SP 500 Futures Analysis, Our Long Term Target Has Been Hit, 5153.50
SP 500 Futures
(ESM25)
The chart is key to this analysis.
ESM25
From 3/4/25 update,
The idea of a long term top from the major Gann square cluster (6102.00/6142.00),
11/30/24
Above it, the long term target area above is 6102.00 to 6142.00. This is a cluster of major Gann squares and the area that a possible longer term top can come from. A failure to...
has the potential to take this market back to the long term swing point at 5153.50, this is 38.2% back to the 2022 low and a major Gann square. The Cluster of squares has already turned the market sideways for the last 3 months with very large swings and it doesn't look like that is going to end any time soon. Here are a couple areas before the long term swing point to watch for a quick turn back up.
From last week,
They had a $280 rally from the long term 23.6% level at 5546.00 on the nearby chart, however as we pointed out in the last update, June is now the lead contract and we would have to watch the 38.2% retracement back to its contract high at 5815.00. It had one close above it (it always needs 2 to violate a key level) and the next day it was right back below it and closed slightly below the 38.2% level on the nearby chart at 5760.00 and the quick break from it has been over $200 so far.
A 38.2% retracement should send the market to a new low to keep the current trend intact (ONE44 38.2% rule) and a failure to do so in the area of a 78.6% retracement can be the start of the next Bull run (ONE44 78.6% rule). Having said that, we will be watching the 78.6% retracement on the nearby chart at 5577.00, there is also a major Gann square at 5566.00 for added support. This will be the key area for the next week. Holding this area can send this market sharply higher. It has already hit the 78.6% level on the June chart at 5617.00. A failure to turn higher from this area will have us looking for the long term swing point at 5153.50.
Use 5577.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, the first target on a rally from a 78.6% retracement is 78.6% of where it just came from, with the current low this is 5790.00, it is also the 200 day average. This level will move down with any new low next week. The long.....
NOW,
It has now hit the long term target of 5153.50 from the cluster of Major Gann squares between 6102.00 and 6142.00 and this week should tell us if the long term trend remains positive despite the recent break, or there is a lot more to come on the downside.
To say a lot of things happened in the last few weeks is a massive understatement, especially when looking at the Fibonacci retracements.
After holding 23.6% back to the 2022.00 low on 3/13/25 the market rallied to 38.2% back to the ATH on the June contract as mentioned in the updates above at 5815.00, following the ONE44 38.2% rule we would be looking for a new low to keep the current down trend intact, but that we would be watching to see if it failed to make a new low in the area of a 78.6% retracement (5577.00) it hit this on Monday and as we said the first target when using the ONE78.6% rule is 78.6% the other way and that a lower low on Monday would lower that level above. With Mondays low the 78.6% level was 5770.00, this was hit when the first Tariff announcement started and it quickly failed from there. The point is no matter what the fundamental reason is for the market to move it is usually reacting off of Fibonacci retracement, or major Gann squares and a lot of times both.
Friday closed below the long term swing that is 38.2% back to the 2022 low and a major Gann square. It will need to close back above it on Monday to keep the long term trend positive and if so following the ONE44 38.2% rule the long term target would be a new ATH. As always we will watch all the retracements on every move to see just how weak, or strong the market is regardless of the long term target. The first test on any rally would be 38.2% back to the ATH at 5496.00, a lower low next week will lower this level. A failure to get back above 5153.50 can send this market 61.8% back to the 2022 low at 4515.00, also a major Gann square.
Use 5153.50 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, the short term target is 38.2% back to the ATH at 5496.00. The longer term target is 78.6% of the same move at 5940.00. Any rally that can't get above 23.6% at 5335.00 is a very negative sign and a new low can quickly follow.
Below it, the long term target is 61.8% back to the 2022 low at 4515.00. Before then there are major Gann squares to look for support and then use as the swing point point when closed below at 5022.25, 4889.50, 4759.25 and 4634.50.
We have done 46 videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. These Videos are worth watching even if it is not in the market you are trading, as the ONE44 rules and guidelines are the same for every market. You will also see why we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of ALL markets.
Here is the latest.
Sign up for free updates for Gold, Crude Oil, SP 500 and Bitcoin here.
ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point
Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.
If you like this type of analysis and trade the Grain/Livestock futures you can become a Premium Member.
You can also follow us on YouTube for more examples of how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.
FULL RISK DISCLOSURE: Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Commission Rule 4.41(b)(1)(I) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Globe and Mail
06-05-2025
- Globe and Mail
Natural Gas Slowed Down For A Correction Within Uptrend
Natural gas slowed down recently, but despite that retracement, we see it as an ABC correction after a potential leading diagonal formation from the lows. It actually stopped perfectly at the former wave 2 swing low,. 61,8% Fibonacci and 3.0 support area, from where we may now see a bullish continuation, especially if it recovers back above 4.15 bullish confirmation level. For more analysis like this of stocks, forex, cryptos and commodities, you may want to watch below our latest recording of a live webinar streamed on May 05 2025:
Globe and Mail
05-05-2025
- Globe and Mail
Gold, Miners, Commodity Investors: Watch Out for Those Reversals!
