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Axios
a few seconds ago
- Axios
Focus groups: Trump redistricting push could backfire with swing voters
The reaction of Georgia swing voters in our latest Engagious / Sago focus groups shows how President Trump's sudden push for redistricting could backfire on the GOP in the midterms — if Democrats can hold voters' attention. The big picture: Just four of the 11 Biden-to-Trump swing voters in Tuesday night's sessions said they could explain why more than 50 Democratic Texas legislators have left that state. But when provided with neutral facts describing the situation, none of the 11 said they support the GOP redistricting effort. All 11 oppose an effort from the state attorney general to remove some of the Democrats from office. 10 of the 11 said Texas Democrats did the right thing by leaving the state. "Once Georgia swing voters understand what Texas Republicans are attempting, they reject it," said Rich Thau, president of Engagious, who moderated the focus groups. "That said, Democrats have done a lousy job of educating swing voters about mid-decade redistricting." Zoom in: Of the 11 focus group participants, all of whom backed President Trump in November, just three now say they approve of the administration's overall actions. All 11 said they're more anxious about the economy now than when Trump took office. Seven said they disapprove of the tariffs. How it works: Axios observed two online focus groups Tuesday night that included 11 Georgia residents who voted for Joe Biden in 2020 and Donald Trump in 2024. Five are Democrats, four are independents and two are Republicans. While a focus group is not a statistically significant sample like a poll, the responses show how some voters are thinking and talking about current events. What they're saying: " The cost of living is ridiculous and it's not slowing down; it shows no signs of getting better," said Todd L., 42, of Atlanta. "It seems like every other day there's a new tariff or he's pissed off some other country, and just every single day there's more news about inflation and job losses," said Gavin E., 52, of Decatur. "It just keeps getting worse and worse. We're hemorrhaging. It's crazy." When it comes to the Texas redistricting dispute, Kevin J., 57, of Woodstock, said: "Doing this now and redrawing their districts, that's just they want to please Donald Trump." Said Chris Z., 36, of Norcross: "He wants it now. He wants it his way. There's a proper way to do things and he doesn't follow. ... There's no balance of power. That's just not how things operate, and it'll be a domino effect with other states doing the same thing." "Once it's done every five years, then some state will push it to two years and some state will push it to a year," said Sherrecia J., 34, of Atlanta. "It's going to become more and more ridiculous. It has to have a boundary." "What's the purpose of having laws and constitutions and protocols if they're not going to be followed?" said Olanrewaju A., 44, of Decatur. Meanwhile, Thau also spent a portion of the sessions asking these swing voters how they are using and thinking about AI. The panels followed the launch of OpenAI's GPT-5. Some communities, including in Georgia, are raising concerns about the growth of data centers and their potential strains on the power grid and the environment. 10 of the 11 said they've used some form of AI; five use ChatGPT at least weekly; eight consider themselves supporters of AI. Nine worried AI will weaken privacy protections, especially related to financial data; nine also feared AI will be used to undermine America's political system; and eight said they fear AI will figure out how to launch weapons on its own, without human commands.
Newsweek
a minute ago
- Newsweek
Video: Russia Says Ukraine Drone Struck Rostov Apartment Building
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. Video footage shared by Russian Telegram channels showed the moment a Ukrainian drone struck an apartment building in Rostov-on-Don, which the local governor said left at least thirteen people injured, two of them seriously. The drone can be seen flying slowly over buildings in the southern Russian city before descending towards the top of one and exploding on impact. WILD FOOTAGE 🔴 Video shows a Ukrainian drone slowly flying and striking a building in Rostov, southern Russia. — Open Source Intel (@Osint613) August 14, 2025 Rostov's Acting Governor Yury Slyusar said several apartment buildings were damaged in the "drone attack" and those hurt were taken to the hospital for treatment. Russia and Ukraine continue to attack each other ahead of an Alaska summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin at which the two leaders will discuss a potential peace deal. Ukraine and its European allies are hoping Trump emerges from the meeting with Russia agreeing to a ceasefire. This is a breaking news story. Updates to follow.
Business Insider
a minute ago
- Business Insider
Government data is now in question. Here's where macro investors are turning to fill the gaps.
No savvy investor makes a decision off a single data point, but there are some numbers that carry more weight than others. For many macro investors, the North Star has long been the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unit within the Department of Labor that measures, among other things, inflation, unemployment rates, and wage growth. Those in charge of the BLS have long been non-partisan economists, but President Donald Trump's firing of Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on August 1 and his top pick for her replacement, chief economist at the right-leaning Heritage Foundation, EJ Antoni, have many concerned with the validity of future government data, especially as Antoni floated pausing monthly jobs reports. It's concerning for macro traders who rely on this data to make their bets, but there are non-governmental data sources that many already use. While helpful, these alternative databases can't replicate the widespread foundation BLS numbers provided for decades, where all market participants worked for the same set of basic facts about the state of the world's biggest economy. Still, traders are ramping up their use of this data in light of Trump's moves. "What's going to be tricky here is how to judge numbers coming out of the Bureau of Labor Statistics moving forward," said Andreas Steno Larsen, onetime macro investor and researcher, on his weekly podcast. He compared the firing to something that would happen "in Latin America" and predicted that investors would "look for alternative sources" to get a second opinion on the official data. Four macro investors pointed to the well-known ADP jobs report, which comes out monthly and tracks payroll from private employers, and MIT's Billion Prices Project as ways to track employment and inflation, respectively, in the US. The investors declined to be named because their firms don't authorize them to speak publicly. Some investors tap datasets that constantly scrape e-commerce prices, such as PriceStats, and track how different products rise and fall over time. This is a useful tool to understand Trump's tariff policies' impact, given the volume of online goods that US consumers buy from overseas. Payroll and scheduling company Homebase tracks more than 150,000 small businesses and produces monthly employment reports. LinkUp has tracked online job postings since 2007. Numerator has become a key source for in-person consumer data at places such as restaurants and home improvement stores. "Given the recent BLS conversations, we've recently seen demand for our data increase," Homebase CEO John Waldmann said in a statement. Not a replacement These alternative data sources are just that — alternative. They were used to get a sneak peek or a deeper look at inflation or unemployment figures that the government would release, not replace them entirely. They also sometimes vary. For example, ADP's payroll figures often diverge from the BLS's monthly jobs report, and MIT's Billion Prices Project can capture inflation trends sooner than the official CPI but is less comprehensive. "We don't see them replacing economic statistics altogether in the near future," said Julie Meigh, the head of ESG & macro research at alt-data platform Neudata, about non-traditional datasets. Even if BLS data becomes less trustworthy, the different macro investors who spoke with Business Insider said they'll still need to use it in some fashion unless there's a structural change in financial products. For example, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS, change when the Consumer Price Index from the government is announced. For those who have exposure to these types of assets, ignoring the BLS is not possible even if the data becomes untrustworthy. As one trader at one of the world's biggest macro hedge funds said, he was surprised markets weren't more spooked by Trump's firing. Equity markets were near record highs, and bond yields stayed mostly steady. "I think it's clear that institutions are not as strong as many had thought," this individual said.
