Asia caught between US-China power plays ahead of tariff deadlines

Qatar Tribune

5 hours ago

Agencies
Caught in the undertow of swirling power plays between China and the United States, Asia has become like a piece of driftwood battered by the pounding of opposing tides.
With key tariff deadlines approaching in July, and in light of lingering trade tensions between the world's two biggest economies, many countries in the region are facing a delicate, pragmatic choice: bow to Washington's growing pressure to crack down on supply chains and enforcement – or preserve the economic ambiguity that underpins their deep ties with Beijing?
Asian countries have entwined their supply chains, technology, markets and investment with Beijing – accounting for one-third of China's total trade volume, or US$1.89 trillion last year. Meanwhile, some of them may need security assurances from the US amid the growing Chinese influence in the region, analysts said.
China remains the top trading partner for 18 countries across the region and has been the largest trading partner of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) for 15 consecutive years.
Meanwhile, economic asymmetry and military advantage have often translated into Beijing's leverage in market power while, for many in the region, Washington represents security, diversification and strategic rebalancing, with its military presence, investment and advanced technology, analysts said.
That leaves many Asian economies walking a tightrope – benefiting from China's vast market while remaining wary of the risks of over-dependence.
For much of Asia, maintaining ties with both while caught in between has become a survival strategy.
As ongoing negotiations between the administration of US President Donald Trump and Asia unfold behind closed doors and prospects remain cloudy, 'it's too early to talk about 'camps' in Asia, as Asia can't afford to do without either China or the US', said Vivek Kelkar, an independent analyst based in India.
Some regional leaders, such as Malaysia's Anwar Ibrahim, have been verbally supportive of China because their geography and economy do not allow them to be anything else, but they may also be aware that, without the US, they are vulnerable to Chinese domination across both economics and politics, Kelkar said.
Both China and the US have shown a willingness to exercise power by weaponising supply chains and trade, Kelkar added, but there was no sign yet that Asia would cave in quite the way Trump envisages. 'Asia is trying to manage a careful balance while messaging Washington that Asia has alternatives,' he said.
For instance, Malaysia's chief negotiator, Mastura Ahmad Mustafa, told domestic news outlet The Star that although her country's tariff talks with the US were in progress, those negotiations were only one part of Malaysia's broader strategy to cushion the potential impact on exporters.
In a report published on Thursday, she said that it was hard to know whether the two sides could reach a deal before a 90-day pause on tariffs is lifted in July, and that the Malaysian government had 'begun rolling out contingency measures' such as market diversification and economic reforms.
In April, Trump imposed a 10 per cent universal tariff on all imports effective April 5, in an effort to address America's trade deficits.
His administration also announced higher 'reciprocal' tariffs on goods from select countries from April 9 – including 25 per cent for South Korea, 24 per cent for Japan, 36 per cent for Thailand, 46 per cent for Vietnam, and 49 per cent for Cambodia.
However, a grace period was granted later that month for all countries except China, delaying the implementation of these higher tariffs until July 9 and giving governments time to negotiate possible exemptions or adjustments with Washington.