Latest news with #SP500Futures
Globe and Mail
05-04-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
SP 500 Futures Analysis, Our Long Term Target Has Been Hit, 5153.50
SP 500 Futures (ESM25) The chart is key to this analysis. ESM25 From 3/4/25 update, The idea of a long term top from the major Gann square cluster (6102.00/6142.00), 11/30/24 Above it, the long term target area above is 6102.00 to 6142.00. This is a cluster of major Gann squares and the area that a possible longer term top can come from. A failure to... has the potential to take this market back to the long term swing point at 5153.50, this is 38.2% back to the 2022 low and a major Gann square. The Cluster of squares has already turned the market sideways for the last 3 months with very large swings and it doesn't look like that is going to end any time soon. Here are a couple areas before the long term swing point to watch for a quick turn back up. From last week, They had a $280 rally from the long term 23.6% level at 5546.00 on the nearby chart, however as we pointed out in the last update, June is now the lead contract and we would have to watch the 38.2% retracement back to its contract high at 5815.00. It had one close above it (it always needs 2 to violate a key level) and the next day it was right back below it and closed slightly below the 38.2% level on the nearby chart at 5760.00 and the quick break from it has been over $200 so far. A 38.2% retracement should send the market to a new low to keep the current trend intact (ONE44 38.2% rule) and a failure to do so in the area of a 78.6% retracement can be the start of the next Bull run (ONE44 78.6% rule). Having said that, we will be watching the 78.6% retracement on the nearby chart at 5577.00, there is also a major Gann square at 5566.00 for added support. This will be the key area for the next week. Holding this area can send this market sharply higher. It has already hit the 78.6% level on the June chart at 5617.00. A failure to turn higher from this area will have us looking for the long term swing point at 5153.50. Use 5577.00 as the swing point for the week. Above it, the first target on a rally from a 78.6% retracement is 78.6% of where it just came from, with the current low this is 5790.00, it is also the 200 day average. This level will move down with any new low next week. The long..... NOW, It has now hit the long term target of 5153.50 from the cluster of Major Gann squares between 6102.00 and 6142.00 and this week should tell us if the long term trend remains positive despite the recent break, or there is a lot more to come on the downside. To say a lot of things happened in the last few weeks is a massive understatement, especially when looking at the Fibonacci retracements. After holding 23.6% back to the 2022.00 low on 3/13/25 the market rallied to 38.2% back to the ATH on the June contract as mentioned in the updates above at 5815.00, following the ONE44 38.2% rule we would be looking for a new low to keep the current down trend intact, but that we would be watching to see if it failed to make a new low in the area of a 78.6% retracement (5577.00) it hit this on Monday and as we said the first target when using the ONE78.6% rule is 78.6% the other way and that a lower low on Monday would lower that level above. With Mondays low the 78.6% level was 5770.00, this was hit when the first Tariff announcement started and it quickly failed from there. The point is no matter what the fundamental reason is for the market to move it is usually reacting off of Fibonacci retracement, or major Gann squares and a lot of times both. Friday closed below the long term swing that is 38.2% back to the 2022 low and a major Gann square. It will need to close back above it on Monday to keep the long term trend positive and if so following the ONE44 38.2% rule the long term target would be a new ATH. As always we will watch all the retracements on every move to see just how weak, or strong the market is regardless of the long term target. The first test on any rally would be 38.2% back to the ATH at 5496.00, a lower low next week will lower this level. A failure to get back above 5153.50 can send this market 61.8% back to the 2022 low at 4515.00, also a major Gann square. Use 5153.50 as the swing point for the week. Above it, the short term target is 38.2% back to the ATH at 5496.00. The longer term target is 78.6% of the same move at 5940.00. Any rally that can't get above 23.6% at 5335.00 is a very negative sign and a new low can quickly follow. Below it, the long term target is 61.8% back to the 2022 low at 4515.00. Before then there are major Gann squares to look for support and then use as the swing point point when closed below at 5022.25, 4889.50, 4759.25 and 4634.50. We have done 46 videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. These Videos are worth watching even if it is not in the market you are trading, as the ONE44 rules and guidelines are the same for every market. You will also see why we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of ALL markets. Here is the latest. Sign up for free updates for Gold, Crude Oil, SP 500 and Bitcoin here. ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares. If you like this type of analysis and trade the Grain/Livestock futures you can become a Premium Member. You can also follow us on YouTube for more examples of how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. FULL RISK DISCLOSURE: Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Commission Rule 4.41(b)(1)(I) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Globe and Mail
22-03-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
