Is There Any Salvaging The Division For The Chicago Cubs?

Forbes

19 hours ago

On June 1, the Cubs were 15 games above .500 and had a four game lead in their division over the Cardinals. The Brewers were 5.5 games back and in third place.
Today, the Cubs are still about the same number of games above .500, but a lot has changed otherwise.
Going into the weekend, the Cubs are now eight games behind the Brewers for the division lead, and their chances of winning the division have shrunk from 73% on June 1 to 9.3% today. They have gone from planning for the team's first division title since 2017 to hoping they can hang on to a wild card spot.
It's not that the Cubs have played terribly, however. They have gone three games above .500 since the start of June, which should have been good enough to hang on to the division lead they built in April and May. But that has not been enough, thanks to the Brewers winning at a 29 games above .500 clip in the same timeframe. Since the start of July, Milwaukee has lost just seven games.
That's historic and kind of crazy.
Sure, it's quite likely the Brewers will cool down eventually, but at this point in the season, it might not matter. The damage for the Cubs has been done.
What's gone wrong for the Cubs then?
Even though the wins have been slower to come compared to April and May, the Cubs haven't exactly been in a free fall. Their pitching and defense have both still been solid, and they have improved their overall run differential from +97 to +115 since the beginning of June.
In many respects, they are still doing a lot of things right, but there is one significant area where the Cubs have fallen short: They don't hit very well in clutch situations, and guys like Kyle Tucker and Pete Crow-Armstrong who were coming through in those spots earlier in the season are struggling to find it at the plate over the last couple of months.
Case in point, the Cubs had a golden opportunity against the Blue Jays on Thursday to come from behind and grab a much-needed win. Down 2-1 in the eighth inning, they got runners on second and third with nobody out, but Ian Happ, Kyle Tucker, and Carson Kelly each struck out to strand the game-tying and go-ahead runs. According to Fangraphs' 'clutch' metric, the Cubs rank 13th in baseball in hitting in high-leverage situations, and there's no questioning the fact that they have struggled to come through with runners in scoring position more times than just Thursday in Toronto.
There's also the case to be made that they could have done more at the trade deadline. The Cubs added a few arms for the bullpen and one for the rotation (Michael Soroka, who lasted just two innings in his Cubs debut and is already on the injured list), along with utilityman Willi Castro.
But that has not been enough to rejuvenate a team that had 23 comeback wins before the All-Star break but has not had any since then. They called up top prospect Owen Caissie for Thursday's game, and it's possible that he gives the offense a shot in the arm, but it's a lot to put on a rookie to ask him to carry a big-league offense during his first look at major league pitching. Not to mention that being in the midst of a highly-important, late-season playoff push.
If the Cubs are going to turn things around, it will come down to two things:
Number one, the guys who helped the Cubs get to the top of the division in the first two months need to start coming through again. The established veterans, like Tucker, who has batted just .218 in July and .150 in August. And young phenoms like Crow-Armstrong have had it even worse; he is batting .073 and has 15 strikeouts to no walks and just three hits this month.
And number two, the Cubs need to take full advantage of what little opportunity they still have to gain ground in the division.
They have five games in four days against the Brewers at Wrigley Field next week, and if there is a time for the Cubs to salvage their division title chances, that's really it. After that series, ends there are no more head-to-head matchups with Milwaukee, and the Cubs will have to rely on other teams beating them to help the cause, and as we've seen since the start of June, that has not worked out very well. If the Cubs come up short in those five games at Wrigley Field next week, the focus has to turn to maintaining a wild card spot.
The problem with that is that it's not enough. The Cubs haven't won a division title in eight years and have waited just as long for a playoff win. Earlier this season, they looked set to end that streak, but unless things turn around quickly, the Cubs will have to wait at least another year for their next NL Central crown.