Oil little changed after hitting one-week low, oversupply concerns linger
were little changed on Tuesday after three days of declines on mounting
oversupply concerns
after OPEC+ agreed to another large output increase in September, though the potential for more Russian supply disruptions supported the market.
Brent crude
futures were unchanged at $68.76 a barrel by 0036 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $66.27 a barrel, down 2 cents, or 0.03%.
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Both contracts fell by more than 1% in the previous session to settle at their lowest in a week.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, together known as OPEC+, pumps about half of the world's oil and had been curtailing production for several years to support the market, but the group introduced a series of accelerated output hikes this year to regain market share.
In its latest decision, OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day for September.
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It marks a full and early reversal of the group's largest tranche of output cuts, amounting to about 2.5 million bpd, or about 2.4% of global demand, though analysts caution the actual amount returning to the market will be less.
At the same time, U.S. demands for India to stop buying Russian oil as Washington seeks ways to push Moscow for a peace deal with Ukraine is increasing concerns of a disruption to supply flows.
U.S. President Donald Trump is threatening to impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russian crude buyers. This follows a 25% tariff on Indian imports announced in July.
India is the biggest buyer of seaborne crude from Russia, importing about 1.75 million bpd of Russian oil from January to June this year, up 1% from a year ago, according to data provided to Reuters by trade sources.
"India has become a major buyer of the Kremlin's oil since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Any disruption to those purchases would force Russia to find alternative buyers from an increasingly small group of allies," ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes wrote in a note.
Traders are also awaiting any developments on the latest U.S. tariffs on its trading partners, which analysts fear could slow down economic growth and dampen fuel demand growth.
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Business Standard
7 minutes ago
- Business Standard
Putin doubts potency of Trump's ultimatum to end the war: Report
Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to bow to a sanctions ultimatum expiring this Friday from U.S. President Donald Trump, and retains the goal of capturing four regions of Ukraine in their entirety, sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters. Trump has threatened to hit Russia with new sanctions and impose 100% tariffs on countries that buy its oil - of which the biggest are China and India - unless Putin agrees to a ceasefire in Russia's war in Ukraine. Putin's determination to keep going is prompted by his belief that Russia is winning and by scepticism that yet more U.S. sanctions will have much of an impact after successive waves of economic penalties during 3-1/2 years of war, according to three sources familiar with discussions in the Kremlin. The Russian leader does not want to anger Trump, and he realises that he may be spurning a chance to improve relations with Washington and the West, but his war goals take precedence, two of the sources said. Putin's goal is to fully capture the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, which Russia has claimed as its own, and then to talk about a peace agreement, one of the sources said. "If Putin were able to fully occupy those four regions which he has claimed for Russia he could claim that his war in Ukraine had reached his objectives," said James Rodgers, author of the forthcoming book "The Return of Russia". The current talks process, in which Russian and Ukrainian negotiators have met three times since May, was an attempt by Moscow to convince Trump that Putin was not rejecting peace, the first source said, adding that the talks were devoid of real substance apart from discussions on humanitarian exchanges. Russia says it is serious about agreeing a long-term peace in the negotiations but that the process is complicated because the two sides' stances are so far apart. Putin last week described the talks as positive. Moscow's stated demands include a full Ukrainian withdrawal from the four regions and acceptance by Kyiv of neutral status and limits on the size of its military' demands rejected by Ukraine. In a sign that there may yet be an opportunity to strike a deal before the deadline, Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to visit Russia this week, following an escalation in rhetoric between Trump and Moscow over risks of nuclear war. On Monday, Russia said it was no longer bound by a moratorium on short- and medium-range nuclear missiles. The Kremlin did not respond to a request for comment for this story. All the sources spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the situation. Trump, who in the past has praised Putin and held out the prospect of lucrative business deals between their two countries, has lately expressed growing impatience with the Russian president. He has complained about what he called Putin's "bullshit" and described Russia's relentless bombing of Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities as "disgusting". The Kremlin has said it noted Trump's statements but it has declined to respond to them. Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko last week called on the world to respond with "maximum pressure" after the worst Russian air strike of the year killed 31 people in Kyiv, including five children, in what she called Russia's response to Trump's deadline. "President Trump wants to stop the killing, which is why he is selling American-made weapons to NATO members and threatening Putin with biting tariffs and sanctions if he does not agree to a ceasefire," White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said in response to a request for comment. FORCES ADVANCE The first source said Putin was privately concerned about the recent deterioration of U.S. ties. Putin still retains the hope that Russia can again befriend America and trade with the West, and "he is worried" about Trump's irritation, this person said. But with Moscow's forces advancing on the battlefield and Ukraine under heavy military pressure, Putin does not believe now is the time to end the war, the source said, adding that neither the Russian people nor the army would understand if he stops now. Rodgers, the author, said Putin has invested his political reputation and legacy in the war in Ukraine. "We know from his previous writings and statements that he sees himself as part of a strong tradition of standing up to the West and the rest of world to defend Russia's interests," he said. The Kremlin leader values the relationship with Trump and does not want to anger him, however, "he simply has a top priority - Putin cannot afford to end the war just because Trump wants it," the second Russian source said. A third person familiar with Kremlin thinking also said Russia wanted to take all four regions and did not see the logic in stopping at a time of battlefield gains during Russia's summer offensive. Ukraine has suffered some of its biggest territorial losses of 2025 in the past three months, including 502 square kilometres in July, according to Black Bird Group, a Finland-based military analysis centre. In total, Russia has occupied around a fifth of Ukraine. Russia's military General Staff has told Putin that the Ukrainian front will crumble in two or three months, the first person said. However, Russia’s recent gains remain relatively minor in purely territorial terms, with only 5,000 square kilometres (1,930 square miles) of Ukraine taken since the start of last year, less than 1% of the country's overall territory, according to a June report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. Ukrainian and Western military sources, acknowledge that Russia is making gains, but only gradually and with heavy casualties. Russian war bloggers say Moscow's forces have been bogged down during its current summer offensive in areas where the terrain and dense urban landscape favoured Ukraine, but assess that other areas should be faster to take. 'HE'S MADE THREATS BEFORE' Trump's sanctions threat was "painful and unpleasant," but not a catastrophe, the second source said. The third source said there was a feeling in Moscow that "there's not much more that they can do to us". It was also not clear if Trump would follow through on his ultimatum, this person said, adding that "he's made threats before" and then not acted, or changed his mind. The source also said it was hard to imagine that China would stop buying Russian oil on instructions from Trump, and that his actions risked backfiring by driving oil prices higher. As a consequence of previous rounds of sanctions, Russian oil and gas exporters have taken big hits to their revenues, and foreign direct investment in the country fell by 63% last year, according to U.N. trade data. Around $300 billion of central bank assets have been frozen in foreign jurisdictions. But Russia's ability to wage war has been unimpeded, thanks in part to ammunition supplies from North Korea and imports from China of dual-use components that have sustained a massive rise in weapons production. The Kremlin has repeatedly said that Russia has some "immunity" to sanctions. Trump has acknowledged Russia's skill in skirting the measures. "They're wily characters and they're pretty good at avoiding sanctions, so we'll see what happens," he told reporters at the weekend, when asked what his response would be if Russia did not agree to a ceasefire. The first Russian source noted that Putin, in pursuing the conflict, was turning his back on a U.S. offer made in March that Washington, in return for his agreement to a full ceasefire, would remove U.S. sanctions, recognise Russian possession of Crimea - annexed from Ukraine in 2014 - and acknowledge de facto Russian control of the territory captured by its forces since 2022. The source called the offer a "fantastic chance," but said stopping a war was much more difficult than starting it.
