Pro-Kremlin Russian Military Correspondent Yurii Kotenok: 'It's Very Likely That After Iran, They Will Be After... Us!'

Memri

5 hours ago

Pro-Kremlin Russian military correspondent Yuri Petrovich Kotenok, whose Telegram channel has over 360,000 subscribers, analyzed the Iran-Israel war. In his Telegram posts, Kotenok stated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) proved impotent in matters of defense. He then added: "Provided the world plan-maker goes further, trying to change the [Iranian] regime, it's very likely that after Iran they will be after... us! The temptation is great – Russia is encircled.'
Russian military correspondent Yuri Petrovich Kotenok. (Source: Tsargrad TV)
The following is a translation of Kotenok's Telegram posts:[1]
"The IRGC... Has Proved Impotent In Matters Of Defense"
"1. Iran is trying to respond to Israel, but the enemy methodically destroys not just military infrastructure, but infrastructure in general. An analysis of military actions between Israel and Iran evidence that Tehran, surprisingly, did not invest in air defence, did not build it, however, as well as the Air Force. Iran was investing in missiles.
"2. It appears that Israel, contrary to the media, has not yet succeeded in destroying the stockpile of Iranian missiles (warehouses) that was accumulated over the past years. It is difficult to reach them [hidden] in the rocks. Israelis try to block the entrances to missile stockpiles carved in mountains with strikes; they also hit teams trying to clear the rubble in the adits.
"3. There is a roughly similar case with the very same nuclear facilities. The main ones have not been destroyed by the enemy. Provided the Zionists cannot not reach the target, they carry out accompanying strikes: They take down electricity [systems] to block the facility, curb its operational possibility, etc.
"4. There is no evidence of Iran's air defense system working. Perhaps the military bureaucracy is to blame for all of this and/or, considering the example of the gaps in Tehran's defense, the idiocy of the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps], which grabbed all the functions of the state, from selling [illegal] drugs to providing security for the elites and cities. Tehran was guarded only by the IRGC, and now Tehran has to endure [the Israeli strikes]... IRGC, this omnipotent structure, which infiltrated all institutions of the country's economic and political life, has proved impotent in matters of defense.
"5. Meanwhile, Iran continues to launch missiles, showing that it has the power and means to terrify Israel, which gives Iran credit.
"6. Iran's saturation with Zionist agents, which are involved [in Israel's operation] has its effect. Unfortunately, Iran turned out to be not ready for war, having lost the support of Hizbullah and Hamas. The very same Houthis, possessing territory and forces much smaller than Iran, managed to build a system [of operations], fought and 'bit' to the last and, in general, remained with what they had. Despite the fact that two U.S. carrier strike groups and some of their allies were fighting them. Both even suffered some losses."
"If The Iranian Regime Collapses, A Monstrous Migration Blow Will Be Dealt To Armenia, Azerbaijan, And Through Them, No Doubt, To Russia"
"7. If Iran were willing to fight to the last man, like the Houthis, to inflict defeat on the enemy, coordinating strikes across the Iranian network, the situation would look different by now. The problem is that Tehran has buried this network with its own hands over the last two to three years – it allowed Hamas and Hizbullah to be defeated and the Assad regime to fall. Unfortunately, the IRGC is to blame for this too. This power structure has infiltrated all institutions of political and economic life, trying to pass all political and non-political solutions, and as a result has drowned in its own bureaucracy. And now the losses in the army and navy are far from that of the IRGC. And the army continues to strike Israel.
"8. Trump has claimed that [Israel's] dominance has been established in Iranian airspace. It is very likely that the US will directly participate in the conflict, conducting strikes because Iran's air force has been virtually destroyed. We can with high probability expect an attempt at regime change in Iran. Trump is already demanding capitulation.
"9. With such tendencies, Iran will be defeated. And the situation, in my opinion, will not be changed by Pakistan's promises to intervene in the conflict. So far, with our very eyes we see attempts at dismantling China's main asset – Iran.
"10. If the Iranian regime collapses, a monstrous migration blow will be dealt to Armenia, Azerbaijan, and through them, no doubt, to Russia.
"11. Provided the world plan-maker goes further, trying to change the [Iranian] regime, it is very likely that after Iran they will be after... us! The temptation is great – Russia is encircled. They will subvert the internal situation, creating challenges and threats along the border. They will try to continuously penetrate the border in batches of several tens of thousands of refugees. This will lead to excesses at the border territories, which will resonate throughout the country.
"12. There is nothing good that the ancient Persian civilization is being crushed before our eyes. It is the most intelligent, softest, the most non-confrontational of Muslim civilizations with the deepest history. The state in which it now exists is in danger of collapse. Unfortunately, Iran has practically no moves left that could confound the enemy. Joint missile attacks, on which Tehran was counting, are currently only possible with the help of Yemen, and even then, will have a limited scale. At the moment, Iran can do little, alas... only fight to the last..."