Coby Mayo, Brooks Lee and others with better playing time opportunities after MLB trade deadline

New York Times

a day ago

After the dust settles on a frantic trade deadline, much of the attention is on the buyers. Who added the most talent? Who's got the best bullpen now? Who won the trade deadline?
Sometimes, the real winners of the trade deadline appear in the shadow left behind. With win-now talent out the door, sellers suddenly can offer the lion's share of playing time to young players to see what they've got. There's opportunity here, and that's half the battle for players trying to establish their bonafides as major leaguers.
So let's look at the rosters on the trade deadline sellers and see which young players have a new lease on life. Some of them may get so good they'll be traded for in future deadlines.
So far, Mayo has been hovering around league average with the bat, but that's laudable for a couple of reasons. One reason is that he's been playing sporadically. The last week or so he's been in the lineup pretty regularly, but for the season he's been up and down between Triple A and the big leagues and in and out of the lineup. The flurry of trades in Baltimore should allow him to play for the Orioles every day, full stop, and maybe even at third base to figure out if he can be the future there.
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The other reason his league-average production has been good so far is that it's come with a better strikeout rate than you might have expected given his minor-league numbers, and not quite the top-end exit velocities he's put up in the past. Let him get settled, and the (already decent) Barrel rate will go up, and the power should show. He can hit around .240 to .250 with 30 home run-type power without changing much of what he's doing under the hood.
Among pitchers with 40 innings, Rodríguez has the eighth-best stuff in baseball right now. He has the second-best strikeout-minus-walk rate in baseball, right behind Josh Hader. He throws a 97-mph fastball and an 86-mph slider and they both have good shapes. He has good enough command, and he's been used in save situations. He's probably who the Giants hoped Camilo Doval would be — he's probably better than Doval right now and will likely have a chance to take his place in the ninth inning for the Giants now that Doval is a Yankee.
The Giants won't miss a beat at closer with Rodríguez behind the wheel — but they may get him fewer chances, given they traded some other pieces away that would have helped the team win games. But Rodríguez is immediately a top-10 closer on talent alone.
Offensively, the upside for Brooks Lee is not as easy to see as it is for Mayo. Lee doesn't have the same bat speed, top-end exit velocities or Barrel rates as Mayo, so we aren't waiting for a ton more power. And the defensive metrics don't say that Lee will be a top-end defender at shortstop, either. But he's split time at second and third, the samples are still pretty small to believe those metrics at face value, and now he has the chance to make his case as the starting shortstop for his team with Carlos Correa now in Houston. He can make good contact, and spray the ball around with just below-average power, so he might be able to push that batting average into the .275 range, with the type of power and speed that would give him 12-15 homers and five-plus steals over a full season.
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If Jack Perkins was a qualified starter, he'd slot in-between Framber Valdez and Dylan Cease in terms of Stuff+. He's got a uniquely shaped fastball with good velocity, a great sweeper, a plus changeup and a decent cutter, all from a low slot. The stuff is good. The command might not be. Among the 540 pitchers with at least 10 innings this year, his location numbers are 28th-worst. It's almost all relievers around him. Which… OK, maybe he's the A's new closer, that job is open too. With Mason Miller and J.P. Sears now in San Diego, there are a couple avenues in front of Perkins, who was a starter in the minors but has already racked up three saves in a long relief role in the majors. His stuff makes him viable in a couple different ways. It's a shame about his home park, though.
The A's are reportedly calling up another high-end young pitching talent who has history as both a starter and a reliever, right-hander Luis Morales. Like Perkins, Morales will have opportunities that wouldn't have been there had the A's not traded away Miller and Sears.
At some point, the Twins' rotation will get healthier. David Festa, Pablo López and Bailey Ober will pitch again for them this year, probably. And when that happens, there will be a game of musical chairs, and Abel will likely end up in the minor leagues again. But for now, there's a need in the Twins' rotation, and Abel's stuff is electric. A 96-mph four-seamer with plus ride given his lower arm slot, plus a high-80s gyro slider, and a low 80s bigger curveball is a great foundation. The Phillies also made sure to give him two fastballs, and hey, even his changeup rates well.
He's gotten poor prospect grades for his command in the past, but his location numbers weren't a problem so far this year. He's absolutely going to be interesting if he gets some starts for the Twins over the next few weeks, especially since the Twins are an underrated team for pitching development.
