Tropical Storm Alvin brewing in the eastern Pacific Ocean
"Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized near a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico," the National Hurricane Center said in a Tropical Weather Outlook from May 27.
"While the system currently lacks a well-defined circulation, environmental conditions are favorable for further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form during the next day or two as the low moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph," the hurricane center said.
The center gives the system a 90% chance of development.
Hello, Tropical Storm Alvin?
If it becomes a named system, it would be called Alvin - the first named tropical cyclone anywhere in the Northern Hemisphere this year.
As a refresher, a tropical depression becomes a named storm when its sustained wind speed reaches 39 mph.
An early start to the season
The average date for the first tropical storm of the eastern Pacific season is June 10, according to the National Hurricane Center.
"If a storm forms soon, it would be well ahead of the historical pace - and much earlier than last year's first storm. In 2024, Aletta didn't form until July 4, marking the latest start to an eastern Pacific hurricane season in the satellite era," said AccuWeather meteorologist Alex Sosnowski.
Below-average hurricane season expected in eastern Pacific
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in a seasonal hurricane forecast released May 22, said that a below-average eastern Pacific hurricane season is most likely. An average season sees 15 named storms.
Eastern Pacific storms and hurricanes primarily stay out to sea and seldom affect the U.S. mainland, although some storms do hit the west coast of Mexico and remnant moisture from the storms can affect the U.S. Southwest.
(This story has been updated to add new information.)
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