momentum, which we believe is the case." Wells Fargo: overweight, $108 price target Analyst Edward Kelly's target would amount to more than 7% upside over the next year. "Q2 is trickier than normal given the absence of guidance amid [Retail Inventory Method] accounting/tariff pricing volatility, but we expect a similar underlying story ... share gains (incl. 4%+ U.S. comp); margin progress; reiterate FY guidance despite uncertainty; fly wheel narrative intact. More important may be color on the consumer (possibly cautious) and tariff pricing (talk about playing offense); both could fuel investor caution on the 2H retail outlook." Oppenheimer: outperform rating and $115 price target Analyst Rupesh Parikh's target for the stock would equal more than 14% appreciation over the next 12 months. "Following a more difficult backdrop to start the year due to unexpected tariff and expense headwinds, we believe a positive guidance revision cycle could again materialize soon … We expect a solid all-around top-line delivery about consistent with the high-end of management's Q2 constant currency sales guidance of +3.5-4.5% … We believe management could raise FY25 (Jan. 2026) full-year targets with either the upcoming Q2 release or with the Q3 print. Amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, we would expect management to maintain conservatism and believe it is unlikely to fully flow through first half upside."