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Business Insider
an hour ago
- Business Insider
5 reasons Wall Street is in chill mode
Stock markets are shrugging off major risks and smashing records — so much so that even seasoned investors are scratching their heads. On Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 closed little changed after notching record highs on Thursday. Both indexes are hovering near the all-time highs they reached earlier this month, continuing a rebound after the post-"Liberation Day" sell-off. That rebound has stunned analysts, given the pile-up of macro risks, particularly President Donald Trump's ongoing threats to impose steep tariffs on key trading partners. Yet investors keep piling in — even if many are doing so with one eye on the exit. "In many ways, this is a rally that really no one's had much conviction in it," Andrew Pease, the Asia Pacific head of investments for Russell Investments, told Business Insider. He said the firm's analysis shows investors are neutral, not euphoric. "Everyone's very wary about this particular rally," Pease said. Wall Street veterans have spent months warning that investors may be underestimating the risks. "Unfortunately, I think there is complacency in the markets," JPMorgan Chase's CEO, Jamie Dimon, said earlier in July, referring to tariffs. Those concerns may soon be put to the test. Trump's proposed levies on trading partners — ranging from 10% to 70% — threaten to disrupt supply chains, fuel inflation, and slow global growth. "I think the market is too complacent about the damage of such high tariffs on both the US and the global economy," said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. It's not just tariffs that suggest trouble could be brewing. China's economic slowdown, Middle East tensions, and softening US data all suggest trouble could be brewing. So why are stocks still surging? 1. The US economy still looks resilient Despite inflationary concerns tied to Trump's tariff threats, the US economy remains on solid footing. As BI's Jennifer Sor recently reported, recession fears are fading. Big banks kicked off earnings season on a strong note last week. The consumer "basically seems to be fine," JPMorgan's chief financial officer, Jeremy Barnum, said on an earnings call on July 15. That's despite some cracks in the data. US GDP contracted 0.5% in the third quarter, and consumer spending growth slowed to 0.5% in Q1 — down sharply from 4% in Q4 2024. But retail sales rose 0.6% in June from May and the job market remains robust. The US added 147,000 jobs in June, well above expectations, while unemployment dipped to 4.1% from 4.2%. American consumers are, as top CEOs said recently, "a little numb" to tariffs and "very resilient," even as inflation ticks up. 2. Betting on the TACO trade Some investors are leaning on the "TACO trade" — short for "Trump Always Chickens Out." Markets are increasingly assuming that Trump's tariff threats are more talk than action. "Finally, the market is not wrong in pricing in a good chance that Trump will not follow through with his latest tariff threats, instead settling for some deal by 1 August," wrote Davide Oneglia, the director of European and global macro at Global Lombard, on July 16, referring to the trade deadline. Daniela Sabin Hathorn, senior market analyst at agreed: "The prevailing view among investors seems to be that these tariff threats are more bark than bite — a negotiating tactic rather than a firm policy stance." That's created what analysts call "asymmetry:" Markets could keep rising if talks go well, but they are vulnerable to sharp corrections if discussions break down. 3. FOMO + MOMO = a runaway rally Even as risks loom, traders don't want to miss out. That's fueling what analysts describe as a combination of FOMO, or fear of missing out, and MOMO, or momentum-based trading. Retail traders have been jumping back in, chasing gains as indexes push higher, even if they missed the earlier run-up. "MOMO and FOMO" are likely to dominate until proven otherwise," wrote Steve Sosnick, the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, in a June 30 note. "Newton's First Law applies: A body (market) that is in motion will stay in motion until acted upon by an external source," he added. Sosnick said that implied volatility remains low, even as risks mount, suggesting investors are choosing to look past potential trouble. Pease at Russell Investments agreed that momentum could unravel quickly — but only if there's a clear macro shock. 4. Fed cuts are back on the table The Federal Reserve has signaled it could cut rates another two times this year — a boon for stocks. Lower rates reduce bond yields, making equities more attractive. They also encourage borrowing and investment. But rising inflation could complicate that path. In June, US inflation climbed 2.7% from a year ago, up from 2.4% in May. Dimon warned that the Fed might still hike if inflation proves sticky. He sees a 40% to 50% chance of another increase this cycle. 5. AI continues to power tech gains AI hype continues to drive the market, especially Big Tech. "AI is still the dominant theme, particularly as the Big Tech companies are giving solid earnings guidance and other companies are joining in as well, then that's the world in which you could see that this rally has further to go," Pease said, while cautioning that gains could become overdone. Bank of America's latest global fund manager survey, published July 15, shows 40% of respondents already see productivity gains from AI adoption. Another 21% expect gains within the next year. Caution still lingers Despite the optimism, there's unease under the surface. Summer trading is thinner, meaning volatility can spike quickly. Last year's yen carry trade unwind is a fresh reminder that things can turn fast. Trump's tariff threats are still on the table, but Oneglia thinks markets are right to be relatively unfazed. "Negotiations have not broken down and the market is acting rationally — at least on this," Oneglia wrote. Still, others are more cautious. "Ultimately, markets are at a crossroads," wrote Hathorn. "The rally, particularly in US equities, has been driven by optimism and underpinned by assumptions about political behavior." Until August, market asymmetry remains, so there's "room to rise on good news, but the potential for a swift and severe correction if trade tensions escalate," Hathorn added.