SP 500 Futures Key Levels and Analysis for the Coming Week 3/22/25
SP 500 Futures (ESM25) There are two methods we use at ONE44 to find support and resistance in the markets. The first are major Gann squares, these are the yellow horizontal lines on the chart. On the chart you can see where the market turned multiple times at these levels. The second is Fibonacci retracements and this is what most of this post will be about. There are a few basic rules when using the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. This is the short version. A 38.2% level keeps the trend intact and new highs/lows should follow. A 23.6% level shows the market is extremely strong, or weak. A 61.8% level can send the market 61.8% of where it just can from and cause wide swings keeping the market in a trading range. A 78.6% level can send it 78.6% of where it just came from and even be the end or start of a Bull market. ESM25 From last week, ESH25 Sunday night opened below the 5766.00 swing point for the week and it quickly got down into the next major area of support between the 5566.00 major Gann square and 23.6% back to the 2022 low at 5546.00. It did have one close below 5546.00 on Thursday only to have Friday close back above it after a $100 rally. This key area can send this market back to a new high eventually just as we thought if it held 5766.00. This has been a very large move down from the major Gann square cluster between 6102.00 to 6142.00, however holding a 23.6% retracement (2022 low) is always a very strong sign and the market can quickly get to a new high, or a good test of it, ideally that would be a 78.6% retracement. In the very big picture the long term trend will not be damaged until 38.2% of that same move is taken out and that will be the next major support area if the 5546.00 level fails to turn the market back up. Use 5546.00 as the swing point for the week. The key long term 23.6% level back to the 2022 low at 5546.00 has produced a $200 rally so far. The front contract is now June, This week it hit 38.2% at 5760.00 on the continuation chart a few times, so we will also watch what 38.2% is on the June chart. This level is 5815.00, a trade up to this area and a close back below 38.2% on the continuation chart at 5760.00 can quickly send this market back to the low. The idea of a run back at the highs from the 23.6% level at 5546.00 remains intact until this level is taken out. All of the key levels Above/Below on the continuation remain the same except for the 200 day average that is now 5781.00. Use 5546.00 as the swing point for the week again. Above it, the first test of the strength of any rally will be 38.2% back to the 2/19/25 high at 5760.00, the 200 day average is also right there at 5781.00, failing to get above this area after holding a key long term retracement (5546.00) would be a negative sign and a new low can quickly follow. The next target area is the 5993.00 major Gann square and 78.6% back to the same high at 6027.00. Below it, the long term target and long term swing point is 38.2% of the same move at 5153.50, this is also a major Gann square. Before then there are two major Gann squares to look for support and then use as the swing point when closed below at 5426.00 and 5283.75. . We have done 45 videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. These Videos are worth watching even if it is not in the market you are trading, as the ONE44 rules and guidelines are the same for every market. You will also see why we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of ALL markets. Here is the latest. Sign up for free updates for Gold, Crude Oil, SP 500 and Bitcoin here. ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares. If you like this type of analysis and trade the Grain/Livestock futures you can become a Premium Member. You can also follow us on YouTube for more examples of how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. FULL RISK DISCLOSURE: Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Commission Rule 4.41(b)(1)(I) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Globe and Mail
16-03-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
SP 500 Futures Key Levels and Analysis for the Coming Week 3/16/25
SP 500 Futures The chart is key to this analysis. (ESH25) ESH25 From last week, The high that happened last Sunday night traded above 5969.00 (38.2%), but never closed above it. The break from it hit the short term target area of 5766.00 (38.2%) and the 200 day average at 5752.00 and it rallied $100 from there. It failed to get even close to the new 38.2% level back to the ATH and it collapsed again and closed below 5766.00 on Thursday. On Friday it traded down through the 5706.00 major Gann square and then closed back above 5766.00 and the 200 day average that is now 5765.00. As always one close below a key level is okay as long as the next day it is right back above it as it just did. The spike down on Friday and the big rally that followed looks a lot like the 8/5/24 low when it traded well below 23.6% back to the 2022 low and then closed above it, what followed was a $600 rally and eventually on to a new high. Holding 5766.00 (38.2%) can have a similar effect. A rally from here can send it to 78.6% back to the ATH, we will also be watching 38.2%, as a failure to get above it can send it quickly lower. Use 5766.00 as the swing point for the week. Below it, the short term target area is the 5566.00 major Gann square and 23.6% back to the 2022 low at 5546.00. The long term.... Sunday night opened below the 5766.00 swing point for the week and it quickly got down into the next major area of support between the 5566.00 major Gann square and 23.6% back to the 2022 low at 5546.00. It did