While the Fed kept its benchmark unchanged, here's what happened to consumer borrowing rates

CNBC

2 days ago

When it meets this week, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep its key short-term interest rate at its current target range — where it has stayed for all of 2025.
Futures market pricing is implying almost no chance of an interest rate cut this month, according to the CME Group's FedWatch gauge. In that case, the federal funds rate would remain unchanged in a range between 4.25% to 4.5%, where it has been since December.
The Fed's benchmark sets what banks charge each other for overnight lending, but also has a trickle-down effect on many of the borrowing and savings rates consumers see in their daily lives.
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From mortgage rates and auto loans to credit cards and savings accounts, here's a look at how those rates have moved over the first half of the year while the Fed held its benchmark steady.
The trickle down from the Fed's benchmark interest rate appears most obvious in credit cards, although by the numbers it's a very slight change.
The average rate for credit card balances had been steadily increasing since the Fed began raising rates in 2022 until it finally crested just below 21% last fall, according to Bankrate. Since then, rates have nudged downward and have been hovering around 20.1% for the first half of 2025.
Auto loans have also seen very little movement in the first half of 2025, and 30-year fixed rate mortgages, whose rates are more closely tied to the yield on 10-year Treasurys, have hovered between 6.6% and 7.1% after hitting a low near 6% last fall, according to Freddie Mac.
President Donald Trump has argued that maintaining a federal funds rate that is too high makes it harder for businesses and consumers to borrow, essentially pumping the brakes on economic growth and the housing market.
Still, "there is no guarantee" that a rate cut would translate into lower borrowing costs for most Americans, according to Brett House, an economics professor at Columbia Business School.
Some variable-rate loans, like credit cards, have a direct connection to the Fed's benchmark, while others, like mortgage rates, are more closely pegged to Treasury yields and the U.S. economy, he said. "It is entirely likely that cuts to the fed funds rate in the face of increasing inflation would push mortgage rates up, not down."