SP 500 Futures Key Levels and Analysis for the Coming Week 3/22/25
SP 500 Futures
(ESM25)
There are two methods we use at ONE44 to find support and resistance in the markets.
The first are major Gann squares, these are the yellow horizontal lines on the chart. On the chart you can see where the market turned multiple times at these levels.
The second is Fibonacci retracements and this is what most of this post will be about.
There are a few basic rules when using the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.
This is the short version.
A 38.2% level keeps the trend intact and new highs/lows should follow.
A 23.6% level shows the market is extremely strong, or weak.
A 61.8% level can send the market 61.8% of where it just can from and cause wide swings keeping the market in a trading range.
A 78.6% level can send it 78.6% of where it just came from and even be the end or start of a Bull market.
ESM25
From last week,
ESH25
Sunday night opened below the 5766.00 swing point for the week and it quickly got down into the next major area of support between the 5566.00 major Gann square and 23.6% back to the 2022 low at 5546.00. It did have one close below 5546.00 on Thursday only to have Friday close back above it after a $100 rally. This key area can send this market back to a new high eventually just as we thought if it held 5766.00. This has been a very large move down from the major Gann square cluster between 6102.00 to 6142.00, however holding a 23.6% retracement (2022 low) is always a very strong sign and the market can quickly get to a new high, or a good test of it, ideally that would be a 78.6% retracement. In the very big picture the long term trend will not be damaged until 38.2% of that same move is taken out and that will be the next major support area if the 5546.00 level fails to turn the market back up.
Use 5546.00 as the swing point for the week.
The key long term 23.6% level back to the 2022 low at 5546.00 has produced a $200 rally so far. The front contract is now June, This week it hit 38.2% at 5760.00 on the continuation chart a few times, so we will also watch what 38.2% is on the June chart. This level is 5815.00, a trade up to this area and a close back below 38.2% on the continuation chart at 5760.00 can quickly send this market back to the low. The idea of a run back at the highs from the 23.6% level at 5546.00 remains intact until this level is taken out. All of the key levels Above/Below on the continuation remain the same except for the 200 day average that is now 5781.00.
Use 5546.00 as the swing point for the week again.
Above it, the first test of the strength of any rally will be 38.2% back to the 2/19/25 high at 5760.00, the 200 day average is also right there at 5781.00, failing to get above this area after holding a key long term retracement (5546.00) would be a negative sign and a new low can quickly follow. The next target area is the 5993.00 major Gann square and 78.6% back to the same high at 6027.00.
Below it, the long term target and long term swing point is 38.2% of the same move at 5153.50, this is also a major Gann square. Before then there are two major Gann squares to look for support and then use as the swing point when closed below at 5426.00 and 5283.75.
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We have done 45 videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. These Videos are worth watching even if it is not in the market you are trading, as the ONE44 rules and guidelines are the same for every market. You will also see why we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of ALL markets.
Here is the latest.
Sign up for free updates for Gold, Crude Oil, SP 500 and Bitcoin here.
ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point
Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.
If you like this type of analysis and trade the Grain/Livestock futures you can become a Premium Member.
You can also follow us on YouTube for more examples of how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.
FULL RISK DISCLOSURE: Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Commission Rule 4.41(b)(1)(I) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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