have one close below 5546.00 on Thursday only to have Friday close back above it after a $100 rally. This key area can send this market back to a new high eventually just as we thought if it held 5766.00. This has been a very large move down from the major Gann square cluster between 6102.00 to 6142.00, however holding a 23.6% retracement (2022 low) is always a very strong sign and the market can quickly get to a new high, or a good test of it, ideally that would be a 78.6% retracement. In the very big picture the long term trend will not be damaged until 38.2% of that same move is taken out and that will be the next major support area if the 5546.00 level fails to turn the market back up. Use 5546.00 as the swing point for the week. Above it, the first test of the strength of any rally will be 38.2% back to the 2/19/25 high at 5760.00, the 200 day average is also right there at 5771.00, failing to get above this area after holding a key long term retracement (5546.00) would be a negative sign and a new low can quickly follow. The next target area is the 5993.00 major Gann square and 78.6% back to the same high at 6027.00. Below it, the long term target and long term swing point is 38.2% of the same move at 5153.50, this is also a major Gann square. Before then there are two major Gann squares to look for support and then use as the swing point when closed below at 5426.00 and 5283.75. . We have done 45 videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. These Videos are worth watching even if it is not in the market you are trading, as the ONE44 rules and guidelines are the same for every market. You will also see why we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of ALL markets. Here is the latest. Sign up for free updates for Gold, Crude Oil, SP 500 and Bitcoin here. ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares. If you like this type of analysis and trade the Grain/Livestock futures you can become a Premium Member. You can also follow us on YouTube for more examples of how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. FULL RISK DISCLOSURE: Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Commission Rule 4.41(b)(1)(I) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Globe and Mail
23-02-2025
- Business
- Globe and Mail
SP 500 Futures Key Levels & Analysis
SP 500 Futures (ESH25) The chart below is key to this analysis. There are two methods we use at ONE44 to find support and resistance in the markets. The first are major Gann squares, these are the yellow horizontal lines on the chart. On the chart you can see where the market turned multiple times at these levels. The second is Fibonacci retracements and this is what most of this post will be about. There are a few basic rules when using the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. This is the short version. A 38.2% level keeps the trend intact and new highs/lows should follow. A 23.6% level shows the market is extremely strong, or weak. A 61.8% level can cause wide swings and keep the market in a trading range. A 78.6% level can send it 78.6% of where it just came from and even be the end or start of a Bull market. ESH25 From last week, They started the week sharply lower, but failed to even get down to the 5993.00 major Gann square, keeping the trend extremely positive. The rally from there took it right back to the 6142.00 major Gann square, this will again be the key level for next week. Use 6142.00 as the swing point for the week again. The cluster of major Gann squares continues to be a very tough area to get through. It had a couple minor closes above 6142.00 and once back below it another sharp break has happened. We will see if this is the one that really takes the market lower. We will be watching all the levels below to see just how weak, or strong the market is, starting with the 5993.00 major Gann square. If this break is for real it should stay below 38.2% back to the 2/19/25 high, with Friday's low this is 6080.00 and it will be the key level for the week. You will have to adjust this level with every new low. With only a slightly higher high all the levels Above/Below remain the same. Use 6080.00 as the swing point for the week. Above it, with all the sideways trade for the last 3 months, once above 6142.00 it should go on another run higher. The short term targets are the next major Gann squares at 6290.75 and 6443.00. The long term target is the next cluster of major Gann squares at 7100.00. Below it, the idea of a longer term top from the cluster of major Gann squares is still intact as long as it remains below 6142.00. With it getting close to 23.6% at 5915.00 the short term target is now 38.2% of the same move at 5763.00. The long term target area is the 5566.00 major Gann square and 23.6% back to the 2022 low at 5530.00. The long term swing point remains at 5150.00. Any setback that can't close below the 5993.00 major Gann square keeps the trend extremely positive. We have done 45 videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. These Videos are worth watching even if it is not in the market you are trading, as the ONE44 rules and guidelines are the same for every market. You will also see why we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of ALL markets. ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares. If you like this type of analysis and trade the Grain/Livestock futures you can become a Premium Member. You can also follow us on YouTube for more examples of how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. FULL RISK DISCLOSURE: Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Commission Rule 4.41(b)(1)(I) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
