Euro zone inflation edges higher, hitting ECB's 2% target in June

CNBC

01-07-2025

Euro zone inflation rose slightly to 2% in June, according to flash data from statistics agency Eurostat, meaning consumer prices in the single currency area are now in line with the European Central Bank's target of 2%.
Economists polled by Reuters had expected the reading to come in at 2% in the twelve months to June. Euro zone inflation had fallen by more than expected to 1.9% in May.
Core inflation, which excludes energy, food, tobacco and alcohol prices, was unchanged at 2.3% in June.
The closely watched services inflation print picked up to 3.3% in June, after cooling significantly in May to 3.2%, down from a 4% reading in April.
Individual inflation prints released in the last week by major euro zone economies showed an easing in the harmonized inflation rate in Germany, a small rise in France and Spain, but no change in Italy in June — indicating that the wider euro area reading would have likely edged toward the 2% level targeted by the ECB.
That has further stoked expectations that the central bank will opt to cut interest rates in the third quarter.
The ECB's Chief Economist Philip Lane told CNBC on Tuesday that he believed the latest period of monetary policy interventions to bring inflation in check is "done."
"We do think the last cycle is done, bringing inflation down from the peak of 10[%], back to 2%, that element is over, but on a forward-looking basis we do need to stand ready to make sure that any deviation we see does not become embedded, does not change the medium-term picture," Lane said in an interview with CNBC's Annette Weisbach at the ECB's annual forum in Sintra, Portugal.
The ECB needs to remain data-dependent but will not respond to any isolated "blip" in inflation going forward, Lane said.
Analysts have warned that external factors could still upset the disinflation trajectory, however, with persistently high services inflation, recent volatility in oil prices on the back of conflict in the Middle East and potential U.S. trade tariffs all cited as concerns.
If economic shocks fail to materialize in the next few months and the disinflationary trend continues, however, economists believe the central bank is on course to hold rates steady at its next meeting in July, but could opt for a rate cut in September.