Time of India
24 minutes ago
- Time of India
Trump administration to formally axe Elon Musk's 'five things' email
The Trump administration plans as soon as Tuesday to formally axe a program launched by billionaire former Trump adviser Elon Musk requiring federal employees to summarize their five workplace achievements from the prior week, two people familiar with the matter said. The Office of Personnel Management, the federal human resources agency that implemented Musk's push to slash the federal workforce , plans to announce the end of the "five things" email to HR representatives across the federal government later on Tuesday, the two people said, declining to be named because the matter was not public. While many federal agencies had already phased out compliance with the weekly email, the move, not previously reported, signals the Trump administration is turning the page on one of Musk's most unpopular initiatives following a dramatic row between the two men in early June. The White House and OPM did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Productivity Tool Zero to Hero in Microsoft Excel: Complete Excel guide By Metla Sudha Sekhar View Program Finance Introduction to Technical Analysis & Candlestick Theory By Dinesh Nagpal View Program Finance Financial Literacy i e Lets Crack the Billionaire Code By CA Rahul Gupta View Program Digital Marketing Digital Marketing Masterclass by Neil Patel By Neil Patel View Program Finance Technical Analysis Demystified- A Complete Guide to Trading By Kunal Patel View Program Productivity Tool Excel Essentials to Expert: Your Complete Guide By Study at home View Program Artificial Intelligence AI For Business Professionals Batch 2 By Ansh Mehra View Program Musk, who spent over a quarter of a billion dollars to help Trump win November's presidential election, led the Department of Government Efficiency's efforts to slash the budget and cut the federal workforce until his departure in May to refocus on his tech empire. Musk initially received a warm White House sendoff from Trump, but then incurred the president's wrath by describing Trump's tax cut and spending bill as an abomination. Trump pulled the nomination of Musk ally and tech entrepreneur Jared Isaacman to lead NASA and later threatened to cancel billions of dollars worth of federal contracts with Musk's companies after the blowup between the two men. The "five things" email, launched by Musk in February to boost accountability, sparked tensions with department chiefs who were blindsided by the weekend email mandating the move. It also fueled confusion among government workers who received mixed messages about whether and how to comply. Reuters reported in March that the White House installed two Trump loyalists at OPM to ensure better policy coordination between the White House and the agency. Live Events Scott Kupor, a venture capitalist who took the helm at OPM in July, foreshadowed the end of the initiative last month, describing processing of the weekly response emails as "very manual" and "not efficient." It is "something that we should look at and see, like, are we getting the value out of it that at least the people who put it in place thought they were," he said.
Time of India
24 minutes ago
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In rejecting the jobs report, Trump follows his own playbook of discrediting unfavorable data
When the coronavirus surged during President Donald Trump 's first term, he called for a simple fix: Limit the amount of testing so the deadly outbreak looked less severe. When he lost the 2020 election, he had a ready-made reason: The vote count was fraudulent. And on Friday, when the July jobs report revisions showed a distressed economy, Trump had an answer: He fired the official in charge of the data and called the report of a sharp slowdown in hiring "phony." 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He said Trump is focused on getting dependable numbers, despite the president linking the issue to politics by claiming the revisions were meant to make Republicans look bad. "The president wants his own people there so that when we see the numbers, they're more transparent and more reliable," Hassett said Sunday on NBC News. Jed Kolko, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics who oversaw the Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis during the Biden administration, stressed that revisions to the jobs data are standard. That's because the numbers are published monthly, but not all surveys used are returned quickly enough to be in the initial publishing of the jobs report. "Revisions solve the tension between timeliness and accuracy," Kolko said. "We want timely data because policymakers and businesses and investors need to make decisions with the best data that's available, but we also want accuracy." Kolko stressed the importance in ensuring that federal statistics are trustworthy not just for government policymakers but for the companies trying to gauge the overall direction of the economy when making hiring and investment choices. Not every part of the jobs report was deemed suspect by the Trump administration. Before Trump ordered the firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer trumpeted the findings on native-born citizens, noting on Fox Business Network 's "Varney & Co." that they are accounting "for all of the job growth, and that's key." During his first run for the presidency, Trump criticized the economic data as being fake only to fully embrace the positive numbers shortly after he first entered the White House in 2017. The problem is that the firing of the labor statistics commissioner might make the data even less dependable. "It is unfortunate that the BLS Commissioner is being made a scapegoat, particularly as firing her is only likely to reduce reliability as thousands of BLS employees now realize that their jobs could be at risk if they deliver bad news," said Betsey Stevenson, a University of Michigan economist and a former chief economist at the Labor Department. White House says transparency is a value The challenge of reliable data goes beyond economic figures to basic information on climate change and scientific research. In July, taxpayer-funded reports on the problems climate change is creating for America and its population disappeared from government websites. The White House initially said NASA would post the reports in compliance with a 1990 law, but the agency later said it would not because any legal obligations were already met by having reports submitted to Congress. The White House maintains that it has operated with complete openness, posting a picture of Trump on Monday on social media with the caption, "The Most Transparent President in History." In the picture, Trump had his back to the camera and was covered in shadows, visibly blocking out most of the light in front of him.
