Who will be the fantasy football RB1? Using trends to identify 4 candidates
In 2003, 13 running backs garnered at least 310 attempts. That's the same number we've had in the last 12 seasons combined. As a consequence, attempting to predict the top of fantasy football running back rankings can be more frustrating than contract negotiations with Jerry Jones.
Since LaDainian Tomlinson accomplished the feat in '06 and '07, only one player has finished as fantasy's overall RB1 in consecutive seasons -- Todd Gurley in '17 and '18. In fact, here's how the last 10 top running back finishers have placed the following seasons:
Yuck. The "RB1 Curse" might be more lethal than the "Madden Curse."
One housekeeping item before we dive in. While the goal of this exercise is to come up with a short list of candidates to finish as the overall RB1 in 2025, that is not the sole purpose. We'll also be looking to unearth common denominators among the elite fantasy producers, apply them to this year's crop of backs, and identify the players who fit the criteria.
For this exercise, we'll be digging into what the last 20 overall RB1s did the season before they finished atop the fantasy world.
Who will be the top fantasy football running back in 2025?
Here are the trends that will help us narrow the pool to a total of four candidates. (Note: All fantasy point references are half-PPR unless noted otherwise.)
28 — No running back older than 27 years old has finished as the overall RB1 since LaDainian Tomlinson way back in 2007. Some notable backs who don't fit that threshold: Saquon Barkley (28), Christian McCaffrey (29), Derrick Henry (31), and Alvin Kamara (30).
40 — Over the last 20 seasons, not a single back with an Average Draft Position (ADP) outside the top 40 at his position has finished as the overall RB1.
0.7 — Of the last 20 top running back finishers, 17 averaged more than 0.7 fantasy points per touch the previous season. In other words, look for players who produced in bunches when the ball was in their hands. Seems reasonable.
4.8 — On the topic of producing with they had the opportunity, 16 of the last 20 overall RB1s averaged at least 4.8 yards per touch the season before.
0.3 — While snap counts in the preceding season varied greatly among the last 20 RB1s, what they did with those snaps didn't. Sixteen of the 20 averaged at least 0.3 fantasy points per touch.
23 — This might be stating the obvious, but to have RB1 overall upside, a back needs to be utilized in the passing game. In our sample, 18 of the 20 players had at least 23 receptions the season before they were the RB1. Two players currently have an ADP inside the top 10 at the position but didn't haul in 23 catches: Derrick Henry (19) and Jonathan Taylor (18).
0 — In the last 30 years, zero rookie running backs have finished as the overall RB1. Saquon Barkley came within 2.3 half-PPR points of bucking that trend in 2018, but he was the lone anomaly in at least three decades. To put it another way, the RB1 is unlikely to be Ashton Jeanty.
330 — Ray Rice in 2011 was the only one of the last 17 RB1s to total more than 343 touches the season before. Fifteen of the last 17 had fewer than 330 regular-season touches. That doesn't bode well for five backs with a top-12 ADP at the position: Saquon Barkley (378), Bijan Robinson (365), Kyren Williams (350), Derrick Henry (344), and Josh Jacobs (337).
Historical running back workload trends
Since 2010, 42 running backs have totaled at least 337 touches in a season. Here are a couple of noteworthy trends. (Le'Veon Bell's 2018 season is excluded since he sat out.)
113.9 — Those backs totaled, on average, 113.9 fewer PPR points the following season. More than two-thirds (31) of those players saw their overall production drop by at least 18% and half experienced total point declines of 33% or more.
3.9 — It wasn't just that the heavy workloads led to missed action. Even when those players did suit up, production dropped by an average of 3.9 PPR points per game. Two-thirds of the backs endured per-game declines of more than 10%.
These five running backs garnered at least 337 touches last season: Saquon Barkley (378), Bijan Robinson (365), Kyren Williams (350), Derrick Henry (344), and Josh Jacobs (337).
So who are the fantasy football RB1 candidates?
Here are the four players who checked all the boxes (ranked in order of positional ADP):
Top fantasy football running back sleepers
These three backs missed the cutoff in receptions and ADP but hit all other benchmarks. Consider them my favorite late-round dart throws.
Some final notes
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