Netflix shares drop as revenue forecast leaves investors unimpressed

CNA

18-07-2025

Netflix shares declined more than 5 per cent in early trading on Friday, as investors were disappointed by the streaming giant's revenue forecast raise being driven by a weaker dollar instead of strong customer demand.
The stock has nearly doubled in value in the last 12 months, pushing Netflix's market value above $540 billion, more than the combined worth of Disney, Comcast, and Warner Bros. Discovery.
The streaming platform on Thursday raised its 2025 revenue outlook and expects to be in the range of $44.8 billion to $45.2 billion, broadly helped by a weaker dollar, compared to its previous forecast range of $43.5 billion to $44.5 billion.
"Better-than-expected quarterly results and upgraded full-year revenue and cash flow guidance weren't enough to keep investors happy," said Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell.
Investors were disappointed because the improved revenue outlook was driven by foreign exchange factors rather than stronger customer demand, Coatsworth said.
Disappointment over the forecast overshadowed a quarterly profit beat that was fueled by the success of the final season of 'Squid Game'.
Netflix shares, which have gained about 43 per cent so far this year, currently trade at 43.8 times the estimates of its earnings for the next 12 months, compared with Disney's 19.57 and Comcast's 7.71."The muted response to Netflix's share price... may be down to its lofty valuation," said Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB.
With subscriber growth slowing after the pandemic-era surge, Netflix has shifted its focus to ramping up advertising revenue to reshape its business model.
The company is expanding its ad-supported tiers, implementing targeted ad placements, and working on live sports events to attract advertisers.
"As Netflix ramps up its advertising revenues combined with underlying strength in the core business, we see a strong runway to drive higher monetization of its engagement," analysts at MoffettNathanson said. At least 16 analysts raised their price targets on the stock following results, bringing the median target to $1,365, as per data complied by LSEG.