Everyone wants to know when Samuel Basallo, Keith Law's No. 8 MLB prospect, will get his chance in the big leagues, but Adley Rutschman is still in town. It's not impossible that they bring Basallo up just to get him major-league at-bats, but the Orioles lineup's biggest need after sending out Cedric Mullins and Ryan O'Hearn is probably at least somewhat outfield-heavy. Beavers hasn't played as much center as corner outfield this year in the minors, but he can back up Colton Cowser in a pinch. Fantasy leaguers will like that Beavers makes contact, hits for power and also steals bases. Law has questioned Beavers' hit tool, but this has been Beavers' best year in terms of batting average and strikeout rate, so maybe he's improved some there. Looks like a guy that could hit .250 with 20 homers and 30 steals.
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The margins for a 24-year-old first-base-only right-handed hitter are razor thin. The few righties at the position that have made it through to free agency have had to be great hitters, not just good ones. And Locklear might just be a good hitter. His contact rates are OK but not great, his strikeout rate is good right now but has been worse in the past, his upper-end exit velocities are decent but his in-game power has fluctuated. If he puts it all together for his new team, he could be a .240-hitting first baseman with 20+ homers and 10+ steals, an interesting package at the position. He's no lock to put up that production, but at least he's got some runway the rest of the season.
As a 25-year-old outfielder with modest bat speed and poor batted ball numbers so far in the big leagues, Roden was expendable to the Blue Jays, perhaps. But given his plus sprint speed, plus arm strength, and great plate discipline and contact rates in the majors and minors, he was interesting enough to the Twins, who did more selling than was perhaps anticipated.
They sold so much that James Outman, who came over from the Dodgers for Brock Stewart, may also get a shot in the outfield, and Kody Clemens may get some time at first base. Outman has the best bat speed and power upside, Clemens the second best. But Roden is the most polished at the plate, so the bet is he gets the most playing time, and can hit as well as .260 with a good on-base percentage and approach league-average power.
Of course at some point, Emmanuel Rodriguez will be healthy and complicate matters.
Félix Bautista's shoulder is so inflamed they have to wait a while to image it again. Seranthony Domínguez and Andrew Kittredge are gone in trades. Corbin Martin got the Orioles' last save, but Cano has gotten opportunities in the past, has better stuff and has been around for a while in Baltimore. He'll at least get chances if not get anointed the closer for the Orioles the rest of the way.
JoJo Romero is still in town and has had better results than O'Brien this year, so maybe Romero just the Cardinals' closer the rest of the way. But fastball velocity is strongly correlated with saves, and managers tend to prefer righty closers, so O'Brien could easily slip in with his 98-mph fastball and take this job. At the least, it's probably a co-closer situation in St. Louis the rest of the way.
The Giants took a short-term package from the Mets for Tyler Rogers, and may end up putting all three pieces on the field this season. Drew Gilbert has to be put on the 40-man roster this offseason, so they might as well do it now and see if he can help in the outfield. José Buttó is going right into the Giants' bullpen. And Tidwell may be a better option as a back-end starter right now than Carson Whisenhunt. While Whisenhunt has a great changeup, he's largely a two-pitch lefty with a sinker as a fastball, meaning he's still searching for an arsenal that works against both hands. He also doesn't throw really hard. Tidwell sits 96 on the fastball with a four-pitch mix and needs to prove his command is good enough to start. They might just throw him in the mix right away.
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He's already been playing for the Marlins, but Hernandez may now get everyday playing time with Jesús Sánchez in Houston. Hernandez has plus bat speed and makes good swing decisions, but also swings and misses quite a bit. Don't believe his current batting average, but could he still put up a .320-ish OBP with 25-30 homer power and a handful of steals? Yes, yes he could.
He's only 22 and just got to Triple A, but Jensen has acquitted himself with the bat at every level while improving his defense. Law's fourth-ranked catcher is now a 'solid-average defender,' in Law's words. He may not hit for a great average but he features power and patience and it might be his turn now that Freddy Fermin has left town.
Santana is a professional, and can probably close games for the Pirates for a bit now that David Bednar is a Yankee. But with the injury history in Braxton Ashcraft's rear-view mirror, and the stuff the younger righty has been showing, there may be a future for Ashcraft in closing long-term. And the Pirates need to think long-term, too. But for now, Santana is likely to get the save calls.
(Top photo of Mayo: Greg Fiume / Getty Images)