SP 500 Futures Key Levels and Analysis for the Coming Week 3/16/25
SP 500 Futures
The chart is key to this analysis.
(ESH25)
ESH25
From last week,
The high that happened last Sunday night traded above 5969.00 (38.2%), but never closed above it. The break from it hit the short term target area of 5766.00 (38.2%) and the 200 day average at 5752.00 and it rallied $100 from there. It failed to get even close to the new 38.2% level back to the ATH and it collapsed again and closed below 5766.00 on Thursday. On Friday it traded down through the 5706.00 major Gann square and then closed back above 5766.00 and the 200 day average that is now 5765.00. As always one close below a key level is okay as long as the next day it is right back above it as it just did. The spike down on Friday and the big rally that followed looks a lot like the 8/5/24 low when it traded well below 23.6% back to the 2022 low and then closed above it, what followed was a $600 rally and eventually on to a new high. Holding 5766.00 (38.2%) can have a similar effect. A rally from here can send it to 78.6% back to the ATH, we will also be watching 38.2%, as a failure to get above it can send it quickly lower.
Use 5766.00 as the swing point for the week.
Below it, the short term target area is the 5566.00 major Gann square and 23.6% back to the 2022 low at 5546.00. The long term....
Sunday night opened below the 5766.00 swing point for the week and it quickly got down into the next major area of support between the 5566.00 major Gann square and 23.6% back to the 2022 low at 5546.00. It did have one close below 5546.00 on Thursday only to have Friday close back above it after a $100 rally. This key area can send this market back to a new high eventually just as we thought if it held 5766.00. This has been a very large move down from the major Gann square cluster between 6102.00 to 6142.00, however holding a 23.6% retracement (2022 low) is always a very strong sign and the market can quickly get to a new high, or a good test of it, ideally that would be a 78.6% retracement. In the very big picture the long term trend will not be damaged until 38.2% of that same move is taken out and that will be the next major support area if the 5546.00 level fails to turn the market back up.
Use 5546.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, the first test of the strength of any rally will be 38.2% back to the 2/19/25 high at 5760.00, the 200 day average is also right there at 5771.00, failing to get above this area after holding a key long term retracement (5546.00) would be a negative sign and a new low can quickly follow. The next target area is the 5993.00 major Gann square and 78.6% back to the same high at 6027.00.
Below it, the long term target and long term swing point is 38.2% of the same move at 5153.50, this is also a major Gann square. Before then there are two major Gann squares to look for support and then use as the swing point when closed below at 5426.00 and 5283.75.
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We have done 45 videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. These Videos are worth watching even if it is not in the market you are trading, as the ONE44 rules and guidelines are the same for every market. You will also see why we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of ALL markets.
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Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.
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FULL RISK DISCLOSURE: Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Commission Rule 4.41(b)(1)(I) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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