The U.S. nonfarm payroll statistics were just released. They were better than expected, but overall well within the previous range of values – nothing to write home about. Markets' reaction was relatively small and in perfect tune with the technical patterns that I had already described previously. Gold price corrected a bit after breaking below the previous intraday lows. This consolidation is normal, and it's unlikely to result in any meaningful rebound as no major support level was reached (except for the early April high which was almost reached). Everything that I wrote about gold price forecast for May 2025 remains up-to-date. More importantly, however, the USD Index (to the rally of which gold reacted by sliding) didn't encounter any particular resistance level. In fact, it seems that after the current pullback its price will rally once again. This pullback is completely natural, as the USDX just completed its inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. Corrections after those are common. And since the USDX just bottomed very close to the triangle-vertex-based reversal, it seems that the bottom here is in or about to be in. This, in turn suggests that the corrective upswing in gold and silver is about to be over. The same is likely for the stock market, which is likely also connected to the reversal in the USD Index, but in stocks' case, there's more to that. As I explained yesterday, the stock market has its own triangle-vertex-based reversal point due early next week. Consequently, the current pause after a rally is quite natural. We're still likely to get a (likely big) move lower next week. Besides, the decline in copper already indicated what's likely next for stocks – it moves quite closely with the S&P 500, and it already declined significantly this week. The invalidation of the move above the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci retracement levels along with copper's strong tendency to form major tops in early May strongly favors big declines in the following weeks. Those, who don't know about this tendency might believe copper's rebound or even FCX's (or other copper stocks' strength) here. But you know that it's all fake. It's a gimmick. A final shakeout of those making emotional purchase decisions. In the previous weeks, I wrote a lot about the links between now and 2008. While the history rhymes instead of being repeated to the letter, but sometimes the market does repeat its performance on important anniversaries. And please note that the final top in copper in 2008 was formed on May 5. If this was to be repeated, we'd be looking for the final top to take place on the next trading session – on Monday. This would be in perfect tune with stock market's triangle-vertex-based reversal and with the fact that the USD Index is likely to rally shortly. Meanwhile, mining stocks provided us with a huge 'things are changing' signal of their own. Namely, the GDXJ just closed below the highest close of 2020! This is a major invalidation and a clear sell signal. Quoting my yesterday's comments: 'This is significant, because the highest daily close of 2020 was $59.58. This means, that GDXJ could invalidate the breakout above this high in terms of daily closing prices as early as today. The lowest weekly close of 2020 was $56.69, so if we were to get this week's close below that, the invalidation would be perfect. And that's exactly what we're likely to get – if not this week, then in the next of the following weeks. Given gold's momentum, and – most importantly – USD Index's likely final bottom, it seems that we won't have to wait long for this invalidation. And the invalidation itself would serve as a gateway to much lower prices in the following weeks. My best bet right now is that we'll get the above-mentioned invalidation in terms of the weekly closing prices next week. The reason is the situation on the stock market.' Thank you for reading the above free analysis. If you'd like to access my complete premium analysis, including specific technical targets for FCX (even options) and silver, detailed analysis of mining stocks, and comprehensive portfolio insights, consider subscribing to my Gold Trading Alerts or – if you want the best – our Diamond Package. If you're not ready to subscribe yet, I invite you to stay updated with our free analyses - sign up for our free gold newsletter now. Thank you.
Globe and Mail
04-05-2025
- Globe and Mail
Grain/Livestock Overview & New ONE44 Video on Fibonacci Retracements
Grain/Livestock Overview The charts are key to this analysis. We hope to show you why the Fibonacci retracement should be a key part of your analysis. The link to our new video on how to use the Fibonacci retracement with the ONE44 rules and guidelines is below. Grains (ZCK25) (ZSK25) (ZWK25) Nearby Corn has been trading between 61.8% retracements, first on 2/19/25 and 3/4/25 and then again on 4/11/25 and 4/29/25. You can also see on the chart where every low after 8/26/24 has held a key Fibonacci retracement as well as the highs. This is the short version of the ONE44 61.8% rule, Whenever the market holds 61.8% of a move, look for it to go 61.8% of where it just came from. This usually happens when a market is directionless, or in a consolidation period. We are now looking for it to go 61.8% back at 479.00. In Nearby Soybeans the longer term trend has been down marked by highs at 1102.00 on 9/27/24 at 23.6% and again on 2/5/25 when it hit a combination of 23.6% and 38.2% at 1091.00 along with the 1083.75 major Gann square. The current rally started at 78.6% and the 977.75 major Gann square. This week's setback held 38.2% at 1025.00 keeping the short term trend positive. We are looking for new highs and the 1083.75 major Gann square. Wheat Nearby has been unable to get anything going to the upside and has been stopped at 38.2% retracements on 10/2/24, 2/18/25, 3/17/25 and the last one on 4/11/25 at 556.00 keeping the trend negative until it can take out a 38.2% retracement. This is the short version of the ONE44 38.2% rule, 38.2% is the single most important retracement and is the level we use for the " Golden Rule". This rule being, " any market that is going to keep its current trend must hold 38.2%". As long as it does the trend will continue and it should make new highs/lows from that retracement. Use the 522.75 major Gann square as the swing point for the week. Above it, look for 38.2% at 550.00. Below it, look for the 493.50 major Gann square. Livestock (LEM25) (GFK25) Cattle's last setback held the long term swing point at 38.2% back to the 8/21/24 low at 193.50 and the 192.32 major Gann square. Until it can take out 38.2% back to the 4/9/25 low the trend remains extremely positive. Feeder Cattle also held the long term swing point that was 38.2% back to the 9/9/24 low at 266.90 and following the ONE44 38.2% rule it went on to a new high to keep the trend positive. We have done 47 videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. These Videos are worth watching even if it is not in the market you are trading, as the ONE44 rules and guidelines are the same for every market. You will also see why we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of ALL markets. Here is the latest. ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares. If you like this type of analysis and trade the Grain/Livestock futures you can become a Premium Member. You can also follow us on YouTube for more examples of how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. Sign up for our Free newsletter here. FULL RISK DISCLOSURE: Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Commission Rule 4.41(b)(1)(I) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