CNBC
2 hours ago
- CNBC
CNBC Daily Open: Solid earnings beats might mask tariff volatility these two weeks
Friday, Aug. 1 — the "hard deadline" of U.S. President Donald Trump's updated tariffs — is less than two weeks away. Investors, however, seem mostly unbothered thus far. For last week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped marginally, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rose 0.6% and 1.5% respectively. Even a report that Trump wanted a minimum of 15%-20% tariffs on the European Union only dealt a minimal blow to markets, which mostly closed unchanged Friday. Although those figures are higher than the universal 10% baseline tariff Trump reportedly wanted — and which the EU is hoping to secure — they are still lower than the 30% Trump said he will impose on the bloc in his July 12 letter. An upbeat start to earnings season has alsohelped to quell tariff fears for now. Around 83% of the S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings have exceeded expectations, according to FactSet data. In particular, big banks such as JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, which serve as barometers for economic activity, had solid beats, boosting investor sentiment. Next in the spotlight are Big Tech earnings, which will be released in the weeks right before Aug. better than expected, they might dispel geopolitical jitters — or cause investors to dismiss trade fears too readily. In these stormy times, every silver lining has a dark cloud. Aug. 1 is a 'hard deadline' for new tariffs. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that the tariffs will take effect next month, but left open the possibility of continuing trade negotiations after the date. Trump wants a minimum tariff of 15%-20% on the EU. The Financial Times, which cited three people briefed on trade talks between the U.S. and the bloc, reported the news Friday. The European Union had been hoping for a deal similar to the U.K.'s. Scott Bessent reportedly urged Trump not to fire Jerome Powell. However, the U.S. president denied a Wall Street Journal report that Bessent had warned him about the potential economic, political and legal consequences of dismissing the Federal Reserve Chair. U.S. stock futures are little changed Sunday stateside. On Friday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite closed around the flatline. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, lost 0.32%. The Stoxx Europe 600 was mostly unchanged. [PRO] The Magnificent Seven are due to report earnings. Alphabet and Tesla will announce their second-quarter financial results Wednesday. If they top the results that investors are expecting, markets could receive a boost. '30% is untenable': From Irish whiskey to Italian cheese, Trump's tariff threat rattles EU exporters Along the "last road in Ireland," on the country's rugged west coast, June O'Connell's business Skellig Six18 makes gin and whiskey — a time-intensive process guided by the wind, rain and cool temperatures that roll in year-round off the Atlantic. America was a natural target market once their first spirits were ready to sell in 2019, according to O'Connell, given its strong familiarity with Ireland and big appetite for premium drinks. Her first products left County Kerry in November 2023 for a U.S. launch in early 2024. Then the political tide started turning in the White House.
CNBC
5 hours ago
- CNBC
Stock futures are little changed as traders await big tech earnings, eye trade developments: Live updates
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, U.S., July 15, 2025. Jeenah Moon | Reuters U.S. stock futures were little changed Sunday night as investors tracked the latest developments on trade, and awaited the start of big tech earnings this week. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 18 points, or 0.04%. S&P 500 futures gained 0.02%, while Nasdaq 100 futures traded flat. Trade was once again in focus as the White House reiterated its position on tariffs. On Sunday, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick called Aug. 1 the "hard deadline" for countries to start paying tariffs, though he also added that "nothing stops countries from talking to us after August 1." Wall Street is coming off a winning week for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, both of which continued to notch all-time highs. The S&P 500 ended the week higher by 0.6%, while the Nasdaq climbed 1.5%. The Dow ended the week slightly lower. The moves come on the heels of a solid start to earnings season. Of the 59 S&P 500 companies that have reported thus far, more than 86% have topped expectations, according to FactSet data. The major averages could receive a boost in the week ahead if Alphabet and Tesla — the first of the so-called Magnificent Seven companies set to report — manage to beat estimates. The megacaps are expected to be a major driver of earnings growth during the second-quarter earnings season. FactSet's John Butters expects the Magnificent Seven will post earnings growth of 14% in the second quarter, while the other 493 S&P 500 companies are seen posting growth of just 3.4%. "We're at an all time high for the [S&P 500] right at the beginning of earnings season," said Mark Malek, investment chief at Siebert Financial, adding, "If we can get through this earnings season with not too many major failures, I think that is really, really important at this point, if we want to continue this upward momentum that we have in the market." On the economic front, the June reading for leading indicators, which are predictive metrics for the overall market and economy, is scheduled for release on Monday at 10 a.m. ET. Verizon Communications and Domino's Pizza are among the companies set to report earnings Monday. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday that Aug. 1 is the deadline for countries to begin paying tariffs to the United States, but said that "nothing stops countries from talking to us after August 1." "That's a hard deadline, so on August 1, the new tariff rates will come in," Lutnick said on CBS News, when asked about the deadline for his tariffs on the European Union. President Donald Trump's tariff deadline has shifted since he announced his steep levies on trading partners on April 2, but White House officials now maintain that Aug. 1 is a firm deadline. "Nothing stops countries from talking to us after August 1, but they're going to start paying the tariffs on August 1," Lutnick said. — Erin Doherty, Sarah Min Stock futures opened little changed Sunday night. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell by 18 points, or 0.04%. S&P 500 futures gained 0.02%, while Nasdaq 100 futures traded flat. — Sarah Min
