World needs 10,500 sub-150-seat jets, turborprops in next 20 years: Embraer
In its Market Outlook 2025w, the global aerospace company estimates 10,500 orders for new jets and turboprops through 2044.
It also presents analyses of global influences and trends in seven world regions that impact the demand for new aircraft.
"Because of its growing prominence in commercial aviation, statistics for China are detailed separately in this year's market outlook for the first time," it said.
The report noted that world passenger traffic, measured in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK) is forecast to grow 3.9 per cent annually through 2044.
"China will lead among seven global regions," it said.
Embraer president and chief executive officer of commercial aviation Arjan Meijer attributes the consistency of the estimate to the longevity of social, supply chain, and geopolitical trends Embraer identified during the pandemic.
"Five years after the onset of the pandemic, many of the structural changes it triggered have proven to be quite long lasting.
"In our first post-pandemic market outlook, we highlighted the transition from globalisation to a more polarised geopolitical outlook," he said.
Today, as countries and regions pursue greater strategic autonomy, Meijer said the demand for regional access will continue to grow.
He said the company believes mixed fleets that combine small and large narrowbody aircraft are essential for that long-term growth.
"They provide the versatility needed to better match capacity with demand, expand networks, and support national and regional development goals," he added.
The market outlook also analyzes demand for cargo aircraft, including a forecast for passenger- to-freighter conversions.
The overall forecast for the number of new sub-150-seat aircraft remains almost unchanged from Embraer's previous estimate.
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